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Tidal Wetlands in the Delaware Estuary: Projected Effects of Salinity and Sea Level Rise and Potential Adaptation Strategies
Danielle KreegerScience DirectorPartnership for the Delaware Estuary
Importance of Tidal Wetlands
Tidal Wetlands
A Signature Trait of System
•Near Contiguous Band
•Diverse: Freshwater Tidal MarshesBrackish MarshesSalt Marshes
Tidal Wetlands
A Signature Trait
Ecological Values:
Structuralhabitat for fish and wildlifenurseries for imperiled taxa
Functionalfood webwater qualityflood protection
+ Many other supporting services
Milenium Ecosystem Assessment
1º Service2º Service 3º Service 4º Service
Provisioning
FoodFisheries Support
Algae and invertebrate production
Genetic Materials Phragmites control research
Biochemical Products Research in Antifungal Agents
Fiber and Fuel Cellulose stock
Regulating
Sequestration Carbon
Carbon Caps,
mitigation
Sediment StabilizationErosion control
Meet TMDLs for
sedimentStorm Protection/ Wave Attenuation/
Flood ProtectionProtect Property Values and
infrastructure
Gas RegulationCarbon Sequestration
Oxygen production
Water Quality Sequestration, Filtering TMDLs: Nutrients,
Pollutants
Cultural/ Spiritual
Human Well Being
Recreation Bird watching, hunting, boating
Spiritual and Inspirational Native American Uses
Educational
University reasearch & school
projects/trips
Aesthetic Value
Landscape pictures, paintings,
open space
Supporting
Habitat Wildlife, shellfish, insects
Biodiversity Maintain Plant Communities
Production Primary Production
Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime
Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical
Processes
Maintain trophic cycles, soil
building
Wetland Ecosystem Services
Valuation of New
Jersey’s Natural
Capital and
Ecosystem Services
New Jersey Department of
Environmental Protection
Slide from Bill Mates, NJDEP 6Kreeger
Tidal Wetlands
A Signature Trait of the Delaware Estuary System
Ecological Values:
Structuralhabitat for fish and wildlifenurseries for imperiled taxa
Functionalfood webwater qualityflood protection
Concerns:
Degradation
Degradation
Moderately
Stressed
48%
Severely
Stressed
35%
Minimally
or Not
Stressed
17%
Tidal Wetlands
Ecological Values:
Structuralhabitat
Functionalfood webwater qualityflood protection
Concerns:Degradation
Conversion & Loss
Freshwater Tidal Wetland Acreage
Estimated
< 5% remains
Tidal Wetlands
Ecological Values:
Structuralhabitat
Functionalfood webwater qualityflood protection
Concerns:DegradationConversion & Loss
Sea level riseSalinity rise
Canary Creek Marsh, DE
1992
2006
Courtesy J. Gebert, ACOE
Courtesy D. Bushek, Rutgers
ShorelineErosion
Tidal Wetlands
Ecological Values:
Structuralhabitat
Functionalfood webwater qualityflood protection
Storms
Concerns:DegradationConversion & LossSea Level Rise
Living Shorelines 2008
Tidal Wetlands
Concerns:Degradation Conversion and LossSea Level RiseStorms
Sediment budget
1. Likely Physical Changes
2. Example Effects on Resources
Temp
Salinity Sea Level Rise
Marshes Bivalves
Storms
Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary
DK 17
Drinking Water
Climate
Adaptation
Planning
Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish
ID
Vulnerabilities
Ecological
Valuation
Adaptation
Options
Recommendations
and Reporting
Case Studies
Drinking Water
18Kreeger
Tidal Wetland Vulnerability?
Freshwater Tidal Marshes
• Salinity Rise Causes Conversion to Brackish• Barriers to Landward Migration• Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting
Salt Marshes
• Sea Level Rise, Subsidence and Sediment Deficits Lead to Drowning
• Storms and Wind Wave Erosion• Barriers to Landward Migration• Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives
Slide adapted from Michael Craghan, Rutgers
Tidal marshes need to move:
1) horizontally(landward)
and/or
2) vertically(to keep pace)
Can they do it?
Where?
DK 20
Tidal Wetlands Adaptation PlanningGoal: Maximize long-term ecosystem health and resiliency
Wetland Tough Choices• Where will wetlands will be
converted to open water?• Where can we save them ?• Where is strategic retreat
the best option?DK 21
Projecting the Fate of Tidal Wetlands and Their Ecosystem
Services Using SLAMM Modeling - Industrial Economics
Areas for Model Improvement
• Erosion/Accretion Rates
• Better Vegetation Classifications
• Marsh Drowning Mechanisms
2000 2100
Added Complexity
•Dredging
•Ecological Flows
•Withdrawals
•LNG Terminal
•Horseshoe Crabs, Red Knots
•Inundation, SLR
•Emerging Pollutants
•Spills, NRDA
•Land Use Change
So What Can We Do?
What Can We Do? 1. Preserve Resiliency
Protect and Conserve (CCMP)
What Can We Do? 2. Monitor & Study
MACWA
The Mid-Atlantic Coastal Wetland
Assessment
What Can We Do? 3. Maintain, Enhance, Restore..
Shovel Ready Projects !!
Changes in Wetland FunctionNatural versus Restored
time
Function
Reference Wetland Condition
Restored Wetlands
Existing Wetlands
Slide from Amy Jacobs (DE DNREC)
Principle: “Restore” for the Future
• Forecast future sustainable states• Smart “restoration” = climate adaptation
DK 31
• Shift policy and management paradigms
• Reduce wave energy
• Trap silt
• Reduce bank erosion
• Protect salt marsh
Shellfish as Natural Breakwaters
Slide from Dave Bushek, Rutgers
Delaware Estuary Living Shoreline Initiative
Geukensia demissa
Salt Marshes
Ecosystem Engineers
Mussel –SpartinaMutualism
Kathy Klein
Ribbed mussels as an alternative target restoration species
– Not commercially important, not eaten– No conflict between restoring shellfish and protecting human health
and industry
– Mussels provide ecological benefits like oysters– Filtration, habitat enrichment
– Biodeposition facilitates cord grass production and levee formation
– Shoreline stabilization
– Could combine with restoration of marshes and nearshore oyster reefs for greater impact, in some areas
Living Shorelines
Importance of Shellfish to
the Delaware Estuary
Watershed
Examples
Log + Log + Shell Bags
Site D - Lower Energy
Goal: Maximize Future Tidal Wetland Natural Capital
40Kreeger
Principles:1. Base natural capital on functional acreage, not just acreage
enhancing condition of existing wetlands may yield greater functional acreage in the long term compared to traditional restoration/creation (acreage focus)
2. Strive for high resilience and low vulnerabilityinvest in wetlands that are most sustainable
3. Consider Ways to Mitigate Watershed Stressorsbroad impacts (sediment deficits, nutrient imbalances) may be bestaddressed with management and policy decision-making
Carbon Sequestration Uplift
Preservation and Enhancement
(e.g. Living Shorelines)
Traditional Restoration,
Creation
Landward Migration
Investments
41Kreeger
CarbonSeq.
vs
acreage
condition function
How much CS per $in 1 year?in 30 years?
- End -
e.g., Carbon Sequestration
Some Literature
Temperate wetlands accumulate 1.42 tons C ha-1 yr-1
Wetlands represent the largest component of the terrestrial biological C pool
Average soil organic carbon density (Denmark)Wetlands: 35.6 kg m−2
Forests: 16.9 kg m−2
Agricultural areas: 14.0 kg m−2
Conversion of agricultural lands to wetlands can enhance C sequestration
In contrast to other wetlands, tidal salt marshes release negligible amounts of greenhouse gases and store more carbon per unit area