Abhishek Nilugal

VIII Sem, EEE, NIE, Mysore

Solar Energy Prospects and Challenges

Why Solar?

0.236.44

93.34

World Coal Consumption by sector

CommercialIndustrialElectric Power Sector

18.91

13

30.36

3.42

34.39

World Natural Gas Consumption by Sector

Residential

Commercial

Electric Power Sector

Transportation

Industrial

70.65

24.15

0.722.891.6

World Petroleum Consumption by Sector

Transportation

Industrial sector

Electric Power Sector

Residential

Commercial

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration

● Power sector: 41.47% of the total fossil fuel consumption in the world.

● 16 billion metric tonnes of CO2 pumped into atmosphere every year!

● Global temperature to rise by 3.6 degree by 2040 with emission rise of 20%.

● Power Sector must be decarbonized upto 25% to saturate the rise to 2 degree centigrade.

● Fossil fuels account for 61% of the electric power generated in world.

● Decarbinsation of power sector upto 25% - Increase in use of Renewable Energy Sources from 13% to 38% by 2040.

● Solar Energy is one of the cleanest sources of energy.

● Harnessing 5% gives 3000 Trillion kWh – 150 times existing demand of 20 Trillion kWh

● Solar Panel costs are now 154 times cheaper than they were in 1970!

38.74

0.7527.41

0.28

19.47

6.32

13.19

Power Generation with various fuels

Coal

Petroleum

Natural Gas

Other Gases

Nuclear Electric Power

Hydroelectric Pumped Storage

Renewable Energy

Why Solar?

47.93

11.923.08

3.39

33.68

Renewable Energy Sources

Percentage used for power generation

Hydro

Biomass

Geothermal

Solar/PV

Wind

Clean Disruption

“By 2030, the industrial age of energy and transportation will be over, and will be swept away completely by exponentially improving technologies such as solar, electric vehicles and self-driving cars”

- Tony SebaStanford University

Facts and Projections as laid down by Tony Seba in his book “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation”

● Since 2000, the oil Industry's investments have risen threefold by 180%, translating into a global oil supply increase of just 14%.

● The production costs of solar photovoltaic panels fall by 22% with doubling in infrastructure.

● Globally installed capacity of solar PV grown from 1.4 GW in the year 2000 to 141 GW at the end of 2013: a compound annual growth rate of 43%.

● Solar panel costs are now 154 times cheaper than they were in 1970.

● Solar has improved its cost basis by 5,355 times relative to oil since 1970!

● Globally installed solar capacity will reach 56.7 terrawatts in the next 15 years.

● Should solar continue its current trajectory, the energy infrastructure will be 100% solar by 2030

58%18%

12%

2%1%9%

Sources of Power Generation in India (2013)

CoalHydroRESNuclearDieselGas

Power Source Installed Capacity

Thermal 1,30,221 MW

Hydro 39,491 MW

RES 27,542 MW

Gas 20,110 MW

Nuclear 4,780 MW

Diesel 1202 MW

Total 2,23,344 MW

Power Generation in India

● India - Fourth largest primary power consumer in the world.

● Installed power generating capacity - 2,23,344 MW.

● 70% of total coal consumption is by Power Sector.

● India is projected to overshoot USA to second place in terms of coal consumption by 2020. [3]

China USA Russia India Japan Africa Germany Canada Brazil South Korea0

20

40

60

80

100

120 105.8895.06

31.5223.92 20.31 17.34 13.47 13.35 12.1 11.52

Total Primary Power Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)

1961 1966 1969 1974 1979 1980 1985 1990 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 20130

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Per Capita Consumtion (kWh) gdp growth rate (%)

Per

capi

ta c

onsu

mpt

ion

in k

Wh

%GD

P gr

owth

rat

e

● Per capita consumption growth - 45.9 kWh in 1961 to 917.2 kWh in 2013! ● GDP growth rate of 5.02% as seen in 2013 [4]. ● IMF estimates the growth to rise to 6.72% by 2019 [5]. ● IEA projects India and China to have lion's share of Asia's energy demand growth through 2035 [3].

Per Capita Consumption in kWh

Potential of solar energy in India

Image Courtesy: Solar Energy Centre, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Government of India

● Located in Equatorial belt.

● Has 300-330 sunny days a year, which is equivalent to 5000 Trillion kWh.

● Average solar incidence stands at a robust 4-7 kWh/sq.meter/day.

● The annual global radiation varies from 1600 to 2200 kWh/squared meter

● JNNSM – 20 GW by 2022

● Upgraded to 100 GW by 2022

● Great Entrepresneurial opportunities

● 5th position in terms of Renewable Energy Country Attrativeness Index as published by Ernst and Young in March 2015[6].

Potential of solar energy in India

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Coal Imports from 2000-2012

Year

Met

ric

Tonn

es

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Oil Imports from 2000-2010

Year

Thou

sand

Bar

rels

per

day

● Increase in demand to due to increased per-capita consumption.

● Much of the fuel is imported: Greater geo-political risk.

● Harnessing Solar Energy reduces dependancy and increases energy security.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Gas Imports from 2004-2012

Dry Natural Gas Liquified Natural Gas

Year

Billi

on C

ubic

Fee

t

Challenges

Technical:Efficiency:

Crystalline Silicon PV Cell (c-Si) Thin Film PV cell Concentrating PV cell

● Constitutes 85% of market.

● Cut from single crystal Silicon Ingots.

● Processed to create field via pn junction.

● Positive and negative contacts added to convert into PV cell.

● Efficiency: 14%-16%

● 100 times thinner than c-Si.

● Very flexible in nature.

● Made by depositing PV material on substrate such as glass, plastic or metal.

● Efficiency:

● CdTe: 9%-12%

● a-Si (Amorphous): 6%-9%

● CIGS: 8%-14%

● They use mirrors or lenses to concentrate sunlight onto highly efficient, multi junction PV cell.

● Capable of much higher efficiency since each junction is designed to absorb different frequency in the spectrum.

● Efficiency: Upto 43.5%

Challenges

Technical:Power Grid Integration:

Solar: Unpredictable source giving rise to variability.

Three important challenges:

1. Non-Controllable Variability

2. Partial Unpredictability

3. Location Dependancy

Non-Controllable Variability:

● Output of the plant is variable.

● Fluctuation in Voltage and Frequency from seconds to minutes.

● AGC, Spinning reserve, AVRs and FACTS to compensate for small varations.

● Increased penetration = Large variations

● Integration over large area reduces variability

Partial Unpredictability:

● Inability to predict with exactness whether or not sun will be available for energy production.

● Process of unit commitment and calculation of reserves becomes more complex.

● Advanced unit commitment methods must be adopted.

Challenges

Technical:Power Grid Integration:

Solar: Unpredictable source giving rise to variability.

Three important challenges:

1. Non-Controllable Variability

2. Partial Unpredictability

3. Location Dependancy

Location Dependancy:

● Remotely located solar resources.

● Need to build sufficient T&D infrastructure.

● Influenced by regional politics making the development of transmission for Renewable Energy complex.

● Vision of micro-grid for distributed generation.

Solutions for integrating large-capacity RE:

● Grid friendly RE generation: Prioritise reliability and stability over Maximum Power Generation.

● Improved Flexibility in conventional generation

● Transmission expansion: Geographic diversity can be exploited to reduce variability.

Challenges

Technical:Storage:

● Unpredictable nature of energy source.

● Variable power output.

● Need to convert grid to storage intensive.

● Two Challenges to be tackled:● Increase storage capacity● Reduce Storage expense

● Battery storage technology can provide solution upto 50GWh.● Pumped Hydro Stations: Upto 50 Gwh; limited by terrains● To achieve grid parity, cost of generation and storage must be

comparable to conventional sources.● Conventional battery storage is very expensive and therefore

not economical.

Some of the existing storage technologies are:● Pumped Hydro● Compressed air● Flywheels● Lead acid batteries● Lithium-ion batteries● Capacitors● SMES● Flow batteries

Challenges

Technical: Storage technologies cost comparison: [8]

Technology Maturity Cost ($/kWh) Efficiency Response time

Pumped Hydro Mature 138-338 80-82% Seconds to Minutes

Compressed Air (Underground) Demo to Mature 60-150 60-70% Seconds to Minutes

Compressed Air (Above ground)

Demo to Deploy 390-430 60-70% Seconds to Minutes

Flywheels Demo to Mature 7800-8800 85-87% Instantaneous

Lead Acid Batteries Demo to Mature 350-3800 75-90% Milliseconds

Lithium-ion-batteries Demo to Mature 900-6200 87-94% Milliseconds

Flow Batteries (Vanadium Redox)

Develop to Demo 620-830 65-75% Milliseconds

Flow Batteries (Zinc Bromide)

Demo to Deploy 290-1350 60-65% Milliseconds

Sodium Sulfur Demo to Deploy 445-555 75% Milliseconds

Power to Gas Demo - 30-45% 10 minutes

Capacitors Develop to Demo - 90-94% Milliseconds

SMES Develop to Demo - 95% Instantaneous

Challenges

Economic:

● LCOE sums up all the challenges.

● LCOE of Solar far above the conventional sources.

● Need to improve efficiency and storage technology.

● Subsidies by Government to ease installation cost.

● Favourable Policies.

LCOE=Total LifeCycleCost

Total Lifetime Energy Production

(Levelized Cost of Energy)

$310/MWh$210/MWh

$90/MWh

National Action Plan on Climate Change

Launched on 30th June 2008. Has 8 missions

1. National Solar Mission

2. National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency

3. National Mission on Sustainable Habitat

4. National Water Mission

5. National Mission for sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem

6. National Mission for a “Green India”

7. National Mission for sustainable agriculture

8. National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate change

Aim of National Solar Mission:

a) Deployment of commercial and near commercial solar technologies.

b) Establishing a solar research facility.

c) Realizing integrated private sector manufacturing capacity for solar material, equipment, cells and modules.

d) Networking of Indian research efforts with international initiatives.

e) Providing funding support for the activities foreseen under (a) to (d).

Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission

The mission adopted a 3-phase approach:● Phase 1: 11th Plan and 1st year of 12th plan (2010-2013)● Phase 2: Remaining 4 years of 12th plan (2013-2017)● Phase 3: 13th Plan (2017-2022)

# Segment Target for Phase 1Cumulative target for

Phase 2Cumulative target

for phase 3

1Utility Grid Power including rooftop

1100 MW 10,000 MW 20,000 MW

2 Off Grid Solar Applications 200 MW 1000 MW 2000 MW

3 Solar Collectors 7 million sq. mt 15 million sq. mt 20 million sq. mt

JNNSM Capacity Addition Target

Phase I was divided into two Batches:● In Batch-1, capacity addition of 150 MW of grid connected Solar PV plants and 500 MW of solar thermal

plants was envisaged.● In Batch-II, The remaining targeted capacity of 350 MW was awarded.

Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission

Status of Phase-1 of JNNSM

Source: Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, Phase-II Policy Document, MNRE

Segment Target Capacity Actual Capacity

Grid Based (MW) 1100 465.5

Off-Grid (MW) 200 92

Total 1300 557.7

● Limited Success.

● 43% of capacity envisaged got commissioned.

● Solar PV was established as preferred model in India contrary to the policy.

Solar Policies

RPO (Renewable Purchase Obligation) : Mechanism by which the State Electricity Regulatory Commissions are obliged to purchase a certain percentage of power from RES.

● A number of State Solar Policies announced in addition to JNNSM.

● Gujarat: Announced Solar policy in 2009, ahead of JNNSM.

● 1000 MW during the first Phase of JNNSM

● 5000 proposal tuning to Rs. 90 billion.

● 824 MW installed as on 9th March 2013 accounting for 57.2% of installed capacity in India.

● Much of the success credited to Solar Parks.

● Revised solar policy of Karnataka launched in 2014.

● Addition of 2000 MW by 2022 in phased manner: 1600 MW - Grid connected, 400 MW – Rooftop.

● Surplus energy injected paid by the ESCOMs at tariff determined by KERC.

● Encouragement for farmers to adopt Solar Powered Irrigation Pump sets.

Summary

● Need for shift towards Green Energy.

● Solar energy – Posseses enough potential to meet entire energy needs.

● Technical Challenges: Efficiency, Power Grid Integration, Storage.

● Economic Challenges: LCOE much higher than other sources, need for subsidies to reach grid parity.

● JNNSM: 20 GW by 2022

● Solar Policy: Gujarat sets benchmark with its policy aiming 1000 MW in first phase.

● Karnataka to establish 2000 MW by 2022.

References

[1] – World Energy Outlook 2014 Factsheet, International Energy Agency.[2] – Solar Energy Utilization, G. D. Rai, Khanna Publishers.[3] – World Energy Outlook 2014, International Energy Agency.[4] – GDP growth (Annual %), World Bank.[5] – International Monetary Fund: Data and Statistics.[6] – Renewable Energy Countey Attractive Index, Issue 43, March 2015, Ernst and Young.[7] – The History of Solar, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U. S. Department of Energy.[8] – Energy Storage, Opportunities and challenges, A west cost perspective white paper, ECOFYS[9] - Behives or Elephants? How should India drive its solar transformation?. Bridge to India, TATA Solar Power. Septermber 2014[10] - Load Generation Balance Report 2014-15. Government of India, Ministry of Power, Central Electrical Authority.[11] - India Solar Opportunit, Bridge to India[12] - Utilities Sector India. EMIS[13] - Energy Statistics 2013. National Statistical Organisation, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India[14] - Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI). Ernst and Yong. Issue 40, February 2014[15] - Executive Summary: Power Sector, Government of India, Ministry of Power Central Electricity Authority, New Delhi.[16] - Levelized Cost of Electricity: Renewable Energy Technologies, Study, November 2013. Fraunhofer Institue for Solar Energy Systems.[17] - Grid Integration of large-capacity Renewable Energy Sources and use of large-capacity Electrical Energy Storage. White paper. IEC[18] - Grid Solar Success hinges on Policy Implementation. Revati Kasture, Saurabh Bhalerao, Piyush Nimgaonka, Darshan Dodhia. Solar Power[19] - Growth of Electricity Sector in India from 1947-2013. Government of india, Central Electricity Authority, Ministry of Power, New Delhi[20] - India Solar Handbook. June 2014. Bridge to india[21] - India: Towards Energy Independence 2030. January 2014. McKinsey & Company[22] - Integrating Variable Renewable Energy: Challenges and Solutions. L. Bird, M. Milligan, and D. Lew, National Renewable Energy Laboratory.[23] - Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission: Phase-II Policy Document, Ministry of New and Renwable Energy, Government of India.

References

[23] - Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission: Phase-II Policy Document, Ministry of New and Renwable Energy, Government of India.[24] - National Action Plan on Climate Change, Government of India, Prime Minister's council on climate change.[25] - McKinsey on Electric Power and Natural Gas. November 1, 2008[26] - The Karnataka Solar Policy 2014-2021, Government of Karnataka[27] - Solar Power Policy, 2009. Energy and Petrochemicals Department, Government of Gujarat

Thank You!