qi li, ucd geary institute kasper richter, world bank patrick paul walsh, ucd geary institute...
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Qi Li, UCD Geary Institute
Kasper Richter, World Bank
Patrick Paul Walsh, UCD Geary Institute
Fertility, Ageing and Socio-Economic Conditions in Thailand
Third Annual Research Conference on Population, Reproductive Health, and Economic Development
Dublin, Ireland January 16-18, 2009
How do Thai Firms Perceive the Investment Climate?
Thai firms identify several categories of concerns:
• Dissatisfaction with overall economic situation (macroeconomic instability, economic policy uncertainty, insufficient demand for products, competition from imports)
• Inadequate supply of skills (skills and education of available workers, skilled labor shortage)
• Concerns with regulations and bureaucratic burden (tax administration and tax rates, bureaucratic burden, labor regulations, import regulations)
• Infrastructure and support services (electricity, utility prices, lack of business support services, lack of finance, inadequate supply of infrastructure)
Age Structure by Urban and Rural in Year 1991, 1995 and 2000
0
0. 05
0. 1
0. 15
0. 2
0. 25
0- 10 10- 20 20- 30 30- 40 40- 50 50- 60 60+
1991
1995
2000
Rural
0
0. 05
0. 1
0. 15
0. 2
0. 25
0- 10 10- 20 20- 30 30- 40 40- 50 50- 60 60+
1991
1995
2000
Urban
Ageing Index by Area
.06
.08
.1
.12
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
Urban Rural
ageing_index
period Graphs by muni
Fertility by Season and Urban and Rural during 1991 – 2000
.04
.05
.06
.07
.08
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
fert
ility
periodGraphs by area
One year Inward Migration by Region and Age Cohort during 1991 – 2000
0.0
5.1
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
imm
i_are
a
periodGraphs by area
Age 10 –20 Age 20 –30
0.0550 0.0841
0.0
5.1
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
imm
i_are
a
periodGraphs by area
0.0
5.1
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
imm
i_are
a
periodGraphs by area
0.0
5.1
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
imm
i_are
a
periodGraphs by area
0.0
5.1
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
imm
i_are
a
periodGraphs by area
Age 50 – 60 0.0142
* 1: Urban Areas; 2: Rural Areas
0.0394
0.0
5.1
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
imm
i_are
a
periodGraphs by area
0.0222
Under Three Years Inward Migration by Region and Age Cohort during 1991 – 2000
Age 10 –20 Age 20 – 30
0.1542 0.2696
0.2
.4
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
imm
i_are
a
periodGraphs by area
0.2
.4
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
imm
i_are
a
periodGraphs by area
0.2
.4
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
imm
i_are
a
periodGraphs by area
0.2
.4
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
imm
i_are
a
periodGraphs by area
0.2
.41990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
imm
i_are
a
periodGraphs by area
Age 50 – 60 0.0474
* 1: Urban Areas; 2: Rural Areas
0.1341 0.0717
Waged and Unwaged Income Level in Thailand during 1991 – 2000
11.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
waged/u
nw
aged
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000period
waged unwaged
Waged and Unwaged Income Level By
Urban and Rural during 1991 – 2000
Waged Unwaged
2000
4000
6000
8000
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
wage
area
periodGraphs by area
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
wage
upar
ea
periodGraphs by area
Waged and Unwaged Employment Share By Urban and Rural during 1991 – 2000 By
Year
.2.3
.4.5
.6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000period
waged_share_rural_y unwaged_share_rural_ywaged_share_urban_y unwaged_share_urban_y
Waged and Unwaged Income Level By Urban and Rural during 1991 – 2000
11
.21
.41
.61
.8
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
wage_women unwage_women
period
Graphs by area
* The initial levels are normalized to unit.
Childbearing Women Participation Rate By Urban and Rural Areas
.2.4
.6.8
1
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
part
ici_
wom
en
periodGraphs by area
Waged and Unwaged Employment Share of Childbearing
Women By Urban and Rural during 1991 – 2000 .3
.4.5
.6.7
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1 2
wageshare_women unwageshare_women
period
Graphs by area
Economic Effects on Age Structure Change through Fertility RateFertility Urban Rural
Short Immigration
3.130* Rural > Urban
Long Immigration
-2.765* Rural > Urban
Short Immigration
-1.913*Urban > Rural
Long Immigration
1.777*Urban > Rural
Waged income Young/Old 12.841* 2.728*
Unwaged income Young/Old -5.582* 0.321
Waged Income (Childbearing) -1.384* -0.621*
Unwaged Income (Childbearing) 1.249* -0.097
Pension -1.561* 1.296*
Childbearing Women
-1.633* -0.148*
Employment Structure
Waged/Unwaged
Public Sector -3.025* 0.241
Farm -0.211 0.205*
Bangkok -1.782*
North -0.646* 0.226
Northeast 0.105 0.520*
South -0.127 0.435*
Economic Effects on Age Structure through Mortality Rate (Urban)
•The corresponding economic variables at cohort level have been controlled, such as Waged income, Unwaged income, Pension and Education at cohort level. And we also control some cohort structure variables, such as gender structure of cohorts.
A: Urban
Mortality 15 – 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60 60 - 70
Waged Income -0.824* 0.082 -0.313* 0.032 -0.062* -0.378 Unwaged Income 0.341 0.236 0.322* -0.207* -0.112* -0.119
Pension 0.313 0.418 0.128 2.265 -3.556* -1.32* Gender 0.022 -0.194 -2.094* 3.852* -2.073* 0.00 Participation
Rate 0.442 0.123 -0.247 -0.534* 1.268 -1.646 Unemployment 0.286* -0.008 -0.424* 0.064 -0.633* 0.644 Education 0.023 0.079* -0.180* -0.298* -0.174* -0.531
Permanent Job Share -0.042 -0.367 1.234 -0.942* -3.206* 6.222
Working Time -0.065* -0.068* -0.013 -0.035 -0.072* 0.188 Public 2.966 -4.172 2.132 7.652 -0.167* 0.000 Private 0.584* -3.021* 1.182* -0.188 0.985 -0.865 Business 1.323** -2.575* 0.729* -1.267 -1.57 0.999
Farm -4.909 -1.717 7.179* -4.564 -2.557 2.393* Season Dummy 0.319* -0.109* -0.212* -0.072 -0.219* 0.226
Bangkok -1.399* -0.891* 0.172 0.091 -0.495* -0.247 North 0.550* 1.053* 1.452* 0.316* -0.16 3.147
Northeast -0.136 0.561* 1.812* -0.093 0.693* -0.801 South 0.343* 0.084 0.542*** 0.014 0.077 1.386
Constant -4.661 2.916** 4.276 1.074* -1.117* -4.824
Economic Effects on Age Structure through Mortality Rate (Rural)
•The corresponding economic variables at cohort level have been controlled, such as Waged income, Unwaged income, Pension and Education at cohort level. And we also control some cohort structure variables, such as gender structure of cohorts.
B: Rural
Mortality 15 – 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60 60 - 70
Waged Income 0.408 0.611 -0.329* 0.037 0.029 8.824 Unwaged Income 0.028 -0.302* 0.028 0.067 0.013 -1.32*
Pension -0.698* 0.558 -0.169* 2.699 2.322 -1.131 Gender -1.500* 0.461 1.974* -1.331* 1.779* -1.416
Participation Rate 0.083 -0.137 0.214 0.118 0.629* -0.892 Unemployment 0.034* -0.003 0.007 0.034* -0.111* -1.034 Education 0.011 0.110 0.239 -0.111* -0.276* 1.005
Working Time 0.01 0.019 -0.048* 0.036* 0.102* 1.337 Public 1.02 -0.602** -1.257* 0.807 0.875* -0.245 Private 0.865 0.187 2.836 6.863 -0.216 4.824 Business 0.279 3.507 0.517 1.624* 5.153 1.929
Farm 0.43 2.417 1.912 9.493* -1.262 1.874 Season Dummy 0.375* 0.046 -0.247* 0.091 0.241* -9.8
North 1.963* 0.400* 0.022 0.785* 0.43 -8.792 Northeast 3.158* 0.181 0.620* -0.191 -0.032 1.212
South 1.519* -0.438* -0.458* -0.336* -0.1 6.025 Constant -5.920* -5.353 -4.406 -1.365* -1.404* -2.665
(Sen) Economic and Human Development
Government Investment
Climate
Companies
GDP
Households
Education-Health
Economic Effects on Age Structure Change through Inward Migration Rate Age Cohort 15 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60 60 - 70
Relative Waged Income-0.389* 0.546* 0.585* 0.544* 0.032 -1.736*
Relative Unwaged Income0.051* -0.041 -0.112* 0.080* -0.166 -0.142
Relative Pension0.024 -0.093* -0.086* 0.294* 0.054* -0.346*
Participation Rate1.667* -0.428* -0.375 2.125* -1.999* -1.885
Education0.064* -0.031 -0.055* -0.111* 0.027 0.104
Overtime0.01 -0.036* -0.091* -0.154* -0.300* 0.142*
Public-1.052* 1.021* -1.432* 0.825* -2.256 4.057
Private0.480* -0.353* 0.052 2.413* 0.887* -1.176
business -0.092* 0.111* 0.05 -0.221* -0.487* 0.209
farm -0.043* 0.039* 0.021 0.097* -0.071 0.222*
Bangkok 0.361* -0.294* -0.581* -0.643* -0.837* 0.625*
North0.04 0.008 -0.044 0.303* -0.075 -0.794*
Northeast-0.073 -0.111* 0.076 0.353* -0.327* -0.961*
South-0.161* -0.016 -0.031 0.088 -0.327* -0.161
Urban-0.548* -0.045 0.492* 1.609* 0.297 0.233