Project Goal

• Quantify improved network efficiency and economic benefits due to changes in:– Access to Labor Pool– Access to Intermediate

Product Pool – Transportation Costs &

Delivered Prices

Financing and Return on Investment

• Effect of Federal, State, & Local Spending

• Bonding• Evaluate Alternative

Funding Scenarios: – Gas tax versus Sales Tax– Multiple Funding Sources – Sensitivity Analysis

Framework and Analysis Approach

Washington DOT Project Method

• Calibrate REMI Fiscal Module to 2004 Fiscal Year State Budget– “Overview of the Washington

Tax System: Part 1”, 2004

• Collect Travel Data: VMT, VHT, & Trips – By mode: Auto & Truck

• Bus and Passenger Train also available

– By time of day– Provided by Emme/2 simulations

• Modeling construction phase – Engineering– Construction– Long-term Maintenance

• Model funding “cocktail”– Local Gas Tax– “Nickel Gas Tax”: State Wide Gas

Tax– 2005 Partnership Tax: $0.095

State wide Gas Tax

3

Investment Alternatives: Interstate or State Road

• An interstate capacity improvement project that involved roadway widening, interchange, park and ride lots, and transit improvements

• A highway extension project that would connect two major state highways, filling the missing link

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5

Travel Model Results: Annual VHT, VMT, & Speed % Change from No Build Scenario from

1999 to 2030 - Interstate

6

Travel Model Results: Annual VHT, VMT, & Speed % Change from No Build Scenario from

1999 to 2030 – State Road

Interstate• 2003 to 2006 the first phase involves

engineering and planning services (increased demand for professional technical service) $168 Million

• 2007 to 2015 construction begins.– Total cost: $3.0 Billion

• Travel benefits begin phasing in from 2013• Beginning 2004, nickel tax budgeted for

Interstate equals $485 Million, which is allocated to an increase in consumer prices in gasoline for the 10-year period

• Local Gas Tax increase generates $1.741 Billion (2003- 2015)

• “2005 Partnership Funding Package”: By 2030 the tax will generate $972 Million

State Road• 2003 to 2006 the first phase involves

engineering and planning services (increased demand for professional technical service) $36 Million

• 2007 to 2015 construction begins.– Total cost: $960 Million

• Travel benefits begin phasing in from 2013• Beginning 2004, nickel tax budgeted for

State Road equals $35 million, which is allocated to an increase in consumer prices in gasoline for the 10-year period

• Local Gas Tax increase generates $913 Million (2003-2015)

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Timelines

Timeline for I-405 and SR-509

Planning andEngineering:2003 - 2006

Construction:2007 - 2015

Nickel Tax:2004 - 2030

2005 Transportation PartnershipFunding Package: 2005 – 2030Tax Phase-In from $0.03 to $0.095from 2005 t0 2009

Transportation ImprovementBenefits Accrue: 2015 - 2040

Local Gas Tax: 2003 - 2015

Spending and Agglomeration

Taxes and Financing

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Maintenance Schedules

FacilityPerio

dCost per Unit Units

Total Cost (thous

)

PCC Rehab

30$20,000 Per Lane

Mi43.3 $866.00

ACP Rehab

15$7,400 Per Lane

Mi30.8 $227.92

Maintenance

annual$11,500 Per Lane

Mi74.1 $852.15

Bridge 10 $0.34 Per SqFt 1,797,374 $611.11

Spec Br n/a $0.78 Per SqFt 0 $0.00

Tunnels n/a$132.50 Per Lane

Ft0 $0.00

Short Lids annual $0.17 Per SqFt 0 $0.00

FacilityPerio

dCost per Unit Units

Total Cost

(thous)

PCC Rehab 30 $20,000 Per Ln

Mi40.2 $804.00

ACP Rehab 15$7,400 Per Ln

Mi7.7 $56.98

Maintenance

annual$11,500 Per Ln

Mi47.9 $550.85

Bridge 10 $0.34 Per SF 628,269 $213.61

Spec Br n/a $0.78 Per SF 0 $0.00

Tunnels n/a $132.50 Per LF 0 $0.00

Short Lids annual $0.17 Per SF 274,400 $46.65

Interstate

State Road

Interstate State Road

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Funding Shares

Jobs in Thousands

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Investment Period

Transportation Benefits Accrue

Employment Distribution- Services

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GRP in Millions in Central Puget Sound Region

Major Spending and taxes begin

Sales in Millions in Central Puget Sound Region

Major Spending and taxes begin

Population in Thousands

Construction Phase

Phase InEngineering &Benefits

Labor Force in Thousands

Construction Phase

Phase InEngineering &Benefits

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Overall Results – Both Scenarios

 Interst

ateState Road

Employment 4,219 2,617

GSP 0.885 0.625

Total Sales 1.49 1.05

 Interst

ate State Road

Total GSP 31.8 22.5

Total Disposable Income 0.985 0.309

Total Sales 53.7 37.8

Totals from 2005 to 2040 - AggregateAverage Annual Growth 2005 to 2040

* All in Billions of 2004$

Economic Benefit Cost Ratio

Economic Benefit/Cost Conclusion

• Captures direct, induced, and intermediate benefits and costs

• Dynamic year by year estimates until 2040, impact analysis and forecast available to 2050

• GSP, which represents the economic growth and inherently includes the impacts of new business, income, and consumption reported in dollar terms.

• Costs, which include the total direct project financing, operation, and maintenance expenditures.

• Emissions and safety treated as regional disamenities, because the increase in VMT drives the EPA’s Mobile6 and Part5 estimates and FHWA’s accident rates.

• As the economic benefits accrue over the next few years, the overall benefit cost ratio by 2030 is 6.31 for State Road versus 2.73 for Interstate.

• State Road maintains a gap of approximately 2.3 times that of Interstate for most of the future years.

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