projections of the australian population by indigenous status: a progress report prepared for:...

Projections of the Australian population by Indigenous status: a progress report

Prepared for:Summer School on Projection Methods for Ethnicity and

Immigration Status

Leeds University, July 2009

Tom Wilson

Projections of the Australian population by Indigenous status

Who is Indigenous? (1)

A definition from an international perspective:

“Indigenous peoples include descendants of the original inhabitants of a country: * who have become encapsulated in their lands by a numerically and politically dominant invasive society, * who retain a cultural difference from that society, and * who self-identify as Indigenous”

(Taylor 2003)



In Australia Indigenous refers to both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

What has become known as ‘The Commonwealth Definition’ was given in a High Court judgement in 1983: “An Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander is a person * of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander descent * who identifies as an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, and * who is accepted as such by the community in which he or she lives”



Operational definition employed by ABS in the Census and its surveys uses only one aspect of the Commonwealth definition:

Is the person of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander origin? For persons of both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander origin mark both 'Yes' boxes. No Yes, Aboriginal Yes, Torres Strait Islander


Why produce population projections by Indigenous status?

► Need to plan service requirements (education, housing, employment, health, etc.). Large sections of the Indigenous population suffer considerable socio-economic disadvantage.► Set targets for addressing discrimination (e.g. in labour market)

Challenges in producing Indigenous status projections

► No data on some components of change► Medium-poor quality of the data that is available► No clear boundary between the Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations► Indigenous issues are sensitive and very politicised► Obtaining Indigenous demographic data from ABS can be difficult


What is the current Indigenous population of Australia?

ABS have published experimental Indigenous Estimated Resident Population (ERP) for 30 June 2006.

Based on 2006 Census but adjusted for * net underenumeration (a big adjustment)* timing difference between Census night (8 August) and 30 June

For 30 June 2006:* Indigenous ERP was 517,000* ERP for whole of Australia was 20,698,000 Indigenous population therefore 2.5% of national total

Indigenous ERPs only updated after each Census (therefore no 2007 or 2008 ERPs)

Spatial distribution: States and territories

NSW & Qld have largestIndigenous populations

NT has by far largest %

Source: ABS

Experimental Indigenous ERP by state and territory, 2006

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000

NSW Vic Q ld SA W A Tas NT ACT

Indigenous population as a percentage of the total population by state and territory, 2006

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

NSWVicQ ldSA

W ATasNT

ACTAus

% Indigenous


Age-sex structure by Indigenous status

Indigenous ERP, 2006 Non-Indigenous ERP, 2006

Source: ABS

males females

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0–45–9

10–1415–1920–2425–2930–3435–3940–4445–4950–5455–5960–6465–6970–7475–7980–84

85+

Age

gro

up

P ercentage of total population

males females

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0–45–9

10–1415–1920–2425–2930–3435–3940–4445–4950–5455–5960–6465–6970–7475–7980–84

85+

Ag

e g

rou

p

Percentage of total population



How has the Indigenous population grown in recent years?

Demographic balancing (or accounting) equation: national Australian population by Indigenous status

Population (t+n) = Population at time t

+ births (t,t+n)- deaths (t,t+n)+ immigration (t,t+n)- emigration (t,t+n)+ ethnic mobility into the population- ethnic mobility out of the population


Estimated Resident Population of Australia's Indigenous population

Coloured diamonds ingraph are experimental ERPs

Dashed lines are backcastERPs allowing for births anddeaths only

Why the error of closure?* Overseas migration?* Identification change?* Undercount of nat. increase?* Census problems?

Source: ABS

Estimates of Australia's Indigenous population, 1986-2006

0

1 0 0 ,0 0 0

2 0 0 ,0 0 0

3 0 0 ,0 0 0

4 0 0 ,0 0 0

5 0 0 ,0 0 0

6 0 0 ,0 0 0

1 9 8 6 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6

expe

rimen

tal I

ndig

enou

s E

RP


Earlier estimates of Australia's Indigenous population

Indigenous ERPs not produced prior to 1986; Census counts only

1971 Census was first census in which a full Indigenous enumeration was attempted

Prior to 1967 the constitution stated that:

“In reckoning the numbers of the people of the Commonwealth, or of a State or other part of the Commonwealth, aboriginal natives should not be counted”

Following a referendum in 1967 this section of the Constitution was removed

Earlier censuses only counted Indigenous people in order to exclude them from official population counts

Earlier estimates of Australia's Indigenous population

Pre-1986 Census counts of the Indigenous population1971: 115,9531976: 160,9151981: 159,897Not comparable with ERPs

What was the Indigenous population at European contact (1788)?

Various figures have been suggestedMulvaney & White, 1987 750,000Taylor, 2006 No less than 500,000Whatever the number it was larger than the Census count of 1971

Indigenous population subsequently declined * lower fertility* decimated by newly-introduced diseases



Mortality

Difficult to measure Indigenous mortality rates and life expectancy

Most deaths are thought to be registered but many deaths to Indigenous people are not recorded as such

Until this year ABS used growth balance method to estimate Indigenous mortality

However, now death counts are adjusted for undercount and Indigenous mortality is calculated directly via life tables

Life expectancy at birth by Indigenous status, 2005-07 (years)Indigenous Non-Indigenous

Females 72.9 82.6 (difference: 9.7 years)Males 67.2 78.7 (difference: 11.5 years)

Source: Experimental Life Tables for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, Australia, ABS, 2009


Mortality in the Northern Territory

Northern Territory has the best Indigenous demographic data of all the states & territories

Life expectancy calculatedin conventional way

Big improvements inlong-run . . .

. . . but no narrowing ofthe gap with total lifeexpectancy

Source: Wilson, Condon & Barnes, 2007

40

50

60

70

80

90

19

67

19

71

19

75

19

79

19

83

19

87

19

91

19

95

19

99

20

03

life

ex

pe

cta

nc

y a

t b

irth

(y

ea

rs)

A ustra lian fem ales N T Ind igenous fem alesA ustra lian m ales N T Ind igenous m ales


Overseas migration

Very little overseas migration exchanges of the Indigenous population

but this is likely to change in the future

Lots of overseas migration amongst the non-Indigenous populationIncreasingly temporary migration, esp. overseas students

and business visa holders


Identification change / ethnic mobility

Debate as to whether this really exists

Very little direct information

Cross-check of Indigenous status in Post-Enumeration Survey and in census reveals some differences.

There may be some identification “change” from what is recorded for young children in the census compared what they report themselves in later censuses. Identity formation rather than change.


Fertility of Indigenous women

Recent Indigenous fertility based on birth registrationsEarlier fertility estimated from census children ever born question


Mothers and babies by Indigenous status, Australia, 1996-2001

Calculations by Kinfu & Taylor, 2002 and 2005, based on the own-children method

Indigenous women Non-Indigenous women

39,179 1,522 14,633

Indigenous babies Non-Indigenous babies 53,812

Babies born to non-Indigenous women with Indigenous partners are an important contribution to Indigenous population growth (27%)

The increasing proportion of Indigenous births to non-Indigenous women

Model presented byAlan Gray (2002)

Reflects increasingintermarriage/partnering

Views all statesas following logistic curvepath

Australia as a wholecurrently at about28%



Exogamy (out-marriage)

According to 2006 Census* 52% of Indigenous males in partnerships* 55% of Indigenous females in partnershipshad a non-Indigenous partner/spouse (Heard et al. 2009)

Higher % in urban arease.g. 83% for Indigenous females in Sydney

8% in Balance of NT Higher % the higher the individual's educational attainment Higher % the higher the individual's income

Breakdown of cultural barriers?

Important implications for fertility & Indigenous population growth


A model for projecting Australia's population by Indigenous status

Cohort-component model with 5 year age groups and 5 year projection intervals

Movement accounts-based model

Operationalised in Microsoft Excel with a projection horizon of 30 years

Two population groups: Indigenous; non-Indigenous

Model allows for ethnic mobility between populations

Childbearing model permits non-Indigenous mothers to give birth to Indigenous babies (and vice versa)


Childbearing sub-model

Very basic at present

Births to Indigenous and non-Indigenous women calculated first

These births are split, using simple proportions, into Indigenous & non-Indigenous births

Advantage over ABS method which assumes all births to Indigenous women are Indigenous (about 4% are not)

Where does the data for these proportions come from?* Census tables of 0-4 year olds by Indigenous status of mother* ABS birth statistics of Indigenous births

but all births to Indigenous mothers classified as Indigenousunder-reporting problem


Projection assumptions summary

Jump-off pops 30 June 2006 ERPs

TFRs Indigenous: 2.30 for 2006-11 ... 2.10 by 2016-21Non-Indigenous: 1.90 for 2006-11; 1.85

thereafter

4.6% of births to Ind. women non-Indigenous, increasing by 10% per 5 year projection

interval.0.8% of births to non-Ind. women Indigenous,

increasing by 10% per 5 year projection interval

e(0) Ind F: 72.9 > 74.8 Ind M: 67.2 > 69.8Non-Ind F: 83.9 > 88.1 Non-Ind M: 79.3 >

84.8

NOM Indigenous: zeroNon-Indigenous: 180,000 per annum

Identification No identification change


Projection results: Indigenous population

2006: 517,0002036: 898,000

Annual numericalgrowth increasesfrom 10,300 p.ain 2006-11 to 14,700 p.a. by2031-36

Annual averagegrowth ratedeclines v. slowlyfrom 1.9% to1.7%

0

100 ,000

200 ,000

300 ,000

400 ,000

500 ,000

600 ,000

700 ,000

800 ,000

900 ,000

1 ,000 ,000

20

06

20

11

20

16

20

21

20

26

20

31

20

36

Po

pu

lati

on


Projection results: Indigenous age-sex profiles

% increase by age 2006-36

2006 2036% 0-14 38 31% 15-64 59 61% 65+ 3 8

60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000

0–45–9

10–1415–1920–2425–2930–3435–3940–4445–4950–5455–5960–6465–6970–7475–7980–8485–89

90+

Ag

e g

rou

p

M ale s Fe male s

2006

2036

0 100 200 300 400 500

0–45–9

10–1415–1920–2425–2930–3435–3940–4445–4950–5455–5960–6465–6970–7475–7980–8485–89

90+

Ag

e g

rou

p

% change


Projection results: births

% of Indigenous births borne by non-Indigenous mothers increases from 29% in 2006-11 to 37% in 2031-26

Moving up Alan Gray's logistic curve model

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2006-11

2011-16

2016-21

2021-26

2026-31

2031-36

Indi

geno

us b

irth

s

Non-Indigenous mothers

Indigenous mothers


Summary

Indigenous population of Australia is disadvantaged and has high service needs (health, education, employment, aged care, etc.)

Projections are essential for planning to meet these needs

Projections indicate a fast growing population, with an important contribution from non-Indigenous women (partnered with Indigenous men)

Growth at all ages, esp. elderly

Indigenous population increasingly one of mixed ancestry (though we don't explicitly model that)

Data is often poor quality (though gradually improving): past trends unclear, current population uncertain, future very uncertain

Heterogeneity of Australia's Indigenous population

“The Indigenous population” often used in literature

Considerable heterogeneity by geographical area, remoteness area, ancestry, culture, etc.

Map shows % ofIndigenous peoplespeaking anIndigenouslanguage at home,2001

Source: Taylor, 2006



Next steps

(1) Add simple partnership model (probably a static model)

partnered with: Ind. M Non-Ind. M otherIndigenous F 1 2 3Non-Ind. F 4 5 6other 7 8 n/a

(2) Estimate & project TFRs for states 1-6 above

(3) Distribute babies born to those in states 1-6 into Indigenous & non-Indigenous based on past trends


Future work

The size, age structure and components of change of the Indigenous population are currently uncertain

They have been uncertain in the past

The future is even more uncertain

► Probabilistic projections (with probabilistic jump-off populations); & probabilistic estimates of past populations


The end

Any questions?

projections of the australian population by indigenous status: a progress report prepared for:...

Documents