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MIT GAGE Quarterly Report 10/19-12/19 YR 2 Q01 1

Quarterly Report Massachusetts Institute of Technology

GAGE Facility GPS Data Analysis Center Coordinator

Thomas Herring and Mike Floyd

Period: 2020/01/01-2030/03/31

Table of Contents

Summary ........................................................................................................................... 2GPS Analysis of Level 2a and 2b products ................................................................... 2

ITRF2014 transition ...................................................................................................... 2Level 2a products: Rapid products ............................................................................ 2Level 2a products: Final products ............................................................................. 2Level 2a products: 12-week, 26-week supplement products ................................. 3Analysis of Final products: December 15, 2020– March 21, 2020 .......................... 3GLOBK Apriori coordinate file and earthquake files ........................................... 12Snapshot velocity field analysis from the reprocessed PBO analysis. ............... 12Earthquake Analyses: 2019/12/15-2020/03/15 ........................................................ 20

ANET Processing ........................................................................................................... 22References ......................................................................................................................... 24


Summary Under the GAGE2 Facility Data Analysis subaward, MIT has been processing SINEX files Central Washington University (CWU) and aligning them to the GAGE NAM08 reference frame. In this report, we show analyses of the data processing for the period 2019/12/15 to 2020/03/31, time series velocity field analyses for the GAGE reprocessing analyses (1996-2020). Several earthquakes were investigated this quarter but none generated coseismic displacements > 1mm. Analysis files (pbovel files and offset files) are generated monthly and sent via LDM in the middle of each month. We continue to process ANET data. Starting GPS Week 2021 (2018/09/30) only CWU solutions are included. These solutions are in then ANT14 frame as defined in the ITRF2014 plate motion model [Altamimi et al., 2017].

GPS Analysis of Level 2a and 2b products ITRF2014 transition The ITRF2014 re-processing analysis has been completed and the transition from the NAM08 system to NAM14 has been completed. The NAM08 and IGS08 distributions were planned to be discontinued on January 1, 2020. Currently, the ACC is still generating these products with the decision not to re-distribute them being left the to the UNAVCO data services team. Level 2a products: Rapid products Final and rapid level 2a products have been in general generated routinely during this quarter for the CWU solutions. The description of these products, the delivery schedule and the delivery list remain unchanged from the previous quarter and will not be reported here. Level 2a products: Final products The final products are generated weekly and are based on the final JPL orbits and clocks. Finals and rapid solutions are now being generated in the IGS14 system. In this quarter 2038 stations were processed which is 35 less than last


quarter. We are losing sites each quarter most likely due to failed sites. In addition up to 60 sites were processed in the ANET solutions, the same as last quarter. Level 2a products: 12-week, 26-week supplement products Each week we also process the Supplemental (12-week latency) and six months supplemental (26-week latency) analyses from CWU for the main GAGE2 Networks of the Americas stations (NOTA). The delivery schedule for these products is also unchanged. Analysis of Final products: December 15, 2020– March 21, 2020 For this report, we generated the statistics using the ~3 months of CWU results between December 15, 2020 and March 21, 2020. These results are summarized in Table 1 and figures 1. For the three months of the final position time series generated by, we fit linear trends and annual signals and compute the RMS scatters of the position residuals in north, east and up for each station in the analysis. Table 1 shows the median (50%), 70% and 95% limits for the RMS scatters CWU. The detailed histograms of the RMS scatters are shown in Figure 1 CWU. Table 1: Statistics of the fits of 2073 stations for CWU analyzed in the finals analysis between December 15, 2020 and March 21, 2020. Histograms of the RMS scatters are shown in Figure 1. Center North (mm) East (mm) Up (mm) Median (50%) CWU 0.92 0.87 4.67 70% CWU 1.18 1.08 5.65 95% CWU 2.49 2.26 9.49


Figure 1: CWU solution histograms of the North, East and Up RMS scatters of the position residuals for 2038 stations analyzed between December 15, 2020 and March 21, 2020. Linear trends and annual signals were estimated from the time series. For the CWU analysis, we also evaluate the RMS scatters of the position estimates by network type. The figures below are based on our monthly submissions but here we use nominally 3 months of data to evaluate the RMS scatters. In Table 2, we give the median, 70 and 95 percentile limits on the RMS scatters. The geographical distributions of the RMS scatters by network type are shown in Figures 2-7. The values plotted are given in CWU_FIN_Y2Q2.tab.

100200300400500600700800900

1000

Num

ber o

f Sta

tions

0 1 2 3 4 5 NORTH wrms (mm)

Mean (mm) : 1.26 Sigma (mm) : 3.42 Stations: 203850% < 0.92 (mm) 70% < 1.18 (mm) 95% < 2.49 (mm)

100200300400500600700800900

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0 1 2 3 4 5 EAST wrms (mm)


100200300400500600700800900

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f Sta

tions

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 UP wrms (mm)


Scatter-Wrms Histogram : FILE: CWU_FIN_Y2Q2.sumIgnore ALL components of : -Ignore UP components of : -Ignore NORTH components of : -Ignore EAST components of : -


There are 2038 stations in the file for sites that have at least 2 measurements during the month. The contents of the files are of this form: Tabular Position RMS scatters created from CWU_FIN_Y2Q2.sum ChiN/E/U are square root of chisquared degree of freedom of the fits. Values of ChiN/E/U near unity indicate that the estimated error bars are consistent the scatter of the position estimates .Site # N (mm) ChiN E (mm) ChiE U (mm) ChiU Years 1LSU 90 1.0 0.30 1.2 0.35 7.3 0.46 16.91 1NSU 90 0.9 0.29 0.9 0.35 4.9 0.38 16.17 1ULM 90 0.7 0.25 0.8 0.31 5.7 0.44 16.77 7ODM 88 1.2 0.39 0.9 0.33 4.8 0.38 18.92 … ZDV1 89 0.9 0.26 0.8 0.31 5.9 0.47 16.80 ZKC1 89 0.9 0.27 1.0 0.37 6.0 0.46 16.80 ZLA1 88 1.1 0.36 1.3 0.48 5.1 0.40 16.80 ZLC1 89 0.8 0.25 0.7 0.26 4.9 0.39 17.03 ZME1 89 1.0 0.31 0.8 0.31 5.7 0.44 17.03 ZMP1 89 0.9 0.25 0.8 0.31 6.2 0.49 17.27 ZNY1 89 0.9 0.28 1.0 0.39 6.3 0.49 17.18 ZOA1 88 0.7 0.22 0.7 0.27 4.1 0.33 17.72 ZSE1 88 0.8 0.23 0.8 0.33 5.1 0.42 17.18 ZTL4 88 0.8 0.27 1.1 0.39 6.8 0.52 17.37

Table 2: RMS scatter of the position residuals for the CWU solution between December 15, 2020 and March 21, 2020 divided by network type. The division of networks is based on the JAVA script unavcoMetdata.jar with network codes PBO, Nucleus, Mid- SCIGN_USGS, America GAMA, COCONet and Expanded PBO

Network North (mm) East (mm) Up (mm) #Sites Median (50%)

PBO 0.84 0.81 4.17 863 NUCLEUS 0.79 0.74 4.04 205 GAMA 0.80 0.84 6.06 13 COCONet 1.36 1.36 6.17 70 USGS_SCIGN 0.82 0.79 4.18 107 Expanded 1.03 0.95 5.58 780

70% PBO 1.08 1.01 4.67

NUCLEUS 0.94 0.85 4.54 GAMA 0.88 0.90 6.20 COCONet 1.57 1.58 6.98 USGS_SCIGN 1.06 0.96 4.50 Expanded 1.27 1.17 6.33

95%


PBO 2.36 2.05 7.85 NUCLEUS 1.81 1.57 7.83 GAMA 1.17 1.11 7.46 COCONet 2.16 2.42 10.15 USGS_SCIGN 2.00 1.59 7.36 Expanded 2.75 2.53 10.60


Figure 2: Distribution of the RMS scatters of horizontal position estimates from the CWU analysis for the Northern Western United States. The color of the ellipses that give the north and east RMS scatters denotes the network given by the legend in the figure. The small red circle shows the size of 1 mm scatters. Sites shown with black circles have combined RMS scatters in north and east greater than 5 mm or are sites that have no data during this 3-month interval.

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1mm

Network Codes

PBO ExpandedSCIGN USGSCOCONetMid-Am GAMANucleusPBOHigh RMS


Figure 3: Same as Figure 4 except for the Southern Western United States. Black circles show large RMS scatter sites.

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Network Codes



Figure 4: Same as Figure 4 except for the Alaskan region.

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1mm

Network Codes



Figure 5: Same as Figure 4 except for the Central United States

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VLM

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MSOLLOLO

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Figure 6: Same as Figure 4 except for the Eastern United States

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Figure 7: Same as Figure 4 except for the Caribbean region. GLOBK Apriori coordinate file and earthquake files As part of the quarterly analysis we run complete analysis of the time series files and generate position, velocity and other parameter estimates from these time series. These files can be directly used in the GLOBK analysis files sent with the GAGE analysis documentation. The current earthquake and discontinuity files used in the GAGE ACC analyses are All_PBO_eqs.eq All_PBO_ants.eq All_PBO_unkn.eq. The GLOBK apriori coordinate file All_CWU_nam14.apr is the current estimates based on data analysis in this quarterly report. Snapshot velocity field analysis from the reprocessed PBO analysis.

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For this quarterly report, we generate velocity estimates for the reprocessed results and the current GAGE analyses that are in the NAM14 reference frame using the CWU analysis. There are 2628 stations in the CWU solution (same as last quarter). The statistics of the fits to results are shown in Table 3. Because these are cumulative statistics, they are little changed from last quarter. In this analysis, offsets are estimated for antenna changes and earthquakes. Annual signals are estimated and for some earthquakes, logarithmic post-seismic signals are also estimated. The full tables of RMS fit along with the duration of the data used are given in cwu_nam14_200321.tab. The velocity estimates are shown by region and network type in Figures 8-14. The color scheme used is the same as Figures 2-7. The snapshot velocity field file for CWU is cwu_nam08_200321.snpvel. Table 3: Statistics of the fits of 2628 stations analyzed CWU in the reprocessed analysis for data collected between Jan 1, 1996 and March 21, 2020. Center North (mm) East (mm) Up (mm) Median (50%) CWU 1.40 1.35 6.13 70% CWU 1.75 1.68 6.96 95% CWU 3.77 3.57 11.30

In Figures 8-14, different tolerances are used for maximum standard deviation in each of the figures so that regions with small velocity vectors can be displayed at large scales without the plots being dominated by large error bar points. The standard deviations of the velocity estimated are computed using the GLOBK First-order-Gauss-Markov Extrapolation (FOGMEX) model that aims to account for temporal correlations in the time series residuals. This algorithm is also called the “Realistic Sigma” model.


Figure 8: Velocity field estimates for the Pacific north-west from the CWU solution generated using time series analysis and the FOGMEX error model. 95% confidence interval error ellipses are shown. The color scheme of the vectors matches the network type legend in Figure 4. Only velocities with horizontal standard deviations less than 2 mm/yr are shown (this value is reduced from previous reports due the improved velocity sigmas).

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Figure 9: Same as Figure 8 except for South Western United States. Only velocities with horizontal standard deviations less than 2 mm/yr are shown.

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Figure 10: Same as Figure 8 except for Alaska. Only velocities with horizontal standard deviations less than 5 mm/yr are shown

Figure 11: Same as Figure 8 except for Central United States. Only velocities with horizontal standard deviations less than 1 mm/yr are shown.

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Figure 12: Same as Figure 8 except for Western Central United States. Only velocities with horizontal standard deviations less than 1 mm/yr are shown. Anomalous vectors at longitude 250o are in the Yellowstone National Park and most likely are showing volcanic processes.

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Figure 13: Same as Figure 8 except for the Eastern United States. Only velocities with horizontal standard deviations less than 2 mm/yr are shown. The systematic velocity of sites in the Northeast and central US show deviations for current GIA models in the horizontal velocities.

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Figure 14: Same as Figure 8 except for the Caribbean region. Only velocities with horizontal standard deviations less than 5 mm/yr are shown. Earthquake Analyses: 2019/12/15-2020/03/15 We use the NEIC catalog to search for earthquakes that could cause coseismic offsets at the sites analyzed by the GAGE analysis centers. Of the 26 earthquakes examined during this quarter, 2 earthquakes generated displacements more than 1 mm. These have been designated events 50 and 51. Event files have been sent to UNAVCO for both rapid (initial) and final orbit processing. The events also appear in the Kalman filter timeseries offset estimates. The two events that generated co-seismic offsets are the Mw 6.4 8km S of Indios on January 7, 2020 at 08:45 UTC (ANSS(ComCat) us70006vll), event 50, and the Mw 7.7 124km NNW of Lucea on January 28, 2020 at 19:11 UTC (ANSS(ComCat) us60007idc), event 51. Event 50 displaced two sites that have data after the event and event 51 displaced 6 sites with data after the event. There are other GPS sites that might have been displaced by these

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events but there is no recent data from these sites. It is possible data maybe available by the time of the 6 month supplemental runs. The event co-seismic offsets are shown in Figures 15 and 16.

Figure 15: Coseismic offsets from the GAGE event 50, Mw 6.4 8km S of Indios on January 7, 2020 at 08:45 UTC (ANSS(ComCat) us70006vll),

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Mon Jan 27 10:26:53 EST 2020Confidence interval : 95 ChiSquare / dof : 0.00 Formal Errors Scaled by 1.00Relative to NONE Input file : ../CWU/cwu200107_EQ50.b.coff

.


Figure 16: Coseismic offsets from the GAGE event 51, Mw 7.7 124km NNW of Lucea on January 28, 2020 at 19:11 UTC (ANSS(ComCat) us60007idc).

ANET Processing The ANET additional sites are being processed as a separate network and the frame resolved SINEX files will be given in the Antarctica 2014 reference frame (Altamimi et al., 2016, 2017). We label this frame ant14. Time series and SINEX files are generated only for final orbit solutions and are labeled as fanet (instead of final to avoid name conflicts with loose solutions). The IGS14 loose submission files are labeled with “lse14” to differentiate them for the IGS08 loose

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.


submissions which were simply label as loose. The statistics of the time series fits from the CWU solution for this quarter are given in Table 4.

Table 4: Statistics of the fits of 60 stations in the ANET region for CWU analyzed in the final orbit analysis between December 15, 2020 and March 21, 2020. CWU North (mm) East (mm) Up (mm) ANET 1.13 0.91 5.60 ANET 1.23 1.05 7.23 ANET 1.83 2.69 70.64 The histogram to the RMS scatter of the results for this quarter are shown in Figure A.1


Figure A.1: CWU solution histograms of the North, East and Up RMS scatters of the position residuals for 60 stations in Antarctica analyzed between December 15, 2020 and March 21, 2020. Linear trends and annual signals were estimated from the time series.

References Altamimi, Z., P. Rebischung, L. Metivier, and X. Collilieux (2016), ITRF2014: A

new release of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame modeling nonlinear station motions, J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 121, 6109-6131, doi: 10.1002/2016JB013098.

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Altamimi, Z., L. Metivier, P. Rebischung, H. Rouby, X. Collilieux; ITRF2014 plate motion model, Geophysical Journal International, Volume 209, Issue 3, 1 June 2017, Pages 1906-1912, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx136

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