prospective economic forecasting consultants

PROPOSAL

In Response to Request for Proposals

Prospective Economic Forecasting Consultants

Prepared for:

Legislative Revenue Advisory Committee North Dakota Legislative Management

Submitted by:

IHS Markit (dba as IHS Global Inc.) 15 Inverness Way East Englewood, CO 80112

www.ihsmarkit.com DUNS: 620365023

TIN: 22-2721160 Business Type: Large

November 8, 2019

This proposal or quotation includes data that shall not be disclosed outside the Government and shall not be duplicated, used or disclosed, in whole or in part, for any purpose other than to evaluate this proposal or quotation. If, however, a contract is awarded to this offer or quote as a result of, or in connection with, the submission of these data, the Government shall have the right to duplicate, use, or disclose the data to the extent provided in the resulting contract. This restriction does not limit the Government's right to use information contained in these data if they are obtained from another source without restriction. The data subject to this restriction are contained in all pages of this proposal or quote.

http://www.ihsmarkit.com/

rtallman

Text Box

APPENDIX C


PROPOSAL 2 IHS Global Inc.

CONTACT INFORMATION

JIM DIFFLEY

Executive Director, Economics Consulting

IHS Global Inc. (IHS Markit)

1700 Market Street

Philadelphia, PA 19103

Tel: 339-223-5765

Email: [email protected]

BRENDAN O’NEIL

Executive Director, Economics Consulting


1300 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 800

Washington DC 20036

Tel: 202-481-9239


DUYEN PHAN

Sr. Contract Management Specialist


1300 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 800

Washington DC 20036

Tel: 202-481-9225


mailto:[email protected]





TRANSMITTAL LETTER

November 8, 2019

Allen H. Knudson, Legislative Budget Analyst and Auditor

Adam Mathiak, Senior Fiscal Analyst

Legislative Council

State Capitol

600 East Boulevard Avenue

Bismarck, ND 58505-0360

SUBJECT: Response to RFP for Prospective Economic Forecasting Consultants

Dear Mr. Knudson and Mr. Mathiak:

Thank you for the opportunity to submit a proposal to provide the economic forecasting services

necessary to support North Dakota’s ongoing revenue estimations efforts.

The following proposal includes our understanding of the project and approach to the scope of

work, which is then supported by: a profile of IHS Markit (dba as IHS Global Inc.) (IHS), first

with our experience in economic forecasting, as well as information on the primary individuals

who would provide the North Dakota economic forecasting data; representative samples of

economic forecasting data previously prepared by IHS; a list of relevant project qualifications and

client references; proposed project pricing.

Our proposal will reflect the changes in scope versus the prior engagement but based on the

learnings from the last forecast effort we will also make enhancements to the proposed level of

effort and deliverables for 2020. For example, we will expand the involvement of our Upstream

Oil & Gas team to ensure we are covering Bakken activity in greater detail under different

scenarios. IHS Markit has also significantly increased the size and scope of our Agriculture

Research unit by acquiring Informa Agriculture which will further enhance our understanding of

farm activity in North Dakota. With these enhancements, we believe we are in an even better

position to translate how regional economic activity will shape the North Dakota tax revenue

outlook.

In our engagement for the previous biennium, we provided similar forecast services, culminating

in a final forecast in March 2019. In a review of that forecast, we see that oil prices continued to

rise unexpectedly from March until June, resulting in higher than anticipated tax revenues over

that period. Otherwise, we believe that forecast remains sound. We will, of course, in this

engagement again provide scenario analysis to aid the state in its prudent planning in an uncertain

economic environment.

IHS Markit has a long history of supporting our state government clients with their fiscal and

policy decisions through our award-winning guidance on the state and US economies. IHS Markit

clients’ ability to model different fiscal outcomes is essential to understanding how economic and

policy changes impact the capacity to fund and deliver vital public services. As a strategic partner

to stakeholders for revenue estimating and forecasting at all levels of government, IHS will bring

the rigorous economic foresight and hands-on industry sector insight to help the Legislative



Management set the foundation for its own revenue estimates. IHS aims to meet the requirement

for enhanced economic analysis and support not solely through spreadsheets and tables; rather, a

successful forecasting relationship is also based on the open dialog we have with our clients to

ensure they can deliver on their goals and mission.

Regards,

Brendan O’Neil

Executive Director, IHS Economics Consulting

Tel: 202-481-9239





TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................ 6

PROJECT UNDERSTANDING ................................................................................................................ 6

PROPOSED SCOPE OF WORK ............................................................................................................. 7

Task 1 – General Economic Forecasting Data related to the National Economy ..................................... 7

Task 2– Detailed Economic Forecasting Data Specific to North Dakota’s Economy ................................ 9

Task 3 – Qualitative Analysis of General Economic Conditions and Demographic Trends Related to the National Economy, the Oil Industry, the Regional Economy, and the North Dakota Economy .......... 11

Task 4 – Disclosure of the Limitations of the Organizations Economic Model and the Risks Related to Forecasting Error Associated with the Organization’s Economic Forecasting Data ............................ 11

PROPOSER’S PROFILE ........................................................................................................................ 13

About IHS Markit (dba as IHS Global Inc.) ............................................................................................... 13

About IHS Markit Economics & Country Risk ...................................................................................... 14

QUALIFICATIONS & EXPERIENCE OF PERSONNEL .................................................................... 15

Project Staffing and Resumes of Key Personnel ..................................................................................... 15

Project Management .......................................................................................................................... 15

Key Personnel ...................................................................................................................................... 16

RELEVANT PROJECT QUALIFICATIONS ......................................................................................... 27

OTHER IHS MARKIT PROJECTS IN NORTH DAKOTA .................................................................. 28

REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................... 29

PROPOSED PRICING ............................................................................................................................ 30

PROPOSED TIMELINE .......................................................................................................................... 31

BILLING AND REVENUE ACCRUAL ................................................................................................... 31



INTRODUCTION / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

State and local governments across the nation rely heavily on tax revenues to fund necessary

government services. In order to effectively manage commitments to its citizens, state

governments and entities such as the North Dakota Legislative Management must be able to

credibly project revenues over the current and coming fiscal years with a high degree of accuracy.

We have worked with a number of states, cities and counties across the US to help them forecast

their tax revenues, either indirectly by providing forecasts of economic variables that drive tax

revenues, or by developing models to directly forecast tax revenues. Because of our extensive

experience over the years in working with such states as Connecticut, Illinois, New York,

Pennsylvania, Texas, and Washington among others, to estimate tax revenues, we understand the

importance of producing accurate, defensible tax forecasts, particularly as it relates to the fiscal

budgeting process.

Forecasting state tax revenues has been especially challenging since the start of the Great

Recession, and during the subsequent modest recovery as the normal relationships between levels

of economic activity, and subsequent generation of tax revenues has been altered. Household

incomes and purchasing power, the most significant driver of sales taxable purchases in North

Dakota were devastated like the broader state economy when sectors tied to the petroleum industry

plummeted with the price of crude. In the aftermath of Saudi Arabia’s decision to defend market

share in the oil markets by continuing production (in contrast to OPEC interests), an unsteady labor

market added to the uncertainty for a significant part of the North Dakota tax base, and declines in

business to business purchases also constituted a major, and variable, declining source of taxable

sales. Thankfully, the formerly poor-performing energy-related sectors are finally trending higher

again thanks to oil prices that are well above the early 2016 lows and rig counts that have been

increasing since May 2016. Given the importance of Bakken production to the state economy, an

effective North Dakota forecast model must take into account all of these factors.

In this RFP, the North Dakota Legislative Management seeks assistance in improving the accuracy

of its general economic and revenue projections. IHS Markit (dba IHS Global Inc.) is well-

positioned, by virtue of its expertise and related experience, to provide accurate economic forecasts

to the State.

PROJECT UNDERSTANDING

The North Dakota Legislative Management office seeks the support of a professional services firm

with the capabilities to support the State’s revenue estimating and economic forecasting efforts.

The Legislative Management requires that a consultant either have or develop the economic

modeling framework that can address how the economy impacts its revenue streams. The end-

product required of the State’s consultant will be used for updating the 2019-21 biennium revenue

forecast and developing the 2021-2023 biennium revenue forecast. The information must be

provided in context of both short- and long-term economic behavior (out to 2021 and 2025,

respectively) with forecast expectations of the national economy as well as detailed economic

forecasts specific to North Dakota’s economy. All forecasted values will be provided in terms of

a baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios with probability assignments to each outcome.

And finally, in addition to their quantitative requests, the North Dakota Legislative Management



requires the qualitative assessment of both national and local economic conditions and

demographic trends that are driving these projections.

IHS Markit (dba as IHS Global Inc.) (IHS) has an established track record, most notably with New

York State Senate Finance Committee, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Department of

Revenue and the City of Philadelphia Office of Budget & Program Evaluation, in supporting

similar efforts of other public finance and revenue oriented clients in other cities and states.

PROPOSED SCOPE OF WORK

IHS proposes to utilize our existing US Macroeconomic (Task 1) and Regional (Task 2) modeling

infrastructure to meet the Legislative Management's economic forecasting requirements. The

advantage of having this existing capital to perform the economic forecasting and analysis means

that IHS is immediately ready to begin the more detailed work on behalf of the State tax revenue

models. Having the existing capital in place also enables IHS to minimize the development cost

associated with building new models. These time-tested models have earned us the reputation as

being the most consistently accurate economic forecasting firm in the world (more about IHS

experience with economic forecasting can be found on Page 11).

To forecast the tax revenues for North Dakota (Task 2c), IHS proposes to develop an econometric

model for the total taxes received by the State, as well as the significant sources of those revenues,

including automobile sales, food services, and building materials, which represent approximately

one-third of the sales tax base. Dis-aggregation of the sales tax base components will enable us to

more accurately trace and project the revenue stream given their disparate economic drivers.

For industry-specific forecasts in North Dakota, such as those related to agriculture-related

commodity prices and production values (Task 2d), or oil production (Task 2e), IHS Markit will

also leverage our existing information and intelligence from our IHS Markit Agriculture and IHS

Markit Energy teams, respectively.

Task 1 – General Economic Forecasting Data related to the National Economy

IHS US Macroeconomic model provides our clients with the most comprehensive examination of

the US economy, with a complete short-term (10-year) and long-term (30-year) forecast and

analysis of all sectors of the economy.

Our short-term forecast includes our full monthly ten-year forecast, including alternative scenarios

and risks, analysis of all sectors of the economy, the global context, and access to IHS superior

team of US macro and industry economists. Our long-term forecast provides clients with analysis

and 30-year forecasts on the structure of the US economy in four scenarios: Trend, Cyclical,

Optimistic, and Pessimistic. IHS's 30-year projections cover the standard macro concepts such as

output, inflation, and unemployment, but also the more disaggregate variables, such as production

and employment by industry.



As an econometric dynamic equilibrium growth model the IHS US Macroeconomic model strives

to incorporate the best insights of many theoretical approaches to the business cycle: Keynesian,

New Keynesian, neoclassical, monetarist, and supply-side. In addition, the IHS model embodies

the major properties of the neoclassical growth models developed by Robert Solow. This structure

guarantees that short-run cyclical developments will converge to robust long-run equilibrium.

The conceptual basis of each equation in the IHS model was thoroughly worked out before the

regression analysis was initiated. The list of explanatory variables includes a carefully selected set

of demographic and financial inputs. Each estimated coefficient was then thoroughly tested to be

certain that it meets the tests of modern theory and business practice. This attention to equation

specification and coefficient results has eliminated the “short circuits” that can occur in evaluating

a derivative risk or an alternative policy scenario. Because each equation will stand up to a

thorough inspection, the IHS model is a reliable analytical tool and can be used without excessive

iterations. The model is not a black box: it functions like a personal computer spreadsheet in which

each interactive cell has a carefully computed, theoretically consistent entry and thus performs

logical computations simultaneously.

In growth models, the expansion rate of technical progress, the labor force, and the capital stock

determine the productive potential of an economy. Both technical progress and the capital stock are

governed by investment, which in turn must be in balance with post-tax capital costs, available

savings, and the capacity requirements of current spending. As a result, monetary and fiscal policies

will influence both the short- and the long-term characteristics of such an economy through their

impacts on national saving and investment.



Task 2– Detailed Economic Forecasting Data Specific to North Dakota’s Economy

Tasks 2a-2b. Recent trends in the state’s major economic sectors or major industries & key economic assumptions

IHS US Regional model provides clients with economic coverage of all 50 states & DC, all metro

areas & divisions, and all counties. Our US Regional forecasts are all completed in conjunction

with IHS US Economic, Industry, and Country Intelligence groups to allow for a comprehensive,

rigorous look at trends and developments at the global, national and local level. In addition to

superior medium and long-term forecasting, IHS US Regional group provides clients with short-

term analysis of key economic and industry developments in each state and metro we cover to

enable clients to stay well informed of changes in each areas business climate. Our short-term

analysis includes monthly employment forecast updates at the states level along with analysis of

key US data releases and monthly updates of key business trends.

In the IHS Regional Economics system, each area is modelled individually and then linked into a

national system. Thus, our models do not forecast regional growth as simple proportions of US

totals, but focus on internal growth dynamics and differential business cycle response. This

approach is referred to as "top-down bottom-up." It contrasts sharply with pure share (top-down)

models, and models which are not linked to a national macroeconomic model (bottom-up), and

contains the best of both approaches.

Task 2c. Changes in the state’s tax bases

To forecast the tax base for North Dakota, IHS Global Inc. will develop, using best econometric

practices, specific Tax Model equations with economic and demographic forecasts as inputs. All

standard statistical regression test statistics and results will be made available to the client. Model

(equation) selection will be determined on a case-by-case basis for each tax component. The

functional form will generally be logarithmic, or log-difference. Explanatory variables, and their

estimated coefficients, will be consistent with economic theory.

Ideally, a first step would be in collecting monthly tax revenue data (consisting of General Fund,

Transportation Fund, Transportation Infrastructure Bond Fund, and Education Fund), as compiled

by the State. IHS will work to ‘clean’ this dataset by explicitly adjusting for any known anomalies

(such as those due to unusual processing activity), which are unrelated to observable economic

events. The data will be converted to a quarterly frequency. This both smooths some of the

underlying monthly variation, and results in a data base conformable to available economic

variables. On a case-by-case basis we will determine whether seasonal adjustment is appropriate.

Generally, this will depend on the nature of the collection stream, and on the structure of the

explanatory economic variables. IHS will use its own extensive data set of economic variables as

the historical base upon which the explanatory equations will be developed.

The Tax Models, coupled with our forecast of the macroeconomic and North Dakota economy and

buffeted by an overview of economic activity for the US, oil and gas markets, and the regional

economy, will include variables such as wage and salary disbursements, personal income, retail

sales, consumer expenditures by type including motor vehicles, corporate profits, the



unemployment rate, population change, and home prices, will be used to project the tax revenues

of the State over the course of current and future fiscal years.

For the baseline projections, all tax rates are assumed to remain constant over the forecast horizon.

The models will have the capability to simulate the economic and revenue impact of different tax

rates, for sales and other taxes, as well as alternative economic scenarios (optimistic and

pessimistic) for the nation, state, metro, and county.

The direct model results will be in seasonally adjusted quarterly frequency. We will convert them

into monthly, de-seasonalized using Census X-13 procedures so as to allow comparisons of the

results with the state revenue stream. After discussion with the Legislature Management team, we

will develop regular reports of cash flow targets for tracking purposes.

Task 2d. Projected agriculture-related commodity prices and production values

Covering over 1,000 prices and labor rates, IHS Pricing and Purchasing Group, which includes

our Agriculture team, provides clients with the most comprehensive outlook available for prices

and wage rates in North America. Our model focuses on a wide range of commodities across

many sectors: chemicals, construction materials, consumer goods, electrical machinery, energy,

exchange rates, fabricated metal products, labor, non-electrical machinery and equipment, non-

ferrous metals, paper and packaging, steel, services, transportation services, and last but not least:

agricultural products.

The agricultural supply/demand models are linked to other IHS Markit capabilities, including the

US Macroeconomics Forecasting Service. Conceptually, prices are viewed as a function of both

production costs and market activity in which costs are assumed to exert the dominant influence

over prices through time. The P&P price and wage escalation models use a stage-of-processing

approach to examine production costs. This cost analysis is then combined with market analysis

to explain price movements. The models are specific to each commodity, thereby capturing

differences in cost structures and end markets.

IHS agricultural commodity forecasts include grain, livestock, oils/oilseed/meals, dairy, sugar and

sweetener, and biofuels. IHS Markit has significantly expanded our agriculture market analysis

and capability through the acquisition of Informa Agribusiness Intelligence which provides

coverage across the full agriculture value chain, including commodities and food, seed and crop

protection, fertilizers, and policy and regulation.

Task 2e. Projected North Dakota oil production levels IHS Markit’s Energy practice has its roots with Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)

which was founded in 1983 by Pulitzer Prize winning author Dr. Daniel Yergin (The Prize) and

acquired by IHS Energy in 2004. With expertise across the global oil & gas industry, one of the

hallmark research services for this project is the North America Supply Analytics Service which

provides interpretation and insight into the development, critical trends, and key players for every

oil & gas geological play in North America. With this insight, IHS Markit can leverage from the

Energy team’s regularly updated forward-looking analysis of the Bakken play to understand

anticipated exploration acreage as well as granular analyses of drilling activity, production



forecasts and economic and operational benchmarking, to provide the North Dakota Legislative

Management with oil production forecasts for the Bakken play.

Tasks 2f-2g. Projected population changes & Projected trends in employment

This information is included in the IHS US Regional Model as described in Tasks 2a-2b above.

Task 2h. Upside and downside risks to the North Dakota economy

In addition to baseline projections, IHS US Regional Model also includes Optimistic and

Pessimistic scenario estimates for all forecasts.

Task 3 – Qualitative Analysis of General Economic Conditions and Demographic Trends Related to the National Economy, the Oil Industry, the Regional Economy, and the North Dakota Economy

After an initial kick-off meeting to make team introductions and review our understanding of the

project, the IHS project team will hold regularly scheduled meetings with the appropriate members

of the Legislative Management who are interested in the format and content of the final qualitative

(and quantitative) deliverables. A draft report explaining the fundamental national and local

economic conditions and forecasts driving tax revenues will be prepared and provided to the

Legislative Management for review before the final report. The complete and final report is to be

delivered no later than Friday, September 25, 2020; a second updated report due January 15, 2021;

and a third report due Friday, March 19, 2021.

IHS first draft and final reports will be delivered in either Microsoft Word or Adobe PDF format,

based on the Legislative Management's preference, and supporting data will be delivered in

Microsoft Excel spreadsheet format, and presentations will be delivered in Microsoft PowerPoint

format. In addition, IHS Global Inc. will be available to present these findings to the Legislative

Revenue Advisory Committee and the Appropriations Committees of the 66th Legislative

Assembly if desired.

Task 4 – Disclosure of the Limitations of the Organizations Economic Model and the Risks Related to Forecasting Error Associated with the Organization’s Economic Forecasting Data

IHS Markit has produced a regular economic forecast of the North Dakota economy for three

decades. We provide a track record of our forecasts of the state’s employment and income

projections over that time.

Any econometric model will exhibit some degree of forecast error. IHS Markit has five decades

of experience curating widely accepted government and industry data measurements of the macro

and micro economy. But, of course, there are measurement errors and subsequent data revisions

which will result in some forecast errors.

Also, our models of the economy are necessarily simplified approximations of economic activity

and will miss idiosyncratic, unforeseeable, events in the business world which may influence

economic outcomes. IHS Markit uses best practice in constructing models and the corresponding



forward-looking assumption that are used to guide them. We regularly provide alternative forecasts

to reflect alternatives which might be reasonably thought to occur. For instance, at this writing, we

are constructing alternative scenarios dependent upon differing outcomes for the tax reform

legislation in Congress.



PROPOSER’S PROFILE

About IHS Markit (dba as IHS Global Inc.)

IHS Markit is a leading source of information, insight and advisory services in the pivotal areas

that shape today’s business and policy landscape: economics, financial markets, energy, chemicals,

technology, logistics and transportation, healthcare, geopolitical risk, sustainability and supply

chain management. Businesses and governments around the globe rely on the comprehensive

content, expert independent analysis, and flexible delivery methods of IHS Markit to make high

impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and confidence. We combine leading industry

and regional insight with stakeholder input to develop unique strategies and solutions for our

clients. By uniting the world's largest private database of economic and industry information with

unrivaled technical and industry expertise, IHS Markit industry experts and economists create

innovative solutions based on the forces that shape local, regional and global economies.

IHS was founded in 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange

in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS is committed to sustainable, profitable

growth and employs approximately 9,000 people in 34 countries around the world.

In July 2016, IHS Inc. and Markit Ltd. merged to form IHS Markit Ltd. (NASDAQ: INFO), a

world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets

that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information and solutions

to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and

providing deep insights that lead to well-informed decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000

key business and government customers, including 80% of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s

leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable,

profitable growth. The combined company employs more than 14,000 people.

IHS provides services to eight major industry

verticals:

• Aerospace, Defense and Security

• Automobiles

• Chemicals

• Energy

• Financial Markets

• Maritime and Trade

• Product Design

• Technology, Media and Telecommunications

Our Economics and Country Risk (ECR) group cuts

across all the verticals, using their information and capabilities in preparing economic forecasts

and providing comprehensive consulting services. At the same time, ECR economic forecasts are

used by the eight verticals to enhance the information services they provide to clients.

Virtually all of these verticals operate under IHS Global Inc., an independent US subsidiary

headquartered in Englewood, CO. However, consulting services for this engagement will be

provided from our offices in Philadelphia, Boston, and Washington DC.



About IHS Markit Economics & Country Risk

IHS Markit Economics and Country Risk is the market leader in

economic, country risk, and cross-industry analysis and forecasts.

The IHS Economics Consulting group delivers detailed forecasts

and analysis of economic conditions within political, economic,

legal, tax, operational, and security environments worldwide. By

providing in-depth analysis and forecasts down to the local level,

IHS Economics team of over 300 of economists and analysts serve

as valuable extensions to our client organizations’ staff and provide

multinational companies, governments, international institutions,

banks and state-owned enterprises the data and analysis they need

to make high impact business and policy decisions.

A Deep History in Economic Analysis & Forecasting

Through predecessor companies such as Global Insight, DRI, and

WEFA, IHS Markit founded the modern economic forecasting industry over 50 years ago. A leader

in modeling and forecasting, IHS Markit has combined its analytical capabilities with the deep

experience of industry experts to provide unparalleled coverage of global business opportunities

and risks.

Our Experts

Our team of over 300 economists, analysts and consultants serve as valuable extensions to our client

organizations’ staff and as trusted advisors to executive management and policymakers alike. Our

customers engage directly with our experts via email or phone, as well as via regular webcasts and

in-person events, to get a clear and comprehensive understanding of analysis and forecasts.

Consulting Services

We advise on specific issues that affect competitive position, investment strategy, or policy positions

by:

• Investigating global, regional and local economic dynamics

• Identifying the market forces that will shape economic growth

• Providing clear, concise recommendations to help guide opportunity and mitigate risk



QUALIFICATIONS & EXPERIENCE OF PERSONNEL

Project Staffing and Resumes of Key Personnel

Project Management

The IHS team will work with North Dakota Legislative Management to develop a communications

plan that ensures an appropriate level of dialog with the department and the associated stakeholders

on project tasks, yet is also sensitive to our client schedules and requirements for detail. The current

IHS Management and Staffing plan stresses:

• Clarity of roles and responsibilities among the core project team as well as of lines of

communication both between the IHS team and the client - including clearly identified

“primary” and “secondary” points of contacts - and among IHS team members;

• Accountability of key staff over the course of the proposed Period of Performance; and

• Flexibility to respond to feedback and additional input from the client and focus research

to answer specific questions covered by the scope of work over the course of the Period of

Performance.

Our Management Plan includes a Consulting Executive-in-Charge and a Project Manager, and will

be supported by team members across the various IHS offices and disciplines.

• Consulting Executive-in-Charge (EIC): IHS will appoint senior level staff to serve as

the Executive-in-Charge (EIC). In this role, a Managing Director or higher level staff

member will be responsible for securing the necessary resources to enable successful

execution of each project. The Executive-in-Charge will have the authority to augment the

IHS team as required to meet the government’s requirements over the course of the project.

The Executive-in-Charge will also be involved in reviewing the report deliverables as part

of a broader, mandatory IHS quality control effort. The Executive-in-Charge will assist the

Project Manager in engaging colleagues across the entire IHS organization that can provide

the necessary technical or regional expertise to the ongoing research and analysis. Senior

staff within the IHS Consulting Business has extensive access to resources across IHS for

the purpose of identifying and engaging IHS experts on topics relevant to the client

research and analysis efforts.

• Chief Regional Economist: The IHS Chief Regional Economist has overall responsibility

for US Regional Economic Services, including the Regional Core Macroeconomic Service

and the IHS Global Insight Real Estate and Construction Service. The Chief Regional

Economist oversees the monthly economic forecast of the 50 states and over 300

metropolitan areas of the United States. The Chief Regional Economist regularly makes

presentations of these regional economic forecasts and analysis to clients, conferences,

governmental bodies and the press.

• Project Manager: The Project Manager provides oversight and guidance to the Lead

Analyst(s) throughout the Period-of-Performance (PoP), and will serve as a quality control

expert and primary point of contact. The Project Manager will serve as the point person for

communications, project briefings and ensure day-to-day activities and interactions are

executed smoothly and consistently.



• Lead Analyst(s): The Lead Analyst will be the secondary point of contact responsible for

performing research and analysis in support of the project (often task specific), including

working with the Project Manager to synthesize analytical outputs of the research effort.

• Business Analyst(s): Business Analysts will work with the Project Manager and the Lead

Analyst to conduct research and analysis in support of the requirement, and will contribute

to the final and interim reports.

Key Personnel

Presented on the following pages are biographies for key personnel who will be participating in

this project.



BRENDAN O’NEIL Executive Director, IHS Economics Consulting

Project Title: Executive-in-Charge

Area of Expertise: Education: • Project Management

• Economic Development

• Agriculture

• Construction

• Energy

• Public & Private Sector Business Development

• Graduate studies at Suffolk University

• BA, Political Science, Syracuse University

Brendan O’Neil will be responsible for contract negotiation and administration and will serve as

Executive-in-Charge for this effort. These responsibilities include warranting adequate project

resources, and ensuring overall “Customer Delight,” IHS Markit’s standard for delivering client

value, satisfaction and overall effectiveness of the project results.

As Managing Director in the IHS Markit Economics Consulting Group, among Mr. O’Neil’s

responsibilities is oversight of the Trade Associations and State & Local Government segments of

the IHS Economics & Country Risk business. In this capacity, he has served as an Executive-in-

Charge (EIC) for over 50 consulting studies that have been performed by ECR’s consulting group

for state and local governments, and trade associations, most of them addressing economic impact

and policy issues. In addition to his sector development efforts, he is responsible for developing

client and strategic partner relationships and executive management of client engagements. Mr.

O’Neil has specialized in assisting clients with their market sizing and forecasting, economic and

policy impact analysis and supply chain cost containment efforts. With over 20 years of experience

in market and policy research, Mr. O’Neil has expanded the firm’s business by engaging clients in

a wide range of industry sectors and through multiple product and capability launches.

Prior to joining IHS Consulting, Mr. O’Neil served in various client-facing roles at Global Insight,

World Markets Research Centre and Forrester Research. Mr. O’Neil’s policy experience stems

from his work in Massachusetts New York state legislatures, and for the Aerospace Industries

Association, and an Equality Index for the National Urban League.



JAMES DIFFLEY Executive Director, IHS Economics Consulting

Project Title: Chief Regional Economist

Area of Expertise: Education: • Macroeconomic Forecasting

• Tax Analysis

• Economic Impact Analysis

• Revenue Impact Analysis

• Real Estate & Construction

• Public Finance

• PhD training in Economics, State

University of New York at Stony Brook

• MA, Economics, State University of New

York at Stony Brook

• B.A., Mathematics & Economics, State

University of New York at Buffalo

Summary of Qualifications

James Diffley is Executive Director of IHS Economics Consulting Services, with responsibility

for a variety of advisory services and consulting solutions for clients in the public and private

sectors. Mr. Diffley was, from 1998 to 2013, the Chief Economist of IHS Global Insight’s U.S.

Regional Services Group, with overall responsibility for US Regional Services, including the

Regional Core Macroeconomic Service and the IHS Global Insight Real Estate and Construction

Service. He regularly makes presentations of economic forecasts and analysis to clients,

conferences, governmental bodies, and the press. Among the customized consulting projects Mr.

Diffley has been responsible for are state and local tax forecasting, the impact of changing oil

prices on local economies, and the economic impacts of the investment and operations of various

industries.

In 2013, Mr. Diffley was elected to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business

Economics.

Mr. Diffley came to IHS Global Insight through WEFA, Inc. Prior to joining WEFA, Mr. Diffley

was supervising tax analyst with the New Jersey Division of Taxation's Office of Tax Analysis

from 1988 to 1996, where he was responsible for developing the state economic forecast for the

state executive budget and for business tax revenue forecasting. From 1982 to 1987, he was on the

economics faculty at Adelphi University in New York.

Selected Project Experience

Suffolk County, New York. Provided independent sales tax revenue estimates, updated quarterly,

as part of the annual state budget setting process.

City of Philadelphia Department of Revenue. IHS built an econometric model of each of the

components of City tax collections based on local and national economic conditions. The model

was then used to forecast City revenues for the upcoming 5-year period. Presentations and

testimony have been provided since 2010.

New York State Revenue Forecasts. Provided modeling, forecast, and analysis to the New York

State Senate – for example, NYSTREAM model re-estimation and update; NYSTREAM forecast

of revenue sources; testimony at Legislative Forecast Conference.

New York City MTA Revenue Forecasts. Provided modeling, forecast, and analysis to the New

York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority.

Rhode Island Income Tax Revenue Forecasting. Provided a 5 fiscal year forecast of state

taxable capital gains realizations with alternative scenario results. IHS Markit built a tax model

and incorporated its national and state economic forecast.



Pennsylvania Department of Revenue. Continuously provided independent revenue estimates

and expert testimony as part of the annual state budget setting process.

Projects for the U.S. Conference of Mayors. Responsible for generating series of reports entitled

The Role of Metro Areas in the U.S. Economy. In addition, as a part of the U.S. Metro Economies

series, authored special reports on topical issues. Examples include: U.S. Foreclosure Crisis is

Having a Negative Ripple Effect on the Economies of the Nation's Metropolitan Areas, and

Current and Potential Green Jobs in the U.S. Economy.

Cigarette Consumption Forecasts. Provided a forecast of US cigarette consumption for the

Tobacco Settlement Financing Corporation (State of New York), for use in the offering statement

for the Tobacco Settlement Financing Corporation (State of New York) Asset-Backed Revenue.

Also provided cigarette consumption forecasts for Louisiana, California, Rhode Island,

Washington, Niagara TASC, Chautauqua TASC, Kern County.

Series 2010 Financing, Virgin Islands Public Finance Authority. Provided a report containing

an overview of market for VI rum; competitive factors affecting demand, demographic data on

liquor consumption; VI market position, analysis of impact of the expansion of the Cruzan

production facility, and its use to provide Beam Global branded spirits to the US market; and

forecast of all long term rum shipments to the US from the USVI. This material was used in the

prospectus for the bonds issued by the Virgin Island Public Finance Authority.

Technology Association of Oregon. Provided a multi-state comparison and analysis of the

detailed state tax regimes of states competitive to Oregon in the attraction of technology firms. We

identified which aspects of state taxation were most significant to Technology firms and explored

the implications in each state of the specific legislative tax parameters and tax administration of

the state.

Pioneer Institute for Public Policy Research. Published a seven-state comparison of the costs of

doing business for representative corporations in nine industries. The report compiled, for each

industry profile, its costs in each state, Factors considered were wages and benefits, the full range

of taxes, energy costs, key input costs, and rents.

U.S. Regional Services. Responsibilities include management of the Regional Services Practice;

economic forecast and analysis of 50 states and 319 metropolitan areas; fulfillment of consulting

projects; presentations, testimony to clients; and management of client relationships.

Publications/Reports/Presentations/Testimonies

• US Conference of Mayors • National Real Estate Investment Managers

• Builder 100 Conference • Bond buyer Conferences

• Commercial Property News • NY State Association of Counties

• Council of State Governments • National Association of State Budget

Offices

• Legislative Fiscal Officers Association • National Association of Industrial & Office

Property Owners

• National Association of Home Builders • Testimony on Budget & Economic

Matters to State Governments

• Numerous other consulting reports on

economic impacts

• Frequently quoted in national media,

including NY Times, San Francisco

Chronicle, NBC Nightly News, CNNfn



CURTIS SMITH Director, IHS Energy Consulting

Project Title: Lead Analyst

Area of Expertise: Education: • Oil & Gas Supply & Forecasting

• Upstream Oil & Gas Industry

• Project Management

• MS, Geology, Brigham Young University

• BS, Geology, Brigham Young University


Mr. Smith is a Director in the Consulting Division of IHS Energy, with over 20 years of

experience, and is responsible for oil and gas supply and forecasting, as well as other strategic

projects including North American and International basin studies and play analysis, market

studies, mapping and technical analysis, and workflow-based client training. Mr. Smith has been

at IHS Energy for over 15 years and previously worked at Marathon Oil Company and

ConocoPhillips Company, Oil Majors.

While his experience covers a wide range of technical and business-related projects as well as

training and support, his key strength is a knowledge of technical and business data and products

(with a strong focus on IHS data, tools and products) and their use and application in the upstream

oil and gas industry, particularly in the realm of Unconventional Resources. With respect to

unconventional resources he has worked well performance, development cost, the use of

technology and future potential for the majority of important North America unconventional plays.

Recent experience includes managing and delivering consulting projects, utilizing information

from IHS US and Canadian well and production databases with a heavy emphasis on

unconventional plays.



LAURA HAND Associate Director, IHS Economics Consulting

Project Title: Project Manager

Area of Expertise: Education: • Economics & Econometrics

• Tax Revenue Forecasting

• MA, Economics, Syracuse University

• BA, Economics & Math, St. Lawrence University


Laura Hand is an Associate Director in IHS Economics & Country Risk Consulting practice and

has been responsible for managing consulting project support for many key clients, in both the

public and private sectors, since joining IHS Markit (formerly Global Insight) in 2008. Ms. Hand’s

responsibilities in developing, planning, executing, and monitoring successful project solutions

for clients are founded through in-depth modeling and data analysis. With particular experience

in analyzing consumer behavior and trends, Ms. Hand has worked with many of the Fortune 500

companies in the retail and manufacturing sector to help them understand and strategize around

changing market demands and model forecast expectations.

Prior to joining IHS Markit, Ms. Hand worked as an analyst at the Congressional Budget Office

in Washington, DC. In the Tax Analysis Division, Laura was responsible for the excise tax

budgeting process, which included both forecasting excise tax income in the United States as well

as analyzing the excise tax revenue effects of past/proposed legislation for Congress. At the time

of her tenure at CBO, Ms. Hand worked to re-estimate the government’s fuel model (used to

forecast gasoline consumption) to account for the new increased trend in fuel-efficient and hybrid

vehicles, as well as revenue impacts on legislation such as The Highway Reauthorization Tax Act.



YAN JIANG, PhD Associate Director, IHS Economics Consulting

Area of Expertise: Education: • Macroeconomic Modeling

• Macroeconomic Scenario Analysis

• Data Analytics and Forecast Modeling

• Ph.D. in Economics, The Graduate Center,

City University of New York, 2012

• M.A. in Finance, Peking University,

China, 2007

• B.A. in Economics, Peking University,

China, 2004

Yan Jiang is an Associate Director in the Economic and Country Risk Consulting. Dr. Jiang joined

IHS Markit in 2017. Her work during past few months has focused on economic impact analysis

in energy market and state and local tax modeling capability development.

Prior to joining IHS Markit, Dr. Jiang was an econometrician at BNP Paribas Corporate &

Investment Bank in New York, where she built forecasting models for key financial variables and

US national and regional house prices to support the bank’s non-public Comprehensive Capital

Analysis and Review (CCAR) as well as Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing (DEAST). Prior to that,

Dr. Jiang worked at AIG as an economist, where she developed proprietary UK regional house

price forecasting models and supported the group’s US commercial real estate forecasting for

several budget rounds and internal stress tests.

Dr. Jiang has been involved in conducting economic research, developing forecasting models and

conveying findings to diverse audience in the finance industry. She has worked with

Macroeconomic Advisors, Oxford Global Economic, and Moody’s Models. She worked closely

with both AIG and BNP’s model review groups to fulfil regulatory requirement for model

validation. In addition, she has provided scenario forecasts to four rounds of internal stress tests at

AIG and two rounds of non-public CCAR stress tests at BNP.



RYLAND MALTSBARGER Associate Director, IHS US Regional Economic Services


Area of Expertise: Education: • Agricultural Commodity Price Watch

• Agriculture Price & Purchasing

• Global Cotton, Crop Costs, Sugar

• MBA, Information Systems, University of Missouri

• BS, Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri


Ryland Maltsbarger is the Associate Director of IHS Agriculture. He manages the team of

agriculture economists for the global agriculture supply, demand & price forecast out to 2030. The

core focus remains on understanding strategic long-term impacts of feed, food and industrial

demand in concert with supply constraints of global area and production potential. His individual

focus is global sugar, global cotton and crop cost of production.

Selected experience includes:

• Global Forecasting & Scenarios: organized a global modeling team to produce a global

forecast for crops and livestock; reviewed global forecast and scenario output for accuracy and

consistency; presented forecast and scenario results to agricultural input and food supply chain

clients; scenario work included high/low global population scenarios, China GDP hard landing

agriculture impacts scenario, Indian meat preference shirt scenarios.

• Multi-Client Studies: Launched the impacts of weather and climate change on global

agriculture markets for the IHS long-term variability study. The study quantified magnitude of

yield-based impacts on production of agriculture commodities implementing a Monte Carlo

scenario of occurrences to affect global supply and demand for major agriculture producers.

• Global Model Expansion: Expanded and refined international partial equilibrium models for

cotton and sugar to 2050. Redefined long-term production and consumption patterns based on

trade patterns, culture variables, and political policies. Expanded global cotton model to

include 8 extra countries to increase understanding of expanding markets. Implemented non-

linear engle curve dynamics on food consumption patterns.

• Global Sugar Modeling: Developed a non-spatial econometric model of the international sugar

industry including 74 countries/regions for sugarcane, sugar beets and centrifugal sugar. The

model contains 58 trade/policy variables, 76 macroeconomic variables and 14 associated

prices. The model simulated intra-country production decisions as well as global trade

analysis. Sugarcane ethanol production currently included for three countries, including

dynamic Brazilian sugarcane milling substitution of ethanol versus sugar.



STEWART RAMSEY Associate Director, IHS Agricultural Service


Area of Expertise: Education: • Agricultural Economics

• Crops & Biofuels

• Farm Inputs

• Sustainability

• MS, Agricultural Economics, University of Delaware

• BS, Agricultural Engineering, University of Delaware


Mr. Ramsey is an Associate Director at IHS Markit. Mr. Ramsey is an advisor to the U.S. and

World Agriculture Forecast Services as well as directly involved in production of multi-client and

proprietary research.

Mr. Ramsey has spent over 25 years with IHS and its predecessor companies. Much of his analysis

is in the area of crop production and related industries. He has conducted research and analysis in

areas such as ethanol production and bio-fuels, the adoption of new production technology,

changes in the retail farm input supply system, and the cost of producing crops in the United States

and around the world. Some of the current topics of his research are definition and measurement

of "Agricultural Sustainability" through a Life Cycle Inventory approach. Through his work with

the Keystone Center and their Field to Market initiative he has completed LCI projects for wheat,

corn, soybeans, and cotton. Mr. Ramsey has also completed similar work for cotton and other

crops in Brazil. The LCI work has included greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production

and soil management as well as water use and energy intensity of crop production (both imbedded

and direct consumption).

Additionally, Mr. Ramsey is one of the principal authors of IHS Global Inc.’s multi-client study,

The Cost of Producing Crops around the World, the most comprehensive analysis of costs and

returns for worldwide crop production, including the increased demand for biofuel feedstocks

(inputs). Covering more than 80% of global agricultural production for the selected crops, The

Cost of Producing Crops around the World 2007 is the only resource of its kind to provide

historical data and 10-year forecasts.

Prior to joining the company, Mr. Ramsey spent three years designing and conducting proprietary

market research, including the collection of primary data for both qualitative and quantitative

analysis of agriculture markets.



JULIE GRESSLEY MILLER Sr. Consultant, IHS Economics Consulting


Area of Expertise: Education: • Quantitative & Economic Development


• Policy Analysis

• Input-Output Modeling

• MA, International Affairs, The George Washington

University

• BA, with Magna Cum Laude, Economics &

Sociology, University of Massachusetts


Julie Gressley is a Senior Consultant in the group within IHS Economics group that is focused on

economic development projects. She joined IHS in 2013.

In her work on various economic development projects, Ms. Gressley conducted research to

identify the high and low performing sectors in an economy and analyzed the reasons behind a

sector’s performance. This included local content studies – helping economies provide a greater

range of inputs to increase local economic impacts; analyzing economic development incentives

to determine the net economic benefits of offering incentives to attract development, and

workforce analyses to characterize the labor resources and related employment training

organizations that exist in an economy. Ms. Gressley uses IHS detailed and comprehensive

databases, economic forecasts, industry expertise, analytical tools and methodologies to describe

the economic structure and performance of an economy, using techniques such as cluster analysis

and shift-share analysis to identify high-performing sectors, and the reasons behind their

competitiveness. Ms. Gressley has also made significant contributions to IHS work for clients to

analyze demographic and occupational employment trends in the U.S. based on customized

tabulations of public-use micro-data files of the American Community Survey and the Current

Population Survey. In April 2014, Ms. Gressley testified before the Committee on Natural

Resources of the U.S. House of Representatives on trends in minority and female employment in

the oil and gas and petrochemical industries.

Prior to joining IHS, Ms. Gressley was an Economist with the Bureau of Economic Analysis,

Division of International Economics, in Washington, D.C. for over five years. There, she

generated international trade statistics for select services on a monthly and quarterly basis for 50

countries with primary and secondary sources of data for the Balance of Payments Division. She

also conducted research in trade in services in the areas of education, compensation, government

services, and international transportation services. Her research was focused on improving the

quality of estimates through incorporation of new data sources, procedural improvements, and

adherence to international standards.

Ms. Gressley has strong quantitative and qualitative analysis skills, including regression analysis

and decision-making modeling. She is proficient in Microsoft Office – Microsoft Word, Excel,

PowerPoint, Access, as well as HTML. She is a skilled SAS User and has working knowledge of

SQL, SPSS software, Eviews, and Tableau.



KARL KUYKENDALL Principal Economist, IHS US Regional Economic Services


Area of Expertise: Education: • Regional Economic Forecasting


• BA, Economics, Commonwealth Scholar, University

of Massachusetts, Dartmouth


Karl Kuykendall is a Principal Economist in the IHS Markit Economics US Regional Group. He

prepares forecasts and written analysis for several states in the South region, including Alabama,

Florida, Louisiana, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Texas, and the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs)

of those states. Mr. Kuykendall tracks regional economic developments on a daily basis closely

monitoring regional outlooks and emerging trends. He regularly makes presentations of these

regional economic forecasts and analysis to clients, conferences, and the press. Mr. Kuykendall is

involved in the Regional group’s economic impact assessment modeling and also works on

consulting projects, including reports on transportation and international trade, analysis of the

Community Development Block Grant program’s impact on metro area economies, analysis of the

economic impact of tax exempt bonds, and capital spending impact studies for several utilities.



RELEVANT PROJECT QUALIFICATIONS

State of New York – Senate Finance Committee

Address: Office of Fiscal Studies, Legislative Office Building, Albany, NY 12247

Contact: Tom Havel

Phone: (518) 455-2745


Performance Period: ongoing (for over 20 years)

Description of Service Provided:

IHS has been continuously engaged with this client to provide independent revenue estimates for

all state tax revenue streams and expert testimony as part of the annual state budget setting process.

City of Philadelphia Office of Budget and Program Evaluation

Address: City of Philadelphia, MSB 1401 JFK Blvd, Philadelphia, PA 19102

Contact: Anna Adams, Budget Director

Phone: (215) 686-6146


Performance Period: ongoing


The City of Philadelphia Office of Budget and Program Evaluation (OBPE) has retained IHS for

several years to support the City’s planning, budgeting, revenue estimating and economic

forecasting efforts. The IHS analysis supports the Director of Finance in preparation of the City’s

annual operating budget, Five Year Plan, capital program and capital budget. OBPE requires that

a consultant either have or develop the economic modeling framework that can address how

income, housing activity and corporate profits impact the City’s revenue streams, such as the Wage

Tax, Business Income and Receipts Tax, Net Profits Tax, Real Estate Tax, Real Estate Transfer

Tax, Sales Tax, Parking Tax and Amusement Tax. The end-product delivered by IHS is current

fiscal year and 5-year forecasts of the aforementioned taxes, participation in meetings and

presentations that require a detailed explanation of the consultant’s modeling framework,

retrospective analysis of forecasted versus actual revenue, a monthly outlook of the Philadelphia

economy and qualitative assessment of trends and drivers.

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania – Department of Revenue

Address: 1147 Strawberry Square, Harrisburg, PA 17128

Contact: C. Dan Hassell, Revenue Secretary

Phone: (717) 787-4099

Performance Period: ongoing (for over 20 years)


IHS Global Inc. has been continuously engaged with this client to provide independent economic

estimates and expert testimony as part of the annual state budget setting process.

Rhode Island Department of Revenue – Income Tax Revenue Forecasting

Address: One Capitol Hill, Providence, RI 02908

Contact: Paul Dion, PhD, Chief of Revenue Analysis

Phone: 401-574-8943





Performance Period: 2016-present


Client desired a 5 fiscal year forecast of state taxable capital gains realizations with alternative

scenario results. IHS built a tax model and incorporated its national and state economic forecast.

Connecticut Innovations – Tax Increment Financing District Analysis

Address 865 Brook Street, Rocky Hill, CT 06067 Contact: Ms. Karin Lawrence, Senior Vice President, Public and Specialty Finance Phone: 860 258-7814

Performance Period: 2013 through 2016.

Description of Service provided: analyzed two proposed tax increment financing districts (TIFs)

established to pay for site improvements requested by developers of major retail projects. A portion

of the incremental sales tax revenues generated by each project would be used to pay debt service

on general obligations issued by CT to pay for the improvements. We determined the probability

that each project would generate enough tax revenues to pay for the requested improvements.

Required state and local forecasts of sales tax revenues.

OTHER IHS MARKIT PROJECTS IN NORTH DAKOTA

North Dakota Department of Commerce, Tourism Division – Economic Impact of State

Tourism

Address 1600 E Century Ave Ste 2, Bismarck, ND 58503

Contact: Heather LeMoine, Marketing & Research Manager Phone: 800-435-5663

Performance Period: 2008 through 2015

Description of Service provided: IHS Markit conducted a bi-annual analysis on the economic

impact of tourism for the North Dakota Department of Commerce, Tourism Division. These

engagements quantified overall tourism spending within the state, covering business and leisure

travelers as well as domestic and international. The studies also quantified the job creation,

economic value, wages and tax generation that visitors provide to the state. These findings were

highlighted in the industry’s annual report as well as used by the state for informational purposes,

marketing and advocacy efforts. The methodology employed was similar to the UN sanctioned

TSA methodology and combined internal IHS Markit data with third party visitor survey data to

provide a rigorous and comprehensive assessment of the industry.

https://www.bing.com/local?lid=YN543x220063208&id=YN543x220063208&q=Department+of+Commerce&name=Department+of+Commerce&cp=46.8390045166016%7e-100.76636505127&ppois=46.8390045166016_-100.76636505127_Department+of+Commerce&FORM=SNAPST



REFERENCES

State of New York – Senate Finance Committee

Contact: Tom Havel

Phone: (518)455-2745


City of Philadelphia Office of Budget and Program Evaluation

Contact: Anna Adams, Budget Director

Phone: (215) 686-6146


Commonwealth of Pennsylvania – Department of Revenue

Contact: C. Dan Hassell, Revenue Secretary

Phone: (717) 787-4099





PROPOSED PRICING

IHS Markit proposes to undertake this task for a firm fixed price of $68,989.86 for economic forecasting data and three reports due in

September 2020, January 2021, and March 2021. Our proposed budget table is presented below:

RESOURCE HOURS

PRINCIPAL TASK

Brendan O'Neil -

Executive-in-

Charge

Jim Diffley -

Chief

Economist

Laura Hand -

Project

Manager

Karl

Kuykendall -

Lead Analyst

Yan Jiang -

Lead Analyst

Curtis Smith -

Lead Analyst

Ryland

Maltsbarger -

Lead Analyst

Stewart

Ramsey -

Lead Analyst

Julie Gressley

Miller - Lead

Analyst

Business

Analyst TOTAL

Collect Monthly Tax Revenue Data 0 8 4 0 4 4 1 2 8 40 71

Update/Re-estimate Tax Models 0 8 4 0 12 2 1 2 12 40 81

Track Model Estimates 0 8 4 8 8 2 1 2 8 8 49

Prepare Estimates/Reports 2 6 4 8 8 4 1 2 12 4 51

Final Reports & Presentations 2 12 4 0 2 10 1 2 12 4 49

TOTAL HOURS 4 42 20 16 34 22 5 10 52 96 301

COST ESTIMATES

PRINCIPAL TASK 298.38$ 348.01$ 240.60$ 151.13$ 240.60$ 298.38$ 240.60$ 240.60$ 175.92$ 75.57$ TOTAL

Collect Monthly Tax Revenue Data -$ 2,784.08$ 962.40$ -$ 962.40$ 1,193.52$ 240.60$ 481.20$ 1,407.36$ 3,022.80$ 11,054.36$

Develop Tax Models -$ 2,784.08$ 962.40$ -$ 2,887.20$ 1,193.52$ 240.60$ 481.20$ 2,111.04$ 3,022.80$ 13,682.84$

Track Model Estimates -$ 2,784.08$ 962.40$ 1,209.04$ 1,924.80$ 1,193.52$ 240.60$ 481.20$ 1,407.36$ 604.56$ 10,807.56$

Prepare Estimates/Reports 596.76$ 2,088.06$ 962.40$ 1,209.04$ 1,924.80$ 1,193.52$ 240.60$ 481.20$ 2,111.04$ 302.28$ 11,109.70$

Reports & Presentations 596.76$ 4,176.12$ 962.40$ -$ 481.20$ 2,983.80$ 240.60$ 481.20$ 2,111.04$ 302.28$ 12,335.40$

TOTAL LABOR COSTS 1,193.52$ 14,616.42$ 4,812.00$ 2,418.08$ 8,180.40$ 7,757.88$ 1,203.00$ 2,406.00$ 9,147.84$ 7,254.72$ $58,989.86

Other Direct Costs (ODCs)

US Regional State Service 10,000.00$

TOTAL PROPOSED BUDGET: $68,989.86

IHS GLOBAL INC. COST PROPOSAL

PROSPECTIVE ECONOMIC FORECASTING CONSULTANTS



PROPOSED TIMELINE

Assuming the contract starts on January 1, 2020, the project timeline is estimated to be as follows:

BILLING AND REVENUE ACCRUAL

As a publicly traded company, IHS Markit is subject to Sarbanes Oxley requirements and must

disclose our planned revenue accrual schedule associated with this engagement. This is solely an

internal accounting requirement and has no effect on the deliverables, billing, or total price. For

this project, IHS Markit proposes revenue accrual and billing schedule to be the same and in

accordance with the table presented below.

Deliverables Estimated Timing of Deliverables Percentage of Final Pricing Kickoff Meeting January 2020 10%

Submission of Report in

September 2020

September 2020

30%

Submission of Report in

January 2021

January 2021

30%

Submission of Report in March

2021

March 2021

30%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Collect Monthly Tax Revenue Data

Develop Tax Models

Track Model Estimates

Prepare Draft Report

Final Report Submission

2020 2021

prospective economic forecasting consultants

Documents