Public Opinion,Public Opinion,Political Participation,Political Participation,

& & Voting Voting

CH. 8CH. 8

Public OpinionPublic Opinion

Describes what the population thinks about politics and government

Why is it importantWhy is it important

1. Citizen action-opinion drives voting, contributing to campaigns, writing letters to senators and other activism

2. Determines campaign strategies, how members of Congress vote, influences Supreme Court(delayed effect)

3. Sheds light on why policy shifts over the course of time

The Population: The relevant group of people for the question

Consensus: occurs when a substantial percentage of a sample agree on an issue

Polarization: occurs when a large portion of opposing sides feels intensely about an issue

Public OpinionPublic Opinion

Taking the pulse of the peopleIntensityLatencySalience

Public OpinionPublic Opinion

Definition: distribution of individual preferences or evaluations of a given issue, candidate or institution.

Distribution-the proportion of the population that holds one opinion or viewpoint as compared to those with opposing opinions or those with no opinion at all

Taking the Pulse of the Taking the Pulse of the PeoplePeople

Keys1. proper sampling-a random choice of an

appropriate set of people2. art of asking questions-wording of question,

questions are pretested, questioner trained—no voice intonations

3. Thorough analysis and reporting of results, accuracy, validated sample size, margin of error

Intensity-how strongly people feel about a candidate, issue or policy

Latency-political opinions that exist merely as potential—(haven’t crystallized)—more concerned with personal issues than national issues

Salience-extent to which people feel issues are relevant to them

Agents of Political Agents of Political SocializationSocialization

FamilySchoolsMass MediaReligionEthnic and racial attitudes

How we acquire political How we acquire political opinionsopinions

Political Socialization-process by which we develop our political attitudes, values and beliefs– Nationalism—a consciousness of the nation-

state and of belonging to that entity is a common element of political socialization

– Importance of group affiliation vs. individual

Sources of Political Sources of Political SocializationSocialization

Family: (parent-child similarity) disagreements between youth’s parents and friends

Schools: higher education and political correctness

Sources… continuedSources… continued

Mass Media—

wide exposure to newspapers, Internet, movies, TV

Why is media influential?

media provides “link between individuals and values/behavior of others”

Public Opinion and Public Public Opinion and Public PolicyPolicy

Public opinion change can lead to policy change(Vietnam, Gulf War)

Elected officials seek to follow public policy opinion

Candidates use polls to determine where and how to campaign

Political polls are no substitute for elections

Awareness and InterestAwareness and Interest

Varying levels of interest in politics– Attentive public-25% of American public…

tend to be better educated.– Nonvoters-35% “political do-nothings”– Part-time citizens

Only 60% of Americans can name one U.S. Senator

Participation: from opinion to Participation: from opinion to actionaction

Influence government in what ways?– #1 way--Voting, joining interest groups,

writing letters, calls, etc.– Totalitarian society-participation is very limited– Even in a democracy, people may fight rather

than accept election(U.S. Civil War)– Routine participation-National Anthem, Pledge

of Allegiance, jury duty

Politics is a private matter in Politics is a private matter in AmericaAmerica

Less than one person in four attempts to influence another person’s vote

Only one in 20 make a contribution to a candidate; only one in six designates taxes to presidential fund

RegistrationRegistration

Voter registration discourages votingAustralian ballot: secret response to

multiple votingRegistration laws vary by state

– Only North Dakota does not require registration– Most important provision of voter registration

is the closing date-No state can stop registration more than 30 days before an election

Motor VoterMotor Voter

1. Allows people to register when applying for a renewal of driver’s license

2. States can also use schools/libraries/city/county offices as registration sites

3. states can permit mail registration4. Most registered claim to be independent which

benefits neither party5. Does not appear to have increased turnout

TurnoutTurnout

Turnout is highest in presidential election

Turnout is higher in general elections than in primary elections and higher in primary elections than in special elections

Turnout continuedTurnout continued

Turnout is higher in presidential general elections than in midterm general elections and higher presidential primary elections than in midterm primary elections

Turnout is higher in elections in which candidates for federal office are on the ballot than in state elections in years when there are no federal contests

Turnout continuedTurnout continued

Local or municipal elections have lower turnout than state elections and municipal primaries have even lower rates of participation

In 1960, turnout peaked at almost 65 percent of persons over 21 years of age, has since declined to 36% in 1998 and 51% in 2000

Why is turnout so low?Why is turnout so low?

1. Voter registration appears to be the major block to voting

2. Too young; election did not seem important; disinterested in candidates; inconvenient

3. American parties are too weak-nonvoter had no contact with party

Who Votes?Who Votes?

1. Education level-as education level increases, so does voting

2. Race and ethnic background-blacks vote at lower rates than whites, women voters exceed that of men

3. Income and age-those with higher family income, higher-status careers, older…more likely to vote– 18-24 year olds least likely to vote/also over 70

How serious is nonvoting?How serious is nonvoting?

If people are too lazy to vote, maybe they shouldn’t

Some say a serious issue-”class bias”The poor are not representedBut nonvoters are not more egalitarian or in

favor of government ownershipLower voter turnout could be seen as

approval

Nonvoting continued…Nonvoting continued…

If large nonvoting population were to turnout to vote it could shift balance of power

Need for electoral reform after 2000 election, ensure fair voting(machines) accuracy, concerns about the media projecting winners before the polls close.

NonvotersNonvoters Millions of Americans do not vote when elections are held. Only 50.1 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in the 2000

presidential election, and only 46.3 percent of the electorate voted for the members of the House of Representatives.

Voter turnout significantly decreases in off-year elections, congressional elections held in years when there is no presidential election.

Why People Do Not VoteWhy People Do Not Vote

Some people cannot vote for various reasons, such as physical or mental illness, unexpected travel, and resident alien citizenship status.

However, most nonvoters do not vote because– voting is in some way inconvenient,– they do not believe that their vote will make a

difference, or– they distrust politics and political candidates.

Voters and Voting BehaviorVoters and Voting Behavior

Voting is studied more than any other form of political participation in the United States. We learn about voting

behavior from: The results of elections—information can be gleaned by studying

the results of confidential voting compared to the population make-up of a particular sector

The field of survey research—data can be gathered by conducting polls across specific cross sections of the population, as the Gallup Organization does

Studies of political socialization—studying political socialization, the process by which people gain their political attitudes and opinions, can also be useful in predicting voting behavior

Sociological FactorsSociological Factors

Income andOccupation

Education Gender and Age

Religious andEthnic Background

Geography Family and OtherGroups

Voter preferences can’t be predicted by just one sociological factor. Voter opinion is a combination of all of these factors and more.

Psychological FactorsPsychological Factors

Party Identification The loyalty of people to a

particular political party is a lasting predictor of how a person will vote.

Candidates and Issueso Candidates and issues are two

short-term factors that can influence even the most loyal Democrat or Republican.

• People may vote out of their chosen party if they dislike a candidate or the party’s stand on a particular issue.

Voters’ perceptions of their party, the candidates, and the issues significantly affects their voting.

Voting ChoicesVoting Choices

Voting on the Basis of PartyVoting on the Basis of CandidatesVoting on the Basis of Issues

Voting Based on PartyVoting Based on Party

Party Identification-affiliation with a party, longstanding loyalty

Even increase in independents, 2/3 of indep. Are in fact partisan in their behavior, reinforcing the importance of partisanship

Party identification more stable than attitudes about issues or candidates

Voting on the basis of Voting on the basis of candidatescandidates

American electoral politics is in a candidate-centered era. Likeable, who looks good, who is more personable

Candidate appeal often on character (Reagan, Eisenhower)

Increasingly, campaigns focus on negative elements, attacks on stands on abortion, fundraising

Attacked for dishonesty, trustworthiness

Voting on basis of issuesVoting on basis of issues

Important but not as central as partisanship and candidate appeal

Why?– Candidates often conceal real position on issues

Voting on issues basis presumes a level of interest in issues that only a few voters have

Retrospective voting more likely than prospective voting

Prospective voting-voting based on what a candidate promises if elected

Retrospective voting- voting based on what a candidate’s past performance or candidate’s party’s record of performance

Voting on Issues continued...Voting on Issues continued...State of economy often crucial to

candidate’s electionUsually, voters vote against party in power

if personal finances have worsenedDemocrats focused on issues in 1998 and

picked up 5 seats in House; GOP use of impeachment issue did not resonate with voters

The Voting Rights Act of 1965The Voting Rights Act of 1965

Provisions of VotingRights Act of 1965

Court Decisions Upholdingthe Voting Rights Act of 1965

Led to the abolishment ofthe poll tax

Harper v. Virginia State Boardof Elections, 1966

Outlawed the use of anykind of literacy test

Oregon v. Mitchell, 1970

Mandated preclearance South Carolina v. Katzenbach,1966

Later amendments added alanguage-minority provision

Not challenged

African Americans at the PollsAfrican Americans at the Polls

NonvotersNonvoters Millions of Americans do not vote when elections are held. Only 50.1 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in the 2000

presidential election, and only 46.3 percent of the electorate voted for the members of the House of Representatives.

Voter turnout significantly decreases in off-year elections, congressional elections held in years when there is no presidential election.

Why People Do Not VoteWhy People Do Not Vote

Some people cannot vote for various reasons, such as physical or mental illness, unexpected travel, and resident alien citizenship status.

However, most nonvoters do not vote because– voting is in some way inconvenient,– they do not believe that their vote will make a

difference, or– they distrust politics and political candidates.

Chapter 6, Section 4Chapter 6, Section 4

Voters and Voting BehaviorVoters and Voting Behavior

Voting is studied more than any other form of political participation in the United States. We learn about voting

behavior from: The results of elections—information can be gleaned by studying

the results of confidential voting compared to the population make-up of a particular sector

The field of survey research—data can be gathered by conducting polls across specific cross sections of the population, as the Gallup Organization does

Studies of political socialization—studying political socialization, the process by which people gain their political attitudes and opinions, can also be useful in predicting voting behavior

The History of Voting RightsThe History of Voting Rights The Framers of the Constitution purposely left the power to set suffrage qualifications to each State.

Suffrage means the right to vote. Franchise is another term with the same meaning.

The electorate is all of the people entitled to vote in a given election.

Initially, the right to vote in America was limited to white male property owners.

Today, the size of the American electorate is greater than 200 million people. Nearly all citizens at least 18 years of age can qualify to vote.

Chapter 6, Section 1Chapter 6, Section 122 33 44