qmdm bop ppt

7/23/2019 Qmdm Bop Ppt

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/qmdm-bop-ppt 1/20

A short overview onBalance of Payment ofPakistan for FY 12 – 13

Source: SBP

Presented y:

Faisal Ahmad !afri "#$%3$&

Farhan Shari' "#$%(2&



)loal *conomic +eview

• Eurozone crisis and US fscal cli

• The largest economy in Latin America – Brazil,or instance, decelerated sharply, as priate

inestment ailed to respond to an am!itiouspolicy stimulus"

• #n contrast, $iddle Eastern countries perormed%ell on the !ac& o frm oil prices, as %ell as

inrastructure e'pansion in the ()) countries"• #ndia, on the other hand, gre% at the slo%est

pace in a decade during *+-"



)loal *conomic +eview• )apital .o%s to emerging mar&ets hae declinedsince /une 01-, %hen the *ed .agged the needto rein in its monetary stimulus"

•

Asset prices hae remained olatile since then,and rising long2term US !ond rates haetriggered a .ight to saety that has ta&en a tollon #ndia, Tur&ey and Brazil"

• #$* in 3cto!er 01-, reised do%n%ards itsorecast or glo!al economic gro%th or 01- and014, compared %ith its /uly 01- orecast" #neect, the glo!al outloo& appears %ea&"



Pakistan *,ternal Accounts• 5emained under stress li&e *+0

• )an !e traced to heay repayments and out.o%s

to the #$*, #*#s, and anemic oreign inestments"• 64th *7 reseres e'hausted to pay or the US8 0"1

!illion e'ternal defcit, and US8 0"9 !illion #$*repayments

•

SB: reseres to all to US8 ;"1 !illion !y end2*+-,rom US8 1"< !illion at the start o the year"

• :=5 continued to depreciate> the e'change ratesurpassed 5s ??" per US@



Pakistan *,ternal Accounts• #mproement in the current account !y an in.o% o US8

"< !illion under )oalition Support *und and decline in

the trade defcit"• or&er remittances reached US8 -"? !illion

• The size o the )A defcit %as smaller compared to lastyear, and the aerage o the past 4 years

• The real issue in the e'ternal sector in *+- %as the drop

in fnancial in.o%s caused !y an unaora!le fnancingmi' in *+1? and *+1 s&e%ed to%ards de!t fnanceC,%hich necessitated large repayments in *+0 and *+-

• E'ternal de!t sericing in *+- stood at US8 ;"1 !illion>e'ternal de!t sericing in *+- eDuals the liDuid *7

reseres %ith SB: at end /une -"



Pakistan *,ternal Acccount



• 3n aggregate, :a&istans largest current accountsurplus is rom the US, ollo%ed !y the EU" 3n the

contrary, :a&istan incurs a huge defcit against )hina,middle2eastern countries, and palm oil e'porterse"g", $alaysia and #ndonesiaC" This heaily s&e%eddistri!ution o our net in.o%s ma&es us ulnera!le toshoc&s in the US and EU economies"

• ith the approal o a -2year US8 ;";4 !illionE'tended *und *acility rom the #$*, *7 pressures aree'pected to remain muted in *+4"- ith the #$* on!oard, fnancial support rom other #*#s is also li&ely,!ringing some comort to the domestic *7 mar&et"



-urrent Account• @efcit o US8 0"9 !illion in *+-, %hich

%as nearly hal the defcit seen last yeardue to the )S* in.o%s o US8 "< !illion in*+- and remittances continued their

increasing trend• Slight decline in trade defcit



Financial and -a.ital

Account• The surplus in the fnancial account declined

su!stantially during *+-" This decline can !etraced to net repayments o e'ternal de!ts, %hich

oset nominal increase in oreign inestmentsduring the year



Forei/n direct investments• *@#s pic&ed up in *+- to reach US8 "- !illion,

compared %ith Fust US8 1"; !illion last year"

• Go%eer, the leel o *@# remains glaringly lo%

due to political uncertainty "• Biggest roleH US8 911 million !y Unileer



0et and iaility nows• Smaller increase in goernment loans, as

dis!ursements remained lo%er than *+0,%hereas amortization increased sharply" $ost othe decline in resh loans %as seen in !ilateral

goernment loans rom )hina, %hich hadproided US8 911 million support last year

• Total e'ternal de!t stoc& sho%ed a net decline oUS8 9"I !illion during *+-" This decline %as

e'plained principally !y repayment o #$* SBAloan US8 0"9 !illionC, as %ell as realuationgains US8 0"; !illionC



+eserves

• LiDuid *7 reseres %ere depleted !y US84"- !illion during *+-, dou!led comparedto the preious year" SB:s gross liDuidreseres reached a 992months lo% o US8;"1 !illion !y end2/une *+-

• The pressure on the :=5 during *+4 can

!e traced to prior action to purchase *7rom the inter!an& mar&et"



*,chan/e +ate• @espite a sharp all in the countrys *7 reseres in *+-

compared to last year, the depreciation o :a& 5upee %aslimited

• :=5 depreciated !y 4"9 percent during *+-, compared%ith ?" percent in *+ 0

• This improement can !e traced to a reduction in thecurrent account defcit in *+-, %hich reduced pressure onthe :a& 5upee



*,chan/e +ate vs F4



5rade Accounts• :a&istans trade defcit during *+- %as US8 01"4

!illion, a contraction o 4"1 percent during theyear"

• #mproement in the trade account %as entirely on

account o a recoery in e'ports"• $ain impetus to e'ports gro%th came rom ood,

te'tiles and Fe%elry" @uty ree access o I9 itemsto the EU mar&et also helped"



*,.orts• $ain impetus came rom ruits, spices in ood

items

• )otton yarn, cotton a!rics in te'tile items• The increase in e'ports can !e attri!uted to mi' o

price and Duantum impacts

• Te'tile e'ports gre% !y 9"?J due to demand rom

)hina, G=, EU and US• (S: K status also e'pected to help

• *ood e'ports sho%ed 0"J gro%th, meat to =SA%ent up

•

*ruits and egeta!les up !y I";J



m.orts• #ncrease o 1"J, compared to "J o last

year

• $achinery imports increased !y "-J

• (old imports increased sharply due toincrease in Fe%elry as Fe%elry e'ports

increased !y 0?J• *ertilizer imports declined

• #ron and steel imports increased !y 9"4J



5hank You

qmdm bop ppt

Documents