Project PlanRoot Cause and Risk Analysis

Team 2

NASA: Henning Leidecker; 301-286-9180

Boeing: Gary W. Bickel; 714-372-6820

2/25/00

Team 2 Members• Project Leads: Henning Leidecker-NASA/GSFC

» Gary W. Bickel-Boeing/HB• Team Members: Ray Prestridge-JSC

» Pete Mueggler-BHB

» Carol McDonald-BHOU

» Anna Cantwell-SEA

» David Gill-BHB

» Jeanette Plante-GSFC

» Dave Rothermel-BICC

» Dale Zevotek-BICC

» Martin Seifert-LSFT

» David Beverly-JSC

» Craig Mueller-AERO

» Harold Battaglia-BHOU

» John Canham-GSFC

Task 1-Root Cause Analysis

• Identify Primary Agent for “Rocket Engine Defect”--complete: HF-etch enabled by Polyimide void and carbon coating breech

• Investigate Strength Reduction, ‘96 Cable--complete: 124/446 samples below Proof-Test level; Polyimide void consistently observed

• need to complete microphotographs on approximately 34 samples

• Investigate Strength Reduction, ‘98-9 Cable--partially complete

• Determine source of Polyimide coating voids (fiber or other process)

• Determine Agent (or process step) for carbon coating breech

• Resolve Lingering Questions (Polyimide Canyons versus voids, SEM)

• Complete Root Cause Analysis Report

Task 1-Root Cause: status

• Microphotos on 34 Samples-deferred

• Strength Tests 98-9 Cable-on hold

• Polyimide Coating Voids Source: no progress

• Coating Penetration Test Plan in development

• SEM to sort variations in Polyimide void structure: no progress

• Root Cause Report: Major sections left to write

Task 2-Risk AnalysisUS Lab and Node 1

• Estimate Potential Failures due to Rocket Engine Defects--

• Determine Effective “n” value--failed; insufficient data

• Determine alternate model for failure prediction of existing defects/flaws

• Estimate pre-flight and on-orbit failures based on strength distribution data

• Determine Potential for Post-Process defect generation by Launch vibration impact

• Determine Potential for on-orbit defect generation by Ionized Radiation

• Prepare Risk Analysis Report for US Lab and Node 1

Task 2-Risk Analysis: StatusUS Lab and Node 1

• Preliminary Risk Analysis Completed

• No consensus on Preliminary Risk Analysis based on “worst case” n-value

• Preparing proposal to do n-value tests for ESD attack on uncabled fiber

• Efforts on vibration/ionizing radiation launch & on-orbit effects on-going

Task 3-Risk Analysis & Reduction(Node 1 DT0 Cable, ESA Cable, all ‘98-9 Cable Use)

• Determine Low Strength Distribution for ‘98-9 cable--

• Provide Preliminary Strength Tests on ESA Cable (representing ‘97 production)--

• Determine Effect of additional “Proof Testing” at the Cable level

• Apply results of above in estimating risk

• Prepare Risk Analysis Reports as needed for these tasks

Task 3-Risk Analysis & Reduction: Status(Node 1 DT0 Cable, ESA Cable, all ‘98-9 Cable

Use)

• Strength Tests on 98-9 cable on hold

• Tests on ESA cable pending receipt of cables and funding decisions

• Proof Testing fixture in development

Team 2--ScheduleComplete/agree risk model for US Lab/Node 1 Mar 1

Complete Prelim. Calculations for Lab/Node Mar 7

Hold TIM on US Lab/Node 1 Risk assessment Mar 8 No Agreement

Complete Risk Assessment Report Lab/Node Mar 10 Pending Waiver

Complete ‘98-9 Cable Strength Tests Mar 7 Pending Waiver

Complete ESA Cable Tests/Risk Analysis Mar 17 Effort TBD

Complete Cable Proof Test Assessment Mar 17 31

Complete Fiber Coating Flaw Tests Mar 24 Apr 7

Complete Risk Assessment for DTO/Prod. Mar 24

Complete Prelim. Root Cause Report Apr 4 18

Hold TIM on Root Cause Report Apr 5 19

Issue Final Root Cause Report Apr 7 21

Team 2--Resources RequiredBoeing HB Manpower Hrs

Sr. Principal Engr. or Equiv. 390

Des. Engr. 24

QA Teach 120

Prod. Operator 80

Sem Analyst 40

Travel $5000

Outside Services $10,000