prospects - a transparent energy and emissions tracking tool for developing countries - cop 23

11/16/2017 www.newclimate.org 1

COP23 Bonn, 10-11-2017, EU Pavilion, 16:45-

18:15

Beyond Philanthropy

PROSPECTS—A transparent energy and

emissions tracking tool for developing countries

Sebastian Sterl

NewClimate Institute

Purpose

PROSPECTS (Policy-Related Overall

and Sectoral Projections of Emission

Curves and Time Series) is a tool for

emissions calculation and tracking

Idea of having a simplified version of CTI tools (“spin-off”) applicable to

countries for which CTI approach is too complicated

Purpose is twofold:

– Bottom-up estimations of historical sectoral emissions

– Calculation of future pathways of sectoral emissions

Rationale

– Fast rollout to any country thanks to low data needs

– Flexible policy scenarios to see effect of indicator change


Overview

• Overall functional design

• Demonstrations

• Way forward


Overall functional design


Historical data

Electricity / heat Buildings Cement Etc...

(supply side)

Indicator projections

(demand side)

Country overview

Data validation

(historical)

(future)

(raw data)

User input

Automatic

calculations

Legend

Energy demand time series

• Total electricity demand by sector

• Total direct energy demand by sector

• Total final energy demand by sector

• Total primary demand by fuel

Emissions time series

• By sector

• By sector with power allocated to end-use sectors

• By type (energy-related CO2, other CO2, non-CO2)

Sectoral split

11/16/2017 www. newclimate.org 5

Supply side

1) Electricity supply

2) Heat supply

Demand side

1) Buildings (residential / commercial)

2) Cement industry

3) Steel industry

4) Other industry (light / heavy)

5) Transport (passenger / freight)

6) Agriculture (energy)

Non-energy related

1) Oil & gas (fugitive, flaring)

2) Waste

3) Agriculture (non-CO2)

4) (LULUCF)

The power of PROSPECTS

Optimal balance between accuracy and simplicity

• Distilled list of metrics that together account for ~100% of a country’s emissions

• Separation of data into activity and intensity metrics Activity: country-specific, e.g. steel production, traffic demand, fuel mixes

Intensity: context-specific, e.g. energy intensity of steel, vehicle fuel economy

• Tailored link with existing databases to minimise specific data requirements

• High degree of user flexibility for emission projections through indicator levers;

intuitive list of indicators for future projections; easy to grasp for people who

are not model experts

Bottom line:

To get a good estimate of any country’s emissions, the country-specific data and resource needs can be

straightforwardly limited by appropriate choices of metrics.


Overview


• Demonstrations

• Way forward


Demonstrations

• European Union (Validation exercise)

• South Africa (Litmus test)

• Cement sector in EU, China & Nigeria (Successful

application)

• Analysis of pledges (Potential application)


(1) European Union


Emissions excl. LULUCF

Emissions by sector

Emissions with power broken down to sectors

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Em

issi

on

s (M

tCO

2e/y

r)

Overall emissions (excl. LULUCF)

CTI

UNFCCC

EDGAR

empty4

empty5

PROSPECTS

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Em

issi

on

s (M

tCO

2e/y

r)


CTI

UNFCCC

EDGAR

empty4

empty5

PROSPECTS

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Em

issio

ns (

MtC

O2e

/yr)


CTI

UNFCCC

EDGAR

empty4

empty5

PROSPECTS

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Em

issio

ns (

MtC

O2e

/yr)

Emissions by sect or

Elect rici ty Heat Transport Buildings

Steel Cement Other indust ry Oil & gas

Waste Agricult ure

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Em

issio

ns (

MtC

O2e

/yr)




Waste Agricult ure


“Status quo” scenario “Deep decarbonisation” scenario

60% RE in power by 2030

50% EVs on the road (LDVs) by 2030

90% electrification rate in heating and cooking

in buildings by 2030

Deep renovation rates of 2% by 2030

All other activity / intensity constant

All activity / intensity constant

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

19

90

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92

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94

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issio

ns (

MtC

O2e

/yr)




Waste Agricult ure

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

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Em

issio

ns (

MtC

O2e

/yr)




Waste Agricult ure

(1) European Union – example scenario: emissions

(1) European Union – example scenario: TPED


“Status quo” scenario “Deep decarbonisation” scenario



90% electrification rate in heating and cooking

in buildings by 2030



All activity / intensity constant

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

19

90

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To

tal

pri

mary

en

erg

y d

em

an

d (P

J)

Total demand for fuels

Coal Natural gas Oil

Waste Biofuels Nuclear

Other non-fossil

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

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To

tal

pri

mary

en

erg

y d

em

an

d (P

J)

Total demand for fuels

Coal Natural gas Oil

Waste Biofuels Nuclear

Other non-fossil

(1) European Union – example scenario: TFC


“Deep decarbonisation” scenario –

Electricity demand

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

19

90

19

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Dir

ect

en

erg

y d

em

an

d (P

J)

Direct energy demand

Own use, losses Transport

Buildings Steel

Cement Other indust ry

Oil & gas Waste

Agricult ure

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Eelc

tric

ity

dem

an

d (T

Wh

)

Elect ricity demand


Buildings Steel

Cement Other industry

Oil & gas Waste

Agricult ure

“Deep decarbonisation” scenario –


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Dir

ect en

erg

y d

em

an

d (P

J)



Buildings Steel


Oil & gas Waste

Agricult ure

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Dir

ect en

erg

y d

em

an

d (P

J)



Buildings Steel


Oil & gas Waste

Agricult ure

Increase in

electricity

demand due to

these levers



90% electrification rate in heating and

cooking in buildings by 2030



(2) South Africa


Emissions excl. LULUCF

Emissions by sector

Emissions with power broken down to sectors

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Em

issi

on

s (M

tCO

2e/y

r)


UNFCCC

ZAFNIR 2013

EDGAR

empty4

empty5

PROSPECTS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Em

issi

on

s (M

tCO

2e/y

r)


UNFCCC

ZAFNIR 2013

EDGAR

empty4

empty5

PROSPECTS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Em

issio

ns (

MtC

O2e

/yr)




Waste Agricult ure

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Em

issi

on

s (M

tCO

2e/y

r)


UNFCCC

ZAFNIR 2013

EDGAR

empty4

empty5

PROSPECTS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Em

issi

on

s (M

tCO

2e/y

r)

Emissions by sector

Elect ricit y Heat Transport

Buildings Steel Cement

Other industry Oil & gas Waste

Agricult ure

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Em

issi

on

s (M

tCO

2e/y

r)

Emissions by sector

Elect ricit y Heat Transport

Buildings Steel Cement

Other industry Oil & gas Waste

Agricult ure

(3) Cement sector – case study

14

Sterl, Wong, et al. (2017), Manufacturing a low-carbon

society: How can we reduce emissions from cement and

steel?, Climate Action Tracker (CAT),

http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/Decarb

Series/Memo_Decarb_Industry_Final.pdf

http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/DecarbSeries/Memo_Decarb_Industry_Final.pdf

(4) Achieving the EU NDC: parameter space


Target:

Reduction of 40% by 2030

compared to 1990 levels

Idea:

Reaching the EU NDC through

- Electrifying transport

- Electrifying buildings

- Increasing RE share

Assumptions:

- RE replaces fossil fuels, nuclear

- EV penetration applies to all

motorised road transport (cars,

buses, trucks)

- All demand-side energy

intensities (buildings, industry,

transport, agriculture) show

autonomous improvement of

1%/year

- All other activity/intensity

indicators constant (Values in graph are for 2030; linear development from 2015 assumed)

Overview


• Demonstrations

• Way forward


Future work

Build a shell tool / interface around PROSPECTS for support of

ICAT (Initiative for Climate Action Transparency)

Further validation of methodology through testing on USA case

Design of credible future scenarios based on current policies

Further tests (full inventories + projections) for the following

countries planned:

– Argentina (G20) – Mongolia

– Indonesia (G20) – Georgia (under consideration)

– Turkey (G20) – Kenya (under consideration)

11/16/2017 www.climateactiontracker.org 17

Collaborators and co-authors

NewClimate Institute

Jing Zhang, Markus Hagemann, Hanna Fekete, prof. dr. Niklas Höhne

Ecofys

dr. Yvonne Deng, Karlien Wouters, Tom Berg, prof. dr. Kornelis Blok

Climate Analytics

Fabio Sferra, Jasmin Cantzler, dr. (h.c.) Bill Hare, dr. Michiel Schaeffer

PROSPECTS © 2017 Climate Action Tracker (NewClimate Institute,

Ecofys, Climate Analytics). All rights reserved.

This work was funded by the ClimateWorks Foundation.


prospects - a transparent energy and emissions tracking tool for developing countries - cop 23

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