ray dalio harvard presentation
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Ray Dalio Harvard PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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One Glendinning PlaceWestport, CT 06880
(203) 226-3030www.bwater.com
September 13, 2010
Ray DalioPresident & Chief Investment Officer
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If you’re talented, don’t go into a business in which the macro environment will determine your success.
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What each decade is like is determined by the excesses of the prior decade.
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If you can understand the linkages and not get carried away by the excitements of the times, you can
maneuver strategically.
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Whenever there's a boom and debts are rising faster than incomes, a bust will follow.
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Governments will always choose to print money rather than tighten their belts, if the pain of debt gets bad
enough.
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Whatever career has the highest percentage increase in HBS grads going to it is probably headed for trouble.
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You can’t chase the good things – you have to be ahead of them or early on their waves.
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Whenever economic conditions are extremely one way and most people are sure that they will continue, they
will probably reverse.
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The most common mistake of investing is to assume that investments that had the highest returns over the past
few years are the best investments rather than they have become expensive.
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INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES
A portfolio is nothing more than the weighted average of its return streams.
There are only 2 types of return streams: Alphas and Betas.
You need to have a well thought out game plan that is based on knowing what your return streams are like and knowing how to combine them.
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1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Number of Assets/Alphas in Portfolio
Annu
al P
ortfo
lio S
tand
ard
Dev
iatio
n
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
60% correlation
40% correlation
20% correlation
10% correlation
0% correlation
Return-to-Risk Ratio
0.25
0.28
0.31
0.36
0.42
0.50
0.63
0.83
1.25
2.50
Probability of Losing
Money in a Given Year
40%
39%
38%
36%
34%
31%
26%
20%
11%
1%
15 UNCORRELATED RETURN STREAMS – THE HOLY GRAIL OF INVESTING
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Our Alpha
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-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 110%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Inflation/ Unemployment Pressure T-Bill Rate
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11
Cumulative Profit
Avg Annual Ret: 3.7%Std Dev: 5.3%Ratio: 0.70
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 100%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%Inflation/ UnemploymentT-Bill Rate
Please refer to Note 1 for relevant disclosures. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING OR THE COSTS OF MANAGING THE PORTFOLIO. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER OR OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
DECISION RULES ARE CONVERTED INTO RETURN STREAMS
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-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
80 84 88 92 96 00
Average Alpha = 0.14%
US Yield Curve Cum Return
-0.25%0.00%0.25%0.50%0.75%1.00%1.25%1.50%1.75%2.00%
80 84 88 92 96 00
US Bond Diff Cum Return
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
80 84 88 92 96 00
Nominal vs IL Cum Return Swiss Franc vs Euro
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
80 84 88 92 96 00
Average Alpha = 0.09%
CHF vs EUR Cum Return
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02
US Bond Indicator Cum Return
Aus Bond Diff Indicator Cum Return
-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Aus Equity Indicator Cum Return
Opportunistic EMD Indicator Cum Return
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
Aus - UK Equity Diff Cum Return
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02
Copper Indicator Cum Return
-10%
10%30%
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02
JPY/USD Indicator Cum Return
-10%0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03
IL Indicator Cum Return
Please refer to Note 2 for relevant disclosures
COMBINE UNCORRELATED RETURN STREAMS
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Our Beta
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Please refer to Note 3 for relevant disclosures.
CONVENTIONAL ASSET RETURN/RISK PERSPECTIVE
Expected Rates of Return For Various Asset Classes
Real Estate
Non-U.S.Equities
U.S.Equities
Non-USFixed Income
(Hedged)
High Yield Debt
Core US Fixed IncomeCash
Inflation Linked Bonds
Emerging MarketDebt
EmergingEquities
PrivateEquity
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Expected Risk
Expe
cted
Tot
al R
etur
n
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Please refer to Note 3 for relevant disclosures.
RISK-ADJUSTED RETURNS
Leverage-Adjusted Expected Excess Returns (Standardized to the Risk Level of the S&P 500)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%C
ore
US
Fixe
d In
com
e
Infla
tion
Link
ed B
onds
Hig
h Yi
eld
Deb
t
Non
-US
Fixe
d In
com
e(H
edge
d)
Emer
ging
Mar
ket D
ebt
U.S
. Equ
ities
Non
-U.S
. Equ
ities
Emer
ging
Equ
ities
Priv
ate
Equi
ty
Rea
l Est
ate
Asset Class
Expe
cted
Exc
ess
Ret
urn
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Please refer to Note 4 for relevant disclosures.
GROWTH INFLATION
RISING
FALLING
BALANCE RISK (NOT CAPITAL) EQUALLY ACROSS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTS
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The Economy: How it Works & What it Looks Like Now
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My Template
• Long-term Productivity Growth• Long-term Debt Cycle• Business Cycles
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Source: Global Financial Data Inc. and Bridgewater Analysis.
LONG RUN GROWTH DRIVEN BY INCREASES IN PRODUCTIVITYReal GDP per Capita (2008 dollars, ln)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10
2.7%
0.8%
1.9%
0.2%
4.1%2.4%
3.0%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
0.7%
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WE HAVE REACHED OUR DEBT LIMITS
USA Total Debt %GDP
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
60 Year Credit Expansion
Source: Global Financial Data Inc. and Bridgewater Analysis.
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
USA 3m Interest Rate
1982
Hard landing
Hard landing
Source: Global Financial Data Inc. and Bridgewater Analysis.
THE SECULAR FALL IN INTEREST RATES KEPT DEBT SERVICE STABLE
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20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 100%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
USA Household Debt % Disposable Income USA Household Interest Payments % Disposable Income
1982
Source: Global Financial Data Inc. and Bridgewater Analysis.
DEBT LEVELS ROSE RAPIDLY WHILE DEBT SERVICE DID NOT
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MASSIVE PRINTING OF MONEY
US M0 as % of NGDP
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
PRINTING
Source: Global Financial Data Inc. and Bridgewater Analysis.
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Source: Global Financial Data Inc. and Bridgewater Analysis.
US Federal Budget Surplus as a % of NGDP
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
even bigger deficit
wartime deficit goes to -30%
BIG BUDGET DEFICITS
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FISCAL AND MONETARY STIMULATIONS ARE OVER
Developed World Purchases of Financial Assets (annualized) %PGDP
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
United States Trailing 3 Month Growth Impact from Stimulus (%PGDP)
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
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THERE ARE TWO WORLDS
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Developed World Industrial Production (GDP-w eighted)
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Emerging Market Industrial Production (GDP-w eighted)
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SECULAR IMBALANCES HAVE NOT CHANGED
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Creditor Countries (const. basket) Curr Acct % NGDP Debtor Countries (const. basket) Curr Acct % NGDP
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Appendix
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Our Principles • People and culture• Truth and excellence at all costs
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…Allow pain to stand in the way of their progress.
…Understand how to manage pain to produce progress.
BAD
GOOD
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…Avoid facing “harsh realities.”
…Face “harsh realities.”
BAD
GOOD
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…Worry about appearing good.
…Worry about achieving the goal.
BAD
GOOD
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…Make their decisions on the basisof first‐order consequences.
…Make their decisions on the basis of first‐, second‐
and third‐order
consequences.
BAD
GOOD
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…Don’t hold themselves accountable.
…Hold themselves accountable.
BAD
GOOD
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Disclosures
Please read the following notes and disclosures as they provide important information and context for the research and performance presented herein. Additional information is available upon request except where the proprietary nature of the information precludes its dissemination.
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NOTESNote 1 : This slide is meant to show an example of how Bridgewater’s active market views are formulated and is purely for illustrative purposes. The charts are not intended to reflect what actual Bridgewater valuation, signals, and performance were during the periods outlined. Charts are created using backtesting of a portion of Bridgewater’s systems.
Note 2 : For illustrative purposes only. The example does not necessarily indicate the actual historical or current implementation of Bridgewater’s strategies. Markets listed may or may not be currently traded and are subject to change without notice.
Note 3 : Based on return and risk expectations from an independent study by Rocaton, a third party consultant.
Note 4 : For illustrative purposes only. The example does not necessarily indicate the actual historical or current implementation of Bridgewater’s strategies.
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Research/Outlook Disclosure:This research is based on Bridgewater Associates, LP proprietary research and analysis of global markets and investing. Bridgewater research utilizes (in whole and in part) data and information from public, private, and internal sources. Some internally generated information may be considered theoretical in nature and is subject to inherent limitations associated therein. External sources include the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, National Bureau of Economic Research, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, U.S. Department of Commerce, as well as information companies such as Bloomberg Finance L.P., CEIC Data Company Ltd., Emerging Portfolio Fund Research, Inc., Global Financial Data, Inc., Global Trade Information Services, Inc., Markit Economics Limited, Mergent, Inc., MSCI, Standard and Poor’s, Thomson Reuters, TrimTabs Investment Research, Inc. and Wood Mackenzie Limited. While we consider information from external sources to be reliable, we do not assume responsibility for its accuracy.
The views expressed are solely those of Bridgewater Associates, LP and are subject to change without notice. Reasonable people may disagree. You should assume that Bridgewater Associates, LP has a significant financial interest in one or more of the positions and/or securities or derivatives discussed. Bridgewater Associates, LP employees may have long or short positions in and buy or sell securities or derivatives referred to in this research. Those responsible for preparing this research receive compensation based upon various factors, including, among other things, the quality of their work and firm revenues.
The research in this presentation is for informational and educational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors. Investors should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, where appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. Investment decisions should not be based solely on simulated, hypothetical or illustrative information. The price and value of the investments referred to in this research and the income therefrom may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments.
Bridgewater Associates has no obligation to provide recipients hereof with updates or changes to such data. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of Bridgewater ® Associates, LP.