project proposal forest and water in changing climate -
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Project proposal Forest and water in changing climate - Impacts of climate change on water discharge as a key ecosystem function in different (mountainous) catchments in Europe European Environment Agency Josef Herkendell Project manager biodiversity and climate change impacts. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Project proposalProject proposal
Forest and water in changing climate -Forest and water in changing climate -
Impacts of climate change on water Impacts of climate change on water discharge as a key ecosystem function discharge as a key ecosystem function in different (mountainous) catchments in different (mountainous) catchments
in Europein EuropeEuropean Environment Agency
Josef Herkendell
Project manager biodiversity and climate change impacts
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Mountainous catchment (Alps)Mountainous catchment (Alps)
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Mountainous catchment (Norway)Mountainous catchment (Norway)
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Virtual water catchmentVirtual water catchment
P(t)P(t)
Source: FAO Land and water bulletin 1/1993Source: FAO Land and water bulletin 1/1993
R(t)
t
EP(t)EP(t)
R(t)R(t)
Precipitation changes
Temperature changes
Land use
Runoff changes
Proposed size of the water catchment
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Human versus natural impacts on watershed Human versus natural impacts on watershed processes: a matter of scaleprocesses: a matter of scale
Source: Source: Based on G. Ives and B. MesserliBased on G. Ives and B. Messerli, 1989. The Himalayan dilemma. Reconciling, 1989. The Himalayan dilemma. Reconciling development and conservation. development and conservation. London and New York, RoutledgeLondon and New York, Routledge
MICRO-WATERSHED(less than 50 km²)
MESO-WATERSHED(50 to 20 000 km²)
MACRO-WATERSHED(bigger than 20 000 km²)
LIMITED
N A
T U
R A
L
IMPA
CT
H U
M A
N
IMPA
CT
LIMITED
HIGHER
HIGHER
Proposed size: less than 500 km² ?
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Questions to be answered by projectQuestions to be answered by projectOverall targetsOverall targets
Test ing an integrated environmental assessment approach to better understand the functions and services of different land uses in catchments
Assessing and mapping the multiple functions of different land uses in catchments ( Reality check ) Variation over Europe
Selecting those functions to be shown as the most relevant ones for optimising quality of habitats and water discharge
Testing the response behaviour on the impact of extreme weather events based past data with regional CC scenarios
Vulnerability check Adaptive capacity of the different functions?/limitations? (reality
check on the basis of regional CC scenarios and/or observed impacts of extreme weather events)
Current and actual adaptation observations and processes
Possible recommendations for optimising land-use management
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Proposed selection criteria for water catchments Proposed selection criteria for water catchments in the frame of this project:in the frame of this project:
Size: 50 to 500 km², one of each bio-geographical region
Physical and bio-geographical data and information on actual land-use/changes in land-use
±Even distribution of land-uses protected areas, forests and agriculture
East-West/West-East direction of the river flow (±20°), preferably
Full discharge information quantity/quality for the catchment Forest growth; Carbon stored; etc.
Information on weather extremes in the past 30 years (either drought, extreme precipitation)
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Additional information and data needs for each Additional information and data needs for each catchment:catchment:
High density of additional information on ecosystems, preferably long-time series,
▪ Protected areas ▪ Forest ▪ Agriculture ▪ ( other relevant socio-economic information)?
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Changes in runoff in Central Alps Changes in runoff in Central Alps (Hirham RCM)(Hirham RCM)
Source: Martin Beniston, University of Geneva, SwitzerlandSource: Martin Beniston, University of Geneva, Switzerland
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Biogeographic regions of Europe Biogeographic regions of Europe
Examples of recent and projected runoff regimeExamples of recent and projected runoff regime
ArcticArctic
BorealBoreal
AtlanticAtlantic
ContinentalContinental
AlpineAlpine
PanonianPanonian
MediterraneanMediterranean
SteppicSteppic
Black SeaBlack Sea
AnatolianAnatolian
Rhone (Chancy)
Dischmabach (Davos)
Indalsaelven (Bergeforens)
Guadiana (Pulo do Lobo)
Source: Source: Zierl et al. 2004, Dankers and Feyen, 2008, Dankers and Feyen, 2008
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Alpine runoff regimeAlpine runoff regime
Source: Source: Zierl et al. 2004
0
100
200
300
400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
current
A1FI HadCM3
A2 HadCM3
B1 HadCM3
B2 HadCM3
A2 CGCM2
A2 CSIRO2
A2 PCM2
Example Dischma valley, 2051 - 2080
? = weather extremes, flood, drought? = weather extremes, flood, drought
??
possible minimum possible minimum discharge (drought)discharge (drought)
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Multifunctionality of water catchments and their Multifunctionality of water catchments and their servicesservices
Functions
Land uses
Water discharge
Biodiversity C-storageCulture aspects/
landscape
Protectionof
infrastructure Income
Forests
Agriculture
Infrastructure
?
For all cases: average development for the last 30 yearsFor all cases: average development for the last 30 years
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Multifunctionality of water catchments in EuropeMultifunctionality of water catchments in Europe
Functions
Land uses
Water discharge
Biodiversity C-storageCulture aspects/
landscape
Protectionof
infrastructure Income
Forests
Agriculture
Infrasructure
?
Vulnerability check:Vulnerability check: Impacts of extreme weather events in the past 30 years and climate change impacts in recent years (if available)
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Biogeographic regions of Europe Biogeographic regions of Europe
Mountainous Northern EuropeMountainous Northern Europe (No, Swe, Fin) (No, Swe, Fin)Less snow, lake and river coverLess snow, lake and river coverIncreased river flowsIncreased river flows
Central and Eastern Europe Central and Eastern Europe medium range mountains (F, D, Cz) medium range mountains (F, D, Cz)Less summer precipitationLess summer precipitationMore river floods in winterMore river floods in winter
High mountain areasHigh mountain areas (Alps, Carpathians) (Alps, Carpathians)High temperature increase High temperature increase Less glacier massLess glacier massLess mountain oermafrostLess mountain oermafrost
Mountainous Mediterranean regionMountainous Mediterranean regionDecrease in annual precipitationDecrease in annual precipitationDecrease in annual river flowDecrease in annual river flowLess energy by hydropowerLess energy by hydropower
??
Source: EEA Report No 4/2008, p.19Source: EEA Report No 4/2008, p.19
Selection of catchments on the basis of forest covered Selection of catchments on the basis of forest covered water catchmentswater catchments
??
??
??
????
??
??
??
ArcticArctic
BorealBoreal
AtlanticAtlantic
ContinentalContinental
AlpineAlpine
PanonianPanonian
MediterraneanMediterranean
SteppicSteppic
Black SeaBlack Sea
AnatolianAnatolian
??
(?)(?)
Highlands in ScotlandHighlands in ScotlandIncrease of winter precipitationIncrease of winter precipitationIncreased river flowsIncreased river flows
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Questions to be answered for each case study:Questions to be answered for each case study:
How do the ecosystem services vary?
Do the different land-uses full fill the multiple functions of ecosystems in catchments differntly?
Which conclusions can be taken from the information on past extreme weather events?
Which recent impacts related to climate change can be observed?
Which conclusion need to be drawn in terms of recommendations for the future management of water catchments in different bio-geographical regions in Europe?
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Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention
and your contribution!and your contribution!
[email protected]@eea.europa.eu