q.31 i know it's a long way off, but thinking about …...clinton trump johnson clinton trump...
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Q.31 I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for – Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump?
StateHillaryClinton
DonaldTrump Other
DK/Ref/NotVote
Arizona 43 48 6 3Florida 52 39 6 3Michigan 50 39 6 5NorthCarolina 51 41 5 3NewHampshire 44 43 9 3Nevada 45 47 4 4Ohio 47 48 3 2Pennsylvania 49 39 8 5Wisconsin 47 36 7 10
Q.35 Now let me as you again, I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for – Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
StateHillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
GaryJohnson Other
DK/Ref/NotVote
Arizona 39 45 10 3 4Florida 49 38 9 2 2Michigan 48 33 12 3 3NorthCarolina 48 38 8 1 4NewHampshire 41 41 10 5 4Nevada 44 44 9 1 3Ohio 41 41 14 1 4Pennsylvania 45 36 13 2 4Wisconsin 44 32 16 3 5
Q.37 (DO NOT ASK IN MICHIGAN OR FLORIDA) Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in November, I know it's a long way off, but if the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you be voting for -- (Democratic incumbent/candidate ) or (Republican incumbent/candidate)?
State Democratic Republican OtherDK/Ref/NotVote
Arizona 42 44 4 10
NorthCarolina 38 36 1 25NewHampshire 47 46 1 5Nevada 41 46 0 13Ohio 43 40 2 15Pennsylvania 38 46 1 15Wisconsin 46 45 0 9
Battleground 2016: new game
June 30, 2016
1
Methodology Battleground Survey of 2700 Likely 2016 Voters in 9 competitive presidential battleground states. This survey took place June 11 - 20. Respondents who voted in the 2012 election, 2014 election, or registered since the 2014 election were selected from the national voter file. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in 2016. Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely voters unless otherwise noted. Margin of error for the full sample = +/-1.89 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Respondents were divided equally among states (n=300) of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Margin of error for each state sample= +/-5.66 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Forty-nine percent of respondents were reached by cell phone, in order to account for ever-changing demographics and accurately sample the full electorate in each state. Regression analysis. A series of fractional logistic regressions were conducted to obtain the marginal effects of the explanatory variable (presidential vote) on outcome variables (associations, statement pairs), representing the change in outcome probabilities estimated for the explanatory variable, all else held equal. No causation is implied by these results.
2
State Breakdowns
Rustbelt Target States:
Ohio New Hampshire
Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan
Diverse Target States:
Arizona Florida Nevada
North Carolina
Senate Battleground:
Arizona
Florida*
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
*The Senate vote results were excluded in Florida where Senator Rubio had not yet announced his candidacy.
3
THE PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
49 41
10
2-Way Vote
45 38
11 6
3-Way Vote
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)?
+8
Clinton leads Trump across the battleground
4
2 – Way Vote 3 – Way Vote
Other/DK Gary Johnson
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton Other/DK
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
+7
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
40 25 25 27 13 10 18
53 43 42 41
32 31 30
34 32 33 45 39 34 51
40 42 43 52 51 44
60
Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25)
Trump and state GOP leaders now face of toxic GOP brand
5
Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.
Mean: 40.7
Net: -1 Net: -13
Mean: 53.5
Net: +13
Mean: 48.0
Net: -19
Mean: 40.2
Net: -11
Mean: 42.4
Net: +1
Mean: 47.9
Barack Obama
Bernie Sanders
Mean: 34.2
Net: -30
Donald Trump
Republican Party
GOP in State Legislature
Hillary Clinton
Democratic Party
39 49
36 45
12
86
5 7
64
20 12
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, [or Libertarian Gary Johnson]?
Trump gets less than half of the white vote, even in 2-way race
6
+10 +9 +44 +81
African American White
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
Hispanic
46
24 22
36 32
25
41 39
13
48 41
5
46 44
5
Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
Clinton winning all generations, including millennials
7
+22 +2 +2 +7
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
White Millennials
Millennials Gen X Baby Boomers Silent
+4
39
50
11
2016 Vote (2-way)
Clinton
Trump
Other/DK/Refused
45
46
10
2016 Vote (2-way)
Clinton
Trump
Other/DK/Refused
63 26
10
2016 Vote (2-way)
Clinton
Trump
Other/DK/Refused
The 2016 “women’s vote” is more complicated than you think
8
Unmarried Women (31% of Clinton vote)
NEW CHART
Married Women (27% of Clinton vote)
College-Educated Women (28% of Clinton Vote)
White Non-College Educated Women (18% of Clinton vote)
66
33
1
2012 Vote Obama
Romney
Other/DK/Refused
56
43
1
2012 Vote Obama
Romney
Other/DK/Refused
57 32
11
2016 Vote (2-way)
Clinton
Trump
Other/DK/Refused
45
53
2
2012 Vote
Obama
Romney
Other/DK/Refused
39
59
2
2012 Vote
Obama
Romney
Other/DK/Refused
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
66
33
62
23 10
52 47 50
31
13
Obama Romney Clinton Trump Johnson Obama Romney Clinton Trump Johnson
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
Improved margins among unmarried women from 2012
9
+33 +39 +19 +5
Unmarried Women
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
2012 2016 2012 2016
White Unmarried Women
42 43
8
62
23 10
Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson
45 53
66
33
Obama Romney Obama Romney
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
Marriage gap sustained, even though married women now even
10
+8 +33 +39 +1
2012 Marriage Gap: 41
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
Married Women
Unmarried Women
Married Women
Unmarried Women
2016 Marriage Gap: 40
78 77 75 75 75 75 73 73 70 69 69 69 69 68 68 59 58
How much do the elections this November for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices matter this year? Please rate how much they matter from one to ten, with one meaning they don’t matter at all and ten meaning they matter tremendously. You can choose any number between one and ten.
RAE less determined to vote than non-RAE, driven by millennials
% 10 – Matters Tremendously
11
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
38
11
48
Voting for Trump Considering Trump Never Trump
45
10
40
Voting for Clinton ConsideringClinton
Never Clinton
12
Never Trump nearing half Even though you are not supporting Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump now, what are the chances that you might support Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump in the election for President in November – is there a fair chance that you might support Clinton/Trump, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all that you might support Clinton/Trump for President in November?
Trump Vote Clinton Vote
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
26
51
20 27
65
8 3 16
55
24
2
Dem Ind Rep Clinton Sanders Other Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Other
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? Even though you are not supporting Hillary Clinton now, what are the chances that you might support Hillary Clinton in the election for President in November – is there a fair chance that you might support Clinton, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all that you might support Clinton for President in November?
Composition of Clinton’s winnable voters
13
Clinton’s Winnable Voters
Democratic Primary
Republican Primary
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
Partisanship
89
4 5
32 33 24
5
80
11
Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
Clinton has consolidated 9-in-10 Democrats, Trump only 8-in-10, and real Libertarian vote with Independents
14
Democrats (40%)
Republicans (35%)
Independents (24%)
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
31 30 24
15
HillaryClinton
DonaldTrump
Other DK/Refused
36
10
52
Democrat Independent Republican
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)?
Majority of Johnson voters are Republican, but three-in-ten will vote for Clinton in 2-way ballot
15
2-Way Vote Partisanship
Johnson Voters
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
*Partisanship is show by Democrats/Democratic leaning Independents, Republicans/Republican leaning Independents
31
26
32
30
25
34
23
21
37
47
49
51
51
48
56
46
51
59
10
6
5
7
6
9
10
7
29
19
19
15
21
17
23
28
22
8
5
8
11
9
12
26
16
21
28
18
26
16
23
36
16
23
16
14
17
14
18
26
19
31
46
31
33
49
28
31
49
39
16
Romney defectors driven by leadership/immigration, Obama defectors by desire for change/nationalism/economy
Income
I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each one, please tell me whether you feel the phrase better describes Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Immigration
Values
Strong Leader
Middle class
Special interests
Right kind of change
Has what it takes
The future
+3
+26
+15
+31
+2
+5
+10
+30
+5
Economy
Incomes & wages
Taxes
Special interests
Stands for America
Right kind of change
Issues matter to me
The future
Strong leader
+37
+23
+23
+27
+39
+46
+32
+40
+17
ROMNEY ‘12, NOT TRUMP ‘16 OBAMA ‘12 NOT CLINTON ‘16
17
THE RUST BELT PLAY & DIVERSE STATE STRATEGY
47 53
81
13 3 18 23 22 20 24
RAE Non-RAE White AfricanAmerican
Hispanic Minority UnmarriedWomen
Millennial WhiteNon-
CollegeMen
WhiteNon-
CollegeWomen
% of Voters
DIVERSE STATES
56 44
67
14 14
31 25 22
15 20
RAE Non-RAE White AfricanAmerican
Hispanic Minority UnmarriedWomen
Millennial WhiteNon-
CollegeMen
WhiteNon-
CollegeWomen
% of Voters
18
Very different demographics in these sets of states RUSTBELT STATES
47 44 39 36
9 13 5 6
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
+8 +8
Clinton's margin across both areas suggests big Electoral College battleground
19
DIVERSE STATES RUSTBELT STATES
Other/DK Gary Johnson
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton Other/DK Gary
Johnson Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
49
38
9
48
38
8
44 44
9
39 45
10
Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)?
Growing diversity producing bigger battleground
20
+6
DIVERSE STATES
+10 -- +11
Florida North Carolina Nevada Arizona
44
54
39 45
50 49 49
38
52 46 44 44
48 51 48
38
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
And running ahead of 2012 margins in the diverse states
21
+13
Diverse States
+10
+10
Arizona Florida Nevada North Carolina
+6 +1 +11 +6 -- -3 +10
+4
2012 Pres. 2016 Pres. 2012 Pres. 2016 Pres. 2012 Pres. 2016 Pres. 2012 Pres. 2016 Pres.
-6
41 41
14
41 41
10
45
36
13
44
32
16
48
33
12
Clinton TrumpJohnson Clinton TrumpJohnson Clinton TrumpJohnson Clinton TrumpJohnson Clinton TrumpJohnson
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)?
No advantage for Trump in the states he needs to win
22
+12
RUSTBELT STATES
-- +9 -- +15
Ohio New Hampshire Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan
55 60
75
45
60 64
75
48
22 23
11 21 25 23
15
28
17 10 12
28
10 10 6
15
RAE UnmarriedWomen
Minorities Millennials RAE UnmarriedWomen
Minorities Millennials
Clinton Trump Johnson
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, [or Libertarian Gary Johnson]?
RAE vote comparable in two areas, so composition is everything
23
RUSTBELT STATES
+33 +37 +60 +20 +35 +41 +64 +24
DIVERSE STATES
32
50
14
36 43
11
Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson
31
61
3
37
52
9
Clinton Trump Johnson Clinton Trump Johnson
24
Trump performs better with working class men in diverse states I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
+18 +7 +30 +15
DIVERSE STATES RUSTBELT STATES
White Non-College Men
White Non-College Women
White Non-College Men
White Non-College Women
25
VALUES & LEADERSHIP
5
12
28
18
15
27
54
33
45
30
20
31
74
56
41
55
Much more Much more
26
Now I am going to read some pairs of short statements some people have made about our nation. After I read each pair, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view even if neither statement is exactly right.
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
Immigrants today are a burden on our country. Immigrants today strengthen our country.
More and more, I don't identify with what America has become.
More and more, America is a place that I can feel comfortable as myself.
Whites are losing out because of preferences for blacks and Hispanics.
Blacks and Hispanics face discrimination that needs public attention.
Women who demand equality are actually seeking special favors.
Women get fewer opportunities than men for equal pay and good paying jobs.
Majorities disagree with Trump’s outlook on society
+22
+13
+29
+59
31
12
39 47
30 34
55
30
62
74
53 57
18 34
13 7 19 17
33
55
27
16
34 31
All presidential BG voters Trump Votes Johnson Voters Clinton Voters Rustbelt States Diverse States
Strengthen much more Burden much more
+35 +25 +19 +22 +58 +26
Now I am going to read some pairs of short statements some people have made about our nation. After I read each pair, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view even if neither statement is exactly right.
Trump supporters are particularly isolated on immigrants
27
Immigrants today strengthen our country. Immigrants today are a burden on our country.
Total BG
Trump Voters
Johnson Voters
Clinton Voters
Rustbelt States
Diverse States
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
26
22
27
21
27
24
21
41
41
40
37
39
37
35
30
28
35
33
38
36
40
46
48
48
48
52
52
52
Trump much more Clinton much more
I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each one, please tell me whether you feel the phrase better describes Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
28
Clinton leads on values & qualifications
Has what it takes to be President
The right approach to immigration
For the middle class
Best for America’s future
+17
+15
+13
+12
+8
+7
Shares your values
Raising incomes and wages
+5 Will bring the right kind of change
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Strongest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions
Weakest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions
26
34
33
26
33
31
29
21
42
46
47
43
45
44
42
39
24
32
30
25
34
34
32
24
38
44
46
44
46
46
46
44 Trump much more Clinton much more
I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each one, please tell me whether you feel the phrase better describes Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
29
But at parity on the economy and safety
Finally raising issues that matter to me
Safety
Strong leader
A better economy
+4
+2
+1
+1
+1
+3
The right approach to taxes
Stands up for America
+4 Honesty
+5 Stands up for corporate special interests on behalf of ordinary people
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Strongest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions
Weakest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions
Weakest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions
6 13 15 16
21 22 23 25 30 38 47
Authentic and likeable
Family and women
Big business and big money
Affirmative action/Equal rights
Abortion rights/Gay marriage
President Obama's work
Qualifications for President
Immigration
Obamacare
Safe from terrorists
Jobs and the economy
Her lead is based on her leadership qualities
30
Now I am going to read you a list of reasons people say they might vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. After I read this list, tell me which THREE are the most important in your decision.
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Strongest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions
31
THE SENATE STORY
39 48
44 45 38
44 42 38 41 44
36
46
AZ NC NV
Clinton Trump Dem Senate Cand. Rep Senate Cand.
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
Room for Democratic Senate vote to grow in diverse states
32
+10 +2 +6 +2
Arizona North Carolina Nevada
-- +5
Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in November, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you be voting for – (Democratic incumbent/candidate) or (Republican incumbent/candidate)?
President Senate President Senate President Senate
DIVERSE STATES
41 41 45 44 41 41
36 32
47 43
38 46 46
40 46 45
NH OH PA WI
Clinton Trump Dem Senate Cand. Rep Senate Cand.
I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
Democratic Senate candidates competitive with room to grow
33
+3 +9 +8 -- -- +1
New Hampshire Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin
+12 +1
Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in November, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you be voting for – (Democratic incumbent/candidate) or (Republican incumbent/candidate)?
President Senate President Senate President Senate President Senate
RUSTBELT STATES
25
10
57
Very certain to vote for Democrats Somewhat certain to vote for Democrats Will not vote for Democrats
34
One quarter of GOP Senate voters defect on hearing GOP abortion, gun and gay marriage agenda
Now I am going to read you a list of positions taken by Republican candidates for U.S. Congress and the legislature in [STATE]. The Republican candidates oppose:
• Restricting gun rights for people on the terror watch list and outlawing the sale of assault rifles • New laws guaranteeing equal pay for women • Abortion, even in cases of rape and incest • Gay marriage and new laws barring discrimination against gays, lesbians and transgender people
After hearing the Republican candidates takes these positions, would you now vote for his or her Democratic opponent?
Not Voting for Senate Democrat*
* And those who don’t ID as Democrats in Michigan
+35
36
19
13
10
Opposes abortion, even in cases of rape and incest
Opposes restricting gun rights for people on theterror watch list and outlawing the sale of assault
rifles
Opposes gay marriage and new laws barringdiscrimination against gays, lesbians and transgender
people
Opposes new laws guaranteeing equal pay forwomen
35
Abortion, guns and gay marriage drive GOP Senate voters to Democrats down ballot [IFWILL VOTE FOR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE AFTER HEARING GOP INFO] Which one of the Republican candidates' positions bothered you the most?
SENATE BATTLEGROUND
15 percent volunteered
all of the above
64 38 41
53 37
77
49 57 61
55
15 41 36 33 40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Will not vote for Democrats
Very certain vote for Dems
36
Democratic votes to be gained down-ballot, especially among RAE in diverse states
Now I am going to read you a list of positions taken by Republican candidates for U.S. Congress and the legislature in [STATE]. The Republican candidates oppose:
• Restricting gun rights for people on the terror watch list and outlawing the sale of assault rifles • New laws guaranteeing equal pay for women • Abortion, even in cases of rape and incest • Gay marriage and new laws barring discrimination against gays, lesbians and transgender people
After hearing the Republican candidates take these positions, would you now vote for his or her Democratic opponent?
* And those who don’t ID as Democrats in Michigan
Clinton NOT Senate Dem
RAE Diverse States
Unmarried Women
Diverse States Undecided in Senate Vote
Millennials Diverse States
Not Voting for Senate Democrat*
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