prospects of carbon markets post 2012
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Learn about possible post 2012 carbon market options.TRANSCRIPT
ACX Executive Climate Change and Carbon Trading Course
Nairobi, November 2012
Prospects of Carbon Market in Post 2012 Period
Stephen NdiboiSDS Consulting Ltd
Email: [email protected]: +254 721955727
The carbon market depends on demand created by policy We are now entering a period of uncertain
demand, with positive prospects in the long term (2015)
Expecting to see a new commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol agreed at Qatar in November/December
Proliferation of Emissions Trading Schemes around the world with prospects for CDM
Demand for CERs will therefore continue, but with new limits
Quantitative and qualitative limits exist on the demand side
For example, in the EU there is a preference for LDCs & SIDS, no HFC‐23 e.tc.
The dominant countries in the global carbon market
Comparison of rules in some demand centres
EU and CER price forecasts to 2017
Competition to the CDM as new supply mechanism come online
Will credits from new mechanisms (eg NAMA, REDD) compete with CERs?
Not likely to see much volume before 2020 from NAMA. Japan’s bilateral scheme and REDD credits to generate approximately 500 million credits together by 2020
New mechanisms may borrow from the CDM’s experience in standardized baselines and PoAs, particularly in the case of NAMAs
Impacts on the future of climate policy
• Unified world: Kyoto• Global agreement with global carbon currency• “Gold standard” currency system
• Fragmented world: Pledge & review• Country groups with distinct carbon market systems• Hodgepodge of non-convertible currencies
Durban’s silver lining…
Negotiations “to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the UNFCCC applicable to all Parties”
Ad-Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action” (AWG-DPEA)
Deadline in 2015
Commitments starting by 2020
Durban’s silver lining…
For the first time developing and industrialized countries agree on a common approach!
But Copenhagen specter looms..
EU ETS WCI
(2013)RGGI PRChina
(2013?)
NSW
NZ ETS
National ETS
Sub-national ETS
TokyoKorea
(2015?)
CDM projects
CDM projects accepted in the EU
Taiwan(201x?)
Links
AustralianETS 2015
Pull-out of Kyoto 2nd CP
Ongoing fragmentation
Durban summary International climate negotiations dodge or
defer the key contentious issues until 2015/2020
Nobody wanted be responsible for destruction of the institutional framework of the Kyoto Protocol and thus it survived
The EU has surprisingly retaken its role as pioneer, with India playing the “bad guy”
ALBA socialists were rebuffed, like in Cancun
Qatar COP 18 will showcase the Middle East!
International climate policy 2008-2020
2008-2012 2013-2020 2020--
Kyoto Protocol:without Canada
and US
Pledge and review process(Copenhagen/
Cancun)
Ultimate Regime:Extension of the Kyoto
core? Or a smoothsequel to thesecond step?
Kyoto Protocolwithout Japan and
Russia
Mutually reinforce, or conflict?
First Step Second Step Ultimate Regime
Negotiated by 2015
On our way
towards 3-4°C
Thanks for your attention!
Stephen NdiboiSDS Consulting Ltd
Email: [email protected]: +254 721955727