R&D in the FY 2016 Budget Request

Matt HourihanMarch 23, 2015for the Congressional R&D Caucus

AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program

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90%

100%

Trends in Total World R&Din percentage of world R&D normalized by PPP

Other World

Taiwan

Russia

China

South Korea

J apan

Other EU

France

UK

Germany

US

Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators, Feb. 2015. World = OECD members plus Argentina, China, Israel, Romania, Russian Federation, Singapore, Taiwan. Calculated using purchasing power parities. © 2015 AAAS

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3.5

4.0

4.5

National R&D IntensityGross R&D investment as a percent of GDP

South Korea

Finland

Japan

Taiwan

Germany

U.S.

France

EU-28

China

UK

Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators 2015. © 2015 AAAS

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0.8

Basic Research IntensityTotal basic research as a percent of GDP

South Korea

France

Japan

Taiwan

Russia

UK

China

United States

Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators, Feb 2015. © 2015 AAAS

Compared to the rest of the OECD, the U.S.…

is a university juggernaut (thanks to scale) is a leader in quality publications (thanks to scale)

is somewhat more oriented around public lab funding is far more oriented around defense R&D is around OECD median in university/lab patenting dollar for

dollar

Features relatively more intense industrial R&D, industry dynamism

Generally has a more positive view of the contributions of S&T

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0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

R&D as a Share of GDP by Funder

Total Federal Industry Other

Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Research as a Share of GDP by Funder

Total Research Federal Research Industry Research Other

Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS

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0.25%

0.30%

1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Federal Research Funding by Disciplineas a Share of GDP, 1978-2014

Life Sci

Physical Sci

Engineering

Environ Sci

Math / Comp

Social Sciences

Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. FY 2013 and 2014 are preliminary. GDP figures are from OMB. © 2015 AAAS

0.00%

0.05%

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0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

0.45%

University R&D as a Share of GDP by Source

Total Federal State and Local Industry Institution funds All other

Source: NSF, Higher Education R&D survey series, and GDP data from OMB. Includes Recovery Act funding. © 2015 AAAS

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100%

University R&D Funding by Source

Other Sources Institutional Funds Industry State and Local Federal

Source: NSF, Higher Education R&D survey series. Includes Recovery Act funding. © 2015 AAAS

-40.3%

-20.5%

-14.2%

-10.6%

-9.7%

-7.3%

19.1%

51.3%

52.7%

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Transportation

Defense Activities

Agriculture

Health (NIH)

Environment Agencies

NASA Budget*

General Science (NSF, DOE SC)

Commerce (NIST)

Applied Energy Programs

R&D Change by Budget Function, 2005-2015Percent change from FY 2005 in constant dollars

*NASA has changed its R&D reporting and classifications multiple times over the years. Total agency budget is shown here rather than R&D.Source: AAAS analysis of historical data and current R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other budget documents. Select DHS programs changed functions over the years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability. © 2015 AAAS

Defense Discretionary

$528 [Defense R&D]$77

Nondefense Discretionary

$495

[Nondefense R&D]$69

Social Security$938

Medicare$583

Medicaid$351

Other Mandatory$670

Net Interest$283

Composition of the Proposed FY 2016 BudgetTotal Outlays = $4.0 trillion

outlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2016. Projected deficit is $474 billion. © 2015 AAAS

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80%

Composition of the Federal BudgetOutlays as share of total budget, 1962 - 2016

Payments toIndividuals

All Other

Defense (non-R&D)

Investments(research, edu,infrastructure)

Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2016. "Investments" include outlays for R&D, education and training, direct nondefense infrastructure, and other grants, primarily for transportation. "Payments to Individuals" are primarily entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, but also include many other public assistance programs. © 2015 AAAS

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline

BCA: Sequester Baseline Current Law

President's FY 2016 Budget

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

6.4%

-35.5%0.9%

2.2%

5.0%

8.1%

12.6%

17.8%

20.5%

23.3%

44.8%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

TOTAL

Justice (DHS)

Space

Health (includes NIH)

General Science (NSF, DOE SC)

Defense Activities

Environment Agencies

Transportation

Agriculture

Applied Energy Programs

Commerce (includes NIST)

FY16 R&D in the Base Budget by Functionpercent change from FY 2015, nominal dollars

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. © 2015 AAAS

DOD, $71.9

HHS (NIH), $31.0

DOE, $12.5

NASA, $12.2

NSF, $6.3

USDA, $2.9

Commerce, $2.1All Other, $6.2

Total R&D by Agency, FY 2016budget authority in billions of dollars

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2015 AAAS

Total R&D = $145.3 billion

Major Funding Priorities for FY16 Advanced Manufacturing Low-carbon energy Climate research and earth observation Agricultural R&D Infrastructure R&D Antibiotic Resistance* Precision Medicine* Discovery Science:

Life sciences and neuroscience Advanced computing

COMPETES Agencies R&D: $12.1 billion, +6.6%

*New for FY16

National Institutes of Health $1 billion increase (+3.3%) Largest relative increases:

Alzheimer’s research, translational science

New initiatives: Antibiotic Resistance: $100

million for NIAID $200 million for Precision

Medicine

Large increase for Big Data BRAIN Initiative contribution

increases to $135 million Success rate: 19.3%

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Figure 1: NIH Budget(Constant 2015 dollars in billions)

ARRA Funding General Med SciCancer NIAIDHeart Lung Blood NIDDKMental Health All Other

Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebola-related fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS

-30%

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5%

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15%

National Institutes of Health Obligations, 2003-2014Percent change since FY03, adjusted for BRDPI

Source: Historical obligations data and BRDPI deflators from the NIH budget office. © 2015 AAAS

NIH Total

Most individual ICs fall within this band

NIAID

National Science Foundation Total Budget: +5.2% Highest relative changes:

SBE: +7.1% Engineering: +6.4%

EHR: +11.2% New priority areas: Food-

water-energy; climate resilience

Several other cross-agency initiatives boosted

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6%

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8%

CISE ENG GEO BIO SBE MPS

AverageRequest SinceFY10*

FY 2016Request

Past and Current NSF Budgets by DirectorateNominal percentage increase

*Excludes FY12 and FY14, years for which the request was formulated before appropriations were finalized. Source: AAAS analysis of past and current NSF budget data. © 2015 AAAS

Energy Technology offices: renewed

focus on efficiency, renewables, ARPA-E, smart grid, CCS Manufacturing office to

double

DOE Science: +5.4% Advanced Computing:

+14.8% Domestic fusion research cut

15% ITER flat

Small boost for EFRCS; Hubs funding continues

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$2,000

DOE Office of Science BudgetsBudget Authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars

Adv Sci Comp Basic Energy Sci

Bio Env Res Fusion Energy

High-Energy Phys Nuclear Phys

Source: Historical DOE budget data and FY16 request.© 2015 AAAS

-15%

-10%

-5%

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5%

10%

15%

ASCR BES Nuclear BER HEP Fusion

AverageRequest SinceFY10*

FY 2016Request

Past and Current DOE SC Budgets by ProgramNominal percentage increase

Excludes FY12 and FY14, years for which the request was formulated before appropriations were finalized. Source: AAAS analysis of past and current DOE Office of Science budget data. © 2015 AAAS

National Security DOD S&T, DARPA flat 8.3% cut to basic research

NNSA: cuts to nonproliferation R&D, select RDT&E accounts

DHS: NBAF funding completed; moderate cuts elsewhere in S&T Directorate

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Trends in DOD Science & Technologyin billions of constant FY 2015 dollars

ARRA Medical researchAdv Tech (6.3) Applied (6.2)Basic (6.1)

Source: DOD R-1 and historical data. Medical Research is appropriated outside RDT&E title. © 2015 AAAS

Advanced Manufacturing National Network of Manufacturing Innovation proposal revived

Discretionary / mandatory mix NIST Labs also boosted across an array of areas

EERE: Advanced Manufacturing office doubled NSF: CEMMSS cross-agency initiative boosted

Climate and Environment NOAA Office of Research: Major (~20%) boost for climate research

Elsewhere at NOAA: planned decreases for GOES-R, JPSS to make room for Polar Follow-On

USGS: +14%, focus on climate resilience NASA Earth Science boost

“The 2016 Budget redefines NASA and NOAA Earth observing satellite responsibilities to leverage NASA Earth Science’s expertise in developing Earth-observing satellites while allowing NOAA to focus its development efforts on its weather satellites and weather forecasting mission. Under the new framework, NOAA will be responsible only for satellite missions that contribute directly to NOAA’s ability to issue weather and space weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property. NASA will be responsible for other nondefense Earth-observing satellite missions.”

EPA S&T moderately increased

NASA Total budget: +2.9%

6.1% below FY05 levels

Familiar contours: Earth Science, Space Technology,

Commercial Crew program boosted Cuts to Planetary Science,

Astrophysics Exploration Systems Development,

Aeronautics funding reduced

Since FY10: Earth Sci +22.6% Planetary -9.6% Astrophys -0.7% Webb +28.1% Heliophys -2.9%

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$4

$8

$12

$16

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ARRA OtherExploration Systems Space OperationsSpace Technology AeronauticsScience

NASA Budget, FY 2007 - 2016in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars

"Other" includes support, construction, OIG, and education programs. © 2015 AAAS

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

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2%

4%

6%

8%

Earth Science JWST Heliophysics PlanetaryScience

Astrophysics

AverageRequest SinceFY10*

FY 2016Request

Past and Current NASA SMD Budgets by ProgramNominal percentage increase

Excludes FY12 and FY14, years for which the request was formulated before appropriations were finalized. Source: AAAS analysis of past and current DOE Office of Science budget data. © 2015 AAAS

Agriculture AFRI Increased to $450 million

(+38.5%) ARS receives $200 million

injection for facilities Two new innovation institutes:

biomanufacturing and nanocellulosics

$77 million total for antibiotic resistance research

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$3.5

USDA R&D, FY 2000-2016in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars

ARRA Forest Service

Nat'l Inst Food Agr Econ Res Service

Agr Res Service Other

Source: AAAS R&D reports, agency budget documents, and appropriations reports. © 2015 AAAS

-30.8%

-15.4%

-10.1%

-6.1%

-0.4%

1.7%

23.0%

85.3%

115.8%

-45% -25% -5% 15% 35% 55% 75% 95% 115% 135%

Transportation

Defense Activities

Health (includes NIH)

NASA Budget*

Environment Agencies

Agriculture

General Science (NSF, DOE SC)

Applied Energy Programs

Commerce (includes NIST)

R&D Change by Budget Function,FY 2005 - FY 2016PBRPercent change from FY 2005 in constant dollars

*NASA has changed its R&D reporting and classifications multiple times over the years. Total agency budget is shown here rather than R&D.Source: AAAS analysis of historical data and current R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other budget documents. Select DHS programs changed functions over the years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability. © 2015 AAAS

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester BaselineActual Base Budget Authority Current Law (Sequester Levels)President's FY 2016 Budget House BudgetSenate Budget

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015

$470

$490

$510

$530

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$570

$590

$610

Limits on Defense Spending Base billions of constant 2015 dollars

BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester BaselineActual Base Budget Authority Current Law (Sequester Levels)President's FY 2016 Budget House BudgetSenate Budget

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from FY16 request. Does not include war funding. © AAAS 2015

$400

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Limits on Nondefense Spending Basebillions of constant 2015 dollars

BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester BaselineActual Base Budget Authority Current Law (Sequester Levels)President's FY 2016 Budget House BudgetSenate Budget

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

3. agency notes R&D STEM

For more info…

mhouriha@aaas.org

202-326-6607

http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program