quarterly early warning bulletin for food and agriculture · 2013. 7. 15. · quarterly early...

Quarterly Early Warning Bulletin for Food and Agriculture June 2013 – August 2013

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HIGHLIGHTS

Plague of Malagasy Migratory Locust in Madagascar is underway, affecting half of the country. Rice crop losses due to locusts estimated at 480,000 to 630,000 tonnes. Further damage from swarms expected from June to September (winter season) in the invasion area. Damage caused by locusts and cyclone Hurana expected to result in reduced crop production in 2013, negatively impacting on food security conditions, particularly in south-western and western parts.

Wheat rust diseases (Yellow rust and stem rust) could cause epidemics on wheat in some areas in Africa, Central Asia, and the Near East.

Continued monitoring of the emergent outbreak situation in Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in humans to determine if the virus is linked with an animal reservoir with possible recrudescence later in 2013 and intercontinental cases post Hajj (October 2013).

Avian influenza H7N9 remains a concern. China and neighbouring countries increase their capacities for surveillance prior to September in anticipation of enhancing surveillance for H7N9 and H5N1 in late August, early September.

In Syria, the 2013 wheat production dropped significantly below average due to the escalating civil conflict leading to disruptions in farming activities. Furthermore, livestock sector has been severely affected.

In Central Africa, serious food insecurity conditions prevail due to escalating conflict affecting about 8.4 million people in Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.

In Western Africa, the overall food situation is favourable in most parts of the Sahel following an above-average 2012 cereal harvest. However, a large number of people are still affected by conflict and the lingering effects of 2011/12 food crisis.

In Eastern Africa, although household food security has improved in most countries, serious concerns remain in conflict areas of Somalia, the Sudan, and South Sudan.

World cereal production is forecast to increase by about 7 percent in 2013, helping to replenish global inventories and raise expectations for more stable markets in 2013/14.

The Quarterly Early Warning Bulletin is a product of the collaboration between the Emergency Prevention System (EMPRES) for transboundary animal and plant pests and diseases and food safety threats, and the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), coordinated by the Food Chain Crisis Management Framework (FCC). Data is provided by GIEWS and EMPRES. The Bulletin integrates information on food security and threats to the food chain for the three months ahead.


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REGIONAL ISSUES

AFRICA In Central Africa, serious food insecurity conditions prevail due to escalating conflict affecting about 8.4 million people in Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.

In Western Africa, the overall food situation is favourable in most parts of the Sahel following an above-average 2012 cereal harvest. However, a large number of people are still affected by conflict and the lingering effects of 2011/12 food crisis.

In Eastern Africa, although household food security has improved in most countries, serious concerns remain in conflict areas of Somalia, the Sudan, and South Sudan.

Plague of Malagasy Migratory Locust in Madagascar is underway. Further damage from swarms expected from June to September (winter season) in the invasion area.

Low to moderate risk of Desert Locust outbreak in several regions of Africa (West, North, and East/Horn of Africa).

Moderate level of risk of Wheat Rusts & Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease in Central, East/Horn of Africa and Great Lakes regions.

Moderate to High risk of Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) will continue to negatively affect livelihoods and food security in Central Africa and Great Lakes, and in northwest Africa.

Climatic forecasts indicate that there is low risk of conditions favourable towards an outbreak of Rift valley fever (RVF) in West and North Africa.

Flare ups of Contagious bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP).

Cases of anthrax particularly in Central Africa.

NEAR EAST In Syria, the 2013 wheat production dropped significantly below average due to the escalating civil conflict leading to disruptions in farming activities. Furthermore, livestock sector has been severely affected.

Low to moderate risk of Desert Locust outbreak in several countries in Near East.

Continued monitoring of the emergent outbreak situation in Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in humans to determine if the virus is linked with an animal reservoir and prepare for a possible resurgence later in 2013 (including intercontinental cases during the Hajj in October). The repeated introduction of the infection into the community, the ongoing detection of new illness, and the substantial impact of hospital transmission in this outbreak underscore the importance of investigations into the community source of MERS-CoV. Without the ability to prevent community infection, prevention of health-care transmission will remain a challenge.

Continued spread of Lumpy skin disease (LSD) in cattle through the countries of Israel, West Bank, Lebanon and Jordan, with risks of spread to neighbouring countries. Civil instability may also lead to widespread livestock movements and thus further facilitate disease spread.

Climatic forecasts indicate that there is low risk of conditions favourable towards an outbreak of Rift valley fever (RVF) in Near East.


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ASIA & THE PACIFIC

Avian influenza H7N9 remains a concern. China and neighbouring countries increase their capacities for surveillance prior to September in anticipation of enhancing surveillance for H7N9 and H5N1 in late August, early September.

In endemic countries, Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 outbreaks in poultry are expected to continue at a low level through these months.

Surveillance for H5N1 should be enhanced again in September/October, when the high outbreak season starts and wild birds, which could

potentially be involved in introducing the virus to non-affected areas, start returning to their wintering sites.

Small to moderate outbreaks of anthrax, affecting domestic ruminants, and people touching or consuming sick or dead animals, are predicted in

the regions and areas with seasonal rainfalls. More visceral cases of anthrax tend to be reported (caused by contaminated meat consumption-

visceral and pulmonary cases are life threatening).

EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA

Moderate to high risk of Migratory, Moroccan & Italian Locusts outbreaks.

Low to moderate risk of Wheat yellow rust to develop in highland areas.

The ongoing Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in China, eastern Russia and the North Caucasus region may continue to spread. Important

factors influencing this are the extent to which the type A vaccines in use in the region match this virus strain, and the vaccination strategies

applied. There is high potential to spread west into Central Asia and via animal movements into West Eurasia.

Brucellosis will continue to threaten public and animal health in some countries in Central Asia.

African swine fever (ASF) will continue to threaten the food security of the whole of Eastern Europe. Countries in the region, particularly those that

border the Russian Federation (Ukraine, Belarus), must prepare for a long-term defense of their pig production systems from potential ASF

incursions. Those countries with low biosecurity-dominated pig production systems are the most vulnerable to ASF introduction.

LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN

Mexico neighbouring countries at high risk of introduction of Highly pathogenic avian influenza H7N3 as there is a continuous spread of affecting poultry production and consumption in the country.


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REGION COUNTRY TYPE OF THREAT LEVEL DESCRIPTION

AFRICA Burkina Faso Widespread lack of access

A massive influx of refugees from Mali has put additional pressure on local food markets. Although production recovered significantly in 2012, assistance is still needed in parts, due to the lingering effects of the previous year’s drought-induced food crisis.

Burundi Severe localized food insecurity

In some central and eastern zones, below-average 2013 season A harvest, coupled with high food prices, continue to erode purchasing power of low-income households.

Cameroon Severe localized food insecurity

In North and Far North regions, recurrent climatic shocks in recent years have negatively impacted agricultural activities. This has led to severe food insecurity and malnutrition for about 615 000 people.

Central African Republic

Severe localized food insecurity

Worsening civil insecurity caused the displacement of 206 000 individuals and aggravated an already alarming food security situation. The number of food insecure people in need of humanitarian assistance has sharply increased to 2 million in recent months.

Chad Widespread lack of access

Lingering effects of the 2011 drought, influx of refugees (over 300 000 people from the Sudan’s Darfur region and the Central African Republic) and the return of an estimated 79 000 Chadians from Libya, are putting additional pressure on the local food supply affecting food security.

Threats to the food chain

Moderate Desert Locust. Adults and perhaps a few small swarms expected to appear in central and northern areas. One generation of small-scale breeding will cause locust numbers to increase slightly.

Congo Severe localized food insecurity

Despite the recovery from the floods and the explosion in the capital in 2012, the country still faces significant problems of food insecurity: 216 000 people are food-insecure (8 percent of all households), of which 37 000 people have “poor” food consumption and 179 000 “borderline” food consumption.

Côte d’Ivoire Severe localized food insecurity

Conflict-related damage to agriculture in recent years and the lack of support services mainly in the northern regions. The 2011 post-election crisis forced thousands of people to leave the country and seek refuge, mostly in eastern Liberia where over 61 000 Ivorian refugees were still living as of May 2013.


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Democratic Republic of Congo


Escalation of conflict in recent months has displaced additional 175 000 people increasing the total number of Internally displaced persons (IDPs) to an estimated 2.8 million and 6.4 million people in food and livelihood crisis. Agricultural activities were hindered, especially in eastern parts, while high food prices continue to impede food access. In addition, the country has recently received about 43 000 refugees from the Central African Republic.

Djibouti Widespread lack of access

About 70 000 people, mainly pastoralists in the southeast and northeast areas, affected by

consecutive poor rainy seasons, are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance.

Eritrea Widespread lack of access

Vulnerability to food insecurity due to economic constraints and high food and fuel prices.


Low Desert Locust. Small-scale breeding will cause locust numbers to increase slightly in the

western lowlands.

Moderate Wheat rust diseases (Yellow rust and stem rust) could cause epidemics on wheat.

Ethiopia Severe localized food insecurity

About 2.4 million people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance, mainly

located in regions such as east Amhara, Tigray, east Oromia, south Somali and sweet

potato growing areas of Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR).


Moderate Wheat rust diseases (Yellow rust and stem rust) could cause epidemics on wheat.

High Due to previous Army worm outbreaks in May 2013, serious outbreak expected in

July/August 2013, during the main cropping season.

Gambia Widespread lack of access

Despite some improvement in last year’s national cereal production, assistance is still

needed to overcome the lingering effects of 2011 drought and high food prices.

Guinea Widespread lack of access

Despite improved access to food in recent months, driven mostly by lower prices of

imported commodities, assistance is still needed to overcome the lingering effects of

several years of high food prices and general inflation.

Kenya Threats to the food chain

Moderate Wheat rust diseases (stem rust and yellow rust) could cause epidemics on wheat.

Moderate to high

Risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) in small holder pig farms, negatively impacting food security and livelihoods.


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Lesotho Severe localized food insecurity

Despite a recovery in cereal production in 2013 and stable prices which contributed to improve food security conditions somewhat, assistance is still needed for vulnerable groups due to lingering effects of two consecutive poor harvests in 2011 and 2012.

Liberia Widespread lack of access

Slow recovery from war-related damages, inadequate social services and infrastructure, high food prices and poor market access, and the presence of some 60 000 Ivorian refugees in the country (as of June 2013) leads to continued international support.

Madagascar


Damage caused by the locust and cyclone Hurana expected to result in reduced crop production in 2013, negatively impacting on food security conditions, particularly in south-western and western parts.


High Malagasy Migratory Locust. Plague underway, affecting half of the country. Rice crop losses due to locusts estimated at 480,000 to 630,000 tonnes. Further damage from swarms expected from June to September (winter season) in the invasion area.

Malawi Widespread lack of access

Persistent high food prices continue to erode purchasing power. However, economic conditions have shown some stabilisation, while 2013 maize production is estimated at an above average level and is expected to benefit food security conditions.

Mali Widespread lack of access

Insecurity in northern Mali has disrupted commodity flows and resulted in large population displacement, worsening the already precarious food security situation created by the 2011 drought.


Moderate Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small swarms are likely to arrive in the north and will breed with the onset of the rains, causing locust numbers to increase.

Mozambique Severe localized food insecurity

The loss of 211 000 hectares of cropped land in early 2013 due to flooding, mainly in Gaza province, negatively impacted food security conditions. However, decreasing prices and a good second season crop have improved food security in the affected areas.

Niger Widespread lack of access

The country has been struck by successive severe food crises in recent years that resulted in depletion of household assets and high level of indebtedness. In addition, large numbers of refugees and returning national migrant workers from Mali and Libya placed an increased demand on food.


Moderate Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small swarms are likely to arrive in the north and will breed with the onset of the rains, causing locust numbers to increase.


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Senegal Severe localized food insecurity

Production shortfalls and high food prices in 2012 led to a deterioration of the food

security situation in several parts of the country. Although production recovered

significantly last year, assistance is still needed in parts.

Sierra Leone Widespread lack of access

Slow recovery from war-related damage. Depreciation of currency led to higher inflation

negatively affecting households’ purchasing power and food security conditions.

Somalia Severe localized food insecurity

About 1 million people are estimated to be in need of emergency assistance, mainly in the

pastoral central and northwestern coastal areas including Internally displaced persons

(IDPs).

South Africa Threats to the food chain

Low Climatic forecasts indicate that there is low risk of favourable conditions for an outbreak of

Rift valley fever (RVF) during this period.

South Sudan Severe localized food insecurity

The number of people estimated as severely food insecure, mainly affected by civil

insecurity, trade restrictions and floods, increased to about 1.2 million.


Moderate Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) might cause epidemics in South Sudan.

Sudan Severe localized food insecurity

The number of people estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance, mainly in

conflict-affected areas, increased to about 4.3 million.


Moderate Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small swarms expected to appear in central

areas and breed, causing locust numbers to increase slightly.

Tanzania Threats to the food chain

Moderate Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) and wheat rusts (yellow and stem) might cause

epidemics.

Low Red Locust threat.

Uganda Threats to the food chain

Moderate Stem rust could cause epidemics on wheat.

Moderate Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) might cause epidemics in Uganda.


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Zimbabwe Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies

Maize production in 2013 is expected to remain stagnant, at below average level, and despite relatively stable prices the production short-falls are anticipated to result in stressed food security conditions, particularly in southern parts.

NEAR EAST Algeria Threats to the food chain

Low Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small swarms appearing in the south in June will move to northern Sahel.

Egypt Threats to the food chain

Low to moderate

Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small swarms will move southwards to the summer breeding areas in Sudan. Residual populations may persist along Lake Nasser.

Moderate Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections continue to be reported in poultry, at a low level through the reporting period as it is not flu season.

Continued outbreaks of Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are likely to spread with risk of incursion to neighbouring countries, with continued potential introductions of a new serotype.

Iraq Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies

Severe civil insecurity.

Jordan Threats to the food

chain High Continued spread of Lumpy skin disease (LSD) in cattle through the country, with risks of

spread to neighbouring countries. Civil instability may also lead to widespread livestock movements and thus further facilitate disease spread.

Lebanon Threats to the food

chain High Continued spread of Lumpy skin disease (LSD) in cattle through the country, with risks of

spread to neighbouring countries. Civil instability may also lead to widespread livestock movements and thus further facilitate disease spread.

Libya Threats to the food chain

Low Desert Locust. Locusts will decline as adult groups and perhaps a few small swarms move in June to the northern Sahel.

Mauritania Widespread lack of access

Lingering effects of the 2011 sharp drop in production resulted in depletion of household assets. The country is also affected by high international food prices due to its high import dependency. Moreover, more than 74 000 Malian refugees have been registered in the southeastern part of the country.


Moderate Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small swarms may arrive in the south and

will breed with the onset of rains, causing locust numbers to increase.


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Morocco Threats to the food chain

Low Desert Locust. Locusts will decline as adult groups and perhaps a few small swarms move

in June to the northern Sahel.

Saudi Arabia Threats to the food chain

Low Desert Locust. Locust infestations will decline as adult move to summer breeding areas in

Sudan and perhaps Yemen.

Moderate Continued monitoring of the emergent outbreak situation in Middle East Respiratory

Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in humans to determine if the virus is linked with an

animal reservoir and prepare for a possible resurgence later in 2013 (including

intercontinental cases during the Hajj in October). The repeated introduction of the

infection into the community, the ongoing detection of new illness, and the substantial

impact of hospital transmission in this outbreak underscore the importance of

investigations into the community source of MERS-CoV. Without the ability to prevent

community infection, prevention of health-care transmission will remain a challenge.

Syrian Arab Republic

Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies

Due to worsening civil conflict, about 4 million people are estimated to be facing severe

food insecurity. Although, some international food assistance is provided, the Syrian

refugees are also putting strain on other countries in the region.


High Increased risk of spread of Tranboundary animal diseases (TADs) including Foot-and-mouth

disease (FMD) and Lumpy skin disease (LSD) due to civil instability with potential disease

incursions into neighbouring countries.

West Bank and Gaza Strip


High Continued spread of Lumpy skin disease (LSD) in cattle through the country, with risks of

spread to neighbouring countries. Civil instability may also lead to widespread livestock

movements and thus further facilitate disease spread.

Yemen Widespread lack of access

The severely food-insecure population in need of emergency food assistance is estimated at over 10 million people (46 percent of the population) as a result of high levels of poverty, prolonged conflict and high prices of food and fuel.


Moderate Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small swarms may arrive in the interior and will breed with the onset of the rains, causing locust numbers to increase.


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ASIA & THE PACIFIC

Afghanistan Severe localized food insecurity

Some groups, particularly Internally displaced persons (IDPs) displaced by the conflict, returnees from Pakistan and natural disaster-affected households are faced with increased food insecurity.


Moderate Moroccan Locust outbreak.

Bangladesh Threats to the food chain

Moderate Due to seasonality it is expected an increase of the number of cases of Anthrax in animals and potentially in humans.

Low to

moderate

Seasonal risk of anthrax. Food safety risks linked to insufficient ante mortem inspection.

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

Widespread lack of access

May to August is a lean period for much of the population in the country. Despite improved cereal harvest of the 2012 main season and near normal outcome of the ongoing harvest of the 2013 early season (winter/spring), chronic food insecurity exists. An estimated 2.8 million vulnerable people require food assistance until the next harvest in October.

India Threats to the food chain

Low Desert Locust. Small-scale breeding will cause locust numbers to increase slightly in Rajasthan.

Low to

moderate

Small outbreaks of anthrax on small ruminants. Human cases limited to cutaneous infections. Food safety risks linked to insufficient ante mortem inspection.

Moderate to high

Continued risk of spread of a highly virulent Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in the far north east of the country; which may be reflective of regional spread from a bordering country.

Pakistan Threats to the food chain

Low Desert Locust. Small-scale breeding will cause locust numbers to increase slightly along the Indian border in Cholistan and Tharparkar.

Viet Nam Threats to the food chain

Moderate to high

Begin to increase capacity for avian influenza H7N9 surveillance in poultry in China and neighbouring countries prior to September in anticipation of enhancing surveillance for H7N9 and H5N1 in late August, early September.


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EUROPE &

CENTRAL

ASIA

Armenia


Low Italian Locust. Local infestations.

Low to moderate

Wheat yellow rust might develop in highland areas.

Azerbaijan Threats to the food chain

Low Moroccan Locust . Local infestations.

Low to moderate


Belarus Threats to the food chain

Moderate to high

Continued risk for introduction of African swine fever (ASF) from movement of contaminated products from infected domestic pigs and infected wild boar from daily border crossings from the Russian Federation.

Georgia


Low to moderate


Moderate to high

Ongoing Moroccan & Italian Locusts outbreaks.

High Risk of introduction of Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) from the neighbouring country to the north.

Israel Threats to the food chain

High Desert Locust. Adult groups will form in June and threaten crops prior to migration to summer breeding areas in Sudan.

Continued spread of Lumpy skin disease (LSD) in cattle through the country, with risks of spread to neighbouring countries. Civil instability may also lead to widespread livestock movements and thus further facilitate disease spread.

Kazakhstan


High Ongoing Moroccan & Italian Locusts outbreaks. More than 4 million ha treated.

Low to

moderate


Moderate to

high

Recent Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursions to North Caucasus and East Kazakhstan have potential to escape outside of vaccination zones and develop into a larger scale epidemics unless properly controlled with a risk of further spread of FMD within the country and re-introduction across the border from neighbouring China.


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Kyrgyzstan


Despite the expected good cereal harvest, the high food prices are still affecting the purchasing power of the poorest and vulnerable families. In addition, socio-political tensions still exist in Jalalabad, Osh, Batken and Issykul Oblasts.


Low to moderate


High Italian Locust outbreak.

Russian

Federation


High Moroccan & Italian Locusts outbreaks.

Low to moderate


High African swine fever (ASF) in Russian Federation is likely to further expand both in wild boar populations and in domestic pigs in multiple places in Southern and Central parts of the country. Ukraine and Belarus to be on very high alert from July to November, when virus prevalence in the populations is at its highest level and movement of people due to summer vacations intensifies.

Tajikistan Threats to the food chain

Moderate to high

Moroccan & Italian Locusts outbreaks.

Low to moderate


Turkmenistan Threats to the food chain

Moderate Moroccan Locust outbreak.

Low to moderate


Ukraine


High Continued risk for introduction of African swine fever (ASF) from movement of

contaminated products from infected domestic pigs and infected wild boar from daily

border crossings from the Russian Federation.

Uzbekistan Threats to the food chain

Moderate to high

Migratory Locust outbreak.

Low to moderate



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LATIN

AMERICA &

CARIBBEAN

Haiti Severe localized food insecurity

Vulnerable households affected by sharply reduced 2012 food production, increasing food

prices and lingering effects of damage caused by hurricanes in 2012.


Moderate Continuous spread of Teschovirus and Classical swine fever (CSF) in the country affecting

swine production and food security and livelihoods.

Mexico


High Continuous spread of Highly pathogenic avian influenza H7N3 affecting poultry production

and consumption. Neighbouring countries at high risk of introduction of Highly pathogenic

avian influenza H7N3 from Mexico.

High Food safety. Recent outbreak of clenbuterol intoxication indicating use of beta-agonists as

anticatabolic drugs above authorized levels on farm animals.

For more information:

Food Chain Crisis Management Framework (FCC)

Mona Chaya, FCC Coordinator

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.fao.org/foodchain

Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS)

Email: [email protected]

Web: http://www.fao.org/giews
mailto:[email protected]://www.fao.org/foodchainmailto:[email protected]://www.fao.org/giews

quarterly early warning bulletin for food and agriculture · 2013. 7. 15. · quarterly early...

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