public service in the political arenapolitical arena getting others - or yourself - elected to serve...
TRANSCRIPT
Public Service in the Political Arena
Getting others - or yourself - elected to serve our state
IntroductionAbout the Firm● Communication, polling, digital● 3 offices, operating nationally in US● Extensive Alabama experience● Strong emphasis on messaging and targeting
About Brent● Large family - 5 kids, 1 saintly wife● Experience in more than 300 campaigns● Masters in Public Relations● Advisor to politicians and organizations
across the country
Presentation SummaryGoals & Outcomes● Understand what it takes to win a modern political campaign● Identify opportunities to serve, either as a candidate or key supporter of a candidate
Key Topics● Campaign Components● Message Development● Learning from President Trump● Campaign Strategy● Survey Research● Voter Targeting● Modern Political Environment
Core Campaign ComponentsMessage● Issues● Segmentation● Delivery
Money● Fundraising● Budget● Burn Rate
Media● Earned● Paid
Develop the MessageObserve
National and state conversations; local issues
Segment
Key groups have different concerns, listen differently
Emotionalize
Connect to the heart, not the head; stories not stats
Disseminate the Message
Think through how to say what and when
Watch it grow; adjust course accordingly
Time it out to build on the whole story
Donald Trump vs. 12 Other RepublicansPersonality-Based Candidacy● All politics is personal
Simple Messages● Wall, Obamacare, Fix Washington
War of Attrition● Found & built a non-traditional coalition
Movement in the Polls● Focused on poll movement as proof
Trump GOP Primary Polling
Donald Trump vs. Hillary ClintonDriving Issues● Meat & potatoes topics
Stark Differentiation● Hillary = establishment; Trump = change
Referendum on Hillary● She couldn’t be a “change” candidate
Movement in the Polls● Blasted when down; praised when up
Trump v. Clinton Polling
Trump Messaging ComponentsUnderstanding of Audiences● Spoke their language; anger; repetition
Polarization Risks● Knew the buttons to push and did so
Aim High Then Settle● Proposed big ideas for effect then scaled down
Showmanship● Made it about Trump
Simple Theme & Messages● Clear narrative that was easily repeatable
Tap Emotions***● Focused on invoking emotional reactions
Reframe Everything to Your Frame● Held his turf and made it all fit his narrative
Final US Electoral College Results
Build the Campaign Strategy
Define Yourself
• Who you are• What you believe• Why you’re running
Take Inventory
• Assess landscapes• Know opponents• Find resources
ID Audiences
• Ignore the whole• Use segments• Speak individually
Build Structure
• Create a budget• Keep a small circle• Write a plan• Follow a timeline
Execute the Campaign Strategy
Raise the money; spend it wisely
Maintain a consistent course
Package and deliver messages regularly
How Polling is Done
Hybrid Phone
IVR/Auto to LandlineLive to Cells
Live Phone
Traditional MethodMost Costly
Web
Nearly Impossible for Local Races
What Makes a Good Poll
Correct Geographic and Demo
Stratification
Unbiased Survey
Instrument Questions
Proper Sample
Collection
Minimal Reliance on Weighting
What You Get from a Poll
Topline Report Crosstabs Analysis
Global View Micro View Actionable View
Example of Toplines
Example of Crosstabs
Basics of Voter TargetingAll About the List● Starts with an SoS voter list● Enhanced with commercial data● Not everyone is a target● Don’t stay static
Core Components● Address● Phone number● Voter history● Demographics
Voter Record Example
Building a Targeting UniversePlay Around● Look at similar past elections● Pay attention to turnout● Compare to your polling data● Pay attention to overlapping races
Gubernatorial GOP Primary● 2010 off-year - 492,480 turnout● (2012 prez - 622,514 turnout)● Heavy spending by all candidates
Building a 2018 GOP Primary Universe
Learn from Your Target Universe
Age● All elections skew older in Alabama, esp. primaries● 18-39 (7%), 40-49 (12%), 50-69 (48%), 70+ (33%)
Gender● Always more female than male● Female (52%), Male (48%)
Income● Socioeconomic status drives decision making● $50k-$74k (30%), $75-$99k (19%), $35-$49k (8%)
Media Market● ...or some other geographical breakdown is needed● BHM (40%), HSV (20%), MOB (14%)
Consequences of 2016 Election Cycle
Populism’s Rise● Not limited to the Republican Party● Disaffection drives populism
Whipping Boys● Power requires an enemy● Institutions are ripe to be the target
Copycat Candidates● Expect more Bernies and Donalds● Don’t need movements to create disruption
Divisive Primaries● Districts mean no more generals● Incumbents to get primaried more
Pay Attention to Rising PopulismDriven by Discontent● Life is not better and the future is bleak
People Feel Left Out/Behind● Elitists control the government and need to go
Big Government & Big Business Are the Problem● Big business & government are colluding; had their chance
Feeling Nostalgic● Civilization curve; go back to the way things were
Voting on Pocketbooks Issues● What have you done for me lately?
Brent Buchanan, President & Founder
[email protected] +1 (202) 505-5314 x700
PO Box 96503 #68517Washington, DC 20090