prospects for food demand in china_2012
TRANSCRIPT
Prospects for Food Demand in China
Zhangyue Zhou, James Cook University Weiming Tian, China Agricultural University
Jimin Wang, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Hongbo Liu, James Cook University
Lijuan Cao, Nanjing Agricultural University
Session: Global Food Markets 2050 ABARES Outlook 2012 Conference
6-7 March 2012, Canberra
Outline of the presentation
1. Food consumption trends in China 2. China’s food import needs by 2020 3. Concluding comments
1. Food consumption trends in China
• Increase in consumer income in the past three decades has led to – a decrease in the consumption of foodgrains
but – an increase in the consumption of foods of
higher value, e.g., animal foods.
Per capita income in China (1980=100)
0
1000
2000
3000
400019
80
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Per
cap
ita in
com
e, ¥
Rural Urban
Per capita consumption of foodgrains
Per capita consumption of foodgrains in China
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1978 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1982 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Rural Urban
Per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
kg
Foodgrains
Rural: unprocessed; urban processed.
Per capita consumption of animal products (1)
Meats include pork, beef and mutton.
Per capita consumption of meats and poultry meats in China
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1978 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1982 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Rural Urban
Per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
kg
Meats Poultry meats
Per capita consumption of poultry eggs, aquatic products and dairy products inChina
0
5
10
15
20
25
1978 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1982 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Rural Urban
Per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
kg
Poultry eggs Aquatic products Dairy products
Per capita consumption of animal products (2)
• Rural consumption of animal foods falls significantly behind urban; largely due to low rural income.
• Large consumption gaps also exist between low-income and high-income residents.
Income differences in 2010
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 5th Q
Per
cap
ita in
com
e, ¥
Rural Urban
Q = quintile
Per capita consumption of pork by income group
Per capita consumption of pork in China
0
5
10
15
20
25
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Rural Urban
Per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
kg
1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 5th Q
SSB data: underestimates, not including AFHC.
Per capita consumption of beef and mutton by income group
Per capita consumption of beef and mutton in China
0
1
2
3
4
5
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Rural Urban
Per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
kg
1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 5th Q
Per capita consumption of beef and mutton by income group in urban China
Per capita consumption of beef and mutton in urban China
0
1
2
3
4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Beef Mutton
Per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
kg
1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 5th Q
Per capita consumption of poultry meats by income group
Per capita consumption of poultry meats in China
0
2
4
6
8
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Rural Urban
Per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
kg
1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 5th Q
Per capita consumption of poultry eggs by income group
Per capita consumption of poultry eggs in China
0
3
6
9
12
15
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Rural Urban
Per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
kg
1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 5th Q
Per capita consumption of dairy products by income group
Per capita consumption of dairy products in China
0
10
20
30
40
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Rural Urban
Per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
kg
1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 5th Q
Per capita consumption of dairy products by income group in urban China
Per capita consumption of dairy products in urban China
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0001020304050607080910 0001020304050607080910 0001020304050607080910
Fresh milk Milk powder Yoghurt
Per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
kg
1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 5th Q
Per capita consumption of aquatic products by income group
Per capita consumption of aquatic products in China
0
3
6
9
12
15
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Rural Urban
Per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
kg
1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 5th Q
Per capita consumption of alcoholic drinks by income group in urban China
Per capita consumption of alcohol drinks in urban China
0
2
4
6
8
0001020304050607080910 0001020304050607080910 0001020304050607080910
Chinese liquor Beer Wine
Per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
kg
1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 5th Q
Per capita consumption of fruits by income group
Per capita consumption of fruits in China
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Rural Urban
Per
cap
ita c
onsu
mpt
ion,
kg
1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q 4th Q 5th Q
• Rural food consumption is about 30 years behind urban.
• There are large gaps in consumption between the rich and poor.
• Per capita consumption of several foods of higher value by top-income rural residents is below, or even significantly below, that by bottom-income urban residents, e.g., beef, mutton, poultry eggs, dairy products, and fruits.
• Further increase in food consumption in China – when rural residents’ income further improves; and – when the income of low-income consumers increases.
• Attracting interests in projecting China’s food consumption for at least three important reasons: – China’s own concerns; – Exporters’ desire to tap into the Chinese market; and – Impacts on world food supply and price levels.
2. China’s food import needs by 2020
Projection differences: soybean production, consumption and import needs in 2020
17 15 19
104
88
57
88
73
38
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
USDA FAPRI Chen (2004)
milli
on to
nnes
Soybean
Production Consumption Net Import
USDA and FAPRI projections are subject to annual modifications.
Sources of predictions
• USDA: Agricultural Projections • FAPRI: World Agricultural Outlook • OECD-FAO: Agricultural Outlook • Our own judgments (O.J.)
Wheat
Wheat
114.50 107.80
-6.70
114.31
-1.66
114.64 109.03
-5.62
115.70114.18
-1.52 2.00
112.65
-40
0
40
80
120
160Pr
oduc
tion
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Net
Im
port
Actural (USDA) USDA FAPRI OECD-FAO O.J.
2010 2020
milli
on to
nnes
Milled rice
Milled rice136.00 135.00
-1.00
136.30 135.66
-0.65
125.83 125.86
0.03 0.00
-40
0
40
80
120
160Pr
oduc
tion
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Net
Im
port
Actural (USDA) USDA OECD-FAO O.J.
2010 2020
milli
on to
nnes
Maize
Maize
168.00162.00
-6.00
198.83 210.38
11.55
201.80203.94
2.15
210.31 213.61
3.30 5.00
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Pr
oduc
tion
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
ports
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
ports
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
ports
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
ports
Net
Im
port
Actural (USDA) USDA FAPRI OECD-FAO O.J.
2010 2020
milli
on to
nnes
Barley
Barley
2.40
4.60
2.203.09
6.07
2.99 2.93
5.62
2.692.00
01234567
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
ports
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
ports
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
ports
Net
Im
port
Actural (USDA) USDA FAPRI O.J.
2010 2020
milli
on to
nnes
Soybean
14.40
68.85 54.45
16.65
104.42 87.77
15.00
88.08 73.09 70.00
0
20
40
60
80
100
120 Pr
oduc
tion
Cons
umpt
ion
Net
Impo
rts
Prod
uctio
n
Cons
umpt
ion
Net
Impo
rts
Prod
uctio
n
Cons
umpt
ion
Net
Impo
rts
Net
Impo
rt
Actural (USDA) USDA FAPRI O.J.
2010 2020
milli
on to
nnes
Soybean
Sugar
Sugar
17.89
23.07
5.193.00
0
5
10
15
20
25
Production Consumption Net Imports Net Import
OECD-FAO O.J.
2020
milli
on to
nnes
Pork
Pork
50.00 50.05
0.05
61.39 61.40
0.01
65.78 66.24
0.46
61.48 61.20
-0.28 1.00
-20
0
20
40
60
80P
rodu
ctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Pro
duct
ion
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Pro
duct
ion
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Pro
duct
ion
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Net
Im
port
Actural (USDA) USDA FAPRI OECD-FAO O.J.
2010 2020
mill
ion
tonn
es
Beef
Beef
5.55 5.53
-0.02
6.56 6.54
-0.02
7.08 7.36
0.29
7.18 7.18
0.000.50
-2
0
2
4
6
8Pr
oduc
tion
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Net
Im
port
Actural (USDA) USDA FAPRI OECD-FAO O.J.
2010 2020
milli
on to
nnes
Mutton
4.80 4.88
0.08 0.300
1
2
3
4
5
6
Production Consumption Net Imports Net Import
OECD-FAO O.J.
2020
milli
on to
nnes
Mutton
Poultry
Poultry
12.56 12.53
-0.03
16.47 16.33
-0.14
20.85 20.92
0.07 0.50
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25Pr
oduc
tion
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Prod
uctio
n
Con
sum
ptio
n
Net
Im
port
s
Net
Im
port
Actural (USDA) USDA OECD-FAO O.J.
2010 2020
mill
ion
tonn
es
Dairy products
Dairy products: milk; measured in weight other than litre in China.
Imports: milk-equivalent dairy products, chiefly milk powder and whey.
Dairy products47.29 47.45
0.16
59.06 56.97
-2.09
2.00
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Pr
oduc
tion
Cons
umpt
ion
Net
Impo
rts
Prod
uctio
n
Cons
umpt
ion
Net
Impo
rts
Net
Impo
rt
FAPRI OECD-FAO O.J.
2020
milli
on to
nnes
Trade position of other products by 2020
Commodity Trade potential
Rapeseed Net import, around 2 mt
Vegetables Net export, 9-12 mt
Fruits Net export, 2-5 mt
Aquatic products Net import, around 2 mt
Eggs Largely self-sufficient
• In 2020, China’s net imports of foods are unlikely very large.
• China’s 2020 net imports will be critically affected by grain production subsidy.
• In the longer term, China’s food import needs can be enormous, depending on the rates of income growth, urbanisation, and agricultural resource depletion, and the size of grain production subsidy.
3. Concluding comments
• SSB statistics: underestimates, missing away-from-home consumption
• Food consumption growth potential: gap between rural and urban and the rich and poor
• Net imports: relatively small in the near future; can be large in the longer term.
Thank you!
Drivers behind the trends
• Rising disposable income • Rapid urbanisation • Changing life style • Availability of new cooking methods • Changes in tastes and preferences • Better organisation of food production and
marketing • Changes in population structure.
Proportion of away from home consumption of animal meats in China
TotalQuantity
(kg)% of total
Quantity (kg)
% of total
Pork 23.07 76 7.28 24 30.35Beef 4.13 67 2.01 33 6.14Lamb 2.43 70 1.05 30 3.48Chicken 9.04 72 3.43 28 12.47Other poultry 1.84 42 2.50 58 4.33
At home AwayAnnual Consumption
Per Capita Annual Consumption of Animal Products in China according to Different Sources
SSB (2010) Chen, Wang (2010) FAO (2007)
Rural (kg)
Urban (kg)
Average a
(kg) Rural (kg)
Urban (kg)
Average (kg) Average
(kg) Meat total 20.01 34.72 27.36 50.29 61.93 56.77 51.76 Of which: Pork 14.40 20.73 17.56 29.23 31.19 30.35 32.58 Beef 0.63 2.53 1.58 4.33 7.60 6.14 4.61 Lamb and mutton 0.80 1.25 1.02 2.15 4.56 3.48 2.83 Poultry 4.17 10.21 7.19 14.58 18.58 16.8 11.72 Poultry eggs 5.12 10.00 7.56 - - - 18.95 Aquatic products 5.15 14.30 b 9.72 - - - 35.56 Milk and dairy products 3.55 18.10 10.82 - - - 30.39
Per capita annual consumption expenditure in China (1978-2010)
1978
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1978
2000
2010
Food total 79 183 344 768 821 1162 1801 67.7 49.2 41Non‑ food total 37 134 241 542 850 1393 2581 32.3 50.8 59Total cons. Exp. 116 317 585 1310 1670 2555 4382 100 100 100
Food total 311 673 694 1766 1958 2914 4805 57.5 39.2 35.7Non‑ food total 230 590 586 1772 3040 5028 8667 42.5 60.8 64.3Total cons. Exp. 541 1263 1280 3538 4998 7943 13471 100 100 100
Item
Value (Yuan) Share (%)
Rural
Urban
Agricultural subsidies in China
Grains Seeds Machine Other Total2002 0.1 0.12003 0.3 0.32004 11.6 2.9 0.1 0.0 14.52005 13.2 3.7 0.3 0.0 17.42006 14.2 4.2 0.6 12.5 31.52007 15.1 6.7 2.0 27.6 51.32008 15.1 12.1 4.0 71.6 103.02009 15.1 23.8 13.0 75.6 127.52010 15.1 20.4 14.5 83.5 133.52011 15.1 0.0 17.5 0.0 140.6