UNO TemplateDISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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08 September 2014
Entering the second phase of the reform
Focus on NGV price increase. Investors remain sceptical on prospects for
energy price reform which is perceived to be complex and politically driven.
We argue that our positive view simply relies on potential NGV (natural gas
vehicle) price increase; the government has already agreed in principle that
retail price should be raised to reflect its cost. The question remains only on
the timing of the policy implementation, in our view.
Market overly concerned about downside from the reform. We see
limited risk that the Central Administrative Court would ask PTT to return the
offshore pipeline as the court earlier confirmed that PTT had complied with
the ruling. Competition from the introduction of Third Party Access (TPA) is
not expected to materialise until after 2022. Negative impacts of the
potentially higher costs of LPG feedstock at PTTGC could be more than
offset by the benefits at PTT's Gas Separation Plants, which are likely to be
allowed to raise selling price to US$550/t from US$330/t currently.
Expect more clarity towards year end. We expect the implementation of the
NGV price increase to start by the end of the year with prices to be raised
gradually by Bt0.5/kg per month from Bt10.5/kg over ten months. Our earnings
forecast are yet to include any possible upside from NGV or LPG—this could
add 16% and 6%, respectively, to our full-year FY16 net profit forecast.
Raising TP to Bt388 by factoring in 25% probability of NGV and LPG
price increase. At 10x historical average P/E, the increase in NGV and LPG
prices would raise our NAV by Bt60/share and Bt21/share, respectively. We
factor in a 25% chance of policy implementation and raise our TP to Bt388
(from Bt368).
Price (LHS) Rebased Rel (RHS)
The price relative chart measures performance against the
THAILAND SET IDX which closed at 1584.32 on 05/09/14
On 05/09/14 the spot exchange rate was Bt32.08/US$1
Performance Over 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 1.8 11.1 — Relative (%) -2.2 2.4 -20.6
Financial and valuation metrics
Year 12/13A 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E Revenue (Bt mn) 2,842,688.0 3,068,671.1 3,071,550.8 2,958,282.3 EBITDAX (Bt mn) 237,543.8 293,137.6 301,367.8 294,015.6 EBIT (Bt mn) 155,878.0 186,347.5 186,315.4 173,282.3 Net profit (Bt mn) 94,652.3 103,102.3 107,028.7 106,416.5 EPS (CS adj.) (Bt) 33.14 36.10 37.47 37.26 Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. -0.4 1.1 0.3 Consensus EPS (Bt) n.a. 35.5 37.3 37.6 EPS growth (%) -9.5 8.9 3.8 -0.6 P/E (x) 10.0 9.2 8.8 8.9 Dividend yield (%) 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.9 EV/EBITDAX (x) 5.3 4.2 3.8 3.6 P/B (x) 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 ROE (%) 14.7 14.4 13.7 12.5 Net debt/equity (%) 39.2 28.8 19.3 10.8
Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates.
Rating OUTPERFORM Price (05 Sep 14, Bt) 331.00 Target price (Bt) (from 368.00) 388.00¹ Upside/downside (%) 17.2 Mkt cap (Bt mn) 945,435 (US$ 29,471) Enterprise value (Bt mn) 1,218,320 Number of shares (mn) 2,856.30 Free float (%) 34.0 52-week price range 342.0 - 264.0 ADTO - 6M (US$ mn) 33.4
*Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each
analyst's or each team's respective sector.
¹Target price is for 12 months.
Research Analysts
(PTT.BK / PTT TB) 2
Focus chart and tables Figure 1: Retail transport fuel prices in heat equivalence unit in comparison with
unleaded gasoline 95
Bt/litre
Figure 2: Estimated impact of higher NGV price
Taxi & EPS NAV
Demand breakdown 80% 20% 100%
Volume (tonne/day) 7,096 1,774 8,870
After-tax earnings impact (Bt mn)
Every Bt50/kg increase 1,036 259 1,295 0.5 5
Price increase to match cost of Bt16.6/kg 12,639 4,196 16,835 5.9 59
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 3: Estimated impact on PTT from possible change in LPG policy
Volume PTT sold at capped price of US$330/t 1.8 Mn t
Estimated costs 550 US$/t
Cap price 330 US$/t
Price difference 220 US$/t
Lower profit of affiliates
PTTGC (2,470) Bt mn
Net impact to PTT's consolidated profit 5,921 Bt mn
Net EPS impact 2.1 Bt
PTT's share price upside (at PER 10x) 21 Bt/share
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Retail price of NGV is less
than half of diesel price
NGV price increase to add
16% of profit in FY16 and
add Bt160/share to NAV
we expect, PTT's profit
Bt21/share to NAV
08 September 2014
(PTT.BK / PTT TB) 3
Policy direction is clear First phase of the reform has started
Reform actions have been made (Figure 4). According to the Permanent Secretary of the
Energy Ministry, the National Committee for Peace and Order (NCPO) has already agreed
in principle that energy prices should move to reflect market prices and subsidies should
be cut. Steps have already been taken to: (1) reform energy prices to reduce subsidies
and (2) restructure PTT.
The biggest concern is resistance from public, especially energy activist groups. Efforts
have been made to reduce resistance and seek legal actions against the distribution of
wrong or misleading information to create opposition against PTT and the Energy Ministry
on issues related to the energy sector.
NCPO's concerns about public resistance reflect in recent policy decision to: (1) seek co-
operation from E&P companies to stop exporting crude (5% of total production mostly
done by Chevron (CVX.N, US$126.8, O, TP US$150.00)) as activists question the move
to export despite Thailand being a net importer of crude and (2) keep the cap on diesel
price at Bt30/share despite attempts to reduce cross subsidies between diesel and
gasoline users.
Second phase: Focus on LPG and NGV price reform
The most critical decision of the government in this phase (now to be carried out by the
recently appointed Energy Minister Dr Narongchai Akrasanee) is the reduction of
subsidies for LPG and NGV. Big decision on LPG is on the controversial issue of PTTGC,
49%-owned by PTT, which is paying less for LPG compared to other types of users. For
NGV, the decision should be easier and more straightforward. However, the increase of
NGV price would benefit PTT which is now being attacked by activists on issues of gas
pipeline and LPG.
At the end, some kind of compromised exit may be needed, allowing activists their way on
some issues. We feel that the most vulnerable issue for PTT is the price that PTTGC is
paying for LPG feedstock while PTT has a stronger case on its ownership of offshore gas
pipeline and NGV price increase.
The process has started
be made on LPG
A compromise may be
needed to move forward
Potential impact
Dates Issues Notes on PTT
22-May-14 NCPO staged the coup
16-Jun-14 PTT restructuring Chairman of the Board and others board members resigned Positive
4-Jul-14 PTT restructuring New Chairman and directors appointed Positive
15-Aug-14 PTT restructuring First National Energy Policy Committee (NEPC) meeting
approving tax waiver for pipeline transfer and PTT's plan to
IPO a refinery, SPRC
Positive
Pipeline Public hearing on Third Party Access (TPA) of gas pipeline Neutral
27-Aug-14 Price reform First public debate between PTT and NGOs Mixed
29-Aug-14 Price reform Raise price of diesel and reduce prices of gasoline by
changes in tax and oil fund collections
Neutral
29-Aug-14 Gen Prayuth asked E&P companies to stop exporting crude oil
(5% of Thailand's production)
CS's forecast of upcoming events
4Q14 Price reform Further cuts in gasoline tax (now Bt4.5-5.6/litre, target
Bt3/litre)
Neutral
Increase in diesel prices by raising excise tax from Bt0.75/litre
now to Bt3/litre
Neutral
Raise LPG price for auto sector to be equal to cooking market
by raising oil fund collection
Neutral
Raising NGV price from Bt10.5/kg to cost of Bt16/kg Positive
Pipeline Clarification of PTT's gas pipeline transfer to MoF from
Council of State
Positive
1Q15 Price reform Restructure LPG prices to all types of producers Positive to PTT/Negative to PTTGC
Pipeline Clarification from Constitutional court on PTT's pipeline
transfer to MoF
Positive
Pipeline Conclusion of restructuring of gas price: Gulf Gas and Pool
Gas
Pipeline TPA becomes effective Neutral
Remaining of 2015 PTT restructuring Listing of SPRC, sell of BCP Positive
Pipeline Completion of pipeline separation into a 100%-owned entity Neutral
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
08 September 2014
(PTT.BK / PTT TB) 5
Upcoming events: Focus on NGV NGV—not a part of a conflict
Our positive view on PTT hinges on the potential for NGV price hike as PTT is currently
losing around Bt21 bn a year on NGV. NCPO has agreed in principle that NGV price has
to be raised to reflect costs. The remaining question is the timing and pace of
implementation. We see a strong case for PTT to benefit from NGV price increase (Please
see PTT: It can only get better, dated 27 June 2014 and Thailand Energy Sector: Energy
reform: A chance to make it better, dated 27 June 2014).
In the first public debate between activists and PTT on 27 August, the pricing of NGV was
not discussed, which we see as a positive. This supports our view that the increase in
NGV price should face less resistance.
-
Bt/litre
*Prices as of 29 August 2014, Source: ERS, EPPO
Price of NGV is capped at Bt10.5/kg at gas stations, equating to only 30% of cost of
gasoline and half of diesel and at a deep discount to PTT's cost of Bt16/kg. PTT lost Bt21
bn in 2013 from NGV. Given that the cost of subsidy burden is borne only by PTT,
historically the government has had no incentive to liberalise the price. This ends up
creating huge economic loss for the country as marginal supply of gas is from expensive
LNG imports.
Retail price of NGV is less
than half of diesel price
PTT lost Bt21 bn from NGV
in 2013
Figure 6: PTT's growing NGV loss, driven by both volume
growth and higher loss per unit as gas costs rose
Figure 7: Retail price capped at Bt10.5/kg, only enough to
cover gas costs
Gas cost 10.4
Distribution cost 5.6
Retail price @ Bt10.50/kg
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates *Gas cost includes 92 satang of pipeline tariffs and supply charges.
Source: EPPO, Credit Suisse estimates
According to PTT, around 50% of NGV users are trucks while 30% are private cars and
20% public vehicles (taxis and buses). The system to provide discount to taxi drivers has
already been in place since 2012 when retail price was raised from Bt8.5/kg to Bt10.5/kg.
Taxi drivers have recently asked the government to continue to subsidise them through
the same system or give permission to raise taxi fare. Truck operators have also agreed to
the price increase but have requested for more extended network of NGV stations.
Figure 8: NGV vehicles accounted for 1% of number of cars registered
# of NGV vehicles % of vehicles % of consumptions
Trucks 43,481 11% 50%
Bus 28,961 7% 20%
Total 402,965
Source: Department of Land Transportation
According to PTT, NGV is available in 22 provinces in Thailand. To extend to the
remaining 77 provinces, PTT needs to invest in distribution network and pipeline. PTT
plans to communicate to the public that it is prepared to expand the network if retail price
of NGV is raised to compensate its costs.
Could add Bt60/share to NAV if loss eliminated
The final decisions on these key issues are expected to be made by NEPC chaired by PM
General Prayuth. We reaffirm our view that there is a strong case to raise cap price from
Bt10.5/kg as NGV is not widely used and is not the issue of conflicts with activists. If the
loss from NGV is eliminated, we estimate PTT's SOTP to improve by Bt60/share based on
a P/E of 10x (historical average).
Relatively easy to do
Limited numbers of users
PTT plans to communicate
if compensated for costs
PM
(PTT.BK / PTT TB) 7
Downside not as much as perceived On the issue of LPG, the market is concerned about the potential rise in LPG feedstock
cost for PTTGC, a 49% petrochemical affiliate of PTT. We are more positive on the issue.
We believe the decision to force PTTGC to pay more for LPG will come together with the
decision to raise LPG price at PTT's Gas Separation Plants (GSP). However, the issue of
LPG is complicated and we expect the government to take longer to make a decision.
LPG: Bad for PTTGC, but may not be bad for PTT
The issue: PTT group has been under pressure by activists as the cost of LPG used by
PTTGC is lower than that for other types of users and SCC. LPG prices in Thailand are
subsidised by PTT (sells at GSP below its cost), refineries (sell at prices below
international prices), and Oil Fund (subsidises losses from import). Around 35% of LPG
demand is used as petrochemical feedstock by both Siam Cement (0.7 mn t) and PTTGC
(0.75 mn t). PTT argues that PTTGC, 49%-owned by PTT, is buying LPG cheaper than
SCC (US$590/t vs US$930/t) because SCC's contract has been made only recently and
it's not a firm commitment, unlike PTTGC's net-back-pricing contracts, which have been in
place since 1988 when the petrochemical industry was set up.
Figure 9: Retail LPG price structure among different types of users
(Bt/kg) Cooking Petrochem* Transportation Industry
Demand breakdown 32% 35% 24% 8%
Ex-refinery price 10.9 22.3 10.9 10.7
Tax 2.4 0.0 2.4 2.4
Oil fund 1 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.6
VAT 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.0
Wholesale prices 14.6 - 14.6 14.6
Oil fund 2 4.2 - 3.0 10.5
Marketing margins 3.3 - 3.3 3.3
VAT 0.5 - 0.4 1.0
Retail price (US$/t) 705 777 666 914
*Petrochem users are split into two groups. Average price sold to PTT's affiliates is US$592/t (before oil
funds and VAT) vs US$930/t sold to SCC group. Source: EPPO, Credit Suisse estimates
-
Refinery 1.9 mnt
Import 1.9 mnt
Source: NEPO, Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: NEPO, Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
LPG prices in Thailand differ
for different types of users.
LPG supply comes from
petrochemical feedstock
Risk: PTTGC may use LPG feedstock at higher cost
We believe that the issue will not be settled as long as the government's Oil Fund
continues to subsidise the import bill, and the prices paid by the public and petrochemical
users remain different. We believe it is fair to all parties to pay international prices and let
market prices dictate demand.
Any downside on LPG issue to PTT Group is likely to affect PTTGC more. PTT should be
compensated by higher cap price at its GSP as the return on GSP is likely to be regulated.
PTT is selling 1.8 mn t of its LPG and propane output at government capped price of
US$330/t, effectively losing Bt11 bn a year compared to its estimated cost of US$550/t. If
price at GSP is raised from US$330/t to US$550/t, our NAV for PTT would go up by
Bt21/share (Figure 12).
Figure 12: Estimated impact on PTT from possible change in LPG policy
Volume PTT sold at capped price of US$330/t 1.8 mnt
Estimated costs 550 US$/t
Cap price 330 US$/t
Price difference 220 US$/t
Lower profit of affiliates
PTTGC (2,470) Bt mn
Net impact to PTT's consolidated profit 5,921 Bt mn
Net EPS impact 2.1 Bt
PTT's share price upside (at PER 10x) 21 Bt/share
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
For PTTGC, we estimate earnings impact of Bt5 bn in the worst case that LPG cost is
raised to international price, implying a floor price of Bt55/share. We maintain our
NEUTRAL rating on PTTGC with TP of Bt65, weighing in a 50% probability of LPG prices
moved to international price (Figure 13).
Figure 13: Estimated impact on PTTGC if cost of LPG is raised
LPG purchased from GSP (in 2013) 0.75 mnt
PTTGC's cost from GSP* 592 US$/t
Oil fund tax 33 US$/t
PTTGC's total cost 625 US$/t
International price 888 US$/t
Price difference (263) US$/t
EPS impacts -1.1 Bt/share
% of 2015 profit -16%
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
LPG feedstock cost most
compensated by higher
from US$330/t to US$550/t,
up by Bt21/share
Expect PTTGC's profit to be
hurt by Bt5.1 bn a year or
16% of FY15 profit
(PTT.BK / PTT TB) 9
Gas pipeline—limited risk Pipeline ownership—clear arguments from PTT side
Activists are claiming that PTT has not transferred all pipeline assets (particularly the
offshore pipeline) to MoF as per order of the Central Administrative Court by citing letters
of the Office of the Auditor General of Thailand (OAG) saying that the transfer is not yet
completed. In 2007, the court ordered PTT to return to MoF portions of its onshore pipeline
which are built on land expropriated from public by using state power. The ruling by the
Central Administrative Court is final and there is no higher court for an appeal. In 2008,
PTT transferred 456 km of onshore pipeline built on expropriated land to MoF.
The court verdict doesn't specifically mention the status of the offshore pipeline but ruled
that the pipeline to be returned to MoF is the section built on expropriated land and funded
by government's budget.
PTT has defended that the transfer of pipeline is completed. The pipeline transfer was
conducted in 2008 under the review of the committee set up by the Treasury Department
(under the MoF) and consisted of representatives from the Council of State and the
Department of Lands (under the Interior Ministry). The court confirmed in December 2008
that the transfer was completed as per the ruling. PTT has also referred to confirmations
from the court and acknowledgement of the PM Abhisit-led cabinet in 2010 that the
transfer of gas pipeline has been completed. (Figure 14)
PTT is confident in its case and has recently filed the petition to the court seeking
clarification on the issue. MoF is also seeking confirmation from the Council of State which
was also in the committee reviewing the process of pipeline transfer from PTT to the MoF
during 2008. The Council of State would seek an agreement with the OAG in order to seek
an end to the issue. As a state-owned-enterprise, PTT has its financial statement audited
by OAG, but the auditor has never made any comment on its reports filed to the SET
(Stock Exchange of Thailand).
Figure 14: Key events related to PTT's gas pipeline after the court's ruling on 14 Dec
2007
Date Events
26-Dec-07 MoF set up a committee to oversee pipeline transfer consisted of representatives from
related ministries and the Council of State
22-Dec-08 MoF informed PTT that the asset transfer is completed
25-Dec-08 PTT reported to the court the completion of asset transfer to comply with the ruling
26-Dec-08 Central Administrative Court confirmed that all related parties have complied with the ruling
5-Jan-09 PTT received a report from AOC saying that the transfer is incomplete
21-Jan-09 PTT informed AOC of Court's confirmation on 26 December 2008
20-Feb-09 AOC sent another letter saying that the transfer is incomplete but court's decision would be
considered final
3-Mar-09 Court rejected the petition of NGOs and confirmed that the transfer is completed according
to the verdict
Court informed AOC that PTT already complied by court verdict
10-Aug-10 PM Abhisit cabinet acknowledged the completion of the transfer
15-Oct-12 Foundation for Consumers filed the case to court that PTT didn't not return offshore pipeline
2-Nov-12 Court rejected the case
Source: Company data
Activists want offshore
MoF
final clarification from court
PTT is now seeking
clarification from the Central
MoF to buy 25% stake in pipeline after separation?
PTT has set a target to complete the separation of gas pipeline and transfer it to a new
100%-owned company by mid-2015 as approved by NEPC in order to improve
transparency for regulators and allow for Third Party Access (TPA). (In its listing
prospectus in 2001, PTT is required to legally separate the transmission pipeline system
within one year of the offer being listed on SET but this has been delayed.)
NEPC has agreed MoF would have an option to buy a 25% stake in the pipeline. We do
not see this as a risk as the MoF's purchase of the pipeline will need shareholders’
approval. MoF will not have the rights to vote given that it is a related transaction, leaving
the decision to veto the transaction by minority shareholders in the market. As such, we
believe the pricing of the transaction will be fair to minority shareholders of PTT.
We do not believe MOF will spend over US$2 bn to buy a 25% stake in the pipeline where
it already has indirect majority control through its 66% stake in PTT (51% by MOF and
15% by Vayupak Fund). To ensure fairness for public, the government can always tightly
regulate the return of pipeline through the regulator, Energy Regulatory Commission
(ERC), without having to commit state budget to buy the pipeline.
Risks of open access to break up monopoly
PTT is the sole operator and owner of the gas pipeline network where tariff rates are
regulated by the ERC. TPA (recently completed public hearing) is set to be in effect by
March 2015. Even after the TPA becomes effective, we do not expect any impact on PTT
as gas demand and supply are fully contracted until 2022. TPA would only apply to new
gas supply (LNG, new gas fields) or new gas demand (IPPs which start after 2022).
Expect changes to Gulf gas and Pool gas structure
Natural gas price structure (Gulf Gas vs Pool Gas) will come under review in order to allow
fair competition for potential new gas suppliers. (Otherwise, PTT will have advantage over
new suppliers with its access to cheaper gas in the Gulf of Thailand). Difference in quality of
gas is also an issue driving the restructuring of the gas pool. This does not necessarily mean
that the pricing structure of gas supplied to the Gas Separation Plants would be changed.
Figure 15: Thailand's gas price structure
*Gas price in the Gulf of Thailand is formula-based and linked to fuel oil price, exchange rate, producer
price index in Thailand, and Oil Gas & Machinery price index in USA, Source: EPPO
Pipeline separation should
improve transparency and
allow for TPA
vote to block the deal if offer
price is too low
buy a 25% stake
Third Party Access (TPA)
Gas price supplied to
(PTT.BK / PTT TB) 11
Raising TP to Bt388 Factoring in 25% chance of higher NGV and LPG price
We raised our TP from Bt368 to Bt388 by adding Bt20 to our target price assuming a 25%
probability that price of NGV and LPG will be raised with benefits going to PTT. Based on
a P/E of 10x (historical average), profit enhancement from higher NGV price would add
Bt60/share and higher LPG price at its GSPs would add another Bt21/share.
Figure 16: Estimated impact of higher NGV price
Taxi & EPS NAV
Demand breakdown 80% 20% 100%
Volume (tonne/day) 7,096 1,774 8,870
After-tax earnings impact (Bt mn)
Every Bt50/kg increase 1,036 259 1,295 0.5 5
Price increase to match cost of Bt16.6/kg 12,639 4,196 16,835 5.9 59
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Figure 17: Estimated impact on PTT from possible change in LPG policy
Volume PTT sold at capped price of US$330/t 1.8 mn t
Estimated costs 550 US$/t
Cap price 330 US$/t
Price difference 220 US$/t
Lower profit of affiliates
PTTGC (2,470) Bt mn
Net impact to PTT's consolidated profit 5,921 Bt mn
Net EPS impact 2.1 Bt
PTT's share price upside (at PER 10x) 21 Bt/share
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Earnings upside of 16% and 6% from NGV and LPG
Our earnings forecast do not include potential benefits in case the price increase for both
NGV and LPG but conservatively assumes a 10% cut in pipeline tariffs in 2015 though we
believe the chance of a cut is low.
We expect NGV and LPG prices to move up gradually with benefits from NGV price
increase likely to come sooner than LPG's. The gradual price increase is expected to be
implemented in 2015 over the period of 10 months with full year benefits to be seen in
2016. We estimate annual increase in net profit of Bt16.8 bn from NGV price increase and
Bt5.9 bn from LPG price increase if all losses are eliminated. The impacts are the increase
of 16% and 6% in FY16 profit for NGV and LPG, respectively.
NGV price increase would
and Bt160/share to NAV
we expect, PTT's profit
Bt21/share to NAV
respectively, in FY16
08 September 2014
Figure 18: PTT's SOTP valuation
Bt/sh TP Value to PTT Current share price Value to PTT
PTTEP 199 181 165 150
PTTGC 65 50 65 50
IRPC 4 9 4 9
TOP 64 22 52 18
BCP 35 4 35 4
Value of listed entities 266 231
Non-listed downstream* 13 13
Gas business 147 147
Coal & Oil 49 49
Total EV 476 441
Net debt (81) (81)
Equity value 395 360
Higher NGV price 59 59
Higher LPG price 21 21
SOTP if policies fully implemented 448 417
SOTP if 25% chance of policy implementation 388 357
Source: Credit Suisse estimates
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
08 September 2014
(PTT.BK / PTT TB) 13
PTT Public Company Limited PTT.BK / PTT TB Price (05 Sep 14): Bt331.00, Rating: OUTPERFORM, Target Price: Bt388.00, Analyst: Paworamon (Poom) Suvarnatemee
Target price scenario
Upside 370.00 11.78 Higher-than-expected oil price
Central Case 388.00 17.22 SOTP valuation based on our TP for all listed affiliates and subsidiaries
Downside 255.00 (22.96) Affiliates correct to three-years low
Key earnings drivers 12/13A 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E
Dubai crude price (USD/bbl)
105.5 104.2 100.5 92.5 Gas demand growth (%) 0.95 (0.50) 4.00 5.00 HDPE price (USD/t) 1,369 1,416 1,417 1,418 Avg. Bt/USD 30.7 32.6 32.5 32.5 — — — —
Income statement (Bt mn) 12/13A 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E
Sales revenue 2,842,688 3,068,671 3,071,551 2,958,282 Cost of goods sold 2,618,298 2,809,485 2,806,369 2,705,729 SG&A 49,874 51,936 54,510 56,146 Other operating exp./(inc.) (63,027) (85,888) (90,696) (97,608) EBITDAX 237,544 293,138 301,368 294,016 Exploration expense 5,351 6,004 6,279 6,593 EBITDA 232,193 287,134 295,089 287,423 Depreciation & amortisation 76,315 100,786 108,773 114,140 EBIT 155,878 186,347 186,315 173,282 Net interest expense/(inc.) 20,394 22,009 20,839 19,093 Associates/JV — — — — Forex losses (gains) — — — — Non-operating inc./(exp.) (49) (1,625) — — Recurring PBT 135,434 162,713 165,477 154,190 Exceptionals/extraordinaries — — — — Taxes 47,692 57,763 58,744 53,966 Profit after tax 87,742 104,950 106,733 100,223 Other after tax income 27,383 21,692 26,677 29,895 Minority interests 20,473 23,540 26,380 23,702 Preferred dividends — — — — Reported net profit 94,652 103,102 107,029 106,417 Analyst adjustments — — — — Net profit (Credit Suisse) 94,652 103,102 107,029 106,417
Cash flow (Bt mn) 12/13A 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E
EBIT 155,878 186,347 186,315 173,282 Net interest (20,394) (22,009) (20,839) (19,093) Tax paid (47,692) (57,763) (58,744) (53,966) Working capital 11,840 5,730 3,575 2,514 Other cash & non-cash items 76,570 99,161 108,773 114,140 Operating cash flow 176,201 211,466 219,081 216,878 Capex (183,011) (130,013) (118,231) (108,886) Free cash flow to the firm 7,215 89,577 107,357 115,994 Disposals of fixed assets — — — — Acquisitions — — — — Divestments — — — — Associate investments — — — — Other investment/(outflows) — — — — Investing cash flow (168,986) (121,889) (111,724) (100,884) Equity raised 28,578 — — — Dividends paid (46,368) (39,988) (36,086) (37,460) Net borrowings 27,622 (20,280) (30,000) (45,000) Other financing cash flow — — — — Financing cash flow 9,833 (60,268) (66,086) (82,460) Total cash flow 17,047 29,309 41,271 33,534 Adjustments — — — — Net change in cash 17,047 29,309 41,271 33,534
Balance sheet (Bt mn) 12/13A 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E
Cash & cash equivalents 160,370 189,679 230,950 264,484 Current receivables 311,063 335,788 336,104 323,714 Inventories 28,798 30,967 30,936 29,833 Other current assets 22,912 24,280 25,094 25,642 Current assets 523,144 580,713 623,085 643,672 Property, plant & equip. 740,649 812,619 828,206 829,336 Investments 271,275 284,844 305,013 326,905 Intangibles 176,749 171,710 166,271 160,564 Other non-current assets 89,905 89,443 89,058 88,742 Total assets 1,801,722 1,939,330 2,011,632 2,049,219 Accounts payable 303,807 326,688 326,358 314,717 Short-term debt 60,280 50,000 50,000 50,000 Current provisions — — — — Other current liabilities 42,320 49,540 50,509 47,520 Current liabilities 406,408 426,228 426,867 412,237 Long-term debt 422,563 412,563 382,563 337,563 Non-current provisions — — — — Other non-current liab. 149,572 153,706 158,047 162,605 Total liabilities 978,543 992,498 967,477 912,405 Shareholders' equity 682,647 745,761 816,704 885,660 Minority interests 140,532 201,071 227,452 251,154 Total liabilities & equity 1,801,722 1,939,330 2,011,632 2,049,219
Per share data 12/13A 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E
Shares (wtd avg.) (mn) 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 EPS (Credit Suisse) (Bt) 33.1 36.1 37.5 37.3 DPS (Bt) 13.0 12.6 13.1 13.0 BVPS (Bt) 239 261 286 310 Operating CFPS (Bt) 61.7 74.0 76.7 75.9
Key ratios and valuation 12/13A 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E
Growth(%) Sales revenue 1.75 7.95 0.09 (3.69) EBIT (7.1) 19.5 (0.0) (7.0) Net profit (9.5) 8.9 3.8 (0.6) EPS (9.5) 8.9 3.8 (0.6) Margins (%) EBITDAX 8.4 9.6 9.8 9.9 EBITDA 8.2 9.4 9.6 9.7 EBIT 5.48 6.07 6.07 5.86 Pre-tax profit 4.76 5.30 5.39 5.21 Net profit 3.33 3.36 3.48 3.60 Valuation metrics (x) P/E 10.0 9.2 8.8 8.9 P/B 1.38 1.27 1.16 1.07 Dividend yield (%) 3.93 3.82 3.96 3.94 P/CF 5.37 4.47 4.32 4.36 EV/sales 0.45 0.40 0.37 0.36 EV/EBITDAX 5.34 4.16 3.81 3.63 EV/EBITDA 5.46 4.24 3.89 3.72 EV/EBIT 8.13 6.54 6.16 6.17 ROE analysis (%) ROE 14.7 14.4 13.7 12.5 ROIC 9.2 10.2 9.7 9.0 Asset turnover (x) 1.58 1.58 1.53 1.44 Interest burden (x) 0.87 0.87 0.89 0.89 Tax burden (x) 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.65 Financial leverage (x) 2.19 2.05 1.93 1.80 Credit ratios Net debt/equity (%) 39.2 28.8 19.3 10.8 Net debt/EBITDA (x) 1.39 0.95 0.68 0.43 Interest cover (x) 7.6 8.5 8.9 9.1
Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
12MF P/E multiple
12MF P/B multiple
Latest price Share price performance Rel. price performance
(lccy) 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M
PetroChina 11.6 5.6 14.8 24.0 43.5 33.6 2.7 11.5 11.7 29.8 20.4
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 8.1 3.6 8.7 14.0 15.3 37.0 0.6 5.3 1.7 1.6 23.9
Reliance Industries 1,024 2.5 3.7 -8.6 17.8 18.9 1.2 -1.5 -14.8 -5.2 -23.3
PTT 331 3.1 1.8 11.1 13.4 0.0 1.8 -2.1 2.5 -3.4 -20.5
Gazprom 138.2 4.7 10.8 -4.0 11.4 -1.3 0.0 3.5 4.3 3.9 5.7
Rosneft 236.5 4.7 7.7 -0.2 0.2 -8.9 0.0 0.4 8.2 -7.3 -1.9
Surgutneftegas 26.8 4.9 6.6 -1.3 -0.7 -1.7 0.2 -0.7 7.0 -8.2 5.3
Petrobras 19.3 -1.2 16.5 31.0 77.3 32.8 -0.9 12.5 28.5 71.0 12.1
Sasol Limited 637.1 3.0 5.8 4.6 9.5 30.9 1.2 4.2 0.7 0.8 9.6
BG Group plc 1,233 2.6 3.7 -1.4 13.1 -3.7 1.9 0.1 -1.3 11.8 -9.1
BP 455 -5.5 -3.9 -9.9 -5.2 2.1 -6.2 -7.6 -9.8 -6.5 -3.3
Chevron Corp. 126.8 -2.0 0.9 2.1 10.2 4.5 -1.8 -3.2 -0.4 3.8 -16.2
ENI 19.6 3.2 6.0 2.9 12.9 13.4 1.3 0.3 2.2 7.5 -1.0
Royal Dutch Shell plc 2,449 0.5 1.0 3.7 12.8 18.0 -0.3 -2.5 3.6 10.5 12.9
Repsol 19.4 2.5 6.3 2.7 9.6 11.9 -0.9 -1.9 2.7 0.6 -18.8
Statoil 180.8 3.9 0.1 -2.1 12.1 34.0 2.3 -2.8 -1.3 0.8 11.7
Suncor Energy 44.1 -1.2 2.8 2.9 19.4 21.6 -0.9 0.4 -2.1 10.5 0.3
Total 51.8 3.1 6.3 -0.3 12.2 22.9 0.7 -0.4 1.7 9.4 10.8
ExxonMobil Corporation 98.4 -1.1 -0.6 -3.2 3.5 12.6 -0.8 -4.7 -5.7 -2.8 -8.1
Source: Thomson Reuters
P/E EPS growth EV/EBITDA P/B ROE Net D/E
Target U/(D) Mkt Cap Div. yield FCF yield (x) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)
Company Ticker Rat. FX Price Price % US$ mn 14E 14E 14E 15E 14E 15E 14E 15E 14E 14E 14E
PetroChina 0857.HK N HKD 11.62 10.30 -11% 245,847 3.6% 2.7% 12.5 12.2 4% 2% 5.3 5.1 1.6 13% 35%
Sinopec 0386.HK O HKD 8.14 10.00 23% 112,163 3.9% 3.7% 10.2 8.7 11% 17% 4.6 4.2 1.2 12% 41%
Reliance Industries RELI.BO O INR 1,024 1,230 20% 54,794 0.8% -9.6% 14.7 13.6 8% 8% 12.3 10.6 1.7 11% 48%
PTT PTT.BK O THB 331 388 17% 29,471 3.8% 9.5% 9.2 8.8 9% 4% 4.4 4.3 1.3 14% 29%
Gazprom GAZPq.L U USD 7.5 6.5 -13% 85,732 3.8% -22.7% N/A N/A -55% -42% 14.8 62.5 0.6 -5% 10%
Petrobras PBR N USD 19.3 14.0 -28% 126,075 3.0% -16.5% 15.0 10.0 -23% 50% 8.3 6.3 0.8 5% 74%
BG Group plc BG.L U GBp 1,233 1,100 -11% 68,664 1.6% -3.8% 17.3 17.3 -10% 0% 7.8 6.8 1.9 11% 35%
BP BP.L N GBp 455 505 11% 136,191 5.3% 5.3% 9.6 9.1 10% 5% 4.2 4.1 1.0 11% 20%
Chevron Corp. CVX.N O USD 127 150 18% 241,385 3.3% 0.7% 11.7 10.7 0% 10% 4.7 4.4 1.5 13% 9%
ENI ENI.MI U EUR 20 18 -8% 92,085 5.7% 3.1% 16.4 14.2 4% 15% 4.3 4.1 1.2 7% 25%
Royal Dutch Shell plc RDSa.L O GBp 2,449 2,700 10% 254,062 4.7% 4.5% 9.7 10.1 33% -4% 3.9 4.2 1.3 14% 15%
ExxonMobil Corporation XOM.N N USD 98.4 95.0 -3% 425,037 2.7% 4.5% 12.7 11.3 9% 13% 5.6 5.0 1.0 8% 12%
Average 4% -1% 12.5 11.5 2% 6% 6.2 8.9 1.3 10% 27%
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
08 September 2014
BG Group plc (BG.L, 1233.0p) BP (BP.L, 455.0p) Chevron Corp. (CVX.N, $126.8) China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation - H (0386.HK, HK$8.13) ENI (ENI.MI, €19.58) ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM.N, $98.36) Gazprom (GAZPq.L, $7.47) PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC.BK, Bt63.75, NEUTRAL, TP Bt65.0) PTT Public Company Limited (PTT.BK, Bt331.0, OUTPERFORM, TP Bt388.0) PetroChina (0857.HK, HK$11.48) Petrobras (PBR.N, $19.33) Reliance Industries (RELI.BO, Rs1025.2) Repsol (REP.MC, €19.365) Rosneft (ROSN.MM, Rbl236.54) Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDSa.L, 2449.0p) Sasol Limited (SOLJ.J, R637.08) Siam Cement (SCC.BK, Bt448.0) Statoil (STL.OL, Nkr180.8) Suncor Energy (SU.TO, C$44.08) Surgutneftegas (SNGS.MM, Rbl26.775) Total (TOTF.PA, €51.77)
Disclosure Appendix
Important Global Disclosures
I, Paworamon (Poom) Suvarnatemee, CFA, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
3-Year Price and Rating History for PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC.BK)
PTTGC.BK Closing Price Target Price
Date (Bt) (Bt) Rating
21-Oct-11 54.00 63.00 N *
02-May-12 71.00 89.00 O
N EU T RA L
O U T PERFO RM
08 September 2014
(PTT.BK / PTT TB) 16
3-Year Price and Rating History for PTT Public Company Limited (PTT.BK)
PTT.BK Closing Price Target Price
Date (Bt) (Bt) Rating
13-Jan-12 322.00 374.00 N
N EU T RA L
O U T PERFO RM
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities
As of December 10, 2012 Analysts’ stock rating are defined as follows:
Outperform (O) : The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark*over the next 12 months.
Neutral (N) : The stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
Underperform (U) : The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
*Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ra tings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin Ame rican and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; prior to 2nd October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock’s absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stock’s total return potential within an analyst’s coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12 -month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total return calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and 7.5% thresholds replace the +10- 15% and -10-15% levels in the Neutral stock rating definition, respectively. Prior to 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings were based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark.
Restricted (R) : In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances.
Volatility Indicator [V] : A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24 months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward.
Analysts’ sector weightings are distinct from analysts’ stock ratings and are based on the analyst’s expectations for the fundamentals and/or valuation of the sector* relative to the group’s historic fundamentals and/or valuation:
Overweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is favorable over the next 12 months.
Market Weight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is neutral over the next 12 months.
Underweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is cautious over the next 12 months.
*An analyst’s coverage sector consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. An analyst may cover multiple sectors.
08 September 2014
Credit Suisse's distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is:
Global Ratings Distribution
Outperform/Buy* 44% (54% banking clients)
Neutral/Hold* 40% (51% banking clients)
Underperform/Sell* 13% (44% banking clients)
Restricted 3%
*For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform most closely correspond to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.) An investor's decision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdin gs, and other individual factors.
Credit Suisse’s policy is to update research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the market that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein.
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Credit Suisse does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by any taxpayer for the purposes of avoiding any penalties.
Price Target: (12 months) for PTT Public Company Limited (PTT.BK)
Method: We arrive at Bt388/sh target price for PTT based on a Sum-Of-The-Part (SOTP) valuation at the target price of its affiliates. We have factored in 25% probability of NGV and LPG prices increase.
Risk: Key risks to our target price of Bt388 for PTT include: (1) oil prices; (2) refining margins; (3) petrochemicals margins; (4) the Thailand economy and therefore gas demand growth; and (5) construction risks for new projects.
Price Target: (12 months) for PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC.BK)
Method: Our target price for PTTGC of Bt65/share is set in line with regional peers considering ROE (return on equity) generation and P/B (price- to-book) applied to FY15E, and weighing in a 50% probability of LPG prices moved to international price.
Risk: Risks that could impede achievement of our PTTGC target price of Bt65/sh include its exposure to the volatility of oil prices, petrochemical prices, and exchange rate. Also, there is a risk that PTTGC may reinvest its free cash flow in lower-return projects.
Please refer to the firm's disclosure website at https://rave.credit-suisse.com/disclosures for the definitions of abbreviations typically used in the target price method and risk sections.
See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names
The subject company (PTT.BK, 0857.HK, 0386.HK, RELI.BO, PBR.N, BG.L, BP.L, CVX.N, ENI.MI, XOM.N) currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse.
Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (PTT.BK, PBR.N, BP.L, XOM.N) within the past 12 months.
Credit Suisse provided non-investment banking services to the subject company (XOM.N) within the past 12 months
Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company (PTT.BK, BP.L, XOM.N) within the past 12 months.
Credit Suisse has received investment banking related compensation from the subject company (PTT.BK, PBR.N, BP.L, XOM.N) within the past 12 months
Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the subject company (PTT.BK, 0857.HK, 0386.HK, RELI.BO, PBR.N, BG.L, BP.L, CVX.N, ENI.MI, XOM.N) within the next 3 months.
Credit Suisse has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from the subject company (XOM.N) within the past 12 months
As of the date of this report, Credit Suisse makes a market in the following subject companies (PBR.N, CVX.N, XOM.N).
As of the end of the preceding month, Credit Suisse beneficially own 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of (0857.HK, 0386.HK).
Credit Suisse has a material conflict of interest with the subject company (0857.HK) . Any Nielsen Media Research material contained in this report represents Nielsen Media Research's estimates and does not represent facts. NMR has neither reviewed nor approved this report and/or any of the statements made herein.
Credit Suisse has a material conflict of interest with the subject company (0386.HK) . Credit Suisse is acting as financial advisor to both CNOOC Ltd. and SINOPEC on the acquisition of Marathon Oil Corporation's 20% interest in Block 32, offshore Angola.
08 September 2014
For other important disclosures concerning companies featured in this report, including price charts, please visit the website at https://rave.credit- suisse.com/disclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683.
Important Regional Disclosures
Singapore recipients should contact Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch for any matters arising from this research report.
The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this report have not visited the material operations of the subject company (PTT.BK, PTTGC.BK, 0857.HK, 0386.HK, RELI.BO, GAZPq.L, PBR.N, BG.L, BP.L, CVX.N, ENI.MI, RDSa.L, XOM.N) within the past 12 months
Restrictions on certain Canadian securities are indicated by the following abbreviations: NVS--Non-Voting shares; RVS--Restricted Voting Shares; SVS--Subordinate Voting Shares.
Individuals receiving this report from a Canadian investment dealer that is not affiliated with Credit Suisse should be advised that this report may not contain regulatory disclosures the non-affiliated Canadian investment dealer would be required to make if this were its own report.
For Credit Suisse Securities (Canada), Inc.'s policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of equity research, please visit http://www.csfb.com/legal_terms/canada_research_policy.shtml.
The following disclosed European company/ies have estimates that comply with IFRS: (GAZPq.L, BG.L, BP.L, ENI.MI, RDSa.L, XOM.N).
Credit Suisse has acted as lead manager or syndicate member in a public offering of securities for the subject company (PTT.BK, PBR.N, BP.L, ENI.MI, XOM.N) within the past 3 years.
As of the date of this report, Credit Suisse acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the equities securities that are the subject of this report.
Principal is not guaranteed in the case of equities because equity prices are variable.
Commission is the commission rate or the amount agreed with a customer when setting up an account or at any time after that.
For Thai listed companies mentioned in this report, the independent 2013 Corporate Governance Report survey results published by the Thai Institute of Directors Association are being disclosed pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission: PTT Public Company Limited (Excellent) , PTT Global Chemical (Excellent)
To the extent this is a report authored in whole or in part by a non-U.S. analyst and is made available in the U.S., the following are important disclosures regarding any non-U.S. analyst contributors: The non-U.S. research analysts listed below (if any) are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. The non-U.S. research analysts listed below may not be associated persons of CSSU and therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Credit Suisse Securities (Thailand) Limited .............................................. Paworamon (Poom) Suvarnatemee, CFA ; Wattana Punyawattanakul
For Credit Suisse disclosure information on other companies mentioned in this report, please visit the website at https://rave.credit- suisse.com/disclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683.
08 September 2014
(PTT.BK / PTT TB) 19
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Figure 2: Estimated impact of higher NGV price
Figure 3: Estimated impact on PTT from possible change in LPG policy
Policy direction is clear
Second phase: Focus on LPG and NGV price reform
Figure 4: Key reform events
Upcoming events: Focus on NGV
NGV—not a part of a conflict
Figure 8: NGV vehicles accounted for 1% of number of cars registered
Could add Bt60/share to NAV if loss eliminated
Downside not as much as perceived
LPG: Bad for PTTGC, but may not be bad for PTT
Figure 9: Retail LPG price structure among different types of users
Figure 12: Estimated impact on PTT from possible change in LPG policy
Figure 13: Estimated impact on PTTGC if cost of LPG is raised
Gas pipeline—limited risk
Pipeline ownership—clear arguments from PTT side
Figure 14: Key events related to PTT's gas pipeline after the court's ruling on 14 Dec 2007
MoF to buy 25% stake in pipeline after separation?
Risks of open access to break up monopoly
Expect changes to Gulf gas and Pool gas structure
Raising TP to Bt388
Factoring in 25% chance of higher NGV and LPG price
Figure 16: Estimated impact of higher NGV price
Figure 17: Estimated impact on PTT from possible change in LPG policy
Earnings upside of 16% and 6% from NGV and LPG
Figure 18: PTT's SOTP valuation
Figure 21: Share price performance
Figure 22: Valuation comparison table (as of 4 September)