ps21 #talkingrevolutions transcript

8/9/2019 PS21 #talkingrevolutions transcript

1/22

Leaderless revolutions and their

challenges: a PS21 discussion

with Srdja Popovic and Jack Goldstone

February 2!1"

Jack Goldstone: I’m very pleased to be hosting this group. This is one of several

kind of intellectual feasts that the Project for the Study of the 21st entury is

organi!ing here and in "ondon so I #elcome those of you here in $ashington today

and those of you #ho are getting the information via the internet. I’m glad to have

you all here. %ur guest today is Srda Popovich. Srda is an activist& a politician& and

an author. $e have his latest book on sale here. I’ve already bought my copy and I

urge you to do the same. It’s called '(lueprint for )evolution* +o# to use )ice

Pudding& "ego ,en& and other -onviolent Techniues to /alvani!e ommunities&

%verthro# 0ictators& or simply hange the $orld. That tells you our speaker is

someone #ith indefatigable optimism. +e has been a speaker throughout the #orld

on the topic of nonviolent resistance and has been something of a guru for activists

in a #ide variety of countries and movements.

I heard last #eek at a conference here in $ashington that you can learn a lot from

scholars and books about nonviolent resistance& but there is absolutely no

substitute for the #isdom and inspiration of those #ho have actually participated in

movements that have achieved change and that’s something that out guest hasdone. I’ll say briey that my name is 3ack /oldstone and I am a scholar at the

/eorge ,ason 4niversity and the $oodro# $ilson Institute. I’ve spent most of my

career studying revolutions from the safety of the library and the armchair and

going over data and trying to discern patterns behind #hat this revolutionary

change and revolutionary success. So you’ll get the academic and the activist

perspectives here& maybe clashing& maybe merging& you’ll have to #ait and see.

I’m going to start #ith a fe# uestions for our guest and then after a brief

conversation here #e’ll open the oor to all of you.

Srdja& again& thank you for coming here and let me say #e’re sitting here& #e’re

being t#eeted and I hope this #ill be broadcast& at least the audio& on the #eb& and

I hope you get some traditional media coverage as #ell. (ut you said in one of your

presentations that you cannot change the #orld simply by sitting and clicking. $ith

all the enthusiasm #e no# about virtual communities& online activism& the role of

social media& T#itter revolutions& #hat are your reections no# on the role of social

media and making nonviolent resistance #ork5


2/22

Srdja Popovic: $ell& 6rst of all& glad being here& glad being part of PS21. I kno#

some great guys #ho are #orking there and I am honored to be on a PS21 event

and thank you to Peter 7pps& #ho is not here& but #ho really made this thing.

Jack: an everyone hear by the #ay5 /ood.

Srdja: So one of the reasons #hy #e came out #ith this idea of '(lueprint for

)evolution and this book presents a bunch of stories of the common people& #hich

I love to call hobbies& #ho are changing the #orld and some of them are traditional

leaders of political movements& people #ho #e kno# from history& people like

,artin "uther 8ing or +arvey ,ilk& and some of them are no#adays heroes #ho are

sitting in jails in 9gypt or #ho are running the sho#s in places like :ene!uela. 7nd

#hat you #ill discover is that these are people like us and I think one of main

reasons #e really #anted to step out of this book is that its people like us. Second&

is that these people are making change in the real #orld #hich addresses youruestion on the social media. $e tackle this a little bit in the book and there is a

great person in -;4& #here I teach& and he’s like lay Shirky& he’s a #orld#ide

e


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#ays that groups can learn from this child is something that #e’re really really

e


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Jack: -o# you mentioned the ease of dispersing information. Sometimes I #onder

if the media has made it too easy. In the old days& you had to print mimeos and

task people to carry them out to certain areas& you had to organi!e on the basis of

building trust& building organi!ation& learning to cooperate. 7nd those things are

still absolutely important right5

Srdja Popovic: 7bsolutely. I think the po#er of the organi!ationDThis is the thing

that the story book takes you throughD it’s a story of* 'It #ill never happen here.

;ou start thinking that fear and apathy in your society are too big to break. 7nd

then you think big and start small. 7nd small means achieving small& tangible

victories. Things like graCti& recruiting ten people& street theater. These things are

tremendously important because they sho# your commitment& they sho# your

presence& but they also build your numbers. 7lso they teach your people ho# to do

stuA. 7nd #henever you look at a nonviolent social change& and #henever it #as

successful& there #as a tremendous level of grassroots organi!ation. 7nd I think

nothing can replace a grassroots organi!ation in such a type of movement.Plus grassroots movements also guarantee that you can control your troops

because one of the thing you #ant to #in at is unity& you need a unifying force. 7nd

#henever you look at a conict you can have the perfect conditions for change& like

in :ene!uela no#& but then you have disunited opposition #hich is completely

incapable of challenging the government because these guys spend too much

energy 6ghting each other. 7nd then you look at the planning& #hich is e


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percent of the entire population& seems to have been involved on the peak day of

the movements and yet& that #as suppressed.

So this is frustrating at the very least& so let me ask* 0o you think that dictators are

also learning and becoming more eAective5 0o the tactics have to change in order

for things to #ork5 I mean& do you think the same things that #orked before 2B1B

#ill also #ork in the future or does the formula really have to be revamped5

Srdja: $ell it’s both. I think& 6rst of all& that there is another great book you’ll #ant

to read if you’re into dictatorship. It’s called 'The 0ictator’s "earning urve. It is

#ritten by Phil 0obson& the very person #ho is taking me to an -(7 game after this

event here and a dear friend and a great guy. +e #as looking at ho# dictators

learn. So #e kno# the groups learn& #e kno# there is hori!ontal learning& #e kno#

that there is training& and #e kno# that the groups are very creative in coming out

#ith ne# tactics. (ut also dictators learn. I think the main lesson that people like

Putin got& #as that they need to prevent these events before they come into place

and before the movements get into the engagement phase& #hich is the phase#hen #e are talking about the numbers& the organi!ation& and the strategies. 7nd

this is #here suppressing the movement is really really high cost& #hen you have

tens of thousands are in the street& you really need to invest a lot into breaking this

do#n. 7nd you can see that the dictators are learning as #ell and I think they’re

learning several things.

The 6rst thing they learn is to put a velvet glove on the iron 6st. There are more

-/%s shut do#n in oppressive places in the #orld for not follo#ing 6re regulations&

as opposed to being anti@governmental. They #ill 6nd a sneaky #ay to ban your

#ork. '%h it’s absolutely legal to have a demonstration in )ussia& all you need to do

is put do#n a E1B&BBB deposit. $hich of course you don’t have. It’s like& youkno#& there are #ays that they try to discover. Secondly& it’s also a propaganda

#ar. 7nd no# there are groups that are trying to distract people from the very idea

to get to this kno#ledge because this kno#ledge is coming from the I7& secret

service& #hatsoever. So they are trying to label this thing as something that is

e


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ho# you challenge authority& ho# you bring do#n regimes. "ike 6ve minute

animated cartoons designed for people& and of course translated and subtitled in

diAerent languages. 7nd this book is more for college students. This is not our

attempt to get scienti6c. 7t the same time& #e are talking #ith +arvard and -;4

and several very prominent schools about ho# #e can structure the online courses

because #e #ant hundreds of people across the #orld to participate. 7nd it comes#ith a great cost.

7nd& you kno#& getting educational institutions in this #ill not only help educate

activists. $e need elites #ho are educated in understanding #hat the movements

do. 7nd #e really have the elites #ho have a great idea about #hat movements do.

I mean& look at the contemporary media. The reason I’m honored that Peter invited

me to be #ith PS21 is that ho# pissed oA I get #hen I #atch mainstream media.

9very time there is an anchor standing in front of a cro#d saying& '+o# beautiful

spontaneous demonstration isD I mean& for /od’s sake& there are only t#o types

of political movements in history* they’re either spontaneous or successful. %k&

there is no such thing as a spontaneous and successful nonviolent movement.

(ecause you don’t get from ten to ten percent of the population by beingspontaneous. -o& you get there by being strategic& by planning& by recruiting&

achieving small victories& getting to unity& and also focusing on t#o things& #hich

this book is about. %ne is doing political ju@jitsu #ith oppression because you can

make oppression back6re and groups have done this in the past. 7nd& at the same

time& the use of humor. 7nd this book tells a lot about ho# humor is an unlikely& but

very very po#erful tool against diAerent opponents. Sometimes all it takes to bring

do#n state actors and politicians is kno#ing ho# sensitive they are.

#udience $uestion: ould you give us an e


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stupid thing* they arrested the barrel. So no# they’re dragging the barrel into the

police car and stuA like that. Photo Slate published this photo #hich is in the book.

So& #here ever you look& humor plays a major& gigantic role of successful nonviolent

movements. ;ou #ant to look at )ussia in 2B12. ;ou have these protests in St.

Petersburg and ,osco# and the government #as clever not to bring them do#n

but& any#here else& you couldn’t protest so in small to#n in Siberia& #hich is theplace I can’t 6nd on a map& 6ve thousand people beg& and here are the people #ith

a great idea. They take the "ego toys from their kits and build a "ego to#n and

here come the "ego toys #ith signs that say '1BFG for Putin& protesting the

election fraud. 7nd the 6rst day& everyone is taping& everyone is having& the police

are happy& but then it goes on ;ouTube and it get viral. The 8remlin calls the police

chief in this little to#n of Siberia and says& 'This must stop. So no# the protesters&

#hen they apply for the ne


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Jack: $ell& I’m going to be the dry academic here. I agree #ith you that laughter is

critical& but I going to ask you to get serious for a moment here.

Srdja: :ery diCcult to makes Serbs serious. ;ou tried bombing our country and it

didn’t #ork.

Jack: ;ou did a #onderful T90 video in 2B11 on ho# to topple dictators in #hich

you described 2B11 very colorfully and accurately I thought as a 'bad year for bad

people. 7nd it #as. ertainly& +osni ,ubarak and Hine 9l 7bidine (en 7li and

,uammar /adda6 lost their countries& (ashar al@7ssad lost about a third to a half of

his country and it #as a year really full of hope. I mean& the lessons that you tried

to communicate and that other nonviolent activists tried to communicate seemed to

be paying oA. In 9gypt& people took back the street& they took back control of their

country& and they achieved a popular election for president for the 6rst time in

history. In "ibya& people managed to unite from the -orth and the South& the 9ast

and the $est against great odds and overcame a very brutal regime that reuired

bombing as a support& but they did overcome /adda6 and his mercenaries. 7nd in

Tunisia they had it best of all. The lessons of organi!ation seemed to be follo#ed

and people not only organi!ed to force (en 7li out& but they continued to use their

organi!ations to build the basis for compromise and ne# institutions. 4nfortunately&

#e no# look at 2B1 and it looks like a good year for bad people.

Srdja: %r the year of bad hangovers as I like to call it.

Jack: ;es perhaps. %r a bad year for good people if you #ant to look at it that #ay

because a lot of good people have taken some very harsh blo#s in Syria& the

4kraine& and in 9gypt. So my uestion no# is* reecting on #hat’s happened in the

last three years& #hat lessons do you dra# about ho# did things that started so #ell

turn out in such a disappointing fashion5 7re there things like opportunities that

#ere missed& lessons that are even more vital for the future5 +o# do #e

understand #hat happened because& frankly& a lot of my friends in 9gypt& and even

the 4kraine are starting to lose hope. They think that this doesn’t #ork so it #as be

great if you could say& '0on’t give up hope. +ere are some things that could havebeen done diAerently& and there are still reasons to be hopeful going for#ard.

Srdja: 7bsolutely& and I think the challenge of 6nishing #hat you started& #hich is

one of the things #e talk about& it starts #ith 9gypt& the book starts #ith 9gyptian

activism and Serbia and it ends #ith them being in a desperate situation. So it’s


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like #e are follo#ing several of these things. =irst of all& failures are the places to

learn& far more than the victories& and I think this is #hat #e need to all look at.

Jack: Spoken like a true entrepreneur.

Srdja: 7nd the point here is that it’s really diCcult to ans#er the uestion& '$hy do

movements fail5 There are so many diAerent reasons #hy movements fail and

they can fail in the very early stage like %ccupy if they can’t de6ne the strategy or

fail to build up the numbers or the serious organi!ation. They can fail in the

engagement phase by making strategy mistakes. In 2BBJ in (urma& they built

number and then they just lost the oAense and allo#ed the military to do #hatever

they #anted to do. =rom Tiananmen& there is a story here from a hinese dissident&

#hom I met during the research for the book& and he told me this tremendous thing.

There #ere a lot of things that the hinese government #as ready to succumb to

during the negotiations in Tiananmen. If these people #ould go for a settledagreement& proclaimed victory& and got out of there& hina #ould probably be a

very diAerent place right no#. There are also many many failures. If you look at the

Stephan?heno#eth book called& '$hy ivil )esistance $orks& and they come out

#ith the hard data& and I love these t#o #omen. They are my idols and I am glad I

can call ,aria a friend. I also kno# 9rica. They say that forty@t#o percent of

successful nonviolent struggles end up in a democracy. That’s a lot. If you have a

cancer called ,ubarak and someone gives you medicine #ith a forty@t#o percent

chance to get rid of this cancer& you #ill probably take the medicine #ithout even

thinking. (ut then #hat about the other 6fty@eight percent5 This is a large portion.

7nd then you look at the successful transitions and the messy transitions. The only

things #e can say are form our e


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%ne thing to understand is that this is a process and that this process should be

planned very early.

The second thing is losing unity too early and think unity& #hich is very important

for victory #hether #e are talking about the political unity #hich #as important in

Serbia or the religious unity or the ethnic unity& #hich #as part of the reason #hy

Syria failed& because the Sunnis couldn’t bring the 8urds and the hristians to theirside in opposed 7ssad. That’s e


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uneducated house#ives together #ith left@leaning cool students #ith piercings& and

going outside of the !one of comfort.

The real problem #ith these movements is that sometimes you feel so good and so

right that you don’t even #ant to spoil this. 7nd also it’s problematic #ith %ccupythat they have adopted this #aves hands #e need to build a consensus around

everything every time. That’s death for an organi!ation. 0emocracy should e


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Srdja: $ell& 6rst of all& glad to see you here& and I’m really glad this uestion comes

through. 7s you said& also& I think there’s a very underestimated understanding of

#hy this coalition building is important and I think the 6rst step is to see the vision

of tomorro#. It is& #hat is the smallest common denominator your movement comes

out #ith and ho# this relates to diAerent uotient groups.

7nd in Serbian e


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/roups too rarely do this kind of stuA. 7nd then the ne


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Srdja: I didn’t understand it because you kno# if you #ant to lead a nonviolent

movementDand then you need t#o types of leadership. There is a great friend of

mine and the ;oda of nonviolent struggle& (ob +ally& #ho #as mentioned in the

book& he often says Uthis is like #atching the #ild river from the top of the

mountain.’ ;ou have somebody sitting on the top of the mountain and thensomebody #ho takes care of the scrottage. (ecause if you’re in a boat you see only

the ne


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7s it happened& =erguson #as not one of those. =erguson #as unfortunately one of

those areas #here there #as still a residual eAect of an over#helmingly #hite police

force in #hat had become a majority black community. 7nd that’s al#ays been a

high risk situation and it’s not surprising that it started. $hat is& I think& good is that

it did provoke a series of e


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core of the police force& they #ant to keep them on their side. 7nd this is one

lesson.

$hen it comes to nonviolent discipline I think this is key to understanding

nonviolent struggle. 7nd as you said #ith the +ong 8ong activists& and #e #rote apiece in Slate about ho# that’s the #orld’s most polite protestorsNthese guys

published a manual on ho# to deal #ith the police #eeks before they #ent in the

street. 7nd they performed trainings for hundreds of people to make sure that none

of their activists #ere out of line. 7nd they make it an ideology.

7lso& one of the things that you #ant to do& you can bet that there #ill be a ne#

case of a #hite policeman killing a black person in anger& as you can bet that there

#ill be a ne


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Jack: Second uestion5

7udience ,ember* ,y uestion involves inclusion in an institution #here you have

to e


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Srdja: ;esL 9very other (osnian is an elected paid oCcial. So it’s probably the most

ineCcient andDso there are so many things on #hich you can cooperate and

6nding the smallest common denominator can sometimes be tough but you can do

it& and I think (osnians and Serbs& they’re capable of cooperating. 9specially

because they’re having a very lousy economic perspective& they feel humiliated.

7nd I think there can be a smallest common denominator for people to functionthere.

$hat #as funny is that the people #ho #ere protesting& they’re from diAerent parts

of (osnia& #hich #as completely uncooperative but they #ere protesting for the

same reasons. So that #as really #eird. I agree #ith you.

lictivism& you don’t 6ght clicktivism& you just understand that it and ne# media are

the tools& not the means. 7nd you stop measuring things by numbers of clicks.

That’s #hat the ne# media brought us& the super fast Uoh& this has been sharedK&BBB timesL This is really importantL’ -o& it’s not really important& it doesn’t make a

change on the ground.

Inclusion and e


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#ith the government daily on press conferences meeting us in the bars at night and

giving us the money. (ecause the #ay these guys #ork& they play red on roulette&

but they also #ant to play a little bit the black& because you never kno# ho# it

#illDand their interest is to run their business ho#ever change dictates.

7nd last and most important& you can take money from internationals& but you #ant

to avoid governments. (ecause the governments often don’t have friends& they

have interests. So if you can use the money for your o#n purposes instead of

follo#ing somebody else’s agenda& I #ould advise to do that. If you are not sure

#hether this money #ill taint you& I say don’t take it. (ecause it’s al#ays easy to

bypass the money and 6ll it #ith more #ork. So this is the money issue.

+o# to make nuclear conference interesting5 $ell& I don’t kno#& make them read

this book.

'iane: The -/%s& yeah.

Srdja: The -/%s. I think there are plenty of -/%s across the #orld #ho do very

important stuA. I’mDif you read the book you #ill 6nd me sometimes being very

evil to#ards the -/%ism of this #orld because I found thisDI really hate 6nding

myself in conferences #here you 6nd people from oppressed and poor countries in

7frica running around in their suits shooting out the phrases like possibility@building

or social entrepreneurship. I think these guys are actually #asting the resources of

the real guys in the 6eld. $hich doesn’t necessarily need to relate to the nuclear#eapon control and I think there are a lot of good -/%s across the #orld and this is

#hy #e really #rote this book& simply and easy& not for the real scientists like my

friend over here& like his colleague and my great friend "ester 8urt!D

Jack: ;eah& yeah.

'iane: So even I can understand it.

Srdja: 9ven I can understand itL

Jack: I also #rote a simple book on revolutions. It’s called )evolutions* 7 :ery Short

Introduction& it’s about 1B pages so it’s even shorter I think.


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Srdja: +o# many footnotes5

Jack: -oneL It’s %

ps21 #talkingrevolutions transcript

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