public opinion and political behaviors
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Public Opinion and Political Behaviors. Unit IIC Voting, Campaigns, and Elections. Political Efficacy. Voting in elections Learning and understanding political knowledge Having political discussions Attending political meetings Forming interest groups Contacting public officials - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Public Opinion and Political Behaviors
Unit IIC
Voting, Campaigns, and Elections
Political Efficacy Voting in elections Learning and understanding political knowledge Having political discussions Attending political meetings Forming interest groups Contacting public officials Campaigning for a candidate, political party, ballot
issue Financial contributions Running for office Protesting public policies and/or officials
Voting - The Democratic Process
Voting exemplifies a “government by the people”
The American electorate determine policy and policymakers
Suffrage is the right to vote - regulated by the states
Vote in local, state, and national elections
Voter Requirements
An American citizen of 18 years or older may vote– Aliens may not vote– Prisoners and convicted felons may not vote
States determine registration requirements– Residency requirements
Usually 30 days
Motor-Voter Law (National Voter Registration Act of 1993)– Register to vote when applying/renewing driver’s license– Register by mail
Expansion of Suffrage Religious and property qualifications eliminated by 1800 15th Amendment (1870)
– Guaranteed blacks the right to vote 19th Amendment (1920)
– Guaranteed women the right to vote 23rd Amendment (1961)
– Guaranteed right to vote for D.C. 24th Amendment (1964)
– Prohibited poll taxes Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Acts of 1965
– Eliminated voting restrictions for blacks– Grandfather clauses, white primaries, literacy tests
26th Amendment (1971)– Guaranteed right to vote for 18 years and older
Who Votes? High Level of Education Higher Incomes White-Collar Workers Older Generations Whites Women Religious Union Members Strong Community Members Strong Political Party Members Competitive Election Districts
Why Won’t People Vote? Negative campaigns Numerous and frequent elections Lack of party identification Similarity between candidates Mistrust in government Apathy or Status Quo Lack of political efficacy Voter registration difficulties Feeling of not belonging to a
community
How People Vote
Vote based on political party Vote based on the issues Vote based on campaigns Vote based on coalitions
Voting Based on Political Party
Party affiliation arguably the primary determinant for a voter
Most voters are Democrats, but not as firmly dedicated
Republicans successful with independents and moderates and have higher voter turnout
Voting Based on the Issues Prospective Voting
– Vote based on information of issues and candidates
– Ex. Pro-life citizen votes for Bush over Gore in 2000
Retrospective Voting– Vote based on past events
whether successful or failed– Ex. The economy suffered
during Bush’s (R) administration hurting McCain’s (R) campaign against Obama (D) in 2008
Voting Based on the Campaign
Reawakens partisan loyalties of voters
Provides voters chance to witness how candidates handle the spotlight and responsibility
Allows voters to judge a candidate’s character and values
Voting Based on a Coalition Democrats
– Strong loyalties among blacks and Jews Support for minority-based policies (affirmative action, civil rights) However, limited popular contribution
– Moderate support among most hispanics Support for pro-immigration policies Low voter turnout
– Catholics and unions divided Based on conservative stance on social issues (abortion)
Republicans– Strong loyalties among businesses and conservatives
Support for tax cuts and limited economic regulation Social conservatives (evangelicals)
– Moderate support among farmers and professionals Farmers and professionals can switch based on economy
Types of ElectionsPrimary Elections
Primary Elections– Nominating elections which voters choose which candidate
from each party to run in general election– Closed Primary
Only voters registered in the party may vote for candidate
– Open Primary Voters choose whichever candidates of either party by selecting
party in the voting booth
– Blanket Primary Voters choose whichever candidate of any party for different
positions
– Runoff Primary Election between top two candidates who received the most votes
but neither received the majority of votes
California Democratic Party v. Jones (2000)
2008 Democratic Primary Election
California ballot
Types of ElectionsGeneral Elections
Voters choose between all candidates nominated by political party or running as independents
Anyone of any or no political party may choose whichever candidate no matter party affiliation
Types of ElectionsSpecial Elections
Voters must decide on an issue or a candidate in special circumstances not related to a primary or general election
Initiative– Citizens propose a new law with enough signatures
Referendum– Legislatures refer a law to be voted by the people
Recall– Citizens petition to hold an election to choose to remove a
public official Special elections are only held at the state or local
levels
Congressional Elections Held every two years on even-numbered years
– Every two years to elect Representatives– Senatorial elections may be held
Mid-Term Elections aka Off-Year Elections held between presidential elections– Low voter turnout
Incumbents - currently holding office– Generally win elections due to low voter turn out, success in
office, or good campaigning– Franking privilege
Free mailings to constituents
Coattail Effect– Weak or less known candidates win based on success of
popular presidential candidate through party affiliation
Franking Privilege
Congressional ElectionsCongressional Apportionment and
Districts Congress established number of representatives for House at
435 (1911)– Each state with at least one representative– Currently, one representative per 709,760
Reapportionment every 10 years based on national census Redistricting
– States draw congressional districts– Districts must be relatively equal
Consequences– Malapportionment - districts of unequal size– Gerrymandering
Drawing districts to favor a political party or group
– Baker v. Carr (1962)– Wesberry v. Sanders (1964)– Reynolds v. Sims (1964)
Florida’s 2013 U.S. House Districts
Gerrymandering
Congressional ElectionsPrimary Elections
Candidate gathers signatures through a following to be placed on ballot
Primary election determines party nominee
Presidential Elections
Held every four years Phases of Presidential Candidacy:
– Exploration– Announcement– Primaries and Caucuses– Nominating Conventions– General Election Campaign– Electoral College
Presidential ElectionExploration
Does a candidate have enough political and financial support?
Sets up an exploratory committee to find out
Allows for growth of candidacy with media coverage, national attention
Presidential ElectionAnnouncement
Candidate decides to run for office
Sets up press conference to announce candidacy for president
Formal declaration as a national spectacle to propose agenda
Presidential ElectionCampaign Strategies
Staff– Political consultant– Finance chairperson– Communications Director– Press Secretary
Visibility and Appeal Pollster and Tracking Polls Focus Groups Get Out the Vote (GOTV)
Presidential ElectionPrimaries and Caucuses
Primaries– Voters from primary states
vote for the party nominee– State delegates throw support
toward primary vote winner– Most commonly used method– Front-loading
Caucuses– Historically, state and party
leaders met and chose nominee
– Very few states use caucuses– Iowa’s caucus is the first
major electoral event usually determining the presidential candidate for each party
Presidential ElectionNominating Conventions
Political parties hold national nominating convention attended by state delegates
Choose presidential nominee, vice-presidential nominee, party platform, unify party
Democratic Party and Republican Party do not use the same system of choosing a nominee…
Republican National Convention
Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates
Unofficially determined by results of presidential primaries
In 2012, the Republican nominee required 1,144 out of 2,286
Democratic National Convention
Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates
State primary results determine candidate pledges
“Superdelegates,” not obligated by state results and chosen based on political status, can determine party nominee
In 2012, the Democratic nominee required 2,777 out of 5,556
Presidential/Congressional ElectionCampaigning
Position Issues– Issue which divides voters and candidates have opposing
views– Examples:
Abortion: pro-choice or pro-life Marriage: man/woman or heterosexual/homosexual
Valence Issues– Universally shared views and voters determine which
candidate is more likely to address/solve– Campaigns have recently concentrated more on valence
issues– Examples:
Low unemployment Low crime
Presidential/Congressional ElectionCampaigning
Television– Paid advertisement - spots– News broadcasts - visuals
Debates– Televised or town hall– Gain exposure, usually for
lesser-knowns– Could lead to showcase flaws
Rick Perry Gaffe
Direct Mail/Internet– Lists used to direct specific
issue-based ads to specific demographics
– Useful to earn campaign funds
Nixon - Kennedy Debate1960
1988 Presidential Campaign
Vice President George Bush (R) vs. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis (D)
Read My Lips Tank Ad Willie Horton Ad
Campaign FinanceCongressional and Presidential
“Money is the mother’s milk of politics.” - Jesse Unruh (D)
Sources of Campaign Money Campaign Finance Rules Campaign Finance Reform Effect of Campaign Finance
Sources of Campaign Money
Private individuals are primary sources– Federal government matches individual contributions to
presidential candidates Congressional candidates receive no federal funds
Political Action Committees (PACS) secondary source
Hard money– Financial contribution directly given to candidate
Soft money– Financial contribution given to political party as a whole
Campaign Finance Reform
Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (FECA) and 1974 Amendments– Required disclosure of donors– Limits on individual contributions– Established Federal Election Commission (FEC)
Buckley v. Valeo (1976)– Constitutional:
Limits on individual contributions Disclosure of contributions
– Unconstitutional: Limits on campaign expenditures
Campaign Finance Reform Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA)/ McCain-
Feingold Act– Banned soft money to national parties– Restricted PAC campaign ads
527 organization– Non-profit, tax-exempt political committee may not campaign directly for
candidate or political party– May address issue or character of a candidate– Publicly disclose finances and donors– Ex. Swift Boat Veterans, MoveOn.org
Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010)– Overturned restriction on corporation and union contributions allowing
unlimited financial support for campaign support ads– Ruled unconstitutional based on First Amendment freedom of speech
Campaign Finance Limits To each candidate
or candidate committee per election
To national party committee per calendar year
To state, district & local party committee per calendar year
To any other political committee per calendar year
Special Limits
Individualmay give
$2,600* $32,400* $10,000(combined limit)
$5,000 $123,200* overall biennial limit:•$48,600* to all candidates•$74,600* to all PACs and parties
National Party Committeemay give
$5,000 No limit No limit $5,000 $45,400* to Senate candidate per campaign
State, District & LocalParty Committeemay give
$5,000(combined limit)
No limit No limit $5,000(combined limit)
No limit
PAC(multicandidate)may give
$5,000 $15,000 $5,000(combined limit)
$5,000 No limit
PAC(not multicandidate)may give
$2,600* $32,400* $10,000(combined limit)
$5,000 No limit
Authorized Campaign Committee may give
$2,000 No limit No limit $5,000 No limit
Presidential ElectionGeneral Election
Electoral College– Majority of electoral votes - 270– State popular vote win grants electoral votes to
candidate Campaign in Electoral-rich states
– Top 11 states would give a candidate 271 electoral votes
– Swing States Florida in 2000 Election Ohio in 2004 Election
2000 Election - Gore/Bush
2004 Election - Bush/Kerry
2008 Election - Obama/McCain
Electoral Map (2012)
2012 Electoral Map by District
Results of Elections Maintaining Election
– Majority party/power maintains power and traditional voter loyalties
Deviating Election– Minority power wins with support of new voters, but voters
maintain traditional loyalties– Usually temporary due to current issues or events
Critical/Realigning Election– Minority power wins majority with new voter coalition and
maintains subsequent power– Occurs due to serious or extreme conditions and events
Dealigning Election– Voters less dependent on partisan loyalties– Split-ticket voting
Realigning/Critical Election
1920s dominated by Republicans in Congress and White House
Great Depression hits in 1929 1932 Election
– Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) establishes new Democratic coalition of blacks, farmers, southerners, Catholics, Jews, unions, and urbanites
– Democrats win landslide victories and majorities in White House and Congress