raport aurora 2015_eng

PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT

EUROPE

R O M A N I A

A R A D T I M I

REPORT 2015 - AURORATM

AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 1

Motivation

The idea of this project showed up due to the lack of transparency and information, in general, which we felt in developing our current works, of our lives.

Restricting or limiting the access to information with public character, the unilateral biased presentation of the information becoming public are major barriers in forming

and justifying some opinions and/ or decisions and may have a catastrophic impact for the future projects of the communities or investments.

Vision

All citizens must have access to real information concerning the stage and the

perspectives of communities development they live or where they invest.

Mission

AURORA performs studies, analyses and economic and social prognoses, up to community level, in the benefit of the citizens and of the investors.

What have we done?

Until this year, we have worked only in the WESTERN region of Romania, the counties

of Arad and Timis, area which we present in detail in this Report.

Starting 2016 we intend to expand the AURORA project area of action, in order to

cover also other regions of Romania, Hungary and Serbia, or other areas (applying a specific method of analyse, developed by AURORA), so that our studies and materials could provide a better image on the state and likely evolution of these regions.

In this regard, we wait for your answer to continue these activities we have been performing in your benefit as well. If you are interested in cooperation with AURORA,

reading this report, you may find our contact on the last page.

What do we want?

Performing a proper analyse on the potential of the region development, which allows for

realistic analyses and probable predictions, ensures traceability and a proper justification

of the investments decisions;

Issuing a vision based on research and analyse (and not on opinions). Identifying the

natural trends of evolution (of the society of the market) and of the sources for growth. Direction towards scenarios of economic and area communities growth by increasing the

efficiencies and specific outputs for the transformation processes;

Developing the private, entrepreneurial initiative, in parallel with the development of large

investment in the centres for regional development and of really efficient and fruitful

cooperation with the research Institutes and governments in the area;

Establishing partnerships, associations, clusters and associations of clusters and the know-

how transfer. Associations and services for clusters management, establishment of

mutual, regional development projects;

Balanced growth of the life quality in the regions, considering as important as the

economic aspect, the issues concerning the education, the culture, the environment

protection and preservation, the healthcare and public safety services.


The AURORA Method

We start from the hypothesis that the natural law applies to all fields of its expressions, and

the economic and the social ones are natural systems up to a reasonable limit for study.

Consequently, we consider three major areas, defining the communities status and evolution, respectively the Environment, the

Society and the System of Changes, each area being governed by natural specific laws.

All three systems behave as open systems which win-lose/ exchange energy, material and information between each other.

They are interdependent, and cannot be conceived beyond the flows of materials,

energy and information which occur between them, resulting in the accumulation or loss of their quantities.

A. The Environment will keep its state where it is or will evolve naturally,

uniformly, in the absence of the anthropic interventions.

B. The changes, the movements of the Environment system depend on the

quantities of exploited Resources and on their exploitation intensity and speed.

C. The changes, the movements of an Environment-like subsystem will influence

the subsystems with which they get in contact, just like those subsystems with

which gets in contact will affect the given subsystem.

With regard to the relations and lawfulness according to which the changes of the Social system take place regarding the other two, the Wardrops principles (from the game theory) are adjustable:

1. Each entity (from individual to community) will seek to minimize its costs/

efforts and to maximise its earnings/ effects (competition);

2. If all individuals cooperate (organised community) the average costs / efforts

are minimal and the average earnings/ effects are maximal (cohesion).

In addition, the following are checked in the Social system: A. In invariable external conditions, the Social system tends to a state of balance

in a reasonable timeframe.

B. If the Social system is isolated from other external Social systems, the energies

inside it shall preserve themselves regardless on the internal changes occurred

by the system.

C. Only the more developed and organised Social systems influence those feebly

developed and organised and not the opposite.

D. In the absence of the cultural factors, the systems are in perfect balance.

Consequently, depending on the internal decisions of the Social system, on the chosen ways of organisation, the exchanges with the two other systems may be optimised

and are predictable. Such a local or regional system may be comprised by other wider systems, eventually hierarchically organised.


Contents

PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPE ............................................... 4

The Natural Potential ....................................................................................... 4

The Demographic Situation .............................................................................. 9

Economic Sizes ............................................................................................. 12

Conclusion ................................................................................................... 14

PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT IN ROMANIA .......................................... 15

Socioeconomic levels .................................................................................. 15

The status of the Environment subsystem ........................................................ 17

The Status of the Social Subsystem ................................................................. 21

The status of the Economic subsystem ............................................................. 26

Conclusions .................................................................................................. 29

Brief Presentation WEST Region ............................................................... 31

DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVES IN ARAD and TIMIS ..................................... 32

The Status of the Environment Subsystem ....................................................... 32

Status of the Social Subsystem ....................................................................... 35

The Status of the Changes Subsystem ............................................................. 38

Conclusions .................................................................................................. 40


PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPE The Natural Potential The renewable natural potential is in tight connection with the hydrographic network, being much wider in the large rivers areas or there where is present a strong hydrography network. The cultivable areas are distributed especially in the countries

benefiting of natural hydrographic basins or which developed large areas of irrigated land.

These hydrographic networks are a factor of capitalisation for the products from natural resources, of Environment, and their effect is as much stronger in the areas where it was established/ developed also an infrastructure network which to increase

this natural capitalisation factor.

Source: http://www.digitalmaps.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/europe_topographical_blank.jpg

TOTAL PRODUCTIVE AREAS Obviously, as larger the area of a country and the better represented its hydrographic network, the wider will also be the exploitable plots, respectively the flows of capital in

using the Environment potential.

France distinguishes itself as the largest EU Member as use of the areas for

agriculture, followed by Spain and Germany.


In Eastern Europe, Poland and Romania have the largest areas meant for the

agriculture production.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

166.636,00

FIGURE 1 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA AREAS DESIGNED FOR AGRICULTURAL CROPS

PRODUCTIVE LANDS PER CAPITA The population of an area/ country is the determining factor of this index which is to

be correlated with the areas/ countries capacities to provide for the own needs of consume from capitalising the own Environmental potential. The Northern countries, with lower density of the population, are in the position

to present larger productive areas/ person. In the Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries, Bulgaria, Romania and Greece have

the largest productive areas/ person. min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

6,46

FIGURE 2 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA PRODUCTIVE AREAS PER CAPITA

To

tal a

reas d

esig

ned

for a

gric

ultu

ral c

ro

ps

(Ha)

The in

dex pre

sents

th

e la

nd are

as,

in

hecta

res, w

ith a

gric

ultu

ral d

estin

atio

n.

Pro

du

ctiv

e a

reas p

er c

ap

ita (H

a/P

ers

)

The in

dex p

resents

the la

nd a

reas, in

hecta

res,

with

agric

ultu

ral

purp

ose,

reporte

d

per c

apita

.


TOTAL IRRIGATED AREAS

Out of the use of this potential, France obtains the largest income, turning the natural potential into the capital, followed by Germany, Italy and Spain.

Amongst the European states, Italy and Spain have the strongest developed network of irrigation, in order to provide for the absence of the fertile lands and of the

hydrographic basins. In the Eastern Europe, only Romania has a more developed network of irrigation (though the irrigated areas have decreased by each year - 1.5 mil Hectares in 1990 to 0.2 mil. Hectares in 2014).

Large works of infrastructures, shaping of the environment have been developed, some of them having already hundreds of years;

Out of the Eastern countries, only Romania is still reporting significant irrigable areas to EuroStat, but decreasing from one year to another.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

3.977.210,00

FIGURE 3 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST VALID AREAS IRRIGATED AREAS

FLOWS OF CAPITAL FROM THE USE OF THE PRODUCTIVE AREAS We notice that, from the East European countries, Poland and Romania succeed to

capitalise their natural potential reaching comparable values with those from the United Kingdom or Netherlands. Nevertheless, these two countries have

Environmental potential much larger than the United Kingdom or Netherlands.

The indexes of quality of the use of the natural potential show us another situation of the efficiency division at European level.

France, Germany, Italy and Spain are the European countries achieving the largest incomes from the primary exploitation of the natural potential;

In the Eastern Europe, Poland and Romania achieve the largest incomes from the direct exploitation of the natural agricultural potential.

To

tal ir

rig

ate

d a

reas (H

a)

The

index

pre

sents

th

e

irrigate

d

are

as,

in hecta

res,

of

the to

tal

agric

ultu

ral

are

as.


min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

41.305,50

FIGURE 4 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA INCOMES FROM AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

THE CAPACITY TO PROVIDE FOR THE NEEDS OF THE OWN POPULATION FROM THE USE OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES

Netherlands and France are the Western European countries with the best capacity to cover for the basic needs of their own populations;

In Eastern Europe, Lithuania, Romania and Hungary have the highest capacities for providing for the needs of their own populations. Germany, Poland, United Kingdom, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Northern

countries have more reduced capacities to cover for their own need which are to be compensated by Imports.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

763,47

FIGURE 5 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA EURO/CAPITA FROM THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Th

e

inco

mes

resu

lting

fr

om

th

e

cap

italis

atio

n o

f the n

atu

ral p

ote

ntia

l (Euro

)

The in

dex pre

sents

th

e in

com

es re

sultin

g

from

the p

roductio

n o

n th

e a

reas w

ith a

gric

ultu

ral

purp

oses.

Th

e

cap

acity

to

u

se

the

ow

n

natu

ral

en

vir

on

men

t fo

r

pro

vid

ing

fo

r

the

necessary

reso

urces

for

the

ow

n

po

pu

latio

n (E

uro

/Pers

)

The

index

pre

sents

th

e

capacity

to

pro

vid

e

for

the

popula

tions

needs

from

th

e

incom

es

obta

ined

from

th

e

use

of

the

Enviro

nm

enta

l pote

ntia

l.


THE INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF THE USE OF THE OWN NATURAL POTENTIAL

The highest efficiency of the use of the areas with agricultural destination occurs in Netherlands.

In the Eastern Europe, Slovenia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary are the countries which start to use more effectively the potential of the areas with

the agricultural destination. There is a large reserve of development potential in this field in the Eastern European countries.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

65.655,24

FIGURE 6 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA /HA OF THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

TOTAL LIVESTOCK The livestock situation describes quite well also the specificity of the internal consumes of the respective countries. The cattle stock is larger in countries with higher tolerance at lactose, range somehow likely to that of R1b haploid-group.

The EU livestock provide for the populations own needs for consume.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Cattle Swine Sheep

FIGURE 7 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST VALID DATA LIVESTOCK

Th

e in

ten

sity

an

d th

e effic

ien

cy o

f th

e u

se

of th

e p

ro

du

ctiv

e la

nd

s (E

uro

/Ha)

The in

dex pre

sents

th

e le

vel

of

incom

es

achie

ved

from

explo

iting

the

Enviro

nm

enta

l

pote

ntia

l, re

porte

d to

th

e are

a w

ith agric

ultu

ral

destin

atio

n.


The Demographic Situation The efficiency of the use of the natural potential creates the premises for the demographic development but the efficiency of the communities organisation and management systems create major differences between the various societies.

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX

Consequently, there are large differences between the Northern Europe and the Western and Eastern ones, such as they can be noticed in the Human Development index (Human Development Index - 2015)

0,69

0,72

0,74

0,77

0,79

0,82

0,84

0,87

0,89

0,94

FIGURE 8 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE HDI 2015 REPORT HDI INDEX

General indexes as the population size and its trends, the evolution of the fertility rate

show us how desirable and efficient are the societies forms of organisation and management.

The development of the towns network, the weight of the urban and rural communities in the demographic system of a country have been emphasised in order to create an image on the societies type of development.

THE FERTILITY RATE

The fertility rate, as synthetic index of the citizens satisfaction and of the governments efficiency, is particularly important in defining the social policies pragmatism/ efficiency.

The transition in the countries from the ex-communist block influences negatively this index.

The low fertility rates from Western European countries (Portugal, Spain) are due to improper social programs and lack of economical strenght.

By France, Sweden, Ireland and Iceland (the only one presenting this type of positive rates during the last 20 years), the Western Europe has the highest fertility rates.

Montenegro, Macedonia, the Baltic countries and Bulgaria have the highest fertility rate in the Eastern Europe.


Poland has the lowest fertility rate in the Eastern Europe. The Central and

Southern Europe present the lowest fertility rates. 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

FIGURE 9 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA FERTILITY RATE

TOTAL POPULATIONS The developed Western European countries have also populations which contribute and support/ maintain this growth.

As for the populations concentration in urban centres, the development of the towns network, each country developed a different type of model.

Germany, France, United Kingdom and Italy stand out as the most populated European countries; Poland and Romania have the largest populations in Eastern Europe.

8.076.746,30

16.153.492,60

24.230.238,90

32.306.985,20

40.383.731,50

48.460.477,80

56.537.224,10

64.613.970,40

72.690.716,70

80.767.463,00

FIGURE 10 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATION

Th

e

natu

ral

increase

of

the

po

pu

latio

n

of

Eu

ro

pean

co

un

trie

s

(Foetu

ses/W

om

an)

This

index p

resents

the n

um

ber o

f

new

-born

reporte

d to

wom

ens

num

ber in

a p

opula

tion.

Th

e

po

pu

latio

ns

of

the

Eu

ro

pean

co

un

trie

s (P

ers

)

The in

dex pre

sents

th

e popula

tion

tota

l, as n

um

ber o

f pers

ons.


THE WEIGHT OF THE URBAN CENTRES IN POPULATIONS TOTAL The various cultural models of the European states led to various types of territorial development, to various approaches of the relation with the environment and its

potential, especially considering the security limitations it imposes.

Consequently, some states developed predominantly small, semi-urban and rural

communities, especially in the most vulnerable European areas.

Strong development and geographic limitations render the United Kingdom into the most urbanised European country.

France, Portugal, Cyprus, Netherlands and Finland have large populations in urban centres.

The Baltic countries, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Greece are the most urbanised states of the Eastern Europe.

0,07

0,14

0,21

0,28

0,35

0,43

0,50

0,57

0,64

0,71

FIGURE 11 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA LARGE URBAN CENTRES

THE WEIGHT OF THE SMALL AND RURAL COMMUNITIES IN THE POPULATIONS TOTAL It can be noticed a delimitation of the Western Europe by much smaller values of the populations weight in small or rural areas. We have the highest figures of the small and rural urban communities weight in populations total in the Central and Eastern Europe.

Larg

e u

rb

an

cen

tres (%

Popula

tion)

The in

dex p

resents

the ra

tio b

etw

een

the

popula

tions

from

la

rge

urb

an

centre

s

and th

e to

tal p

opula

tion.


0,08

0,16

0,24

0,32

0,40

0,49

0,57

0,65

0,73

0,81

FIGURE 12 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA SMALL COMMUNITIES

Economic Sizes The volumes of the European economies vary a lot from one State to another, both in volume and dynamics. The large European economies (Germany, France, the United

Kingdom and Italy) generate larger volumes compared to the economies of the Eastern European countries.

However, the rates of growth and development are much higher in the small European economies.

Economically, at European level, we present only two indicators (GDP and GDP rate)

which are correlated with the potential and social indexes.

THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT The economic volumes show a clear leading position for the four Western European powers, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy, followed quite far by Spain.

These are the countries which form the European economic engine and generate the economic development.

Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands, Belgium and Poland form the group of the average European economies which also contribute (less than the group of first 5), to

the community economic development.

Finally, the group of the countries with smaller contributions to the community economic growth is formed by Norway, Finland, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Romania,

Hungary and Czech Republic.

Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy are the strongest economies in

the Western Europe. Poland, followed by Greece, Romania, Czech Republic and Hungary, has the most developed economy in the Eastern Europe.

Th

e

weig

ht

of

the

sm

all

tow

ns

an

d

ru

ral c

om

mu

nitie

s (%

of th

e p

opula

tions

to

tal)

The

index

is

giv

en

by

the

ratio

betw

een

the

popula

tions

tota

l num

ber

in

sm

all

urb

an centre

s and ru

ral

com

munitie

s

reporte

d to

the p

opula

tions

tota

l.


29.156,50

87.469,50

160.360,75

257.549,08

403.331,58

694.896,58

986.461,58

1.278.026,58

1.569.591,58

2.915.650,00

FIGURE 13 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA GDP, MIL EURO

THE GDP RATE

On the free development potential, noticeable by the GDP growth, the situation at EU level is different. The much higher growth rate from the Eastern Europe show up in countries where there are large potentials of Environment, but also of Change, which

are not used and lead to economic growth.

The Western Europe, except for Iceland, has average/ small growth rates.

The highest values of the GDP rates are in the Eastern Europe, particularly in the Baltic and Balkan countries. Romania is a country of average (European) level with a significant growth rate.

-5,90

-4,88

-3,86

-2,84

-1,82

-0,80

0,22

1,24

2,26

4,30

FIGURE 14 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA GDP RATE

GD

P (M

il Euro

)

The in

dex pre

sents

th

e valu

e cre

ate

d

and/ o

r consum

ed/ a

llow

ed in

a s

ocie

ty d

urin

g

1 y

ear, e

xpre

ssed in

Euro

.

GD

P r

ate

(% o

f the p

revio

us G

DP)

This

ra

te

hig

hlig

hts

th

e

change

(in

gro

wth

or th

e d

ecre

ase) o

f the G

DP, fro

m o

ne

year o

r anoth

er.


Conclusion The EU policy of knowledge-based development as renewable and unlimited

resource led to the development of some strong economies in the Western Europe where there are most of the European research centres.

The results of the European research can be found in the technologies implemented in the changing processes, especially in the Western Europe but, via their incorporation in equipment and machinery, also in the East European countries, where

the development is predominantly copied, used (via its results), and not generated.

Nevertheless, the East European countries have a huge tank of unused natural potential which, combined with the research results at EU level (comprised in

technologies, equipment and machinery of European origin) leaving space for strong growth rates, including

economical ones. (Fig. 4 on the side)

This situation is revealed also by the much lowest intensity in the use of the natural potential in East

European countries.

The reverse of this situation is given by the fact that

the East European countries accede directly to the new technologies and develop activities in fields like IT&C, even if they do not capitalise their free natural potential.

The populations have much higher fertility rates in the

Western Europe, especially in France and in the North-Western countries and as size the largest European

populations can be found in the most developed economies (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy). (Fig. 9 reproduced aside)

Traditionally, the patterns of economic growth need larger populations for higher results. In these systems, the

technologies may compensate part of the needs for labour force but, mostly, they ensure the investors against various risks associated to the Environment and/ or Social.

The Eastern Europe registers negative fertility rates and a de-population process due to the freedom of movement in the community area, the citizens from this area

preferring to migrate to more economically developed countries.

As their consequence, we find the highest values of

economic size in the Western Europe, while the highest growth rates can be found in the Eastern Europe. (Fig. 14

reproduced aside)

The Western Europe developed a solid growth model,

based on technological and production capacities also requiring large populations, while the Eastern Europe (the Balkan model and strictly Eastern- not Central European)

does not take into consideration, at the same level, the potential given by the population, but it capitalises the

advantages of the access on markets of the high technologies, even neglecting the existing natural potentials.

min2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

41.305,50

12

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

-5,90-4,88

-3,86

-2,84

-1,82

-0,80

0,22

1,24

2,26

4,30


PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT IN ROMANIA Romania has its own development hierarchy, both territorially and demographically

and economically.

The municipality of Bucharest has a population of approximately 2 mil. persons, which

is about 10% of the countrys population. The capital generates a gross income of 111 billion euro annually which is about 38% of the total of the national Gross Income.

Of the 111 billion achieved in Bucharest, 48.5 billion are in District 1 of the Capital,

which means 44% of it.

Socioeconomic levels Level 1 The Capital and the Ilfov County, with of population of 10%, generates 38% of the Romanian Gross Income and constitutes which we call level 1 of development.

Level 2 The traditional regional capitals (Iai, Constana, Craiova, Cluj and Timioara) owe 8% weight of the population total but produce only 11% of the Gross Income, as the capitals of Moldavia and Oltenia are far behind other county capitals, aspiring to the

level of regional capital (Piteti, Braov, Ploieti, Sibiu, Oradea, Arad, Trgu Mure). Level 3 This re-arrangement on economic criteria makes the rest of the county capitals to

have a value of the Gross Income higher than the population weight. Level 4

Small urban localities have a weight of 25% of the population and produce 18% of the Gross Income, which proves the same phenomenon of capitals concentration and of reporting premises to more developed urban centres.

Level 5 As expected, the rural localities, comprising 37% of the population, generate only

11% of the Gross Income, generally from agricultural business or of primary exploitation of the resources, without large technological investments. Such things happen because the incomes accomplished by companies at national

level, are accounted where they have their premises, and most of them have their premises in District 1 of the Capital. It happens similarly to regional and/ or county

levels. Only Hunedoara County has developed a towns networks with a higher ratio of the population compared to their municipality and the rural environment.

The level 5 predominance occurs in areas with high landscape or in the Danube riparian areas.

The level of each County, respectively Capital District is presented in the map, according to the above. The green areas have a higher level of urbanisation and


Th

e u

rb

an

isatio

n le

vel

The

map

pre

sents

th

e

ratio

betw

een th

e urb

an popula

tion and th

e

rura

l one, a

t county

level.

regional concentration while the red ones are predominantly rural. The

District 1 of the Capital is the only one of level 1.

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

FIGURE 15 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, ORC, MAPI, LAST AVAILABLE DATA THE PREDOMINANCE OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LEVELS

The fiscal system in Romania, compared to the other 28 European states is an average one, with a sole ratio of 16% both for profit and for dividends (since 2016 it will decrease at 5%), in case of repatriating the profits. Comparatively, the system in

Hungary has higher fiscal values and that from Serbia is more loosen than the Romanian one.

The low value of the wages may be attractive. In Romania, the minimum gross wage is of 1,050 RON (1050 / 4,5 = 233 euro) and a gross average wage is of 2,400 RON (2,400 / 4.5 = 533 euro). For expenses with the employees, the employers pay

supplementary to those a cumulated quota (composed of several taxes, contributions) of 38.15 %.

The capital is divided in sectors, with populations compared to those in the counties. The largest urban populations are in Cluj and Constanta counties, which also

have urban centres being regional capital and a developed network of urban localities. The counties of Timi, Iai and Dolj, especially, in the absence of a developed urban network, have a weaker ranking.

Significant increase of the urbanisation is in the counties of Braov and Prahova, large county centres and strong urban networks.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

FIGURE 16 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, ORC, MAPI, LAST AVAILABLE DATA URBANISATION LEVELS

Th

e

pred

om

inan

ce

of

the

so

cio

-

eco

no

mic

levels

The m

ap pre

sents

th

e geogra

phic

al

dis

tributio

n,

in th

e te

rritory

, of

the 5 le

vels

of d

evelo

pm

ent.


The status of the Environment subsystem The main agricultural areas are in the Southern (Romanian) Plain, in the basins of Olt

and Jiu, and in Moldavia, in the basins of Siret and Prut.

The Western Field, with the basin of Mures and the Crises, is not very well represented, the county having hilly and forestry areas quite large, and also unused

areas.

TOTAL PRODUCTIVE AREAS

The areas with high agricultural potential are also the lowest developed (Southern and North-Eastern Areas) the main reason for phenomenon being the lack of infrastructure (transport and processing altogether) and of connection with the specific market for

the products resulting from the Environment. Due to the natural limitations and to the urbanisation and development levels

we have different quotas for the productive agricultural areas, mostly concentrate in South and East.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

300.829

479

FIGURE 17 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA AREAS ASSIGNED FOR AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES

TOTAL IRRIGATED AREAS The geopolitical borders limit the access from the WESTERN area to the Tisa route

(river which might collect naturally the Environment products in this area, on the way down to Danube, and from there, upstream to the Northern harbours or downstream to Constana). From these reason, the capitalisation index of the Environment potential of this region is limited. The other geopolitical borders (the Southern and Eastern ones) allow the access to

navigable ways which could corridors for collecting the Environment products, implicitly the associated capitalisation potential being higher. In the absence of the access to the navigable Tisa way, the effects of the irrigated

areas in the WESTERN area are capitalised by the impact of the road infrastructure (highway with connection to the European highway system) and, those from the

Southern and Eastern areas might be efficiently capitalised by the use of the Danube navigable routes (the river transportation is up to 20 times cheaper than the road one).

The main irrigated areas are in the final sector of the Danube, followed by those from the Prut basin.

The Arad and Timis counties are an exception as they developed a channels network.

Th

e to

tal a

reas m

ean

t for

ag

ric

ultu

ral a

ctiv

ities (H

a)

The in

dex pre

sents

th

e to

tal

of

the

are

as,

in

hecta

res,

desig

nate

d

to

agric

ultu

re.


min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

138.170

0

FIGURE 18 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA IRRIGATED AREAS

CAPITAL FLOW FROM THE USE OF THE PRODUCTIVE AREAS Due to the integration of the agricultural production (processing, raising livestock,

etc.), there are large flows of capital in the WEST region from using the Environmental potential.

Due to the lack of infrastructure and to a weaker capacity of processing, in the areas with large potential from East and South, the capital flow from using the Environment potential is lower.

Though, the South and North-East regions hold larger agriculture areas and more developed irrigation networks, they do not succeed to capitalise, to turn into income

these natural and infrastructure potentials. The main Western centres, the counties of Timis, Arad and Bihor succeed the best to turn into capital the agricultural products, and this happens in Suceava, Iasi

and Botosani in North-East;

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

75.456.349

2.244.037

FIGURE 19 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA INCOMES FROM AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONS

To

tal ir

rig

ate

d a

reas (H

a)

The

index

pre

sents

are

as

equip

ped

with

sew

era

ge

and/

or

irrigate

d p

ipes s

yste

m a

t county

level.

Th

e in

co

me resu

lting

fr

om

p

rim

ary

cap

italis

ing

th

e

natu

ral

po

ten

tial

(Euro

from

the a

gric

ultu

ral p

roductio

n)

The

index

pre

sents

th

e

incom

e

achie

ved

from

explo

iting

the

natu

ral

Enviro

nm

enta

l pro

ductio

n.


THE CAPACITY TO PROVIDE FOR THE OWN POPULATIONS NEEDS FROM USING THE ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Capitalising the natural Environmental potential from the agricultural products has as

purpose to provide for the populations food safety and for ensuring the basis for the future demographic development.

The Southern counties, in the vicinity of the Capital, due to their attraction to it and as result of the depopulation, as well as due to the large agriculture areas, may provide more easily for the populations use.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

1.859

12

FIGURE 20 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA EURO/CAPITA OF THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

THE INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF THE USE OF THE OWN NATURAL POTENTIAL The efficiency of the natural potential use distinguished areas with higher efficiencies

and larger productions, especially in the WESTERN area (Arad and Timi), Braov and in the final sector of Danube. We can notice in most of the territory a smaller intensity in using the natural potential

and a lower efficiency. The intensity of the potential use is higher in the West (Timis and Arad), in

Centre (Brasov) and in South-East (Constanta, Calarasi, Ialomita and Braila).

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

35.507

684

FIGURE 21 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA EURO/HA OF THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Th

e

cap

acity

to

u

se

the

ow

n

en

vir

on

men

t to

p

ro

vid

e

for

the

reso

urces

need

ed

fo

r

the

ow

n

po

pu

latio

n (E

uro

/Capita

)

The

index

pre

sents

th

e

ratio

betw

een

the

incom

es

resulte

d

from

th

e

capita

lisatio

n of

the Enviro

nm

ent

pote

ntia

l

and th

e n

um

ber o

f pers

ons.

Th

e in

ten

sity

an

d e

fficie

ncy in

usin

g

the p

ro

du

ctiv

e la

nd

s (E

uro

/Ha)

The

index

pre

sents

th

e

ratio

betw

een

the

incom

e

achie

ved

from

capita

lisin

g

the

Enviro

nm

enta

l pote

ntia

l

and th

e exis

ting are

as fo

r th

is.

It is

an

index of

inte

nsity

and effic

iency in

th

e

land u

se.


TOTAL LIVESTOCK The livestock decreased a lot compared to the historic landmark of the livestock populations in 1989/ 1990, which lead to an expansion of the sheep breeders to the

free areas which prior had large cattle and swine populations. Breeding large animals (cattle, horses) which were traditional in the hill areas

reduced significantly currently only the Northern, North-Eastern areas presenting significant numbers. The swine breeding remained developed only in Timis County (this county

having larger stocks than the entire South-Eastern Development Region). The sheep stock migrated from the hilly region of the Carpathians to the plain areas, the only county with traditionally large numbers still being Sibiu.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

212

159.550

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

30

640.247

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

1.066

571.545

Cattle Swine Sheep

FIGURE 22 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA LIVESTOCK NUMBERS

Liv

esto

ck p

op

ula

tion

s

There

are

pre

sente

d

the

livesto

ck

popula

tion,

on

type o

f bre

edin

g.


The Status of the Social Subsystem POPULATION

The population increase or reduction is a strong synthetic indicator on the living condition. We have two categories of regions with

populations growth in Romania, those from Moldavia (Iai, Suceava, Vaslui) and those from counties which are regional centres (Timi, Constana). At Capitals level, we have continuous decrease in populations number, after 1994, and only in the first years after 1990 there was an increase in the population. (fig. 23)

0

5.000.000

10.000.000

15.000.000

20.000.000

25.000.000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Evolutia populatiei pe regiuni

Nord - Vest / North - West Centru / Center Nord - Est / North - East Sud - Est / South - East Sud - Muntenia / South - Muntenia Bucureti - Ilfov / Bucharest - Ilfov Sud - Vest Oltenia / South - West Oltenia Vest / West

FIGURE 23 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATIONS

Starting from a predominantly rural population by the end of the Second World War, Romania strongly urbanised itself, sometimes wildly, until 1990. 1985 is the year of balance, starting which the urban population is higher than the rural one. After 1990 the total populations decline is starting, keeping the majority of the urban population, the difference between urban and rural remaining relatively constant after 2005. (fig. 24)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1930

1931

1932

1933

1934

1935

1936

1937

1938

1939

1940

1946

1947

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Evolutia populatie -

Urban Rural FIGURE 24 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATIONS ON ENVIRONMENT

Populations Evolution

Populations Evolution on Regions


The urbanisation process was accompanied by the industrialisation one until 1990, which needed larger populations in the urban centres,

where the industrial capacities have been located. The larger in numbers generations, born during 1968-1969, are already 46-47 years old in 2015. The generations born during the last 23

years are much smaller in number. The last 20 years trend is of increase in the active population and in that over this age, with the reduction in the number of young and very young populations. Since 2009 the young population (6-18 years old) is inferior in number to

that over the active age (65 years old and more). (fig. 25)

0

5.000.000

10.000.000

15.000.000

20.000.000

25.000.000

1968 1969 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014

Evolutia populatiei pe categorii de varsta

0-5 6-18 19-65 66-100 FIGURE 25 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATIONS BY AGE

The populations increase, especially the active one, that took place until 1990, is due to some specific terms. The entire population had been captive inside the state borders, not being the possibility for migration. The effects of the sexual revolution of the 70s were very slightly visible in the populations social behaviour, the means for contraception being very limited and even risky. This situation of the general decrease of population number and, mostly of the young age groups, after 1990, is also explained by the changes in the fertility rate. Until the 1967 peak, we can notice a trend of reduction of the fertility rate which continues afterwards. After

1990, the fertility rate stabilises around 1.2. (fig. 26)

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

Rata fertilitatii

FIGURE 26 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATIONS FERTILITY RATE

Populations Evolution on Age Category

Fertility Rate


Th

e e

mp

loym

en

t rate

- Co

un

ties

The in

dex pre

sents

th

e ra

tio

betw

een

the

effe

ctiv

ely

em

plo

yed

popula

tion

and

the

age-a

ctiv

e

popula

tion,

with

w

ork

capacity

, at

county

level.

Em

plo

ym

en

t rate

C

ou

nty

Cap

itals

The

index

pre

sents

th

e

ratio

betw

een

the

effe

ctiv

ely

em

plo

yed

popula

tion

and

the

activ

e-a

ge

popula

tion,

able

to

w

ork

, at

the le

vel

of c

ounty

capita

ls.

THE EMPLOYMENT RATES OF THE ACTIVE POPULATION: The employment rate was preferred to the unemployment one, which may omit the unoccupied persons who are not registered (unoccupied persons, persons who do not

receive unemployment aid, persons not registered and persons who migrated economically but are still reported with the domicile in the country). In this regard, the employment rate was calculated as ratio of the employment persons compared to

the total active population, on genders and environments (urban rural).

Total on Counties Higher occupancy values can be notices in several counties which we observe more

carefully in the report. The capital and the Ilfov County have the highest occupancy rate of the active

population. The counties of Sibiu, Timi, Cluj, Braov and Prahova have higher employment rates of the active population.

Mainly, the orientation of the higher employment rates of the active population is from centre to the West- North-West.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,000

0,745

FIGURE 27 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA EMPLOYMENT RATES 1

County Capitals The highest values are in the Capital, but they are very close to those from Timi, Sibiu, Cluj and Braov Counties. The Arad County is very close to the Timi County in the Western area, continuing the West, North-West line of the counties with rates

around 30 %.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,000

0,368



Th

e em

plo

ym

en

t rate

in

th

e u

rb

an

en

vir

on

men

t

excep

ting

fo

r

the

cap

itals

The

index

pre

sents

th

e

ratio

betw

een

the

effe

ctiv

ely

em

plo

yed

popula

tion

and

the

age-a

ctiv

e

popula

tion,

able

to

w

ork

, at

urb

an

localitie

s le

vel, e

xceptin

g fo

r the c

ounty

capita

ls.

Th

e

em

plo

ym

en

t rate

in

th

e

ru

ral a

rea

The in

dex p

resents

the ra

tio

betw

een

the

effe

ctiv

ely

em

plo

yed

popula

tion

and

the

activ

e

age

popula

tion,

able

to

w

ork

, at

rura

l

localitie

s le

vel.

The urban environment, excepting for the county capitals The Ilfov County is the most urbanised one, being also in the vicinity of the

Capital, reason for which it also presents the highest employment rates of the active population. We have low employment rates in the rural environment, in the WESTERN

region, excluding the capital, with values about 10%.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,000

0,444


The rural environment We have the lowest employment rates of the active population in the rural environment, with values below 5%, the only exception being the Ilfov County.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,000

0,145


POTENTIAL OF UNEMPLOYED ACTIVE POPULATION: Only District 1 of the Capital has a (large) deficit of active population.

We have large numbers of active, unemployed populations in the North-East and South-East areas.


Activ

e u

nem

plo

yed

po

pu

latio

n

The

index

pre

sents

th

e

ratio

betw

een

the

unem

plo

yed

popula

tion

and th

e activ

e-a

ge popula

tion,

able

to

work

, at c

ountie

s le

vel.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

-283.703,418

273.774,000

FIGURE 31 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATIONS ON ENVIRONMENTS

Under such terms of the active populations employment, the values of the annual salary incomes, in Euro, are presented below.

GROSS AVERAGE SALARY INCOMES This index confirms also the particular situation of the Capital District 1, where the

average salaries value is more than 12,000 Euro/ year. The map presents numbers up to 8,000 euro/capita, which is at the normal

functioning border of a democratic society. Excepting for the Capital and the Ilfov County, we notice high levels of the salaries in the Sibiu and Gorj counties.

The situation of the Timis and Cluj regional capitals is normal. A particular situation is in the Arad and Arges counties (the Renault plants)

which go over their level. In addition, regional capitals like Iasi, Dolj and Constana are below their level.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

7.859,19

FIGURE 32 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA SALARIES

Averag

e s

ala

ry in

co

mes

The

index

pre

sents

th

e

ratio

betw

een

the

tota

l am

ounts

fo

r th

e

sala

ries

paym

ent

(in

the

public

and

priv

ate

enviro

nm

ents

) and

the

tota

l

activ

e a

ge p

opula

tion.


The status of the Economic subsystem The values of the Gross Income in Euro (calculated as sum of the public and private

incomes) present a concentration of the highest levels in the Capital and in the neighbouring county, Ilfov. District 1 of the Capital has values much higher than the

others, with over 200,000 euro/capita. At their turn, the Capital districts have values of the GI around 50,000 euro/capita. However, the main issue is the low level (below 8,000 Euro/capita) of this indicator in

several counties of the country.

GROSS INCOMES We have calculated this index as sum of the incomes achieved at community/ reporting levels, comprising both public and declared incomes (business turnovers).

The maxim representation limit is of 8,000 Euro/ capita, considered as minimal level for a functional democratic society. The incomes polarisation at Capitals level is obvious, as result of a centralised development model, heir of the decision-make model before 1990. At counties levels, we notice a significant development in the counties of Sibiu

(based on the investment capitals, predominantly foreign) and Arges (premises of the Renault factories). The major risks remain for the North-East, East, South, South-West areas.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

2.863,32

8.000,00

FIGURE 33 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA GROSS INCOMES (GI)

THE WEIGHT OF TURNOVER IN TOTAL GROSS INCOMES The index weighs the contribution of the private business environment in the total of Gross Incomes at county level (the analyse can be sent further up to community

level). For this index, again the Capital, the Ilfov County and the counties of Sibiu and Arges have particular rankings.

Here, we notice a geographically connected area (Timi, Arad, Bihor, Cluj, Mure, Braov, Prahova) with large development potential and with high business levels.

Gro

ss in

co

me (E

uro

/Capita

)

The in

dex p

resents

the s

um

of

all

incom

es

(priv

ate

and

public

)

achie

ved at

county

le

vel,

reporte

d to

the p

opula

tion.


min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,81

0,98

FIGURE 34 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA BUSINESS TURNOVER IN GI

THE TURNOVER DISTRIBUTION ON COUNTIES Except for the counties of Alba, Arge, Harghita and Hunedoara (the capital of the Ilfov County is the state capital, all counties present a phenomenon of centralisation of the economic activities in the County capital.

0 10.000.000 20.000.000 30.000.000 40.000.000 50.000.000 60.000.000

Alba

Arad

Arges

Bacau

Bihor

BistritaNasaud

Botosani

Braila

Brasov

Bucuresti

Buzau

Calarasi

CarasSeverin

Cluj

Constanta

Covasna

Dambovita

Dolj

Galati

Giurgiu

Gorj

Harghita

Hunedoara

Ialomita

Iasi

Ilfov

Maramures

Mehedinti

Mures

Neamt

Olt

Prahova

Salaj

SatuMare

Sibiu

Suceava

Teleorman

Timis

Tulcea

Valcea

Vaslui

Vrancea

Sector 1

Sector 2

Sector 3

Sector 4

Sector 5

Sector 6

Venituri brute pe medii de locuire - Mii Euro

Resedinte Orase Comune

FIGURE 35 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA TURNOVER DISTRIBUTION ON COUNTIES - RON

Th

e

weig

ht

of

the

bu

sin

ess

turn

over (

%)

The in

dex re

pre

sents

th

e ra

tio

betw

een th

e in

com

es achie

ved in

th

e

priv

ate

enviro

nm

ent

and th

e to

tal

of

gro

ss in

com

es a

t county

level.

Tu

rn

over d

istr

ibu

tion

on

Co

un

ties

The gra

ph re

pre

sents

th

e dis

tributio

n of

the in

com

es achie

ved by th

e priv

ate

enviro

nm

ent o

n c

apita

l enviro

nm

ents

and c

ountie

s.

Gross income on habitation environment Thousands of Euro


TURNOVER DISTRIBUTION ON HABITATION ENVIRONMENTS The Capital concentrates about one third of the total turnover at national level.

The counties capitals concentrate about have of the Counties Turnovers, but they do not equal the Capital.

0 200.000.000.000 400.000.000.000 600.000.000.000 800.000.000.000

Sector 1

Sector 2

Sector 3

Sector 4

Sector 5

Sector 6

Bucuresti

Resedinte

Orase

Rural

Urban

Judete

CIfra de Afaceri pe Medii

FIGURE 36 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA TURNOVER ON ENVIRONMENTS - RON

Tu

rn

over d

istr

ibu

tion

on

hab

itatio

n

en

vir

on

men

ts

The gra

ph pre

sents

a synth

esis

of

the

turn

over

dis

tributio

n

on

habita

tion e

nviro

nm

ents

Turnover on Environments

Counties

Urban

Rural

Towns

County capitals

Bucharest

District 6

District 5

District 4

District 3

District 2

District 1


Conclusions Romania has a huge natural, agricultural potential in the areas of the basins of

Danube, Prut and Siret. Though the Danube is navigable, the collection of products resulting from the use of the Environment potential is not efficient, facts leading to a

low capitalisation. (fig. 17 reproduced asides) The productions are low in the Danube upstream and

in the downstream Romanian sector, the productions are

average and, in the lack of an efficient capitalisation system (the transport infrastructure, storage capacities,

conditioning and access on the markets) have an average degree of capitalisation.

The lack of a collection, transport, storage, conditioning and opening system leads to the producers insecurity, the use of a bad road infrastructure for shipment, with much higher costs and in bad shipment

conditions, and, eventually, to the loss of substantial incomes. The situation is even worst in the basin of Prut and Siret.

From these reasons, the agriculture productions have much higher capitalisation values in the basin of Mures, Cris and in the Western Plain, though this area potential

is much lower. (fig. 19 reproduced aside) The productions are better integrated in the WESTERN

area (area with the highest swine livestock) and the local infrastructure, though only road infrastructure, allows for a better capitalisation. Not lately, the

proximity and the direct connections with the European market contribute to the increase of this capitalisation factor in this area.

In opposition, the areas from N-E and S, S-E remain poor, just because to the incapacity of capitalisation of the existing natural potential, but also to the incapacities to

develop significantly other sources of income from other industries or activities. (fig. 33 reproduced aside)

The regions where there is the highest agricultural potential are also the lowest developed because the national strategies and policies of development change by each government in

Romania and, sometimes, several times during the same government, and the use of the free Environment potential is not a national priority.

The efficiency of the use of the environment potential at national level is very low and the capital flows from using it are very low.

The fertility rate at national level indicates the 1.2 benchmark from a population

which can no longer come back or increase. Thus, the only solution for a demographic growth may be an infusion of population/ populations, supported by reliable public

policies in this regard. Ensuring better living conditions for the next generations must be subject to

national strategies in the field.

The pressure of this demographic situation is emphasised also by the low employment rates. We have in the urban environment (small towns) and in the rural

one we have particularly low employment rates (below 10%). The N-E and S-W areas distinguish themselves as having the lowest employment rates.

The disproportionate economic development of the Capital compared to the rest of the territory and of the county capitals compared to the counties lead to demographic

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

2.863,32

8.000,00

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

300.829

479

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

75.456.349

2.244.037


and economic concentrations in these urban poles, highlighting the depopulation of rural environment and of the urban one of the small towns.

Only 14 counties and the 6 districts of the Capital present a gross income per capita over the minimal limit of normality of 8,000 euro/capita. Nor in the counties situation, this index is not finally relevant, the values concentrations being achieved in the

county capitals and partly in the urban environment, as well as in the rural environment adjacent to the capitals or to significant urban centres.

The rest of 27 counties present high social and economic risks. We observe a development model starting from the Western areas of Romania and continuing through the central areas up to the Capital.

We notice a platoon of 16 counties where the most performant indexes show up, both for Environment, and Social potential use or of the Changes system ones.

For these reasons, the area of these 16 counties is the most recommended destination for the new investments and the intended area for particular development of the

national infrastructure networks. Calculating the ranking for all counties of Romania,

based on the defined indexes, also used in the report, we have the following situation highlighting and defining the above.

The report continues with an in-depth analyse, at community level, of the two counties from the WEST region which are among the

most performing in Romania and, for the time being, the only ones connected to the European highway system Arad and Timis.

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

0,24

10,00


Brief Presentation WEST Region The WEST development region is the main entry area to

Romania, both by road (corridor IV entering the country via Nadlac, connecting at this time Arad and Timisoara to the

EU highway system) and railway one, the main access being made via Curtici - Arad, the ulterior shipment channels following the southern route to Sofia and Istanbul,

through Timisoara and Drobeta Turnu Severin, or the central route, to Bucharest and the Constanta Harbour,

through Deva-Brasov-Bucharest. The Highway A1 also makes the connection with the airports from Timisoara and Arad, and the highway A4 (part

of the North-South European corridor) is connected to it. The Arad Szeged distance is of 80 Km and the Arad Budapest one is of 270Km. The distance to Vienna is of 500 Km. The distance between Arad and Timisoara (i.e. between the closest exits on the

highway) is of 30 Km. The distance from

Timisoara to Belgrade is of 151 Km and to Sofia is of 502 Km.

The population of the two urban centres, Timisoara (312,000 persons) and Arad (165,000 persons) cumulates 477,000

persons without taking into account the population in the localities between the two

of them. Taking into account the populations from the

localities neighbouring the two urban centres, we have a cumulated population of 710,000 persons. thus, the polarisation and development axis (Arad Timisoara) may become a major urban agglomeration in the region comparable to Budapest (1,728,000

persons) or Belgrade (1,339,000 persons), reaching the European ranking of urban centre (from 1,000,000 persons).

The growth rhythms in this area are very high and there are localities with mixt

ethnicity in most of the territory from this area, some of them established or even populated by German, Hungarian, Serbian,

Croatian, Bulgarian ethnics etc. The region developed the system of

localities and a specific organisation during an Austro-Hungarian Empire project and still maintains a distinct specificity due to

the illuminist influences of the Europe.

Timisoara -Arad Polarization Axis

Density

inhabitant/ sqkm (2011)

LEGEND


DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVES IN ARAD and TIMIS The Status of the Environment Subsystem PRODUCTIVE AREAS PER INHABITANT The situation of the agricultural, horticultural, winery lands in Arad and Timis counties,

per inhabitant is presented below.

The plots availability is higher in hilly, less populated areas.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

32,16

FIGURE 37 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 1

CAPITAL FLOWS FROM THE USE OF THE PRODUCTIVE AREAS The values for this index have been calculated according to the effective production

resulted from the use of the areas.

The index is calculated by summing up the production achieved at community level by the use of the Environment Resources (and not from the Change processes industrials, services, financial-banking, etc.). The amounts reaching effective results are represented, results attached to the environment criteria (agriculture, horticulture,

wine production).

The traditional areas for wine production present the highest levels of income from using the Environment.

The town of Recas capitalises its winery potential and gets the highest income from using the Environment, followed by the town of Lipova and the community of

Siria, both with wine production specificity.

Lan

ds p

er in

hab

itan

t

The

index

pre

sents

th

e

ratio

re

sultin

g

from

th

e

agric

ultu

re

are

as

and

the

com

munity

resid

ent p

opula

tion.


min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

6.341.159,94

FIGURE 38 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 2

THE CAPACITY TO PROVIDE FOR THE POPULATIONS NEEDS FROM THE ENVIRONMENT RESOURCES The hilly areas, with wine production specificity and the plain areas with higher

production distinguish themselves as being the most performant in providing for the own needs from the existing Environment resources. The amounts obtained as income

from the Environment potential capitalisation are not higher than 2,150 Euro/Capita. The localities with the highest income from Environment resources exploitation are Reca, Lipova, Siria, Jamu Mare, Dudestii Vechi and Pancota. Especially the small localities with small population are performant in this regard.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

2.149,64


In

co

me ach

ieved

fr

om

p

rim

ary cap

italis

atio

n

of

the n

atu

ral

po

ten

tial

(Euro

fro

m agric

ultu

ral

pro

ductio

n)

The in

dex pre

sents

th

e in

com

e achie

ved by

explo

iting th

e E

nviro

nm

ent p

ote

ntia

l, at c

om

munity

level.

Cap

acity

to p

rovid

e fo

r po

pu

latio

ns

need

s

fro

m

the

En

vir

on

men

t reso

urces

(Eu

ro

/C

ap

ita)

The in

dex pre

sents

th

e ra

tio betw

een

the

achie

ved

incom

e

from

th

e

Enviro

nm

ent

pote

ntia

l capita

lisatio

n

and

the

com

munitie

s

popula

tions.


THE INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF THE ENVIRONMENT POTENTIAL USE The systems for collecting and conditioning the productions represent the main

limitation of the Environment production. Another limitation is given by the sporadic use of the irrigation systems and on much smaller areas than the potential ones (there is a pipes system not used at its capacity).

We have as positive factors a quite good compacting of the properties, the use of genetically performant materials and a support (subventions) systems of the

agriculture production. Generally, the Environment given potential is not used efficiently, and there are only few exceptions in this regard.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,01

1,70


TOTAL LIVESTOCK We have currently quite low levels of livestock in the hilly areas where livestock

breeding was traditional due to the absence of a guaranteed collecting system for the products of animal origin. Higher numbers show up in the plain area, particularly in

livestock breeding farms (for cattle and swine). Breeding large animals (cattle, horses) traditional for the hilly areas knew a powerful reduction, currently the hilly grassland not being used at their potential;

The swine breeding is well represented in some specialised centres, for the rest of the territory there is livestock only in the populations households; We have large sheep populations in the plain areas, as proof for this activity change.

Cattle Swine Sheep

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

4.192,00

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

45.060,00

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

12.610,00

FIGURE 41 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA LIVESTOCK

Livestock The livestock is presented on species and communities.

Th

e in

ten

sity

an

d th

e effic

ien

cy of

the

En

vir

on

men

tal

po

ten

tial

use

(Eu

ro

/H

a)

The

index

pre

sents

th

e

ratio

betw

een

the

achie

ved

incom

e

from

capita

lisin

g

the

Enviro

nm

ent

pote

ntia

l

and th

e u

sed a

rea in

this

purp

ose.


Status of the Social Subsystem The population in the two counties lived big historical fluctuations which were felt both in the urban environment and in the rural one. However, in time, the urban

environment strengthened and is far above the rural populations.

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

800.000

1948 1956 1966 1977 1992 2002 2011 2015

Evolutia populatiei totale

ARAD TIMIS

FIGURE 42 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATION

The urban and rural populations have opposite evolutions in this general situation of the populations evolution. Major concentration of the population shows up in the two capitals (Arad and Timisoara) and in their neighbouring areas.

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

450.000

1948 1956 1966 1977 1992 2002 2011 2015

Evolutia populatiei urbane

Arad Timis

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

450.000

500.000

1948 1956 1966 1977 1992 2002 2011 2015

Evolutia populatiei rurale

Arad Timis

FIGURE 43 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATION

AGE DISTRIBUTION The young populations, born after 1990, are small as volume, their number decreasing a lot compared to the average of the populations prior to that year.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Distributia pe varste a populatiei masculine

AR Total TM Total

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Distributia pe varste a populatiei feminine

AR Total TM Total


The evolution of the total population

The evolution of the urban population The evolution of the rural population

Age distribution of the male population Age distribution of the female population


DEMOGRAPHY The rural areas are weakly populated, both in the hilly and plain ones, as result of the

attraction of the large urban centres and of the sensible differences in the living conditions. The population is concentrated in the plain area and in the urban centres,

especially in the two capitals.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

364,00

303.737,00


COMMUNITIES VITALITY PEARL INDEX The communities from the hilly areas present the lowest values of the communities vitality index, there also being the biggest issues related to the areas depopulation,

including bad living conditions. We notice that vitality is higher in communities with large populations of Rroma ethnicity.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,40

3,05


Vita

lity

The in

dex p

resents

the ra

tio (P

earl)

betw

een th

e popula

tion beyond th

e upper

age

limit

for

work

and

that

belo

w

the

infe

rior

age

limit

to

access

the

labour

mark

et.

Dem

og

rap

hy

The

map

pre

sents

th

e

num

ber

of

pers

ons liv

ing in

vario

us c

om

munitie

s.


THE ACTIVE POPULATIONS OCCUPANCY RATE The municipality of Arad draws in active population also from the neighbouring

localities and the municipality of Timisoara has developed significant production capacities also in the neighbouring communities.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,01

1,70


GROSS AVERAGE SALARIES INCOME The highest average incomes from salaries register in the municipality of Arad and in the communities neighbouring the municipality of Timisoara.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

45,52

29.525,05

FIGURE 48 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 5 - EUR

Th

e o

ccu

pan

cy r

ate

This

in

dex has been calc

ula

ted as ra

tio

betw

een

the

em

plo

yed

popula

tion

(with

out

takin

g in

to a

ccount th

e s

elf-e

mplo

yed pers

ons

w

ho w

ork

in

th

eir

ow

n household

), and th

e

tota

l popula

tion o

f activ

e a

ge (b

etw

een 1

8 a

nd

65 y

ears

old

).

An

nu

al a

verag

e in

co

me fr

om

sala

rie

s

This

in

dex has been calc

ula

ted as ra

tio

betw

een

the

annual

sala

ry

incom

e

and

the

num

ber o

f pers

ons o

f activ

e a

ge.


The Status of the Changes Subsystem GROSS INCOME The main income centres from the area are Timisoara (over 6 billion Euro) and Arad (over 3.5 billion Euro).

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

608.400,34

6.157.989.158,03

FIGURE 49 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 6 - EURO

DYNAMISM AND STAGNATION Though there is no direct relation/ correlation between them, the two weights values

oppose/ are antagonist, thus the communities generating Turnovers from larger private activities have smaller public Salaries and the opposite.

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,01

1,00

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

0,00

1,00

1 2


Gro

ss in

co

me (

Eu

ro

)

The in

dex pre

sents

th

e sum

of

the priv

ate

and p

ublic

incom

es, a

chie

ved in

the c

om

munity

.

The turnover weight in the Gross incomes - 1 The index presents the ratio between the Turnover from private businesses and the total

of Gross Incomes. The weight of the public salaries in the total of the salaries in the community - 2 There is a ratio between the total annual paid salaries in the public system compared to

the total annual paid salaries in the community.


DEVELOPMENT OF THE INDUSTRY AND SERVICES

Values calculated in Euro of the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors (industry, services, trade, finance-banks, etc.).

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

11.840,79

256.072.929,69

1

min

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

MAX

9.867,33

213.394.108,08

2


The food products market - 1

Size index estimating the volume of the food products market in a community. The non-food products market - 2 Size index estimating the volume of the non-food products market in a community.


Conclusions The Environment potential also given by the existing channels network in this area for the regularisation of the

water flows and also for irrigation (2,100 Ha in Arad of which effectively irrigated 50 Ha and 1,600 Ha in Timis if which effectively irrigated 1,500 Ha) is not enough used,

the cereals crops placing themselves at values of 4,000 4,500 To/Ha. The total resulted agricultural production is

between 3,000 and 4,000 euro/Ha in the two Counties (fig. 38 reproduced aside). The processing of the primary productions leads to a significant increase of the values

achieved by the Environment, and, implicitly, to a higher trading potential on the market.

Of the total of the Arad County population (430,000 inhabitants), 135,000 are employed and/ or self-employed in the agriculture, and 90,000 work in the secondary and tertiary sectors. In the Timis County, of the total population (680,000 inhabitants)

160,000 are employed and/ or self-employed in the agriculture, and 180,000 work in the secondary and tertiary sectors.

The average salary is of 320 Euro/Capita in the Arad County and of 615 Euro/Capita in the Timis County (fig.48 reproduced aside). The concentration of these salary

incomes takes place in the main urban centres, the two counties capitals, their neighbouring areas, and in few

urban centres in the territory (Snicolau Mare, Chiineu Cri). The demographic growth does

not necessarily follow th

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