public higher education: public trust, private investment, or lost cause! university of denver –...

Public Higher Education: Public Trust, Private Investment, or Lost Cause!


University of Denver – Strategic Issues Panel

The Future of State Government in Colorado Presentation by:David LonganeckerPresident, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)



The Colorado Story A Perfect Situation







The Colorado Story A Perfect Situation

Perfect Storm orPerfect Opportunity

The Perfect Storm: Three Converging WavesThe Perfect Storm: Three Converging Waves

Wave One: Colorado’s Economic Competitiveness

Wave Two: Who We Are – Can Colorado Be Competitive

Wave Three: What Colorado Has in Resources to Commit to This Venture

The Liberal BorrowingsThe Liberal Borrowings

Knocking on the College Door (WICHE)

Beyond Social Justice (WICHE)

National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS) : www.higheredinfo.org.

State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO), SHEF Report, February 2010.

The Converging WavesThe Converging Waves



Wave Three: What Colorado Has in Resources

Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength

Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE IL

IN

IA

KY

LA

MDMA

MS

NJ

NY

NDOK

OR

SC

SD

UT

VA

WAMN

NH

TN TX

WV

WI

WY

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Pers

onal In

com

e P

er

Capit

a,

20

00

Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

MT

HI

AK

GA

KS

ME NE

NV

NC

OH PAVT

ID

MI

MO

NM

RIFL US

Low Income, High Educational AttainmentLow Income, Low Educational Attainment

High Income, High Educational AttainmentHigh Income, Low Educational Attainment

State New Economy Index (2002)

Top Tier

Middle Tier

Low Tier

Adams

Alamosa

Arapahoe

Archuleta

Baca

Bent

Boulder

Chaffee

Cheyenne

Clear Creek

CO

Conejos

Costilla

Crowley

Custer

Delta

Denver

Dolores

Douglas

Eagle

El PasoElbert

Fremont

Garfield

Gilpin

Grand

GunnisonHinsdale

HuerfanoJacksonJefferson

Kiowa

Kit Carson

La Plata

Lake

Larimer

Las Animas

Lincoln

Logan MesaMineral

Moffat MontezumaMontrose

MorganOtero

OurayPark

Phillips

Pitkin

ProwersPueblo

Rio Blanco

Rio Grande

Saguache

San Juan

San Miguel

Sedgwick

Summit

Teller

Washington

Weld

Yuma

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0%

Pers

onal

Inco

me

per

Capi

ta

Adults aged 25 - 64 with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher (%)

Educational Attainment & Personal Income by Colorado CountiesEducational Attainment & Personal Income by Colorado Counties

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S. and OECD Countries, 2005

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S. and OECD Countries, 2005

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2007

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S., 2005

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S., 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group – Colorado, U.S. & Leading OECD Countries

Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group – Colorado, U.S. & Leading OECD Countries

54.8

54.1

53.0

43.6

42.2

41.9

41.5

41.4

40.8

39.2

40.4

50.8

46.2

37.5

39.5

32.8

34.8

34.6

26.9

36.2

40.9

45.843.2 39.3

19.2

38.1

24.0

26.8

30.0

19.4

33.2

39.6

44.3

37.4

22.9

10.6

30.3

16.9

22.5

24.9

16.0

28.5

37.7

47.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Canada Japan Korea NewZealand

Ireland Belgium Norway France Denmark U.S. Colorado

Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008

The White Caps on the First WaveThe White Caps on the First Wave

We’ve Been A LeaderBut Slip-Sliding Away

Losing Ground:Falling Internationally (Comparatively)Mixed Bag Nationally

One Size Doesn’t Fit AllTwo Stories – The Haves & the Have Nots

The Public Policy Response: Thinking Here & ElsewhereThe Public Policy Response: Thinking Here & ElsewhereNational/Federal

The President’s Goal – Lead Again by 2020Increased visibility – Education & Workforce

Gates and Lumina

Regions & Their StatesEast: Status Quo, more or lessMid-West: A Mixed Bag

Rhetoric trumps action

South: Investing in EducationBut still disconnects

West (and Colorado): Question the Data Blame ImmigrationDisinvest in Access and Quality

Question the dataFight for Immigration Reform (Less and More)

Public & Nonpublic High School Graduates 1991-92 through 2021-22, Colorado

Public & Nonpublic High School Graduates 1991-92 through 2021-22, Colorado

Total = public and non public, all races. Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door

Actual Projected

WICHE Projections of High School GradsWICHE Projections of High School Grads

Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.

Difference in Education Attainment Between Whites and Hispanics (2006, Percent)

Difference in Education Attainment Between Whites and Hispanics (2006, Percent)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File. Via NCHEMS

Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-34 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000

Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-34 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census), Via NCHEMS

The White Caps on the Second WaveThe White Caps on the Second Wave

Those with whom we have succeeded are decliningThose with whom we have not succeeded are increasing“Average” won’t sustain us, and may not even be achievableAnd, One Size Doesn’t Fit All

Really Two Stories – The Haves & the Have Nots

The Public Policy Response: Here and ElsewhereThe Public Policy Response: Here and Elsewhere

The Good NewsNational Consensus Efforts

Complete College America (Colorado is in)NGA focus area for New Governors

Equity focus – Nevada, WisconsinAn emerging “Change” agenda – Metro state/NCAT

The Other News – Same Old, same oldMission creepFocus on highest achieving (financial aid & enrolment protections)Challenges to diversity & diverse populationsWhining trumps Changing -- it’s “their” fault

Students for not being smartStates for not being supportive

Life could have been worseLife could have been worse

Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriations and Total Educational Revenue per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1983-2009

Source: SHEEO, SHEF 2009

$4,9

46

$5,0

52

$5,2

76

$5,4

20

$5,4

93

$5,4

53

$5,3

50

$5,2

14

$5,1

01

$4,8

90

$4,8

33

$4,8

71

$4,9

61

$5,2

48

$5,4

13

$5,4

68

$5,4

65

$5,5

13

$5,6

13

$5,2

45

$3,9

91

$3,6

26

$3,6

81

$3,9

65

$4,0

75

$4,2

13

$3,2

55

$3,2

57

$3,5

26

$3,6

29

$3,7

53

$3,6

94

$3,8

01

$3,6

73

$3,8

73

$4,1

05

$4,3

56

$4,3

89

$4,5

41

$4,7

07

$4,6

88

$4,6

76

$4,6

98

$4,5

46

$4,6

00

$4,7

06

$4,6

44

$5,2

69

$5,0

27

$5,4

34

$5,1

55

$5,7

03

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Do

llars

pe

r F

TE

Pu

blic

FT

E E

nro

llme

nt

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s)

State/Local Funding plus Tuition Revenues per Student (FTE)Colorado Public Institutions, 1983 - 2008

Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (constant $) Educational Appropriations per FTE (constant $) Public FTE Enrollment

Note: Constant 2008 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment. (HECA) Source:SHEEO SHEF Note: Constant 2008 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment. (HECA) Source:SHEEO SHEF

But not in ColoradoBut not in Colorado Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriations andTotal Educational Revenue per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1983-2008

-$6,000 -$4,000 -$2,000 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000

Wyom ingWisconsin

West Vi rg in iaWashington

Vi rg in iaVerm ont

UtahTexas

TennesseeSouth Dakota

South Caro l inaRhode IslandPennsylvania

OregonOklahom a

OhioNorth Dakota

North Carol inaNew York

New MexicoNew Jersey

New Ham pshi reNevada

NebraskaMontanaMissouri

MississippiMinnesota

Mich iganMassachusetts

MarylandMaine

LouisianaKentucky

KansasIowa

IndianaIl l ino is

IdahoHawai i

Georg iaFlorida

DelawareConnecticut

ColoradoCal i f orn iaArkansas

ArizonaAlaska

Alabam a

Rankings and Trends in State/Local Funding per Student (FTE)Divergence from U.S. Average in 2008 and past 25 years

25 Year Average Dif ference

FY 2008 Dif ference

Constant Dollar Difference from U.S. Average

Note: All dollars are adjusted by HECA, Cost of Living Adjustment, and Enrollment Mix.

Source: SHEEO SHEF

-$6,000 -$4,000 -$2,000 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000

Wyom ingWisconsin


Virg in iaVerm ont

UtahTexas


South Carol inaRhode IslandPennsylvania

OregonOklahom a

OhioNorth Dakota






MichiganMassachusetts

MarylandMaine

LouisianaKentucky

KansasIowa

IndianaIl l ino isIdaho

Hawai iGeorgiaFlorida

DelawareConnecticut


ArizonaAlaska

Alabam a



FY 2008 Dif ference



Source: SHEEO SHEF

-$6,000 -$4,000 -$2,000 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000

Wyom ingWisconsin


Vi rg in iaVerm ont

UtahTexas



OregonOklahom a

OhioNorth Dakota







MarylandMaine

LouisianaKentucky

KansasIowa


Hawai iGeorg iaFlorida

DelawareConnecticut


ArizonaAlaska

Alabam a



FY 2008 Dif ference



Source: SHEEO SHEF

-$3,000 -$2,000 -$1,000 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000

Wyom ingWisconsin


Virg in iaVerm ont

UtahTexas


South Carol inaRhode IslandPennsylvania

OregonOklahom a

OhioNorth Dakota







MarylandMaine

LouisianaKentucky

KansasIowa


Hawai iGeorgiaFlorida

DelawareConnecticut


ArizonaAlaska

Alabam a

Rankings and Trends in Core Revenues per StudentDivergence from U.S. average in 2008 and past 25 years


FY 2008 Dif ference

Note: All dollars are adjusted by HECA, Cost of Living Adjustment, and Enrollment Mix. Total educational revenuedoes not include net tuition revenue used for debt service.

Source: SHEEO SHEF

-$3,000 -$2,000 -$1,000 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000

Wyom ingWisconsin


Vi rg in iaVerm ont

UtahTexas



OregonOklahom a

OhioNorth Dakota







MarylandMaine

LouisianaKentucky

KansasIowa

IndianaIl l ino is

IdahoHawai i

Georg iaFlorida

DelawareConnecticut


ArizonaAlaska

Alabam a



FY 2008 Dif ference


Source: SHEEO SHEF

-$3,000 -$2,000 -$1,000 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000

Wyom ingWisconsin


Vi rg in iaVerm ont

UtahTexas



OregonOklahom a

OhioNorth Dakota







MarylandMaine

LouisianaKentucky

KansasIowa


Hawai iGeorg iaFlorida

DelawareConnecticut


ArizonaAlaska

Alabam a



FY 2008 Dif ference


Source: SHEEO SHEF

Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations Public Research

Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations Public Research

Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS

Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations Public Masters and Baccalaureate

Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations Public Masters and Baccalaureate


Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations Public 2-Year

Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations Public 2-Year


General Operating Revenues Per Student Available to Colorado Community Colleges, 2006-07

General Operating Revenues Per Student Available to Colorado Community Colleges, 2006-07

Gen Op Revenues = State + Local + Net Tuition

Source: NCHEMS NCES IPEDS Finance Survey, 2006-07

ColoradoMtn

College

Aims CC Red Rocks

CC

Arapahoe CC

CC of Aurora

Front Range

CC

Pikes Peak CC

Morgan CC

CC of Denver

Colorado N’western

CC

N’eastern Jr College

Pueblo CC

Otero Jr College

Lamar CC

$20,000

$18,000

$16,000

$14,000

$12,000

$10,000

$8,000

$6,000

$4,000

$2,000

$0

Projected State and Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2016

Projected State and Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2016

Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009 Via NCHEMS

The White Caps on the Third WaveThe White Caps on the Third Wave

Prospects look bleak for much more in the short termNew Normal suggests a very different future than past.Triage often sacrifices the most vulnerable

The Public Policy Response: Here and ElsewhereThe Public Policy Response: Here and Elsewhere

A stimulus package that discouraged innovation and change

A funding structure that inadequately supports equity oriented institutions

Mission creep, which reduces teaching productivity

Tax cuts over tax investments

The Colorado story – Three Huge Converging WavesThe Colorado story – Three Huge Converging Waves

Demographics present a challenge, all else being equal

The finances are perilous

We have been educationally competitive, which has made us economically competitive and comparative just, but:

Were slipping And the good life has not been equitably distributePublic Policy inconsistent with the times or their needs

The Colorado Story – Three Real OpportunitiesThe Colorado Story – Three Real OpportunitiesOpportunity One: Our Economic

Competitiveness

Opportunity Two: Our Changing Demographics

Opportunity Three: Our Revenue Base

The Colorado Story – Three Real OpportunitiesThe Colorado Story – Three Real OpportunitiesOpportunity One: Our Economic

Competitiveness Colorado is relatively wealthy

Among highest Nationally in per capata income In the Nation that remains the wealthiest country in

the World. We have “the financial capacity”

The Colorado Story – Three Real OpportunitiesThe Colorado Story – Three Real OpportunitiesOpportunity Two: Our Changing

DemographicsColorado starts from a reasonably successful base, over allImprovements in serving Hispanic students, will reap huge benefits

The Colorado Story – Three Real OpportunitiesThe Colorado Story – Three Real OpportunitiesOpportunity Two: Our Changing

Demographics Positive Policy Trends

Pay for Outcomes Evidence based Many focused on reducing the Gaps

Renewed focus on smart need-based student financial aid

Preservation New Initiatives

Less is More in the Curriculum Reinvention of Remediation (CAT) Broader adoption of the Equity Scorecard Federal Initiatives – SAFRA & AGI

The Colorado Story – Three Real OpportunitiesThe Colorado Story – Three Real OpportunitiesOpportunity Three: Our revenue base

Colorado Has A Cost Effective System, so investments likely to reap results

Productivity: Total Funding per Degree/Certificate (Weighted*, 2006-2007)

Productivity: Total Funding per Degree/Certificate (Weighted*, 2006-2007)

29,0

75

30,6

19

33,2

73

33,7

56

34,3

30

34,5

94

36,4

98

37,8

23

38,3

64

38,3

65

39,5

16

39,5

16

39,9

18

42,1

77

42,1

98

42,4

08

42,6

93

42,8

47

42,8

73

42,9

48

43,8

20

44,2

72

44,3

71

45,8

33

45,9

04

46,5

22

46,8

80

47,4

53

47,6

72

47,7

49

48,6

11

49,8

94

52,4

91

52,5

72

52,8

88

53,5

35

54,5

53

56,0

90

56,2

80

56,8

88

56,9

60

59,4

20

59,4

65

63,8

22

64,9

34

65,9

75

66,6

23

72,8

46

75,7

44

79,7

94

86,0

09

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

FloridaC

oloradoW

ashingtonU

tahN

orth Dakota

Oklahom

aW

est Virginia

Montana

South Dakota

KansasG

eorgiaLouisianaW

isconsinIdahoN

ew H

ampshire

IllinoisM

ississippiA

rizonaA

rkansasM

innesotaO

regonKentuckyIow

aV

irginiaM

issouriN

ation

Ohio

IndianaN

ebraskaTexasSouth C

arolinaN

orth Carolina

Michigan

TennesseeN

ew M

exicoC

aliforniaM

ainePennsylvaniaA

labama

New

YorkN

evadaM

arylandVerm

ontN

ew Jersey

Massachusett

sH

awaii

Connecti

cutR

hode IslandD

elaware

Wyom

ingA

laska

Tuition and FeesState and Local

Sources: SHEEO State Higher Education Finance Survey 2008; NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (Public Use MicrodataSamples)

*Adjusted for value of degrees in the state employment market (median earnings by degree type and level)

Sources: SHEEO State Higher Education Finance Survey 2008; NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

State Tax Capacity & EffortIndexed to U.S. AverageState Tax Capacity & EffortIndexed to U.S. Average

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO)

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CACO

CT

DE

GA HI

IL

IN IAKS

KYLA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

PA

RI

SC

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

NM

TNTX

WV

WI

WY

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

Sta

te T

ax C

apacity

(Tota

l Taxable

Reso

urce

s Per C

apita

)

State Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate)

US

OR

The Colorado Story – The Colorado Story –

Perfect Storm

The Colorado Story – The Colorado Story –

Perfect Storm, orPerfect Opportunity

Our Choice

public higher education: public trust, private investment, or lost cause! university of denver –...

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