“THEJUMP”An analytical study and future report showcasing the effectsdrafting individualswith varying collegiate experience levels hason the on-court and future monetary value of each professionalNBAPlayer.Thepurposeofthisstudyis tounderstandtheeffectsofselectingspecificindividualsatcertainpointsinthedraftandhowitequatestologicallevelsofproduction.Usingthisinformation,itismyhopethatwecangeneratereliableprojectionsandrealisticexpectationsforboththeorganizationandthedraftee.

ResearchedandWrittenby:JustinUllestad

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Aboutthisdocument:This document is the first part of a larger study diagramming the value of any player based on the draftee’s age and ranking/selection number in the NBA Draft. Purpose:The purpose of this document is to: 1) illustrate the true value of drafting a player at a given point in the draft 2) emphasize production trends from any given draft location 3) showcase the flaws and dangers when drafting freshmen outside of the top five 4) and show the commonalities between both salary and career longevity with draft year and pick number. Background:Over the past decade, the game of basketball has changed tremendously. With fluidity, spacing, and exceptional ball movement replacing “isolation basketball” for the most part, the intangibles teams should be looking for and analyzing during the NBA Draft process need to reflect both these ideas, as well as the culture/outlook of the locker room and organization. However, it is my belief that the model for selecting individuals is flawed in this aspect, in that teams are often drafting based on a “players ceiling” and athleticism. Although these are both important when picking a player, today’s NBA game doesn’t necessarily guarantee that athleticism and potential equates to success. As recent NBA Draft history illustrates (as you will see in this study), teams are more likely to take a college freshman in the top five than any other class. Since 2004, more freshmen have been taken in the top five than all other college classes combined. However, only 12 of those players rank in the top 100 PER over their first five years in the NBA. Anthony Davis (who ranks #1 in PER in the data sample) is one of the most valuable young players in the league today, but even he has admitted that it took him a couple years to build the necessary strength to compete on a nightly basis in the NBA after playing just one year at Kentucky. With the advancement and increased use of metrics altering the way teams and players approach the game; the next step should be to use this data to make more educated decisions during the draft selection process. Using measurable metrics that take into consideration not only players skill set and intangibles, but also player comparisons from past like-scenarios would not only benefit the organizations participating in the draft, but also the players deciding whether or not to enter the draft, the draftees, and the overall health of the NBA game.

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DataSelection:For this segment of the project, I chose to use the first five years of any given player’s career between the 2004-05 and 2014-15 seasons. In order to garner an effective sample to cross the last decade basketball, it was important to sample a similar set of data for each player. Given the first five years (or less) of a player’s time in the League is considered the most important years of his career – for both monetary and on-court value reasons – this data gives teams a baseline of what to expect/desire from draftees at various levels of selections during the draft process. Generally, the players who had a PER ranked in the top 100 in this model have had/are having/on their way to having solid careers in the NBA. NextStepsinthisProject:This project was originally intended to be a thesis paper to conclude my MBA at Florida Atlantic University. At this moment, my desire is to continue my research and publish my findings in either paper or book form. The current set of data you are about to be immersed in is a small sample size of what the final project is to cover. Other topics to be included in the final document will include:

• Pros and cons of changing the NBA age limit and effective ways to implement such a rule

• Effects early entry into the NBA draft is having on college basketball • Disappearance of “true post players” and how early exits from college

could play a factor • How a NCAA/NBA relationship could increase revenue, player heath and

safety, and viewership Thankyou:I want to thank you for taking the time to read through this analytical study. There is still more research to be done before the project will be completed, but I feel this information is relevant to not only the NBA Draft process, but to the current landscape of the League in general. I am incredibly passionate about the sport basketball and the future of the game as a whole. If you have any comments or questions about this particular study, the overall project or any of the following data, please feel free to contact me directly and I would be happy to discuss it with you in more detail.

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Draft Totals by Class (2004-2015)

Over the past decade, the high school and freshman classes have dominated the headlines during NBA Draft Weekend. With 29 of the possible 60 top 5 selections including either of these classes (1 out of every lottery picks), the league has seen an influx of young talent at every position. Although underclassmen are characteristically taken early on, it is interesting note that the senior class dominates the last finals 45 selections in the draft within this data set. Additionally, teams have been able to find quality international players outside the lottery over the past decade with 16 of the 20 highest paid international players being selected after pick 14. Although there is tremendous surface value for taking talented underclassmen early in the draft, the remainder of this document will hopefully shed light on the true value of where and when players are selected during the draft process.

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PercentageofPicksbyDraftClass(2004-2015)

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AverageCareerLengthbyDraftClass(2004-2015)

One of the major selling points projected by teams and the media for selecting a younger player early in the NBA Draft is this idea that youth equates to a longer career/tenure with the organization. If an organization can grab a player at 19 years, he is still in the prime of his career after 10 seasons. Although that theory makes sense on the surface, the average career length of NBA player isn’t nearly that long. In fact, the only area that theory remotely reaches a “players prime” in this data set is when considering the average career of a High School player drafted in the first round (small sample size). The reality is that lottery selected players average a longer career length than those who are drafted later or go undrafted. However, there isn’t a strong correlation that age plays a dominant factor in forecasting a players career length. As shown in the above graph, the variation between those players who attend college and decide enter the draft early (Freshman – Junior) is just over 8%. Additionally, the data is weighted heavily towards the underclassmen (as many of the top players in college leave for the NBA early) which illustrates that seniors taken post lottery have a longer career average than that of an underclassman taken at the same pick number.

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2015-16SalaryCapAveragesThedataillustratedinthegraphs(showntotheright)showcasestheaveragemonetarycommitmentstoplayersbasedontheirdraftpositionandyearinschool.Withmanyofthemosttalentedplayersincollege(andhighschoolinsomeyears)enteringthedraftearly,itisnosurprisethathigherpaidathletesaremorelikelytohavespentlesstimeincollegeifanyatall.However,astheadjacentchartillustratesclearly,currentplayersthatwereselectedinthe2ndroundaverageahighersalarythanthosetakeinthelaterhalfofthe1stround.Althoughtherearefewer2ndroundpickscurrentlylistedonaNBAroster(46%less),theratioofunderclassmenselectedinpicks15-30v.the2ndroundis2.1to1.Thisshowcasesacorrelationbetweenundervaluedupperclassmen/internationalplayershavingtheskillsnecessarytoachievesuccessattheNBAlevelandahigheraveragesalarythanthosetakenearlierinthefirstround(picks15-30).

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KeyStatistics(2004-2015):AverageProductioninFirstFiveYearsbyDraftEntry

Year&Number:

TheJump 10AverageProductioninFirstFiveYearsbyDraftEntryYear&Number:

PerGame(2004-2015)

TheJump 11AverageProductioninFirstFiveYearsbyDraftEntryYear&Number:Per36Minutes(2004-2015)

TheJump 12AverageProductioninFirstFiveYearsbyDraftEntryYear&Number:Per100Possessions(2004-2015)

TheJump 13AverageProductioninFirstFiveYearsbyDraftEntryYear&Number:AdvancedMetrics(2004-2015)

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All-StarSelectionsByDraftPositionandDraftClass

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All-NBASelectionsByDraftPositionandDraftClass