Retention and loss, 1962–2012

Tri-Union LEAD Conference,Southern Asia–Pacific Division

Davao City, PhilippinesFebruary 2014

David Trim, Ph.D.Director of Archives, Statistics, and Research

Retention and non-retentionAnecdotal evidence has for some years indicated that the

Adventist Church loses many of its members—including recent converts from evangelistic campaigns

Stories from several divisions, esp. ESD, NSD, SAD, WAD

What are the hard data?

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

Membership

Losses_Death_Dropped_Missing

World Membership and Losses, 1962–2012

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

GC: Gains and Losses -- 1962-2012

Retention: Accessions vs. dropped, 2000–2012

Accessions Dropped (not incl. dead)

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,00013,648,281

5,918,483

Loss rate = 43.364 per hundred

new converts

Total baptized members Total live losses0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,00030,657,430

10,527,042

Global membership and loss, 1965-2012

Net loss rate: 34.338%

Total baptized members Total live losses0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2,017,697

798,932

SSD membership and loss, 1997-2012

Net loss rate = 39.59%

1,218,765

798,932

SSD: Lost compared to retained, 1997–2012

RetainedLost

5,833,223

4,693,819

Gobal dropped vs missing, 1965-2012

Total dropped

Total missing

Missing as % of total lost =

44.588%

Church-growth implicationsChurch growth is doubly impacted by lost members—

our numbers are reduced not just by those who leave but also by those who were never won.

1965–2012, global net accession rate = 8.4 per cent

If the 10 million lost had “recruited” at the standard rate, and all the souls they won had done likewise (etc.) then an extra million members over the 48 years

Of course we will always lose some, so this is only an illustration; but it is a striking one.

Why did They Leave? Why Might They Come

Back? Findings from three global surveys

of Seventh-day Adventists

Two Studies on lapsed Adventists

In 2011, Seventh-day Adventist church leaders, concerned about evidence that a large proportion of its members were leaving the church, decided to carry out worldwide research into the factors that may be involved. Because of the nature of this research, two studies were carried out: one qualitative, one quantitative—both were global.

1. The General Conference strategic planning group contracted the Center for Creative Ministry, an American Adventist research group, to carry out qualitative research, consisting of in-depth interviews, but with results to be summarized in quantitative form.

Two Studies on lapsed Adventists

2. Under the leadership of the General Conference Nurture and Retention Committee, a detailed survey was developed by the Office of Archives, Statistics, and Research (ASTR) with the purpose of it being administered to members who were no longer attending worship services (“left”), along with a companion (and parallel) survey to be administered to members who had previously left the church for a period of time, but had “returned” to active church membership.

Many of the findings of the studies complement each other, which adds confidence to the conclusions. This presentation includes data from both research projects.

Strategic planning-related study A total of 925 interviews were conducted in many parts of the world during 2012. The interviews used a standard interview guide that was approved by the General Conference office of Archives, Statistics and Research. The interviewers were Doctor of Ministry graduates of Andrews University who took the class Field Research in Ministry (GSEM730) from Monte Sahlin and have participated in research projects both as graduate students and since graduating, as well as experienced staff interviewers.

Nurture and Retention Committee StudyYear conducted: 2012

Number of surveys: 2

Respondents:

First survey: Members who no longer attended worship services (“left”)

Second survey: Members who had previously left the church for a period of time, but began attending church again, or returned to active church membership (“returned”)

Survey Details (cont.)Questions:

> Basic demographic information> Attendance of SDA/Non-SDA schools> Five most important causes for initially becoming SDA> Reason for leaving SDA church> Length of time as practicing members and regular church attendance> 20 possible reasons that triggered decision to leave SDA church > Free-form section on why people decide to leave SDA church> Length since last attended SDA church> If returned, length of absence from SDA church

Areas Survey Explored

> Possible connection between Adventist education and decision to leave the church> Frequency of involvement in community service and other spiritual activities > Opinions of organized religion> Exploration of personal beliefs, including authority of Scripture, gift of prophecy manifested in Ellen White, etc.> Degree to which belief in God continued after leaving> Nature of current ties to Adventism> How they felt about the church when they left> Rate of openness to reconnect with SDA church> If attending SDA church again, reason for reconnection