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PT Distribusi Voucher Nusantara Tbk.
Go-to Solution for Everyday Digital Needs
27 November 2018
PT Distribusi Voucher Nusantara Tbk. (DIVA) is a digital converter and
accelerator company that connects B2B2C. DIVA introduces Intelligent
Instant Messaging (IIM) and Smart Outlet (SO). The company utilizes
phone credit distribution channel to build digital infrastructure and
ecosystem through IIM and SO where development and innovation is
limitless. Both products offer a more convenient way of doing digital
activities, while giving the solution for smartphone’s storage and
performance limitation as well as financial inclusion issue, all wrapped
in affordable yet flexible platforms and devices.
Everyday needs all catered in one app. DIVA capitalizes on the
opportunity of high social media usage in Indonesia by providing IIM
for digital product transactions and activities. DIVA makes it possible to
rely only on our must-have instant messaging apps (Whatsapp/Line/
Facebook Messenger/Telegram) to serve day-to-day digital activities.
The service is made available by adding DIVA to users’ cell phone
contact list. Users will then be able to enjoy a wide range of digital
services, which were previously provided through countless apps that
requires big chunk of storage and drains battery performance. As an
added value, DIVA builds partnership with companies to provide
customized digital transactions and services. We believe that IIM is a
very attractive tech platform since it reduces storage and
inconvenience by being a one-stop solution for many daily needs.
Financial inclusion supporter. Government is keen to encourage
financial literacy and achieve an integrated financial system in
Indonesia. DIVA comes to support that vision by providing Smart
Outlet, a unified multi-payment device that allows merchants to sell
digital products and do inventory management. This device that DIVA
produced accommodates a variety of multi-banks and multi-payment
format (debit, credit, flazz, QR code, cash). It comes in another version
equipped with identity card and fingerprint reader. We see DIVA’s
devices to be widely used given the benefits it brings to support
government’s financial inclusion and National Payment Gateway effort.
Support from Telkom Indonesia. As Indonesia’s largest telco player,
Telkom has a very large phone credit agent base. DIVA comes to
transform conventional phone credit retail distribution to a digital one.
This movement is greatly welcomed by Telkom Indonesia and is
supported by a special division made for enhancing DIVA and Telkom’s
partnership. We think that the aid given by Telkom will help to enable
DIVA’s rapid agent acquisition process, and thus drive sales higher.
Benefitting from the rising travel hype. Hand-in-hand with Smailing
Tour and telco providers, DIVA is going to launch a new form of travel
packages and promotions. Customers can purchase tours and travel
packages from DIVA agents and payment can be made in installments
in the form of bundling program with telco providers. We believe this
will grant a very attractive revenue stream for DIVA, given the
opportunity tourism industry has.
Taking into account the robust growth potential empowered by
innovative digital products that DIVA has, we value the company at
26x FY19F EV/EBITDA which implies a target price of IDR 4,950
per share. We view that DIVA has the capability to receive huge
enthusiasm from society and to build immense digital infrastructure due
to 1) Products’ mobility and ability to adopt any digital products and
services into its platform and device, 2) User-friendly IIM and Smart
Outlet, 3) Favorable relationship with banks, telco players, and
travel companies.
Paulina Equity Analyst +62 21 392 5550 ext. 610 [email protected]
BUY (TP: IDR 4,950)
Stock Information
Sector Digital
Bloomberg Ticker DIVA.IJ
Market Cap. (IDR tn) 2.1
Share Out./Float (mn) 714/214
IPO Price 2,950
FY19F Target Price (IDR) 4,950
Upside 68.1%
Relative Valuations
Target FY19F EV/EBITDA 26.0x
Target FY19F P/E 52.3x
Target FY19F P/BV 4.7x
2 DIVA | 27 November 2018
Company Background
PT Distribusi Voucher Nusantara Tbk. (DIVA) is a digital business
converter and accelerator in the form of platform and device. DIVA
aims to boost e-payment and financial inclusion in Indonesia, facilitate
digital transactions and activities, and level up Small Medium
Enterprises’ (SMEs) competitiveness. It applies B2B2C business model.
The company introduced two business initiatives: DIVA Smart Outlet
and DIVA Intelligent Instant Messaging. Both are purposed to enhance
digital products distribution and to aid enterprises and SMEs in their
business activities.
Followings are company’s breakthroughs in the digital industry,
1) DIVA Smart Outlet
Integrating payment system and PoS (Point of Sales) for digital and
non-digital products and services, DIVA Smart Outlet comes with its
simple, reliable, and secured smart device. The device enables users to
sell digital products and manage inventory system. It can also serve as
a cashier and receive e-money, debit, credit card, and QR code
payment from multiple banks. DIVA targets to distribute 24,400 units
of smart outlet for SMEs and banks. To enjoy the Smart Outlet. users
are required to pay IDR 150k (40% of the charge goes to Telkom
Indonesia) subscription fee per month to enjoy the complete service of
Smart Outlet including the internet connection. Additionally, DIVA has
KYC-featured Smart Outlet which is equipped with e-KTP and finger
print scanner. This will support companies to improve their productivity
and efficiency in customer-related process.
2) DIVA Intelligent Instant Messaging
DIVA tries to simplify digital sales and activities by channeling all digital
services through instant messaging. The system operates under
chatbot supported by Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology. Through
IIM, DIVA’s agents are able to sell various digital products. Users are
only required to add related contacts to their phone and do
transactions via chat instantly. Besides product marketing, agents have
the chance to acquire sub-agents where pre-determined pricing gap will
DIVA Smart Outlet
Source: Company Data, Sinarmas Investment Research
3 DIVA | 27 November 2018
be an additional income to them. Beyond common digital products
(phone credit, vouchers, and utilities payment), DIVA Intelligent IM is
able to connect to any company’s database to run as the platform for
online transactions and activities. Company charges IDR 100k per
month for intelligent IM subscribers and split 50% of the revenue with
telco providers.
DIVA Intelligent IM via Whatsapp
Source: Company Data, Sinarmas Investment Research
DIVA agent-get-agent
Source: Company Data, Sinarmas Investment Research
DIVA Inteligent IM via Telegram
DIVA data download
Source: Company Data, Sinarmas Investment Research
Source: Company Data, Sinarmas Investment Research
4 DIVA | 27 November 2018
3) Telco-bundled tour package. In addition to the prior mentioned
business lines, DIVA is currently on the way to enlarge its business
coverage into tourism field. Company has built partnership with travel
agents: Smailing Tour, to provide tickets, hotel, restaurant, and
attraction vouchers. In the near term, DIVA and Smailing Tour will
launch tour package which can be paid in installment in form of
bundling telco data package.
DIVA Shareholder Structure
Source: Company Data
Source: Company Data
PT KRESNA KARISMA
PERSADA
PT M CASH INTEGRASI Tbk
PT 1 INTI DOT COM
PT NUSANTARA UTAMA JAYA
MARTIN SUHARLIE
20,00%30,00%20,00% 10,00% 20,00%
PT BERKAH KARUNIA
KREASI
PT DISTRIBUSI VOUCHER
NUSANTARA Tbk
30,00%
PT SURPRISE INDONESIA
96,00% 49,50%
PT BERKAH TRIJAYA
INDONESIA
50,00%
PT Kresna Graha
InvestamaTbk (KREN)
Ingrid
KusumodjojoRaymond
Loho
Ninik
KusumowatiTjahjono
PT Jas
KapitalPT Hero
IntiputraPublik
PT Kresna
KarismaPersada
PT Pesona
Indonesia Pertiwi
PT Kresna
Usaha Kreatif
13,20% 99,38% 0,62%15,00% 85,00%9,00% 9,00% 7,50% 1,80% 25,00%
Michael
StevenSuryandy
Jahja
50,00%50,00%21,00%
PT 1 Inti
Dot Com
PT Gratia
TujuhbelasFebruari
4,50%
Martin
Suharlie
9,00%
26,00% 60,70%6,10%
NKT
RL15%
KREN
OB
99,99%
0,01%
85%KKP
AKM
19,55%
6,00%
AMI
PMP
6,23%
4,90%
BMC
SMS
26,46%
7,21%
GTF29,65%
IMLD
YLNI
84,00%
1,00%
ISDJ15,00%
KKP
NHJT
19,55%
75,26%
IK
MK
12,37%
12,37%
MS
SJ
50,00%
50,00%
SVHK
IJ
DKL
YYH
SJ
OB
MS
KS
16,70%
16,70%
11,10%
11,10%
11,10%
11,10%
11,10%
11,10%
Michael
Steven
Suryandy
JahjaPT Kresna
Prima InvestPublik
7,20%
LVA
SJ
15,66%
14,34%
MS
IKS
33,02%
26,98%
IA10,00%
PT CHAT BOT NUSANTARA
5 DIVA | 27 November 2018
Industry Overview
Lucrative market for digital products. According to GSMA
Intelligence: Mobile Economy 2017, mobile penetration in Indonesia
has reached 73% as of 2017 and is forecasted to achieve 77% by the
end of 2025. Those figures show an extremely rapid growth compared
to 41% in 2015. This level is higher than the global average of 66%,
indicating that about three out of four Indonesian citizens own a mobile
phone. With 265 million of population and being the world’s fourth
most populated country, Indonesia is one of the most attractive
country for digital market. Not to mention that smartphone penetration
or internet subscribers is also growing at a fast pace, rising to 59% of
total mobile user in 2017 (vs 51% in 2016). In line with the
smartphone user growth, total data traffic has also increased by an
average of 116% YoY in the last 4 years. As a result, average monthly
internet data usage per subscriber in Indonesia has risen to 2.0 Mb per
month and current growth will remain robust in the next few years.
Taking everything into consideration, we see higher mobile and
smartphone penetration as well as rising data consumption growth will
serve as positive catalysts to the phone credit industry and online
streaming business. Key drivers for industry growth include increasing
population coverage of 3G and 4G networks, more affordable
smartphones and data tariffs, increasing range of services and online
contents.
Connecting the unconnected. Association of Indonesian Internet
Service Providers (APJII)’s survey showed 54.7% level of internet
penetration in Indonesia from total population of 265 millions by the
end of 2017. This figure grew by 8% YoY and users are mostly
dominated by urban citizens (72.41%). In order to broaden Indonesia’s
internet connectivity, government has been undertaking
telecommunication infrastructure project, called “Palapa Ring”. The
project aims to ensure strong mobile and internet coverage nationwide,
and is expected to lower telecommunication companies’ cost. In
addition, despite higher internet penetration and data traffic growth,
data pricing has experienced a declining trend for the past few years
due to sturdy competition in the market. Indonesia’s data pricing is
currently one of the cheapest amongst those telco providers in the
world. Therefore, we think affordable data pricing should be supportive
for future data consumption, especially for online streaming business.
29.7%
43.4%
51.2%
58.9%
10.0%
30.0%
50.0%
70.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017
Smartphone Penetration
Smartphone penetration
Source: Company Data, Sinarmas Investment Research
Average monthly data usage per subscriber
Source: Company Data, Sinarmas Investment Research
6 DIVA | 27 November 2018
Social media in Indonesia. Tapping into digital age, social media has
been a part of our daily routine. It varies from the chat basis ones, up
to media sharing platform. We Are Social survey in 2018 revealed that
49% of Indonesian population are actively engaged in social media.
The count has been growing at 23% YoY, one of the quickest globally.
According to the survey, social media users in the country spent 3H23M
of their daily to chat, share contents, or simply scroll down the
timeline. Facebook, Youtube, Whatsapp, FB Messenger, and We Chat
are noted as the top five most used social media apps in the world.
Reviewing the facts, we notice that social media plays an important
role in our daily life. The practicality of social media to keep us in
touch, updated, and to assist in our regular needs make them very
enticing and linked to our day-to-day activities.
Financial inclusion level in Indonesia. Even though digital industry
seems growing at a quick pace and information can be very easily
accessed, there are still a big portion of few countries who are
financially illiterate. According to survey conducted by World Bank in
2017 on Global Financial Inclusion Index, 49% of Indonesian adult
citizens own formal bank accounts. The number has improved from
that of in 2014 where there was only 36% of account ownership in
Indonesia. However, Indonesia’s inclusivity level is still lower compared
to some countries in ASEAN, such as Singapore (98% account
ownership), Malaysia (85% account ownership), and Thailand (82%
account ownership).
Encouraging inclusivity. Limited financial literacy, along with
inadequate infrastructure and human resources have remained a
challenge towards financial inclusion improvement in Indonesia.
Indonesia Internet Adoption
Source: APJII, Sinarmas Investment Research
88,1
110,2
132,7143,3
35
44
5255
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
45,0
65,0
85,0
105,0
125,0
145,0
165,0
2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of Internet Users (million) Internet Penetration (%)
48.80
31.66
15.77
10.23
57.75
39.93
29.53
17.51
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
2014 2015 2016 2017
EXCL (IDR per MB) TLKM (IDR per MB)
Data Pricing for TLKM and EXCL
Source: Company Data, Sinarmas Investment Research
Social Media Penetration by Country
Source: We Are Social, Sinarmas Investment Research
Time Spent on Social Media
Source: We Are Social, Sinarmas Investment Research
19%
32%
42%
46%
47%
49%
56%
57%
63%
65%
74%
75%
83%
84%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
India
South Africa
Worldwide
Germany
Russia
Indonesia
Japan
Vietnam
Philippines
China
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
South Korea
Monthly active accounts on the top social network in each country,
compared to population (as of Jan 2018)
0H48M
1H12M
1H13M
2H00M
2H06M
2H19M
2H26M
2H34M
2H48M
3H00M
3H10M
3H23M
3H57M
0 50 100 150 200 250
Japan
South Korea
Germany
China
Singapore
Russia
India
Vietnam
South Africa
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Philippines
7 DIVA | 27 November 2018
Therefore, government through National Strategy for Financial
Inclusion has been trying to tap into the unbankable. A couple of
national campaigns and financial education such as SimPel (Simpanan
Pelajar) and Yuk Nabung Saham were conducted. Government also
developed Laku Pandai program where national banks recruit Laku
Pandai agents to help banks provide branchless banking program.
Recent development of digital financial services also contributed to
financial inclusion development. The arrival of digital banking, P2P
lending, and e-money have started to be widely accepted and used.
Those products offer various financial services in a simpler, faster, and
more flexible way.
Newly established National Payment Gateway. In-line with
government’s project to promote inclusivity, earlier this year it has
introduced National Payment Gateway (GPN) as the effort to integrate
domestic payment system and support banking efficiency by reducing
transaction costs. GPN implementation promotes the usage of EDC that
supports multiple banks transaction within a single device. GPN system
accommodates interbank electronic transactions with minimum fee
charge since data is processed domestically. Along with the
intensification of this program, banks are looking forward for EDC
which is able to serve multiple banks’ non-cash transactions where
DIVA, as the multifunction smart outlet provider is benefitted.
A glimpse to Indonesia’s SMEs. SMEs are one of government’s main
target to achieve and to become a turning point for financial inclusion.
It is led by the important role played by SMEs in the economic
development of a country, given their role in terms of distribution,
production, and employment. Government expects 5% YoY growth for
total SMEs which currently stands at 59.2 million business units. Most
of them, however, are still traditional or in-house industries where
transactions are done in cash.
Tour and travel in Indonesia. Benefiting from rapid digital growth,
travelling has been one of the top list of most people’s personal budget.
According to UNWTO, international tourist arrivals grew by 7% YoY in
2017. The importance and frequency have been increasing given
developing low-cost carrier, social media usage to promote travel
destinations, and growing numbers of millennial. In Indonesia itself,
tourism placed fourth in terms GDP contributor with 9.3% contribution.
In addition to that, as the most Muslim populated country that has
great traffic of Umrah visit to Arab Saudi. Last year, there were 876
thousands of Indonesian visiting Saudi for Umrah, indicating the
immense potential lie within the sector.
Source: World Bank, Sinarmas Investment Research
Financial Inclusion Index in ASEAN
22%
49%
29%
85%
26%
34%
98%
82%
31%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
CambodiaIndonesia Laos Malaysia MyanmarPhilippineSingapore Thailand Vietnam
2011 2014 2017
8 DIVA | 27 November 2018
Investment Thesis
DIVA leverages the internet, technology, phone credit allocation, and
relationship it has to build ecosystem, and infrastructure for future
digital interest. We take a look at DIVA, its potential for growth, and
what lies ahead for the company.
Serving your everyday needs in one app. DIVA Intelligent IM
accommodates connection to no limit of platforms and companies.
Multipurpose digital activities are made feasible by only ~3 days of API
connection. Users will only need to download their favorite social media
apps, be it Whatsapp, Line, Telegram, or Facebook Messenger to do
digital transactions and enjoy plenty digital services. Digital
transactions include purchase of digital products such as prepaid phone
and food voucher, as well as settlement of utilities, postpaid and travel
bills. Digital services include online data provider and data downloads.
Features will later develop into much wider range, from e-toll top up,
movie tickets purchase, up to covering the old-fashion healthcare
appointment and insurance products. The convenience of doing basic
activities in a single platform versus different apps for different needs
makes DIVA Intelligent IM very attractive.
Promoting financial inclusion and integrated payment system.
Smart Outlet allows merchants to sell digital products, do inventory
management and transaction analysis in a handy wireless device which
receives cash and all non-cash payment. The device is very much
beneficial for KYC process of banks or any other institutions. We see
Laku Pandai program provides an excellent opportunity for DIVA to
supply branchless banking device for the agents. Smart Outlet also
comes useful for modern channel on the back of NPG’s future
integration. The business line is also supported by government’s effort
to promote branchless banking and digitalize SMEs, indicated by 1,200
devices booked by banks. We believe that DIVA Smart Outlet is the
right pick for banks and any other parties associated with the go
cashless movement.
Support from Telkom Indonesia. Through Intelligent IM, DIVA helps
to transform the conventional way of phone credit retail distribution
into a digital one. This initiative is highly welcomed by Telkom
Indonesia. In the process of digitalizing SMEs and promoting digital
transactions, Telkom Indonesia aids DIVA through its strong
distribution channel, especially in the SMEs segment. We expect robust
growth of DIVA agents in the early stage of acquisition catalyzed by
cooperation with Indonesia’s largest telco player, Telkom Indonesia.
DIVA has had 17k agents in its circle, this year, we expect DIVA to
acquire 225 thousand of agents who then will be able to create down-
line or sub-agents. The acquired agents are also encouraged to seek
other members to be DIVA agents. The so-called down-line are able to
sell DIVA digital products as well, and the pre-determined pricing gap
will be an additional income for the recruiters.
Benefitting from the rising travel hype Current development of
social media has risen the urge of travelling, especially for millennials.
Internet helps to promote must visit travel destinations and hidden
gem discoveries. The travel agencies are there to help travellers by
working their connection, experience, and knowledge to ensure
customers to get the best travel experience. DIVA, who partners with
Smailing tour and travel along with telco providers offer travel
packages where payment can be paid in installment in form of bundling
telco package. The innovation in product experience offered by DIVA
and its partners provide additional attractiveness for DIVA.
9 DIVA | 27 November 2018
Big data mining. Through the infrastructure built, DIVA will be able to
obtain valuable collection of data which pictures beneficial knowledge
to both telecommunication and media industry. The data will be
essential for not only banking, telco, and media industry, but also any
B2C related companies. The information can be employed by
businesses to analyze the supply and demand of their products,
customers preference, transactions schedule, and assist in business
development. All is beneficial for data users to optimize their selling
methods and drive profitable action. We believe that this aspect will be
one of DIVA’s most important treasure as data intelligence has become
more and more important for business to make their strategic decision.
Number of Agents
Source: Company Data, Sinarmas Investment Research
12 14 19
244
394
494
569
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F
Number of agents (thousands)
10 DIVA | 27 November 2018
Key Risks
Risk from high-competition in the industry. Given the low-barrier for
entry of digital platform that DIVA is promoting, it creates a high
competition environment in digital market. It often forces players to involve
in subsidy game. However, we view that DIVA benefits from the full
support of Indonesia’s largest telco player, and the simplicity of platform
that it offers.
Risk from tight working capital. Phone credit distributor business nature
requires companies abundant working capital. To add, DIVA’s smart outlet
requires relatively high investment at the beginning of capex cycle for the
products. Smart outlet’s business nature also needs higher working capital
for greater number of smart outlet subscribers.
Risk from adoption process. Nowadays, people are offered with plenty
options of tech-products, including digital product providers. Therefore,
DIVA counters adoption risk as it has to attract target customers.
Risk from cyber security. Digital products are certainly open to security
risk. Hacking or virus attacks may linger along with DIVA Intelligent IM or
Smart Outlet operations which require company to figure out the best
security system to protect its activities.
Risk from execution. Tech companies are challenged to create a product
that can solve key issues in society and deliver the right output. We see
execution risk in regard to company’s unique business model, be it from
internal operation (platform, internet connectivity, contents) or issue from
other supporting parties.
11 DIVA | 27 November 2018
Financial Outlook
Revenue driven by digital products sold through Intelligent IM
and Smart Outlet. For most of us, gadgets are almost always within
reach. Therefore, we are of the view that digital products sales will be
the main driver for DIVA’s top-line. Besides the common phone credit
purchase, digital transactions from utilities and other payments will
also lift revenue for that business line. Worth to note that growth in
digital products is attributed to 1) Increasing number of DIVA agents
and 2) DIVA’s partnership with companies. Significant hike in number
of agents is driven by Telkom Indonesia’s full support towards
company’s digital program. Besides, DIVA’s collaboration to provide
platform for businesses’ digital activities will contribute to sales
numbers for the company as well.
1) Digital products sales
We expect DIVA to have ~571k agents over the next four years, while
robust acquisition will take place within 2019. Sales per agent on
average is expected to decline along with higher competition in sales
over time.
2) Digital transactions fee
In addition to daily products sales, DIVA will receive revenue from each
transactions made through its platform and device. We expect 0.5%
fee which is likely to derive from Merchant Discount Rate (MDR).
DIVA top-line growth
Source: Company Data, Sinarmas Investment Research
DIVA revenue contribution as of FY19F
Source: Sinarmas Investment Research
2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022FNumber of agents 000 21 246 396 496 571 Sales per agent Rpmio 62 6 5 4 4 Total sales Rpbn 1,290 1,522 1,961 2,210 2,545 Gross margin % 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Gross profit Rpbn 45 53 69 77 89 EscalatorNew agents 000 7 225 150 100 75
Sales per agent % (50) (90) (20) (10) -
2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022FNumber of agents 000 21 246 396 496 571 Transaction value per agent Rpmio - 10 8 7 7 Total transaction value Rpbn - 2,458 3,167 3,570 4,110 Net fee rate % 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Total revenues Rpbn - 12 16 18 21 Gross margin % 100 100 100 100 100 Gross profit Rpbn - 12 16 18 21 Escalator
Trx value per agent % - - (20) (10) -
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F
Digital products sales Digital service fees
Subscription revenues Travel revenues
87%
1%5%
7%
Digital products sales Digital service fees
Subscription revenues Travel revenues
12 DIVA | 27 November 2018
3) Subscription revenue
Smart Outlet subscribers are charged with IDR 150k subscription fee,
where IDR 60k of it goes to telco providers. For Instant Messaging
subscribers, they are charged with IDR 100k subscription fee where it
is split 50:50 between DIVA and telco providers.
4) Travel
DIVA taps into the travel industry by acquiring 30% of stake ownership
of Smailing Tour. We expect the sales will be generated from tour
packages, both religious and non-religious travel package.
Margin recovery. Going forward, we expect DIVA to see overall
margin improvement on the back of 1) Higher composition of lower
denomination phone credit sales (better margin as compared to larger
phone credit denomination, 2) Subscription and transaction fee which
directly translates to gross margin, 3) Sales of other digital products
such as utilities, payment, top-up and fees gained, and 4) Digital
activity fees derived from potential collaboration with companies.
DIVA margins
Source: Company Data, Sinarmas Investment Research
2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022FSmart Outlet & othersTotal agent 21 246 396 496 571 Subscription ratio - 10 10 10 10 Subscribed agents 000 units - 25 40 50 57 Subscription period - avrg Months - 6 8 9 10 Monthly subscription fee Rp 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 Total revenues Rpbn - 13 29 40 51
ChatbotsTotal agents 000 agents 21 246 396 496 571 Subscription ratio % - 90 90 90 90 Subscribed agents 000 agents - 221 356 446 514 Subscription period - avrg Months - 6 8 9 10 Monthly subscription fee Rp 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000
Total revenues Rpbn - 66 143 201 257
2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022FNumber of agents 000 21 246 396 496 571Agents selling travel products % 10 10 10 10 10Sales per agent Rpmio 5.00 5.20 5.41 5.62 5.85Total Revenues Rpbn 10 128 214 279 334Gross margin % 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5Gross profit Rpbn 0.36 4.47 7.49 9.76 11.69Escalator
Sales per agent % 0 4 4 4 4
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F
Gross profit margin Operating profit margin EBITDA margin Net margin
13 DIVA | 27 November 2018
Relative valuation. We use 26x FY2019F EV/EBITDA, arriving at an
target price of IDR 4,950 per share. We value DIVA by using FY2019F
forecasted earnings considering primary business lines will begin
effectively starting next year. We believe that the multiple is justified
by DIVA’s business model, which innovatively transform conventional
product transactions and activities into digital ones. This is further
supported by 1) User-friendly all-in-one platform for digital transactions
and activities, 2) Synergy with government’s financial inclusion
program, 3) Support from Telkom Indonesia, 4) Valuable big data
mining.
IPO Proceeds:
PT Distribusi Voucher Nusantara Tbk. expects to achieve IDR 750bn of IPO
proceeds. The proceeds will be used as follow:
55% for working capital
40% for investments in IT and distribution infrastructures
5% for human capital investments
14 DIVA | 27 November 2018
Income Statement (IDR bn) 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Revenue 1,058 1,714 1,297 1,743 2,362
Cost of Revenue 1,044 1,686 1,251 1,593 2,099
Gross Profit 14 28 45 150 263
% growth 201.3% 101.5% 59.8% 230.1% 75.7%
Operating Expenses 8 16 30 49 74
Opex to Sales (%) 0.8% 1.0% 2.3% 2.8% 3.1%
EBITDA 6 13 17 118 228
% growth -26.3% 19.0% 83.5% 403.6% 42.8%
EBT 5 6 9 123 210
% growth 102.6% 8.9% 46.4% 1326.2% 70.7%
Tax benefit (expense) 1 1 2 23 45
Minority Interest 1 2 0 5 8
Net Profit for the Year 3 2 7 95 156
% growth 71.2% -32.9% 210.8% 1305.3% 65.0%
Balance Sheet (IDR bn) 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Cash and Cash Equivalent 5 16 682 596 608
Trade Receivables 18 13 25 34 46
Inventories 25 97 104 133 175
Other Current Assets 9 16 130 174 236
Total Current Assets 57 142 941 937 1,065
Fixed Assets 1 3 10 127 170
Other Non Current Assets 1 1 4 5 5
Total Assets 59 147 955 1,069 1,240
Trade Payables 1 41 24 31 41
Bank Loans 43 74 102 105 94
Other Current Liabilities 1 2 14 19 26
Total Current Liabilities 44 117 141 154 161
Other Non Current Liabilities 1 13 15 15 15
Total Liabilities 46 130 155 169 176
Share Capital 2 2 71 71 71
Paid-in Capital 2 3 709 709 709
Retained Earnings 9 11 17 112 269
Equity — Controlling Parties 12 15 797 892 1,049
Equity — Non Controlling Parties 1 2 2 7 16
Total Equity 13 17 800 900 1,064
Total Equity & Liabilities 59 147 955 1,069 1,240
15 DIVA | 27 November 2018
Cash Flow (IDR bn) 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Net Income 3 2 7 95 156
Chg. in Non Cash Adjustments 2 3 3 22 47
Chg. in NWC (42) (33) (138) (70) (99)
CF from Operating (37) (28) (128) 47 104
Capital Expenditure (2) (3) (12) (135) (82)
Chg in LT Liabilities (2) (3) (12) (135) (82)
CF from Investing 43 42 30 2 (10)
Chg. in Share Capital & APIC 1 (0) 776 0 0
Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0
CF from Financing 43 42 806 2 (10)
Change in Cash 5 11 666 (86) 12
Beginning Cash 1 5 16 682 596
Ending Cash 5 16 682 596 608
Financial Ratio 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Profitability
ROE 27.8% 14.8% 0.8% 10.6% 14.9%
ROA 5.5% 1.5% 0.7% 8.9% 12.6%
Operating Margin 0.6% 0.7% 1.2% 5.8% 8.0%
EBITDA Margin 0.6% 0.7% 1.3% 6.7% 9.6%
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio 1.3 1.2 6.7 6.1 6.6
Debt to Equity 3.7 5.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Debt to Assets 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
Efficiency
A/P Days 0 9 7 7 7
A/R Days 6 3 7 7 7
Inventory Days 9 30 30 30 30
Key Assumptions 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Number of DIVA Agents 12 14 21 246 396
Smart Outlet Subscription Ratio - - - 10 10
Smart Outlet Monthly Subs. Fee - - 90,000 90,000 90,000
Intelligent IM Subscription Ratio - - - 90 90
Intelligent IM Monthly Subs. Fee - - 50,000 50,000 50,000
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