property markets in mainland china and hong kong nicholas brooke

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Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

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Page 1: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong

Nicholas Brooke

Page 2: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

© 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

Council Member BiographyNicholas Brooke is the Chairman of Professional Property Services Limited in Hong Kong. Professional Property Services is a real estate consultancy providing to clients a selected range of advisory services across the Asia Pacific Region. Mr. Brooke has over 40 years of experience within the property industry, of which the last 25 years has been in the Asia Pacific region. He is a recognised market commentator, particularly in respect of the property markets of Hong Kong, Mainland China and Vietnam and an authority on land administration, land use planning and housing policy matters. Additionally, Mr. Brooke has been involved with the Vietnam property market which he first entered in 1993. Mr. Brooke is currently working with VinaCapital and Vina Land which is a pure estate fund and has over 30 ongoing development projects across Vietnam and is a major investor in the hospitality sector in Vietnam. Mr. Brooke has been involved in many IPO’s, including the partial privatisation of the Mass Transit Railway Corporation, the launch of the Link REIT and the successful listing of a number of Chinese developers in Hong Kong. He is currently involved in several city planning exercises in China, large mixed use projects across the Middle East, and the further development of Vietnam’s first property development fund. Previously, as Deputy Managing Director, Mr. Brooke played a key role in the redevelopment of Swire Properties portfolio in Hong Kong.

Page 3: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

© 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

Topics

► Market drivers overview and regulatory and investment environment

► Markets in the principal cities, the second tier cities and Hong Kong

► Opportunities, challenges and risks going forward

► Forecast for the year ahead

Page 4: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

China’s Real Estate Markets – China’s Real Estate Markets – Drivers, Policies and ControlsDrivers, Policies and Controls

Nicholas BrookeNicholas Brooke, , FRICS FHKISFRICS FHKIS

Chairman, Professional Property ServicesChairman, Professional Property Services

March 2008March 2008

Page 5: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

China Property Market DriversChina Property Market Drivers

Continued strong economic performance and Continued strong economic performance and rising personal incomes rising personal incomes

Overseas investment focus unabatedOverseas investment focus unabated

Continuing demand for all types of real estateContinuing demand for all types of real estate

Good opportunities in many secondary and Good opportunities in many secondary and tertiary citiestertiary cities

Liquidity in end user market and individual Liquidity in end user market and individual investment market (stock market gains, etc)investment market (stock market gains, etc)

Page 6: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Is there a Residential Bubble?Is there a Residential Bubble?

Dependent upon city, location and type of Dependent upon city, location and type of developmentdevelopmentControls on future supply aimed at Controls on future supply aimed at deflating any existing pressure deflating any existing pressure Some over supply in luxury units in cities Some over supply in luxury units in cities such as Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhousuch as Shenzhen, Chengdu, HangzhouMany markets short of quality, modern Many markets short of quality, modern supply and demand still strong e.g. Dalian, supply and demand still strong e.g. Dalian, Nanjing, XianNanjing, Xian

Page 7: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Current investment environmentCurrent investment environment

Principal cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Principal cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen) already Guangzhou and Shenzhen) already subjects of marked price corrections and subjects of marked price corrections and reduced sales volumesreduced sales volumes

Attention being focused on 2Attention being focused on 2ndnd tier cities as tier cities as coming from lower base, greater coming from lower base, greater unsatisfied demand and easier to measure unsatisfied demand and easier to measure market potentialmarket potential

Page 8: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Which are the target cities?Which are the target cities?

Some 14 or so major cities which exclude Some 14 or so major cities which exclude Beijing, Shanghai and GuangzhouBeijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou

Account for 8% of population but over 50% Account for 8% of population but over 50% of importsof imports

Chengdu, Wuhan and Chongqing seen as Chengdu, Wuhan and Chongqing seen as engines of growth for next decade – 50 engines of growth for next decade – 50 million people – more than Australia and million people – more than Australia and Canada combinedCanada combined

Page 9: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

ChongqingChongqing

Page 10: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

The Major Targets – The Major Targets – Where are they?Where are they?

HarbinHarbin

DalianDalian

QingdaoQingdao

TianjinTianjin

XianXian

WuhanWuhan

NingboNingbo

ChongqingChongqing

KunmingKunming

ZhuhaiZhuhai

XiamenXiamen

ChengduChengdu

HangzhouHangzhou

Page 11: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

ChengduChengdu

Page 12: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Key DriversKey Drivers

Leadership – mayor who will champion the Leadership – mayor who will champion the city and its core competenciescity and its core competenciesEmergence of vibrant business community Emergence of vibrant business community and resilient middle classand resilient middle classLower cost base – land, labour and energyLower cost base – land, labour and energyLess saturated markets – less and Less saturated markets – less and identifiable competitionidentifiable competitionCommitment to hard and soft Commitment to hard and soft infrastructure provisioninfrastructure provision

Page 13: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Major PlusesMajor Pluses

Projects can be delivered more quickly as Projects can be delivered more quickly as less complex bureaucracyless complex bureaucracyAbility and wish to differentiate and create Ability and wish to differentiate and create distinct identitydistinct identityMoved away from the large, the iconic and Moved away from the large, the iconic and the exotic the exotic Diversifying into service sectorDiversifying into service sectorKeen to promote improved environmental Keen to promote improved environmental standardsstandards

Page 14: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

NingboNingbo

Page 15: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

IssuesIssues

Coming off low baseComing off low base

Limited experience of international Limited experience of international investorsinvestors

Inconsistent interpretation of laws and Inconsistent interpretation of laws and regulationsregulations

Depth of local spending powerDepth of local spending power

Page 16: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Future Land SalesFuture Land Sales

New regulations dictate that development land New regulations dictate that development land should be sold by public auction, public listing or should be sold by public auction, public listing or tender; development timeframe specifiedtender; development timeframe specified

Lead to increased land prices due to greater Lead to increased land prices due to greater competition as “closed” deals no longer competition as “closed” deals no longer permittedpermitted

Can still buy into existing projects or acquire Can still buy into existing projects or acquire interest in companies holding existing land interest in companies holding existing land banksbanks

Page 17: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

QingdaoQingdao

Page 18: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Land BanksLand Banks

Companies with existing land banks now a Companies with existing land banks now a focus of interest for M&A activitiesfocus of interest for M&A activitiesParticularly the case if land purchased at Particularly the case if land purchased at historic priceshistoric pricesSome companies being tempted to sell Some companies being tempted to sell land outright as facing difficulties in raising land outright as facing difficulties in raising development loans butdevelopment loans butOthers need to develop to establish Others need to develop to establish credibility and brandingcredibility and branding

Page 19: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Macro Control Policies/MeasuresMacro Control Policies/Measures

Series of measures introduced by Central Series of measures introduced by Central Government to control supply and demand Government to control supply and demand and price levels to ensure sustainable and price levels to ensure sustainable growth in property markets across Chinagrowth in property markets across ChinaIntended to change property market Intended to change property market conditions through controlling land supply conditions through controlling land supply and type/size of residential developmentsand type/size of residential developmentsMeasures implemented by provincial and Measures implemented by provincial and city authorities – some inconsistenciescity authorities – some inconsistencies

Page 20: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Rationale for MeasuresRationale for Measures

Despite strong economic growth/rising incomes, Despite strong economic growth/rising incomes, housing prices in some cities had become housing prices in some cities had become unaffordable to sections of the populationunaffordable to sections of the population

Some 70% of households own their home but Some 70% of households own their home but the other 30% becoming marginalised, the other 30% becoming marginalised, especially given the real reduction in welfare especially given the real reduction in welfare housing provision since 1998 housing provision since 1998

Too many large units being built for Too many large units being built for “investment”, too few for low income families“investment”, too few for low income families

Page 21: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

Summary of Policies/MeasuresSummary of Policies/Measures

May 2003May 2003 Restrictions on loans by banks to Restrictions on loans by banks to “weaker” developers“weaker” developers

Higher mortgage rates for high Higher mortgage rates for high end residential end residential

20042004 Development land only to be Development land only to be transferred via public auction, public transferred via public auction, public listing or tenderlisting or tender

20052005 ““Eight Regulations”Eight Regulations”

Page 22: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

Summary continuedSummary continued

20062006 Six Point Measures/15 Six Point Measures/15 Implementing RegulationsImplementing Regulations

Circular 171Circular 171

20072007 Land Appreciation TaxLand Appreciation Tax

Circular 50 (23 May)Circular 50 (23 May)

Circular 130 (10 July)Circular 130 (10 July)

Tightening of Mortgage Lending Tightening of Mortgage Lending Rate (15 September)Rate (15 September)

Series of Interest Rate Increases Series of Interest Rate Increases

Page 23: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

““Eight Regulations”Eight Regulations”

Local governments responsible for Local governments responsible for stabilising own housing pricesstabilising own housing prices

Low to medium housing should account Low to medium housing should account for majority of unitsfor majority of units

Halt to villa developmentHalt to villa development– Regulations generally had little impact Regulations generally had little impact

although villa development did slow in some although villa development did slow in some cities, hence further controls introduced cities, hence further controls introduced

Page 24: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Six Point Measures and Related Six Point Measures and Related Implementing RegulationsImplementing Regulations

70% of future residential supply in each 70% of future residential supply in each municipality to comprise units of 90sm or less – municipality to comprise units of 90sm or less – to increase supply of affordable unitsto increase supply of affordable units

Leveraging on taxation, credit and land policies Leveraging on taxation, credit and land policies – to suppress speculation– to suppress speculation

Rationalise scale and pace of housing Rationalise scale and pace of housing redevelopment – to reduce “passive” demand redevelopment – to reduce “passive” demand

Increase production of low-rent and affordable Increase production of low-rent and affordable housinghousing

Page 25: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Circular 171Circular 171

Tightening of restrictions on foreign investment Tightening of restrictions on foreign investment in property sector including Central Government in property sector including Central Government project approvalsproject approvalsForeign investors required to set up foreign Foreign investors required to set up foreign investment enterprises to hold their investment investment enterprises to hold their investment properties in Chinaproperties in ChinaRestrictions on payments and sales proceeds Restrictions on payments and sales proceeds transfers and on property investments for transfers and on property investments for branches, rep offices and foreign individualsbranches, rep offices and foreign individuals– Dispensation for overseas Chinese individuals, long Dispensation for overseas Chinese individuals, long

term foreign residentsterm foreign residents

Page 26: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Land Appreciation TaxLand Appreciation Tax

LAT payable since 1994 on gain realised on LAT payable since 1994 on gain realised on transfer of land, buildings and associated transfer of land, buildings and associated structures and on taxable gains derived by structures and on taxable gains derived by companies and individuals from transfer of real companies and individuals from transfer of real propertypropertyCircular 187 on 1 February 2007 mandated Circular 187 on 1 February 2007 mandated collectioncollectionPayable when construction complete and Payable when construction complete and property fully sold or transfer of entire project property fully sold or transfer of entire project during constructionduring constructionRate of 30% - 60% depending on level of gain Rate of 30% - 60% depending on level of gain pro rata to fixed items eligible for deductionpro rata to fixed items eligible for deduction

Page 27: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Circular 50Circular 50

Follow up to Circular 171Follow up to Circular 171Strict control of foreign investment in the Strict control of foreign investment in the high end residential sectorhigh end residential sectorProhibits foreign entities from obtaining a Prohibits foreign entities from obtaining a fixed/guaranteed return under a JV fixed/guaranteed return under a JV agreementagreementReiterates requirement for foreign invested Reiterates requirement for foreign invested enterprises and the securing of project enterprises and the securing of project approvals from Central Governmentapprovals from Central Government

Page 28: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Tightening of Mortgage RatesTightening of Mortgage Rates

Minimum down payment levels now:Minimum down payment levels now:– 20% for unit of 90sm or less20% for unit of 90sm or less– 30% for unit of over 90sm30% for unit of over 90sm– 40% if second home buyer (or investor)40% if second home buyer (or investor)– 50% if commercial premises plus loan limits50% if commercial premises plus loan limits

Mortgage rate for second buyer raised to Mortgage rate for second buyer raised to 1.1% above benchmark rate1.1% above benchmark rateNo loans to developers with self equity of No loans to developers with self equity of less than 35% or without project permitsless than 35% or without project permits

Page 29: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Other Recent MeasuresOther Recent Measures

Circular 130 – first batch of approvals of Circular 130 – first batch of approvals of real estate foreign investment enterprises; real estate foreign investment enterprises; such entities require approval to engage in such entities require approval to engage in foreign currency registration and related foreign currency registration and related capital account settlementscapital account settlements

Benchmark interest rate raised from Benchmark interest rate raised from 7.02% to 7.29% on September 15 to 7.02% to 7.29% on September 15 to 7.83% at the current time7.83% at the current time

Page 31: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Challenges of 2008Challenges of 2008

Foreign investors being held accountable Foreign investors being held accountable for overheatingfor overheating

Difficult to channel funds into China except Difficult to channel funds into China except as equity and even then not easyas equity and even then not easy

Approval requirements favour existing Approval requirements favour existing playersplayers

Beijing likely to police enforcement of Beijing likely to police enforcement of various circularsvarious circulars

Page 33: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Market Sentiment in 2008Market Sentiment in 2008

Cumulative impact of regulatory Cumulative impact of regulatory enforcement likely to biteenforcement likely to biteCity interpretation and selective City interpretation and selective enforcement no longer acceptable to enforcement no longer acceptable to BeijingBeijingCity by city price adjustments in residential City by city price adjustments in residential valuesvaluesCommercial sector largely unaffected and Commercial sector largely unaffected and will follow pattern of supply and demandwill follow pattern of supply and demand

Page 34: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

Thank youThank you

Professional Property Professional Property Services LimitedServices Limited

PPPPSS

Page 35: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

The Hong Kong Property Market:The Hong Kong Property Market:

Steady As She GoesSteady As She Goes

Nicholas BrookeNicholas Brooke, , FRICS FHKISFRICS FHKIS

Chairman, Professional Property Services LtdChairman, Professional Property Services Ltd

March 2008March 2008

Page 36: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

2007 / 2008 Policy Address2007 / 2008 Policy Address

A new direction for Hong KongA new direction for Hong Kong

10 new infrastructure projects10 new infrastructure projects

3 new development areas in New 3 new development areas in New TerritoriesTerritories

Range of heritage initiativesRange of heritage initiatives

Review of building densitiesReview of building densities

Asset management of Government Asset management of Government portfolioportfolio

Page 37: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Influence of GovernmentInfluence of Government

Leasehold land tenure systemLeasehold land tenure system

Principal generator of land supplyPrincipal generator of land supply– Disposals – application list systemDisposals – application list system– Lease modificationsLease modifications– Agencies – URA / MTRC / KCRCAgencies – URA / MTRC / KCRC

Dependence on land revenuesDependence on land revenues

Major owner and continued provider of Major owner and continued provider of social housingsocial housing

Page 38: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Market Overview –Market Overview –ResidentialResidential

Ultimate barometer of Hong Kong’s well Ultimate barometer of Hong Kong’s well beingbeingThree markets within a marketThree markets within a marketPotential issues relating to supply Potential issues relating to supply Major beneficiary of interest rate Major beneficiary of interest rate reductionsreductionsSpeculation is prevalent at the topSpeculation is prevalent at the topEmphasis on life style and quality of life Emphasis on life style and quality of life issuesissues

Page 39: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

33%

49%

11%5% 2%

Total Stock of Private Residential Units by Class in Hong Kong (2007)

Total Stock of Private Residential Units by Class in Hong Kong (2007)

Classification of Residential Units by Class :

Class A - saleable area less than 40m²

Class B - saleable area of 40m² to 69.9m²

Class C - saleable area of 70m² to 99.9m²

Class D - saleable area of 100m² to 159.9m²

Class E - saleable area of 160m² and above

Class B (519,498 units)

Class A (350,455 units)

Class D (54,778 units)

Class C (121,404 units)

Class E (22,763 units)

Sources: Rating and Valuation Department

Page 40: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Supply and Take-Up (units)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Vacancy (%)

Supply 27,673 34,173 22,621 19,875 18,202 22,278 35,322 25,790 26,262 31,052 26,397 26,036 17,321 16,579 12,737 16,010

Take-up 27,320 23,250 24,710 20,480 15,090 13,050 19,560 29,180 19,320 18,240 22,490 31,400 17,450 16,400

Vacancy Rate 3.9 4.7 4.1 3.7 3.8 4.5 5.9 5.4 5.7 6.6 6.8 6.2 6.0 5.9

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F

Hong Kong Residential Market (Overall) Supply,

Take-up & Vacancy

Hong Kong Residential Market (Overall) Supply,

Take-up & Vacancy

Sources: Rating and Valuation Department

Page 41: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Current SituationCurrent Situation

Noticeable improvement in sales volumes in 2007 – over Noticeable improvement in sales volumes in 2007 – over 145,000 transactions of which only 19,000 involved 145,000 transactions of which only 19,000 involved primary salesprimary salesLand auctions in 2007 for luxury residential sites have Land auctions in 2007 for luxury residential sites have been well contested – Welfare Road, Aberdeen set new been well contested – Welfare Road, Aberdeen set new benchmarkbenchmarkRents and prices risen in luxury sector but mixed signals Rents and prices risen in luxury sector but mixed signals from mass residential marketfrom mass residential marketVolatile stock market conditions reflected in renewed Volatile stock market conditions reflected in renewed interest in real estate, particularly residentialinterest in real estate, particularly residentialInvestor profile now includes ME, SE Asia, Mainland Investor profile now includes ME, SE Asia, Mainland China as well as domestic players China as well as domestic players

Page 42: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Rents and Prices –Rents and Prices –Luxury MarketLuxury Market

Luxury prices on Hong Kong Island averaged Luxury prices on Hong Kong Island averaged HK$11,000 psf during 2007HK$11,000 psf during 2007

Flat prices on the Peak averaged HK$14,500 Flat prices on the Peak averaged HK$14,500 psf whilst a penthouse in The Legend sold for psf whilst a penthouse in The Legend sold for HK$33,000 psfHK$33,000 psf

Luxury house prices averaged HK$20,000 Luxury house prices averaged HK$20,000 psf on Hong Kong Islandpsf on Hong Kong Island

Rents on the Island averaged HK$45.00 psf Rents on the Island averaged HK$45.00 psf per month with Peak averaging HK$55.00 psfper month with Peak averaging HK$55.00 psf

Page 43: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS Source : CB Richard Ellis Ltd

Page 44: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Rents and Prices – Rents and Prices – Luxury MarketLuxury Market

Very low vacancy rate - below 2.0% Very low vacancy rate - below 2.0% Leasing market expected to remain Leasing market expected to remain strong – 20% uplift forecast for 2008strong – 20% uplift forecast for 2008Luxury prices on Hong Kong Island rose Luxury prices on Hong Kong Island rose by as much as 50% in 2007, Kowloon by as much as 50% in 2007, Kowloon 30% and New Territories 25% 30% and New Territories 25% Further increases in the sales prices Further increases in the sales prices expected during 2008 – up to 30-40% expected during 2008 – up to 30-40%

Page 45: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS Source : CB Richard Ellis Ltd

Page 46: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS Source : CB Richard Ellis Ltd

Page 47: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS Source : CB Richard Ellis Ltd

Page 48: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

The Leighton Hill, Happy ValleyThe Leighton Hill, Happy Valley

Page 49: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

The Bel-Air, PofulamThe Bel-Air, Pofulam

Page 50: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

The Bel-Air, PofulamThe Bel-Air, Pofulam

Page 51: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

The Arch, West KowloonThe Arch, West Kowloon

Page 52: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Rents and Prices – Rents and Prices – Mass Residential Market Mass Residential Market

Prices averaged HK$4,700 – 5,000psf Prices averaged HK$4,700 – 5,000psf across Hong Kong during 2007across Hong Kong during 2007New projects being released a few units at New projects being released a few units at a timea timeAlthough economic conditions continue to Although economic conditions continue to improve, this sector is affected by major improve, this sector is affected by major changes in Hong Kong demographicschanges in Hong Kong demographicsPopulation hollowing outPopulation hollowing outDependent on newly weds and upgradersDependent on newly weds and upgraders

Page 53: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Tin Shui Wai, Yuen LongTin Shui Wai, Yuen Long

Page 54: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Ma On Shan, ShatinMa On Shan, Shatin

Page 55: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Future SupplyFuture Supply

Debate as to adequacy of future supplyDebate as to adequacy of future supply

Predicted to be of the order 15,000 p.a. in Predicted to be of the order 15,000 p.a. in future – c/f 30-35,000 when Hong Kong in future – c/f 30-35,000 when Hong Kong in growth modegrowth mode

Government control of land supply should Government control of land supply should underpin prices as evidenced by latest underpin prices as evidenced by latest Application List releaseApplication List release

Strong growth anticipated in 2008Strong growth anticipated in 2008

Page 56: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

CompanyCompany Land Bank (sq.m)Land Bank (sq.m) CompanyCompany Land Bank (sq.m)Land Bank (sq.m)

New World New World

Development Development 17.5 million

Cheung Kong +Cheung Kong +

Hutchison WhampoaHutchison Whampoa14.4 million

Wharf GroupWharf Group 2.7 million Hang LungHang Lung 2.6 million

Henderson LandHenderson Land 2.4 million Sun Hung KaiSun Hung Kai

PropertiesProperties1.9 million

Kerry PropertiesKerry Properties 1.7 million Sino GroupSino Group 1 million

Swire PropertiesSwire Properties 0.5 million Hongkong LandHongkong Land 0.4 million

China OverseasChina Overseas 14 million China ResourcesChina Resources

LandLand9.6 million

Source: Public Information (As of end 2006)

• Some of the developers have nationwide business exposure: e.g. New World (17 cities), Cheung Kong & Hutchison Whampoa (15), China Overseas (14) and China Resources Land (9)

• Most of other HK developers currently invest in selected cities only

Hong Kong Developers in ChinaHong Kong Developers in China

Page 57: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Hong Kong – CBDHong Kong – CBD

Page 58: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Office SectorOffice Sector

Growth in economy continues Growth in economy continues – 2006 – GDP 6.9% 2006 – GDP 6.9% – 2007 – GDP 6.3%2007 – GDP 6.3%

Little new supply in short term except in Little new supply in short term except in decentralised areasdecentralised areas

Central rents continue strong; secondary Central rents continue strong; secondary districts less sodistricts less so

Page 59: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Market Overview –Market Overview –OfficeOffice

Few choices in CBDFew choices in CBD

Decentralisation – yet again!Decentralisation – yet again!

Demand from both new entrants and Demand from both new entrants and expansion but some impact from sub-expansion but some impact from sub-prime issues anticipatedprime issues anticipated

IFC2 : HK$168 psfIFC2 : HK$168 psf

Exchange Square : HK$138 psf Exchange Square : HK$138 psf

Page 60: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS Sources: CB Richard Ellis

Ltd

Page 61: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS Sources: CB Richard Ellis Ltd

Page 62: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS Source : CB Richard Ellis Ltd

Page 63: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Office SectorOffice Sector

Renewed emphasis will be on Renewed emphasis will be on decentralisation due to high Central rentsdecentralisation due to high Central rents

Weight of institutional funds will maintain Weight of institutional funds will maintain high value regimehigh value regime

Disconnect between yields and capital Disconnect between yields and capital valuesvalues

Opportunities for small investors in Opportunities for small investors in decentralised areas decentralised areas

Page 64: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Market Overview –Market Overview –RetailRetail

In good health, largely sustained by In good health, largely sustained by Mainland visitorsMainland visitors

Traditional areas of Causeway Bay & Tsim Traditional areas of Causeway Bay & Tsim Sha Tsui much in demandSha Tsui much in demand

Re-emergence of strata title investorsRe-emergence of strata title investors

Re-configuration of 1Re-configuration of 1stst and 2 and 2ndnd floor podium floor podium space to retail usespace to retail use

Emergence of Big Box and other formatsEmergence of Big Box and other formats

Page 65: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Market Overview –Market Overview –Other SectorsOther Sectors

Interest in 2/3 star hotels, fuelled by Mainland Interest in 2/3 star hotels, fuelled by Mainland tour groups – 10 sites included on Application tour groups – 10 sites included on Application ListListHotel occupancies and room rates upHotel occupancies and room rates upConversion of industrial sites to hotel and guest Conversion of industrial sites to hotel and guest house usehouse usePrevious initiatives to revitalise industrial Previous initiatives to revitalise industrial buildings unsuccessful e.g. I/O, general buildings unsuccessful e.g. I/O, general business zoning, but likely to see renewed business zoning, but likely to see renewed efforts in 2008 efforts in 2008

Page 66: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Ongoing ChallengesOngoing Challenges

Continued and potentially increased Government Continued and potentially increased Government involvement involvement Trading mentality still prevailsTrading mentality still prevailsQuality of life issuesQuality of life issues– HarbourHarbour– HeritageHeritage– SustainabilitySustainability– Urban RenewalUrban Renewal– Air PollutionAir Pollution

Community engagementCommunity engagement

Page 67: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

Extract from Wanchai & Adjoining Areas Extract from Wanchai & Adjoining Areas Public Engagement KitPublic Engagement Kit

Page 68: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

S.W. Kowloon – Aerial ViewS.W. Kowloon – Aerial View

Page 69: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

S.E. Kowloon – The Existing PlatformS.E. Kowloon – The Existing Platform

Page 70: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

PPPPSS

New Central WaterfrontNew Central Waterfront

Page 71: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

Thank you!Thank you!

Professional Property Professional Property Services LimitedServices Limited

PPPPSS

Page 72: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

© 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

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Page 73: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

© 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved

Gerson Lehrman Group ContactsAccounting & Financials Analysis (AFA)

Andrew GordonSenior Vice President

Accounting & Financial Analysis (AFA)

Gerson Lehrman Group

850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor

New York, NY 10022

212-984-3693

[email protected]

Aaron LibermanManaging Director, Sales and Marketing

Gerson Lehrman Group

850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor

New York, NY 10022

212-984-3684

[email protected]

Carly PisarriMarket and Product Development Manager, Events

Gerson Lehrman Group

850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor

New York, NY 10022

212-750-1435

[email protected]

Page 74: Property Markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong Nicholas Brooke

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