quantifying natural and technological disaster impact methodology and applications
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Quantifying natural and technological disaster impact Methodology and applications. Femke Vos. CRED, University of Louvain, Belgium. 2 July 2009 – Copenhagen. Overview. Research framework at CRED EM-DAT database Global and European disaster statistics MICRODIS - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Quantifying natural andQuantifying natural andtechnological disaster impacttechnological disaster impact
Methodology and applicationsMethodology and applications
CRED, University of Louvain, BelgiumCRED, University of Louvain, Belgium
Femke VosFemke Vos
2 July 2009 – Copenhagen2 July 2009 – Copenhagen
OverviewOverview
• RESEARCH FRAMEWORK AT CRED• EM-DAT DATABASE• GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN DISASTER STATISTICS• MICRODIS• PRIORITIES IN RESEARCH• ONGOING ACTIVITIES AND FUTURE PROJECTS
CREDCRED
NaturalDisaster
Research
CivilConflict
Research
Training and Capacity Building(e.g. APHES Summer Course)
Training and Capacity Building(e.g. APHES Summer Course)
Database and information support(e.g. EM-DAT, CE-DAT)
Database and information support(e.g. EM-DAT, CE-DAT)
Emergency Events Database, created in 1988Emergency Events Database, created in 1988
Project funded by OFDA/USAIDProject funded by OFDA/USAID
Occurrence and impacts of over 18,000 natural andOccurrence and impacts of over 18,000 natural and technological disasters from 1900 until presenttechnological disasters from 1900 until present
ObjectiveObjective: : Provide evidence-base to humanitarian andProvide evidence-base to humanitarian and development actors at national and international levels:development actors at national and international levels:
scientific research with a development agendascientific research with a development agenda
What is EM-DAT?What is EM-DAT?
• Transparent conventions regarding Transparent conventions regarding data sources and internal protocoldata sources and internal protocol
• Standard data templates Standard data templates
• Global and coherent dataGlobal and coherent data
EM-DATEM-DAT
•Disaster Number (Unique ID)
•Disaster Group/ Type/ Subtype
•Name
•Criteria
Disaster information
•Country/ Continent/ Region
•Location
•Latitude/ Longitude
Geographical information
•Year
•Start and End dates
•Local time
Temporal information
•Origin
•Associated Disasters
•Magnitude / Scale
Characteristics
•OFDA Response
•Request for Int. Assistance
•Declaration State of Emergency
•Aid Contribution
International appeal
•Deaths•Injured•Homeless•Affected•Total Affected=Injured+Homeless+Affected
Human impact
•Estimated Damages
(direct/ indirect; by sector)
•Insured Losses
•Reconstruction Cost
Economic impact
•Impact on Infrastructure:houses, bridges, hospitals, crops,roads …. damaged/ destroyed
•Sectors affected: Industry,Sanitation,Communication, …
Sector impact
Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
EM-DAT standard data templateEM-DAT standard data template
Natural disasters in EM-DATNatural disasters in EM-DAT1950-20081950-2008
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Num
ber
of n
atur
al d
isas
ters
Years
Storms
Flood, Mass mov. Wet
Earthquake, Volcano, Mass mov. Dry
Drought, Wildfire, Extreme temp.
Epidemics, Insect infestations
OFDA created (1964)
CRED created & OFDAbegan compiling (1973)
EM-DAT created (1988)
Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Num
ber
of n
atur
al d
isas
ters
Years
Storms
Flood, Mass mov. Wet
Earthquake, Volcano, Mass mov. Dry
Drought, Wildfire, Extreme temp.
Epidemics, Insect infestations
OFDA created (1964)
CRED created & OFDAbegan compiling (1973)
EM-DAT created (1988)
Natural disasters in EM-DATNatural disasters in EM-DAT1950-20081950-2008
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Num
ber
of n
atur
al d
isas
ters
Years
Storms
Flood, Mass mov. Wet
Earthquake, Volcano, Mass mov. Dry
Drought, Wildfire, Extreme temp.
Epidemics, Insect infestations
OFDA created (1964)
CRED created & OFDAbegan compiling (1973)
EM-DAT created (1988)
Source: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/23/gore-pulls-slide-of-disaster-trends/?ref=science
Al Gore quote: Al Gore quote: ““Human-driven climate change is creating weather-related disasters that Human-driven climate change is creating weather-related disasters that are completely unprecedented”are completely unprecedented”
Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Num
ber
of n
atur
al d
isas
ters
Years
Storms
Flood, Mass mov. Wet
Earthquake, Volcano, Mass mov. Dry
Drought, Wildfire, Extreme temp.
Epidemics, Insect infestations
OFDA created (1964)
CRED created & OFDAbegan compiling (1973)
EM-DAT created (1988)
Where do disasters occur & how often? Where do disasters occur & how often? 1989-20081989-2008
Occurrence KilledAffected (million)
Econ damage (US$ billion)
Africa 874 23,735 233 18Americas 1,628 87,145 108 727Asia 2,521 1,011,721 3,858 907Europe 953 88,671 29 270Oceania 272 3,560 18 23Total 6,248 1,214,832 4,247 1,946
Occurrence KilledAffected (million)
Econ damage (US$ billion)
Africa 14.0% 2.0% 5.5% 0.9%Americas 26.1% 7.2% 2.5% 37.4%Asia 40.3% 83.3% 90.9% 46.6%Europe 15.3% 7.3% 0.7% 13.9%Oceania 4.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.2% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
•Human impact essentially concentrated in Asia: 83% killed; 91% affectedHuman impact essentially concentrated in Asia: 83% killed; 91% affected
•Europe and Africa report a similar number of disastersEurope and Africa report a similar number of disasters
•Asia: estimation of damage costs per capita= 225 US$Asia: estimation of damage costs per capita= 225 US$
•Europe: estimation of damage costs per capita= 325 US$Europe: estimation of damage costs per capita= 325 US$
Disaster distribution by regionDisaster distribution by region1989- 20081989- 2008
Number of disaster eventsNumber of disaster eventsby region (%)by region (%)
Disaster mortalityDisaster mortalityby region (%)by region (%)
Economic damage costsEconomic damage costsby region (%)by region (%)
0.4%0.7%
98.8%
0.1%
Africa
Americas
Asia
Europe
Oceania
14%
26%
40%
15%
5%
Africa
Americas
Asia
Europe
Oceania
2.0%
7.2%
83.3%
7.3%
0.3%
Africa
Americas
Asia
Europe
Oceania
1%
37%47%
14%
1%
Africa
Americas
Asia
Europe
Oceania
Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
Disasters in Europe:Disasters in Europe:What kinds occur most frequently?What kinds occur most frequently?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Floods & mass mov. wet
Storms
Earthquake, volcano & mass mov. dryEpid. & insect infest.
Drought, extr. temp & wildfires
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Floods & mass mov. wet
Storms
Earthquake, volcano & mass mov. dryEpid. & insect infest.
Drought, extr. temp & wildfires
Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
3%7%
13%
39%
31%
7%
Disaster occurrence
Drought Earthquake* Extreme temperature Flood**Storm VolcanoWildfire
Natural disasters in Europe:Natural disasters in Europe:shares of the pie 1989-2008 shares of the pie 1989-2008
3%7%
13%
39%
31%
7%
Disaster Occurrence
Drought Earthquake* Extreme temperature Flood**Storm VolcanoWildfire
36%
2%3%
27%
28%
4%
No. affected people
8%7%
7%
40%
33%
5%
Economic damages
• Floods and storms are the major sources of natural perils• Drought affected the largest number of people
* Includes dry mass movements** Includes wet mass movements
Technological disaster distributionTechnological disaster distributionin Europein Europe
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Industrial Accident Transport Accident Miscellaneous accident
Number of disasters
Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
Number of technological disasters in Number of technological disasters in Europe 1989-2008Europe 1989-2008
CountryTransport Accident
Industrial Accident
Miscellaneous accident
Russia 71 29 43Spain 30 6 5Italy 27 1 7France 21 6 16United Kingdom 20 6 4Greece 17 1 1Soviet Union 16 4 2Ukraine 14 20 5Germany 12 10 4Norway 9 1 0
Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
WHAT IS MICRODIS?WHAT IS MICRODIS?A multidisciplinary consortium dedicated to a common goalA multidisciplinary consortium dedicated to a common goal
MICRODIS focuses on the MICRODIS focuses on the micromicro level of level of disdisasters.asters.
Health, SocialHealth, Social and and Economic Economic impacts have been recognized as the key impacts have been recognized as the key thematic areas in understanding extreme events and their relation to thematic areas in understanding extreme events and their relation to
human populations.human populations.
Social Impacts Social Impacts GroupGroup
Health Impacts Health Impacts GroupGroup
Economic Economic Impacts GroupImpacts Group
Integration Integration GroupGroup
Key characteristics of MICRODISKey characteristics of MICRODIS
• 16 field studies within a coordinated 16 field studies within a coordinated framework of analysisframework of analysis
• yield yield 16 primary data-sets 16 primary data-sets from disaster-from disaster-affected populations on-siteaffected populations on-site
• outputs: outputs: – standard methods to measure impacts in standard methods to measure impacts in
human populationshuman populations– 16 comparable datasets for analysis16 comparable datasets for analysis
Priority:Priority:Data for monitoring progressData for monitoring progress
What do we need:What do we need:
Standardized definitions
Inclusion criteria
Standard data templates
What can be done:What can be done:
Establish baselines
Monitoring
Comparability across space and time
Priority:Priority:Human health and acuteHuman health and acute
climate eventsclimate events
How do acute climate events affect the How do acute climate events affect the environment and ecology, leading to environment and ecology, leading to changes in disease transmission patterns?changes in disease transmission patterns?
Ongoing activities and potential Ongoing activities and potential collaborations at CREDcollaborations at CRED
• CEHAPIS – WHO – ECCEHAPIS – WHO – EC– Assessment tools for climate change-related health Assessment tools for climate change-related health
impactsimpacts
• Research on climate signals in disaster dataResearch on climate signals in disaster data– In collaboration with NOAAIn collaboration with NOAA
• Natural disaster research programNatural disaster research program– Human impact of natural disastersHuman impact of natural disasters– MICRODIS & similar field studies in EuropeMICRODIS & similar field studies in Europe
• Spatial analysis of EM-DAT dataSpatial analysis of EM-DAT data
THANK YOU …THANK YOU …
CONTACTCONTACT
CREDCRED30, Clos Chapelle-aux-Champs30, Clos Chapelle-aux-Champs1200 Brussels – Belgium1200 Brussels – BelgiumTel: +32-2-764-3327/Fax-3441Tel: +32-2-764-3327/Fax-3441E-Mail: [email protected]: [email protected]
www.cred.bewww.cred.be
Ranking EuropeRanking Europedisasters and their impact disasters and their impact
Top 10 countries in 1989-2008Incidence Victims Econ damage
Russia Spain Italy
France Russia Germany
Romania Albania United Kingdom
Italy France France
United Kingdom Moldova Rep Spain
Germany Ukraine Greece
Spain Macedonia FRY Switzerland
Greece United Kingdom Soviet Union
Bulgaria Lithuania Denmark
Austria Germany Austria
Highest 120 (Russia) 6,044,944 (Spain) 34 US$ Billion (Italy)Lowest 28 (Austria) 578,699 (Germany) 4 US$ Billion (Austria)
• High concentration in few countries (France, Spain, Germany)• Russia most hit (wide geographical area)• Italy the worst hit in terms of economic damages
Natural disaster typesNatural disaster types
NATURAL DISASTERS
Epidemic o Viral Infectious Disease o Bacterial Infectious
Disease o Parasitic Infectious
Disease o Fungal Infectious
Disease o Prion Infectious Disease Insect Infestation Animal Stampede
Earthquake Volcano Mass Movement (Dry) o Rockfall o Landslide o Avalanche o Subsidence
Extreme Temperature
o Heat Wave o Cold Wave o Extreme Winter
Condition Drought Wildfire o Forest Fire o Land Fire
Flood o General Flood o Flash Flood o Storm Surge / Coastal
Flood Mass Movement
(Wet) o Rockfall o Landslide o Avalanche o Subsidence
Storm o Tropical Cyclone o Extra-Tropical Cyclone o Local Storm
Biological Geophysical
Climatological
Hydrological Meteorological
Hydro-Meteorological
Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) & MunichRe, 2009: “Disaster Category Classification for Operational Databases - Common Accord”, June (unpublished)
Number of technological disastersNumber of technological disasters1960-20081960-2008
Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Source: EM-DAT - The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Num
ber o
f rep
orte
d di
sast
ers
Industrial Accident Miscellaneous accident Transport Accident
Technological disaster typesTechnological disaster types
Disaster Generic Group
Disaster Main Type
Disaster Sub-Type
Technological Industrial accidents Chemical spill Collapse Explosion Fire Gas leak Poisoning Radiation Other
Miscellaneous accidents Collapse Explosion Fire Other
Transport accidents Air Rail Road Water