project commissioned by the dutch ministry of vrom to tno, emep-msce and the cce

J.-P.Hettelingh, M. Posch, J. Slootweg, Working Group on Effects, Geneva, 22-24 Sept, 2010

Revision of the heavy metal protocol: calculation of emissions, costs, depositions and

exceedances of four scenarios

Project commissioned by the Dutch ministry of VROM

to

TNO, EMEP-MSCE and the CCE


4 scenarios

Emissions (tonnes)

CLE 2010

FIHM 2020

Option 2 Option 1

Cd 332 235 189 159

Pb 5 908 3 977 3 112 2 380

Hg 255 280 219 213


Cadmium deposition

CLE2010 Option 1


Lead deposition

CLE2010 Option 1


Mercury deposition

CLE2010 Option 1


Critical loads, effects

Effect 1 Human health effects Drinking water

Effect 2 Human health effects Food quality

Effect 3 Ecotoxicological effects Terrestrial ecosystems

Effect 4 Ecotoxicological effects Aquatic ecosystems

Effect 5 [Hg] Human health effects Fish

Results of call for data 2005 + update in 200617 parties, ~ million ecosystems + EU-background database


Exceedance critical load of Cadmium

CLE2010 Option 1

Critical loads are exceeded in 0.6% (CLE2010), 0.4% (FIMH), 0.2% (Opt2), 0.1% (Opt1) of natural areas in the EMEP domain.


Exceedance critical load of lead

CLE2010 Option 1

Critical loads are exceeded in 20 % (CLE2010), 14 % (FIMH), 13 % (Opt2), 11 % (Opt1) of natural areas in the EMEP domain.


Exceedance critical load of mercury

CLE2010 Option 1

Critical loads are exceeded in about 71 % (CLE2010), 71 % (FIMH), 69 % (Opt2), 69 % (Opt1) of natural areas in the EMEP domain.


Uncertainty; assigning source of resuspension

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1.0

1.5

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Ser

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Cro

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non-EMEP

Re-suspension

Anthrop. (Scenario 1)

•Historic depositions•Fertiliser & manure•Mineral


Uncertainty of deposition and

environmental effects

• Resuspension of heavy metals is currently not assigned to sources of Parties to the Convention.

• It is unlikely that more knowledge on resuspension will stop exceedances by lead and mercury depositions from being widespread.

• Further analysis of environmental effects of heavy metal deposition including the treatment of resuspension, may need to include dynamic modelling.


Ecotoxogological effects

Critical loads: [HM]free,crit => Critical Load

Reversed path: Deposition => [HM] free (at steady state)

Dose-response function (RIVM):

[HM] free => effects on species


Thank you !

Emissions: [email protected]

Depositions: [email protected]

Exceedances: [email protected]

(CCE Status Report 2010, TNO report)


Objectives of the study

• Assess the impact of the revision of the heavy metal protocol with respect to :– Emissions, measures

• [email protected]

– Depositions• [email protected]

– Critical load exceedances• [email protected]

(CCE Status Report 2010, TNO report)


4 scenarios

• CLE2010: Current legislation in 2010• FIHM: Full implementation of HM protocol in 2020; • Option 1 of the amended HM protocol for dust plus

measures to abate mercury emissions (ECE/EB.AIR/WG.5/2010/10)

• Option 2 of the amended HM protocol for dust plus measure to abate mercury emissions (ECE/EB.AIR/WG.5/2010/10)


Cadmium sectoral emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 CLE 2020 CLE 2020 FIHM 2020 Opt1 2020 Opt2

Em

issi

on

(to

nn

es/y

r) 9 Waste

8 Non-Road transport

7 Road transport

6 Solvent use

5 Fossil fuel production

4 Industrial production

3 Industrial combustion

2 Residential combustion

1 Energy industries

29%

332

52%

Energy industries

Industrialcombustion

Residentialcombustion

Industrialproduction 43%


Lead emissions

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000


Em

iss

ion

(to

nn

es

/yr) 9 Waste


7 Road transport

6 Solvent use





1 Energy industries

5900

33% 60% 47%

Energy industries

Residentialcombustion

Industrialcombustion

Industrialproduction

Roadtransport


Mercury emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


Em

iss

ion

(to

nn

es

/yr) 9 Waste


7 Road transport

6 Solvent use





1 Energy industries

+10%

16% 14%

255

Energy industries


Exceedance critical concentration of mercury


Input from manure & fertiliser


(Re)Suspension ?


Final conclusions (1:2)

• FIMH leads to substantial reductions in EMEP Parties to the Convention, not part of EU27, except CHE and NOR. (Reduction of 120, 2253 and 12 tonnes for Cd, Pb and Hg respectively)

• Option 2 reduces a further 46 and 866 tonnes yr-1 of Cd and Pb. Option 2 is a realistic choice if the ambition is to revise the HM protocol on par with the IPPC BAT Directive

• Under Option 1, 76 and 1598 tonnes yr-1of Cd and Pb are reduced additional the FIMH. Therefore, substantial further reductions are achieved under Option 1.

• Hg emission reductions are roughly similar between Option 1 and option 2, mostly because gaseous Hg reductions don’t differ.


Conclusions (2:2)• High flow rates of of emissions of coal fired power plants lead to

substantial emissions of gaseous Hg, in spite of ELV < 0.03 mg Nm-3 (selective removal of gaseous Hg from PP flue gasses are not addressed in IPPC BAT),

• Amending the HM protocol according to Option 1 and 2 may bring about considerable reduction of PM2.5.emissions in Europe,

• Costs of revision of the HM protocol for UNECE Europe are estimated to be 11.6, 1.3 and 2.6 billion € for Option 1, Option 2 and the addition Hg emission reduction measures respectively,

• While the emission reductions are reflected in the lowering of critical load exceedances everywhere, still broad parts of Europe’s nature remain at risk,

• Uncertainty analysis requires further assessment of the state of implementation in CLE and of the treatment of resuspended deposition.


Call for data

• Critical loads for nitrogen and acidification

On EMEP 5 * 5 km grid– GIS operations, grid file will be available

• Empirical N loads– Additional and updated ranges and modifying

factors from Noordwijkerhoudt

• Next steps for soil + vegetation model-combinations, site specific

project commissioned by the dutch ministry of vrom to tno, emep-msce and the cce

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