putting a “climate change filter” on forest stewardship and conservation

Putting a “Climate Change Filter” on Forest Stewardship and Conservation

Maria JanowiakApril 6, 2017

Mass Trustees

Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science

www.nrs.fs.fed.us/niacs/

Carbon

Climate

Climate Change

Responding to Climate Change

If you want a single “answer” for how to respond to climate change, it’s:

“It depends”

It depends on where you are working and what you’re trying to achieve.

Forest Adaptation Resources

Adaptation Workbook

Strategies & Approaches

Menu of adaptation actions

Structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management.• Workbook approachOrder a copy at:

www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760 Also online: AdaptationWorkbook.org

http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760

What actions can be taken toenhance the ability of a system to

cope with change and

meet conservation goals and objectives?

Swanston et al. 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760

Adaptation Process1. DEFINE area of

interest, management objectives, and time

frames.

2. ASSESS climate change impacts and

vulnerabilities for the area of interest.

3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts

and vulnerabilities.

4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation

approaches and tactics .

5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness

of implemented actions.

Adaptation Process: Deciphered


1. Where are you and what do you

care about?

2. How is that particular place

vulnerable to climate change?

3. What challenges or opportunities

does climate change present?

4. What actions can help systems adapt to change?

5. How can you know whether

those actions were effective?

www.forestadaptation.org/demos

Adaptation Demonstrations(real-world examples)

Climate Change: Effects on New England’s Forests

www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment

Vulnerability Assessment• Series of reports for natural

resource professionals• Focus on tree species and

forest ecosystems• Examine a range of future

climates • Evaluate key ecosystem

vulnerabilities to climate change • Does not make

recommendations or assess vulnerability to changes in mgmt., land use, policy

New England & Northern New York• Synthesize existing literature and climate change

assessments• Incorporate new results from models projecting

forest response to climate change


Observations: Warmer TemperaturesWarmer temperatures• MA temperatures

increased about 2.8°F since 1895

• Winter has warmed most

• Extremely hot days have increased

• Shorter duration of lake ice cover

• Longer growing season• Plants flowering earlier

Annual Temperature Change since 1895

NOAA Climate at a Glance; Melillo et al. 2014

Observations: Altered PrecipitationAltered Precipitation• MA precipitation

increased over 5” since 1895

• High variability from year to year

• Greatest increase of more than 2” in fall

• Substantial increases in extreme rain events: 71% increase across northeast since 1958

Annual Precipitation Change since 1895

NOAA Climate at a Glance; Melillo et al. 2014

Observed Climate TrendsSea-level Rise• Sea level rose about 9 inches per century• Increases in coastal flooding

Climate.gov, Adapted from J. Boothroyd, University of Rhode Island.

Relative sea level rise: Newport, RI tide gauge

Increased about 10”

over last 100 years

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier

Increased disturbance from extreme events Heavy precipitation Flooding Ice storms Heat waves/droughts Wind storms Hurricanes

“Events” are very difficult to predict

=(?)

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier

Increased disturbance from extreme events Heavy precipitation Flooding Ice storms Heat waves/droughts Wind storms Hurricanes

“Events” are very difficult to predict

VTRANS/VT ANR

NY DEC

Dan Turner,Cambridge Fire Dept.

NOAA

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier

Future predictions of summer precipitation are mixed.

Rain during the growing season may not change a lot.

More Precipitation

Less Precipitation

June-October

Figure: Lynch et al. 2016

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier



Precipitation

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier



Water loss from soils (evaporation)

Groundwater recharge

Runoff

PrecipitationWater loss from trees (transpiration)

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier





PrecipitationWater loss from trees (transpiration)

Runoff

Extreme events increase runoff

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier



Extreme events increase runoff Warmer temperatures dry air & soilsResult: Risk of moisture stress & drought


Water loss from trees (transpiration)


Runoff

Precipitation

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier

Plant and animal species will respond to changes in climate.

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier


2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High

Current Distribution

Importance ValueLow

High

Suitable Habitat: Red Spruce

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier


Basal Area: Red Spruce

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier


= species X suitable habitat

50% Reduction in Habitat:

Habitat reduced equally Best habitats remain

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier


What really matters: Local conditions CompetitionManagementDisturbance

Potential to decline Black, red, white spruce Northern white-cedar Eastern hemlock Eastern white pine Paper, yellow birch

Mixed model results American beech Balsam fir Northern red oak Sugar maple Quaking aspen

Potential “winners” Black, scarlet oak Blackgum Chestnut oak Eastern redcedar Flowering dogwood Pignut hickory Silver maple Sweet birch Yellow-poplar

New habitat American holly Black hickory Chinkapin oak Hackberry Shortleage pine Sweetgum Virginia pine

www.forestadaptation/org/ne-species

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier

Interactions make all the difference.Chronic stressDisturbances Invasive species Insect pests Forest diseases

Image: Bartlett Tree Experts

Drought

Injury

Pests and Disease

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier


Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Woods et al. 2005, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009 Image: Frumhoff et al. 2007

Forest Insects and DiseaseIndirect: Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility Direct:• Pests migrating northward• Decreased probability of cold lethal temps• Accelerated lifecycles

HWA lethal temp: -20 to -30°F

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier


Dukes et al. 2009, Rustad et al. 2011; Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)

Invasives SpeciesIndirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success

Direct:• Expanded ranges under warmer

conditions• Increased competitiveness from ability

of some plants to take advantage of elevated CO2

Variable weather

Water changes

Species changes

Threat multiplier

Millar et al. 2015

Megadisturbance?

Generally Challenges• Reduced growth from

moisture stress• Decline of northern &

boreal species• Disturbance from

extreme events• Wildfire potential• Forests pests & disease• Invasive species

Generally Opportunities• Increased productivity:

longer growing season• Increased productivity:

more CO2

• Increased habitat for some species

Depends on SITE and OBJECTIVES!

Effects on Forests


Remember: Location, Location, LocationResearch and assessments describe broad

trends but local conditions and managementmake the difference.

Next time you’re in the woods

Take a look around & think about:

What’s important here?

How might it change?

What am I already doing to help?

What else can I do to help?

www.forestadaptation.org/NESAF2015

Putting a “Climate Change Filter” on Forest Stewardship and Conservation

Forest Adaptation Resources

Adaptation Workbook

Strategies & Approaches

Menu of adaptation actions

Structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management.• Workbook approachOrder a copy at:

www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760 Also online: AdaptationWorkbook.org

http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760

www.forestadaptation.org/demos

Adaptation Demonstrations(real-world examples)

What actions can be taken toenhance the ability of a system to

cope with change and

meet conservation goals and objectives?


Adaptation Process1. DEFINE area of

interest, management objectives, and time

frames.

2. ASSESS climate change impacts and

vulnerabilities for the area of interest.

3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts

and vulnerabilities.

4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation

approaches and tactics .

5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness

of implemented actions.

Adaptation Process: Deciphered


1. Where are you and what do you

care about?

2. How is that particular place

vulnerable to climate change?

3. What challenges or opportunities

does climate change present?


5. How can you know whether

those actions were effective?

Translating concepts to actionsOptions (concepts): • Resistance, Resilience, Transition

Strategies:• Regionally specific conditions

Approaches:• Actions for a specific ecosystem

or forest type

Tactics: • Prescriptions for local conditions

and mgmt. objectives

Adaptation Strategies & Approaches

www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs-strategies


RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION

Improve defenses of forest against change Maintain relatively

unchanged conditions

Accommodate some degree of change Return to prior condition

after disturbance

Facilitate change Enable ecosystem to

respond to new and changing conditions

Millar et al. 2007

Options – big concepts for how to respond


ResistChange

Promote aTransition

EnhanceResilience

1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions.2: Reduce existing biological stressors. 3: Reduce impacts of severe disturbances. 4: Maintain or create refugia. 5: Enhance species and structural diversity. 6: Promote ecosystem redundancy. 7: Increase landscape connectivity. 8: Enhance genetic diversity. 9: Facilitate species transitions. 10: Realign after disturbance.

www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs-strategies

StrategiesOptions

Why it’s important:Helps connect the dots from broad concepts to

specific actions for implementation.

Management Goals & Objectives

Climate Change Impacts

Intent of Adaptation (Option)

Make Idea Specific(Strategy, Approach)

Action to Implement(Tactic)

Challenges & Opportunities

Menu + Workbook: Connects the Dots

1. Where are you and what do you care about?

Caroline Lake Preserve

The Nature Conservancy About 1,000 acres of forestAcquired from industrial

ownership in 1997Working forest to

demonstrate sustainable forestry practices

www.forestadaptation.org/carolinelake

Conservation Goals & Objectives:Maintain/restore forests that were historically characteristic of the area Mid-to-late successional structure Natural disturbances Under-represented species

Incorporate climate change considerations into a forest management plan

Northern Hardwoods (643 acres)Lowland Conifer (259 acres)Lowland Hardwoods (78 acres)Shoreline Buffer (<5 acres)Upland Conifer (<5 acres)

2. How is this particular place vulnerable to

climate change?

Climate Change ImpactsRegional Ecosystem Impacts1) Longer growing season 2) Less snow, more rain3) Altered soil moisture4) Potential for summer drought5) Extreme events6) Species range shifts7) Invasive plants8) Forest pests and diseases

www.forestadaptation.org/vulnerability-assessment

Altered precipitation & drier conditions

• Located at headwaters of Bad River

• Contains numerous wetlands– very vulnerable to hydrologic change

Projected declines in many common northern species Property contains many species

expected to decline Site has high species diversity

compared to nearby forests

Climate Change Impacts

3. What challenges or opportunities does

climate change present?

Challenges

Under-represented species may not do better in future: yellow birch, hemlock

Lowland conifer/hardwood forests are not managed• Declining boreal conifers • Potential emerald ash borer

in ash swamps

Deer herbivory could increase

Proportion of Stand Composed of Species Projected to Decrease

Janowiak et al. (in review)

Challenges Opportunities• Some species (white

pine and red oak) may fare same or better in future

• Small- or medium-sized disturbances increase structural diversity

• Unique site and location may offer opportunities for refugia

Under-represented species may not do better in future: yellow birch, hemlock

Lowland conifer/hardwood forests are not managed• Declining boreal conifers • Potential emerald ash borer

in ash swamps

Deer herbivory could increase

Same actions–climate change

just makes them that

much more important

Small “tweaks” that improve effectiveness

New & different actions to consider, even some that may seem wild & crazy

*individual results will vary

What adaptation looks like:

Already doing and even more important

Practice Current Purpose Adaptation Co-Benefits

Favor under-represented species

Species/structural diversity; habitats

Hedge against decline of one species; opportunity to favor future-adapted species

Encouragelarge woody debris

Structural diversity; habitats; nutrients

Create moister and cooler conditions on forest floor

Mimic natural disturbances

Species/structural diversity; acceleratesuccession

Makes it easier to take advantage of natural disturbances

Small tweaks in management

Forest Current Action Adaptation ActionNorthern Hardwoods

Use single-tree or group selection methods to maintain species composition/diversity and increase structural diversity

Same, plus: Use large group selection or

shelterwood harvests to increase northern red oak in some stands

Promote white pine, black cherry, yellow birch, and other desirable species that are less likely to decline

ShorelineBuffer

No harvest reserve area Where opportunities exist, promote white pine or other long-lived conifer component for diversity/shorelineshading

Wild and crazy? Addressing potential risks

Forest Current Action Adaptation ActionLowland Hardwoods

No harvest reserve area

No harvest reserve area, BUT: If regeneration is inadequate or emerald

ash borer mortality appears likely, consider introduction of plantings of swamp white oak, bur oak, etc.

5. How can you know whether those actions

were effective?

Climate-informed Forest InventoryTraditional Metrics New Risk Metrics• Total Stocking• Tree Species Diversity

• Richness• Evenness

• Large Coarse Woody Debris• Regeneration

• Saplings• Seedlings

• Risk of Decline• Trees• Saplings • Seedlings

Janowiak et al. (in review)

More examples

Norcross Wildlife Sanctuary (MA/CT)

Increase tree species diversity & forest structureReduce impacts from forest pests and diseasesPromote native species adapted to future conditions

Trout Unlimited & Partners (VT/MA)

Increase tree species diversity & forest structureReduce impacts from forest pests and diseases Increase stream connectivityReducing impacts from extreme events, low flows, etc.

The Nature Conservancy (ME)

Increase tree species diversity & forest structurePromote future-adapted tree species by

planting (red & black spruce, white pine)

Current White Pine Abundance

Providence Water (RI)

Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseasesPromote future-adapted tree species by planting southern species

(black oak, pin oak, persimmon, pitch pine, shortleaf pine)Minimize impacts from herbivory

Accept uncertainty.

Use new information & ideas.

Take action, focusing on win-wins.

Be creative & flexible.

Work and learn with others.

A few final thoughts…

putting a “climate change filter” on forest stewardship and conservation

Environment