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PROGRESS REPORT 2018

Multi Donor Trust Fund for Sustainable Urban Development

MDTF SUD Progress Report FY 2018

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Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................. 3

The MDTF SUD: Seven Years of Achievement .............................................................................................. 4

Economic Performance of African Cities ........................................................................................................ 6

Impact on policymaking ................................................................................................................................. 6

Informing World Bank operations ............................................................................................................... 7

Outputs ................................................................................................................................................................. 8

Some initial lessons ........................................................................................................................................ 14

Spatial Development of Cities ......................................................................................................................... 15

Making high-quality urban data publicly accessible ........................................................................... 15

Reaching policymakers ................................................................................................................................. 16

Policy research on urbanization in low-income countries ................................................................ 18

Urbanization Reviews ......................................................................................................................................... 20

Urbanization Reviews in FY18 ..................................................................................................................... 21

Operationalizing Urbanization Reviews .................................................................................................. 23

Financials for MDTF SUD.................................................................................................................................... 28


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Introduction As the Multi-Donor Trust Fund for Sustainable Urban Development (MDTF SUD) wraps up its final year, it closes the books on a substantial portfolio, with 84 grants made amounting to US$23.4 million between 2011 and 2018. This report covers fiscal year 2018 from July 1, 2017 through June 30, 2018, as well as progress to October 2018. Most grants have been closed, but dissemination and monitoring activities will continue through FY19. The MDTF SUD portfolio has been rich and timely. Recent global agendas explicitly recognize the role of cities as drivers of development, especially the 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). With urban as a cross-cutting theme across many of the SDGs, cities are playing a significant role in their implementation – a major shift from previous agendas. The MDTF has provided critical funding for analytical work and building evidence to support that shift. Its fundamental value proposition – filling data, knowledge and diagnostics gap to redefine urban form as a driver of productivity – is highly relevant to cities plagued by uncoordinated growth, poor planning, and weak capacity. The MDTF SUD has its roots in the 2009 World Development Report (WDR) Reshaping Economic Geography, which focused on the spatial dimensions of development processes and the role of cities and regions in promoting increased levels of prosperity in low- and medium-income countries. To help advise governments on issues raised in the report, the World Bank introduced a new analytic instrument: The Urbanization Review. The first Urbanization Review was published in 2011, and subsequent reviews as well as their operationalization became a main product line for the MDTF SUD. The Spatial Development of Cities research program, started in 2013 with funding from DFID, was also an offspring of the WDR. As the World Bank prepares to mark the tenth anniversary of the 2009 WDR, the MDTF SUD portfolio offers concrete examples of how the Bank with its clients and partners are transforming diagnostics and recommendations into policy and operations on the ground. The portfolio and its outputs also serve as a valuable source of data and knowledge to support the World Bank’s engagement framework in city and urban development. Achieving the potential of cities requires overcoming key analytical and institutional gaps through a value-chain approach that links recommendations and knowledge products with effective urban planning and bankable investment projects. The MDTF SUD has filled many of these gaps and offers a solid foundation that can guide future work.


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The MDTF SUD: Seven Years of Achievement The MDTF SUD was established in 2011 with three main objectives: To elevate urbanization to a national development priority in partner countries, improve the quality of urban policy and planning with better evidence, and catalyze the priority public and private investments needed for successful urbanization. Seven years later, the MDTF SUD has been an unqualified success. At a time when urbanization is central to many of the most pressing global challenges, it has been a major thought leader, making important progress on the evidence and analytical gaps that affect urban policy and planning. The partnership and resources provided enabled the World Bank to produce high-level papers on global urbanization trends and priorities, and it offered a framework for policy dialogue. It funded National Urbanization Reviews that delivered diagnostics on urban areas, which cover half of the world’s population. It also supported deep dives into specific cities and technical support on live policy questions, translating evidence into timely action. Significantly, the MDTF SUD was able to facilitate partnerships that allowed for scale of financing needed to provide transformative analytical support. The World Bank’s partnership with Norway – the foundation of the MDTF SUD – leveraged the Bank’s expertise to deepen engagement around critical themes including affordable housing, urban resilience, and slum upgrading. The partnership with Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) helped transform Urbanization Reviews into a seminal instrument for engaging with client countries around urbanization and city development, and then translate the analytics into investment and policy reforms. And the World Bank’s research partnership with UK Department for International Development (DFID) has produced advanced data collection and analytics, building evidence that has enabled policy dialogue where traditional methods could not. Elevating urbanization in national development agendas

MDTF SUD activities often served as the spark that ignited extensive, high-level discussions of the role of urbanization in national development, elevating its profile and importance in policymaking. In China, Ethiopia, and India among others, the MDTF SUD produced diagnostics and facilitated sustained, high-level dialogue that fed into national multi-year urban plans. In Afghanistan, the Urbanization Review team presented an urban discussion note that built on


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the Urbanization Review analysis to the country’s president, at his request. And in Malawi, urban development was added to the third national Growth and Development Strategy (2017-2020) as a direct result of the Urbanization Review findings. Improving urban policy through evidence

Over the past seven years, the MDTF SUD has made a significant contribution to the evidence base used for policymaking. It has financed comprehensive packages of data and analysis on urbanization challenges and opportunities in contexts where the evidence base was very limited, and where traditional means of data collection were insufficient. It has produced a robust body of data that includes satellite imagery, night‐time lights analysis, land classification layers for GIS, databases that integrate digitized maps, and specially commissioned geo‐referenced household surveys. These data sources allow policy makers to visualize evolving patterns of urbanization at street level and from a 10,000 feet perspective. The analytics financed by the MDTF SUD have impacted policy reforms on some of the most important constraints to productive, inclusive, sustainable cities. For example, it has contributed decisively to placing urbanization at the heart of the national development agenda in Ethiopia and influenced Vietnam’s Housing Law with a new focus on affordability. Catalyzing investment

In addition to improving policy, MDTF SUD activities have added value to large amounts of finance to address priority investments and improve the quality of lending. According to a 2016 independent evaluation of MDTF SUD, every US$1 allocated for Urbanization Reviews or their operationalization supported US$409 in financing. The secret of the MDTF SUD’s success

There are several reasons for the MDTF SUD’s success. Perhaps most significantly, it was able to facilitate partnerships that translated analytics into policy reform and implementation. Norway, SECO, and DFID all brought a package of complementary approaches and tools that, when combined with World Bank Country Program partnerships, allowed for scale of financing needed to provide transformative analytical support. In addition, the trust fund had core strengths in its design, and it was firmly policy oriented with a strong emphasis on policy dialogue and problem solving. It innovated new research methodologies to produce the most useful analytics and adopted new ways of doing business to achieve greater impact. It was able to orient and integrate analytics to leverage wider financing from the World Bank Group, donors, the private sector, and governments.


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Economic Performance of African Cities This World Bank-DFID partnership provides data, diagnostics, and technical assistance for cities in four African countries to help them identify constraints inhibiting economic development and undertake policy reforms. It was launched in February 2016 and came substantially to an end on June 30, 2018.

Through the Enhancing Economic Performance of African Cities program, the World Bank is supporting several African capital cities in enhancing economic competitiveness and job creation by providing assistance to the urban development and management process in Africa. It was designed to provide insights to local policy makers on the city economy, which policies and investments could improve economic growth and job creation, and to support them in planning concrete interventions. Over two-and-a-half years, the program has focused on creating an improved knowledge and analytic base on urban development and management for client governments and other stakeholders. It has also sought to provide them with technical and policy advice on key urban issues, along with the necessary informational and analytic base for the enhanced design and implementation of World Bank strategies and lending operations.

The Economic Performance of African Cities program has been active in four countries; Ethiopia (Addis Ababa); Uganda (Kampala); Cameroon (Douala, Kribi and Bamenda); and Nigeria (the Lagos-Ibadan region).

Additional funding was allocated in FY19 to disseminate the recommendations in Cameroon and Uganda, where the technical assistance has made the greatest impact to date.

Impact on policymaking

The Economic Performance of African Cities program is directly impacting sub-national policymaking in client countries through city-specific analysis, technical assistance and capacity development.

City-specific reports

These reports have generated new data and provided fresh analytical evidence to local and national policymakers. The next phase of the municipal development Program for Results (PforR) operations in Ethiopia and Uganda now include disbursement-linked indicators

Alongside the development knowledge products, the just-in-time technical assistance provided by the project has been successful in helping government counterparts plan relevant reforms and investments.


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focused on local economic development (LED); economic infrastructure investments; and capacity building components. These components were designed based on the recommendations of the reports on Addis Ababa, Kampala and a background report on Uganda’s secondary cities. Just-in-time technical assistance

Just-in-time technical assistance is helping facilitate reforms to improve sub-national business environment and LED outcomes. For example, the project’s technical assistance in Kampala has resulted in the finalization of a Greater Kampala Economic Development Strategy, which is currently awaiting Cabinet approval. The strategy is the first attempt by the city governments that make up the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA) to jointly implement investments across the metropolitan area. Capacity development

Capacity was developed through training and peer-to-peer knowledge exchanges, such as the Executive Development Program for Mayors, and country and regional workshops. The program supported over seven events to bring the subnational governments of the Greater Kampala area together to develop the Greater Kampala Economic Development Strategy, under the leadership of the National Planning Authority. Consultations were held for the GKMA economic planners and mayors, city government officials, and other stakeholders.

Informing World Bank operations The program’s research findings have directly informed the design of World Bank operations, leveraging millions of dollars of support to city governments for direct implementation. As noted above, recommendations from the Addis Ababa and Kampala policy reports were incorporated into the design of the next phase of PforR operations in Ethiopia and Uganda. In addition, the next phase of the World Bank’s infrastructure and institutional development investment project financing for Kampala city will be expanded to have a metropolitan focus, and there is a commitment that investments will be informed by the Greater Kampala Economic Development Strategy produced with the support of the African Cities program. The Cameroon Country Partnership Framework has also now included provisional financing for a new operation focused on city competitiveness.


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Outputs

Through the Economic Performance of African Cities program, analysis and research were conducted in four countries to serve as a basis for policy reports. Four city-specific reports have been produced, one for each country (Cameroon, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Uganda). The findings and policy recommendations have been shared with policy makers at validation workshops and high-level policy discussions in each country.

ADDIS ABABA

The report Enhancing Economic Development and Job Creation in Addis Ababa: The Role of the City Administration has been officially delivered to the Mayor of Addis Ababa, stakeholders in the city administration and Ministry of Urban Development and Housing. The report provides recommendations on the role of the city administration in economic development. It also recommends a focus on better access to land, simpler procedures for domestic and diaspora investors, more competitively targeted enterprise support, and increased capacity of the city administration. Addis Ababa will play a significant role in Ethiopia’s aspirations to reach middle-income status; the capital city contributes a third of Ethiopia’s manufacturing sector GDP and over half of urban employment. However, firms in Addis Ababa face major challenges due to lack of access to land, a difficult regulatory environment, and other issues that require government action. The government’s policy direction has focused less on Addis Ababa and more on secondary cities to pursue the objective of balanced regional growth. Current policy restrictions on access to land already seem to be leading to a declining share of employment in the manufacturing sectors in which Addis Ababa specializes, without a significant increase in the high value-added sectors policymakers seek for the city. Policymakers at the city and national level need to act quickly to create a conducive environment for the development and attraction of these higher tech sectors. Urgent action is also needed to encourage economic succession to provide sources of employment for citizens.

Addis Ababa’s urban footprint, with commercial/ industrial areas highlighted in purple. Source: Antos, Lozano-Gracia and Lall 2016


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Initial impact

The findings and recommendations on Addis Ababa have supported Bank policy dialogue with the Ministry of Urban Development and Housing and the Ministry of Finance on the importance of investing in Addis Ababa alongside Ethiopia’s other major cities. Together with a rapid assessment of six other cities in Ethiopia, the report’s findings have helped shape the design of the World Bank’s forthcoming US$600 million Urban Infrastructure and Institutional Development Program, which targets 117 city administrations in Ethiopia starting in FY19. A new disbursement-linked indicator on LED has been added to the project’s design to incentivize public private dialogue; provide support to micro-enterprises, particularly female-headed ones; and improve the capacity of one-stop-shop services to local firms. The economic infrastructure focus of the World Bank project has been expanded to include investment in tourist sites, serviced land for industry, and serviced premises and display centers for micro-enterprises. The capacity-building component aims to strengthen city officials’ LED skills, such as through diagnostics of local sectors with potential and physical planning for cities that host industrial parks. The Economic Performance of African Cities program has also supported the city administration to improve Addis Ababa’s performance on the two Doing Business indicators within its jurisdiction: Construction permits and registering property. For instance, the program supported the establishment of an e-governance system for completing construction permit procedures online, which is expected to reduce time taken to obtain permits and reduce avenues for corruption. KAMPALA

The report From Regulators to Enablers: The Role of City Governments in Economic Development of Greater Kampala was launched in March 2018 in the presence of the Rt. Hon Prime Minister of Uganda, Dr Ruhakana Rugunda. The focus was to provide Ugandan policymakers with economic analyses on the role of Greater Kampala in achieving Uganda’s economic goals outlined in Vision 2040, and actions needed to unlock the city’s economic potential. While Greater Kampala accounts for only about 10% of Uganda’s population, it generates a third of the country’s GDP and employs 46% of its formal workers.


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The report calls on the city governments that make up the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area to transition from regulators to enablers of economic development by investing in:

• Transport – Coordinated transport and economic infrastructure to improve mobility and increase access to markets

• Land and serviced premises – Strengthen land use management and access to serviced premises in partnership with large landowners

• Skills and business services – Partner with the private sector to provide support services to local firms.

In Greater Kampala, the most important impact of the program has been bringing subnational governments within the metropolitan area together to develop joint projects through a city strategy for the metropolitan area. The process of developing a city strategy has been important for two reasons:

• It has created a common platform that facilitated an unprecedented level of coordination among the Kampala Capital City Authority, local governments and central government ministries.

• The strategy provides city leaders with a clear road map for coordinated investments in priority areas (infrastructure, enterprise support, tourism development, environmental protection, and institutional support).

Influencing the World Bank USMID program

The findings and recommendations for Kampala have influenced the design of a forthcoming World Bank operation targeting 18 municipalities in Uganda. The US$300 million Uganda Support for Municipal Infrastructure and Institutional Development (USMID) program will have an LED component influenced by the findings of the research funded through the Economic Performance of African Cities program. They include:

• Infrastructure investments that alleviate constraints local firms face, particularly in access to land and serviced premises;

• Institutional reforms including regular dialogue between local governments and the private sector, one-stop-shops to simplify procedures and improve aftercare to local firms, and improving the transparency of tax collection; and

• Activating the role of local government in supporting local firms, including training and coaching of cooperatives as well as micro and small enterprises.


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Influencing policy on the informal sector

The publication of the World Bank report has also been influencing policy on the informal sector in Kampala. For example, the economic development strategy currently being finalized includes plans for project investments in markets, inclusive infrastructure, vending locations and serviced premises for informal enterprises, as well as for more dialogue between government and the informal sector. While 57% of jobs in Greater Kampala are informal, city government clients often have a difficult relationship with the informal sector. City officials accuse street vendors of disturbing traffic flow, outcompeting formal enterprises, and negatively impacting tax revenue collection. In recent years, city government practices have gained unwanted attention through unnecessarily cruel force such as brutal arrests and confiscation of property, which led to loss of livelihoods. About 70% of street vendors fall below the poverty line, meaning formalization of those businesses is unlikely to yield significant tax revenue because firms are below the tax threshold. As a result, the report recommends protecting the livelihoods of informal enterprises and promoting more dialogue between the informal sector and the city government. Only a small proportion of those businesses have potential for growth due to lack of customers and the profitability of their business model, which means more attention needs to be paid to enterprise support – particularly on market research and product upgrading to meet the demands of the customers. Finally, location matters for the informal sector, and transport infrastructure should protect the informal sector by providing access to markets and vending locations. From the Kampala report:


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Ongoing dissemination efforts

Remaining program funds were allocated in FY19 to disseminate the recommendations of the Kampala report and technical assistance to operationalize them. These activities include meetings and workshops with policymakers at various levels to reach a consensus on the institutional framework for implementing the Greater Kampala Economic Development Strategy. The funds are also supporting the National Planning Authority to produce a concept note for fundraising.

An e-governance platform for tax administration

The African Cities program supported the design of an e-governance platform for online tax administration for all municipalities in Uganda. It was based on the successful online tax administration platform implemented in Kampala city through the World Bank-funded Kampala Infrastructure and Institutional Development Program. The platform is also a response to the findings from interviews with local firms, which highlighted the level of harassment they face from city officials in assessing tax levels and collecting taxes. An information technology firm has been procured and will design a platform that benefits all Ugandan municipalities. CAMEROON

The Cameroon City Competitiveness Diagnostic report will be officially launched in October 2018 and delivered to the Minister of Urban Development and Housing and the Minister for Economy and Planning. The report – which focuses on the cities of Douala, Kribi and Bamenda – is raising awareness of the significant role that cities play in Cameroon’s development. As a highly urbanized African country, Cameroon’s future economic success will depend on the competitiveness of its cities. Cameroon has one of the highest rates of urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa; 56% of the population now lives in urban areas, forecasted to increase to 70% by 2050. The report has shown that cities in Cameroon are more productive than rural areas, and that people in cities have higher incomes and living standards. People are likely to continue arriving in cities given the real benefits that they receive there. Improving the livability and productivity of cities is critical so that they can cope with increases in population and effectively contribute to the country’s economic growth and job creation. The report emphasizes the need for partnership between local and national government and the private sector to invest in cities to alleviate the diseconomies of scale associated with population increases. Based on the program’s policy engagements, the Government of


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Cameroon has expressed interest in investments to improve city competitiveness in Douala and Yaoundé, with a focus on public transport investments. The report also finds that, while most constraints facing local firms relate to national level policy issues such as taxation and corruption, the infrastructure deficits are more local. The five top actions recommended for city governments are:

• Better regulation of public transport; • Urban mobility infrastructure investments; • Economic infrastructure investments; • Promoting and supporting local producers; and • Better land management and zoning enforcement.

At the national level, increasing the autonomy of city councils to invest in economic infrastructure and economic development will be important, among other measures. The project is also providing technical assistance to assess transport needs and the political economy of the transport system in Douala, in addition to providing support to clients to better understand the potential for subnational level infrastructure PPPs.

Ongoing dissemination efforts

The MDTF SUD has provided additional funding to design, publish and disseminate the Cameroon City Competitiveness Diagnostic. Support will also be provided to the three focus cities (Douala, Kribi and Bamenda) to disseminate the report’s findings and recommendations through a public-private dialogue forum in each city. NIGERIA

The Triangulating inclusive growth in Nigeria report was delivered to the Development Agenda for Western Nigeria Commission in June 2017. It is raising awareness on the importance of spatially coordinated infrastructure investments and complementary reforms. The objective is to inform about appropriate spatial development strategies and programs that could increase the competitiveness of the country’s economy, alongside promoting inclusive growth in the lagging regions. It focuses on transport corridors and the need for complementary reforms in land use planning and investment in other infrastructure to link local areas and firms with the main corridor. The report includes deep dives on various geopolitical zones in the country, including the wider Lagos area. It provides an analysis of sectoral specialization and comparative advantage, then assesses the economic geography of the country and how the pattern of


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industrial location today has evolved since it gained independence in 1960. The differences in economic performance are then analyzed at the state level to explain regional disparities and identify underperforming states with untapped potential, as well as the underlying causes.

Initial lessons

The most effective way to meet client needs is a mix of targeted research on specific issues combined with technical assistance and advice – not just on what to do, but also on how to get it done. City clients are especially interested in learning from the experience of other cities that faced similar challenges and succeeded in alleviating them. Collecting such evidence should be a key focus of future research and technical assistance. A clear understanding of the differing remits of cities – and what they can and cannot do – is critical to thinking through the implementation conclusions of policy and research. There is some fatigue among client government counterparts when it comes to studies, analytics and training, and they have a desire for more just-in-time assistance on specific practical problems. Financing quick-win interventions alongside studies is important. It is also advisable to provide project financing in addition to analytics and institutional support to avoid designing strategies and projects that have no financial or administrative capability.

WATCH: Enabling the Informal Sector in African Cities A learning session organized by the Economic Performance of African Cities program: https://worldbankgroup.sharepoint.com/portals/hub/_layouts/15/PointPublishing.aspx?app=video&p=p&chid=2754b90b-fb73-4dd9-9ba8-a85041e6ba14&vid=4c077b02-b4d6-41a3-9c82-2e1fa31f08d2


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Spatial Development of Cities The Spatial Development of Cities program has produced high-quality, impactful research that is attracting considerable international interest through publicity around flagship reports, urbanization reviews, and dissemination events.

This program, funded by DFID, comprises research on the spatial development of cities to support global information tools, stimulate academic debate, and disseminate insights into the role of cities in economic development with relevance for policy making. It has delivered high-quality, relevant research to inform decisionmakers. The insights from the core of the research program were summarized in three flagship reports – Africa’s Cities: Opening Doors to the World, Cities in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: A Story of Urban Growth and Decline and Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia: Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability – which generated substantial, widespread interest. The Spatial Development of Cities program was substantially completed during FY18, with the production of 25 research papers and dissemination activities for the Africa’s Cities report. There are several remaining research activities that will be finished in FY19, and efforts to disseminate and monitor how the research is being used will continue.

Making high-quality urban data publicly accessible

The Spatial Development of Cities program has funded datasets that provide high-quality, alternative data sources including satellite data, measuring aspects such as land use, and providing a proxy measure for economic activity. One of the most innovative aspects of the program is an accessibility-to-jobs analysis completed for five cities: Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Kigali, Nairobi, and Port-au-Prince. The analysis studied residential patterns within neighborhoods and access to jobs within a 60-minute commute, as well as the gains in accessibility under various land use scenarios. The data was collected early in the program, and recent focus has been on making that data publicly available. The Spatial team is making eight datasets public through the World Bank’s Development Data Hub (DDH), which was made accessible to the public in November 2017. Besides sharing and collecting data, the DDH platform provides information on how the datasets are used, such as downloads and views.


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This activity is a significant contribution. While there is extensive data on urbanization, it is often difficult for researchers to have direct access to existing datasets. The Spatial program helped develop the methodology and motivate the research team to make these and future datasets available as a global public good, so that they can be accessed by other researchers – providing added value that will continue after the project ends.

Reaching policymakers Policy relevance and research uptake is a key aspect of the program. Its research fed three flagship reports – Africa’s Cities: Opening Doors to the World, Cities in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: A Story of Urban Growth and Decline, Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia: Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability, and informed a fourth report, Greening Africa’s Cities. The three flagship reports, especially Africa’s Cities: Opening Doors to the World, are key instruments for advocating for increased policy attention to Africa’s cities inside the World Bank and among client governments and development partners. The Africa’s Cities publication alone has been downloaded over 36,000 times. In addition, the Spatial research was used to produce seven Urbanization Reviews (the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Tanzania) and two city reports on Addis Ababa and Kampala.

Most Downloaded and Cited Spatial Reports and Papers*

Most downloaded flagship report: Africa’s Cities: Opening Doors to the World with 36,219 Most cited flagship report: Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia with 60 Most downloaded research paper: “Building African Cities” by J. Vernon Henderson, Anthony J. Venables, Tanner Regan and Ilia Samsonov with 1,300 (C4D website) Most cited research paper: “Roads, Railroads and Decentralization of Chinese Cities” by Nathaniel Baum-Snow, Vernon Henderson, Matthew A. Turner, Qinghua Zhang and Loren Brandt with 192

*All numbers were taken on October 1, 2018 from the World Bank’s Open Knowledge Repository and Google Scholar unless otherwise stated.


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Dissemination and Reach for Flagship Spatial Reports

Africa’s Cities: Opening Doors to the World

Over 36,000 downloads as of October 1, 2018

Cited by 51 scholarly works

More than 2.6 million people reached via social media (Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn)

Widespread media coverage in Africa and globally, including CNBC Africa, Citiscope, Financial Times, Business Day and Classic Business Radio, Le Figaro, Jeune Afrique, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Devex, El Pais, Business Daily Africa, The Star (Kenya), and Cities Today

Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia: Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability

Over 33,000 downloads as of October 1, 2018

Cited by 60 scholarly works and mentioned in 5 blogs and 3 policy documents

Published in 4 Facebook posts and 652 tweets from 529 users with as many as 4,400,612 followers.

Featured in 6 news stories from 6 different outlets, including The Guardian and Bloomberg

Reached a high number of countries, including Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka

Cities in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: A Story of Urban Growth and Decline

Downloaded 144 times as of October 1, 2018

Good total engagement for the launch, with 1000+ likes and 68 shares in social media

Reached around 50,000 people through World Bank channels

All download numbers were taken on October 1, 2018 from the World Bank’s Open Knowledge Repository. Citations from Google Scholar.


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Policy research on urbanization in low-income countries A significant component of the Spatial Development of Cities research program is producing analytical papers to fill key knowledge gaps. The team worked in close collaboration with the London School of Economics (LSE) and Oxford University, benefitting from eminent external researchers such as Tony Venables, Vernon Henderson, and Paul Collier. While the research program investigates spatial and territorial development trajectories in different areas of the world, its primary focus is Sub-Saharan Africa, especially Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Overall, the program has produced high-quality, policy-relevant research on urbanization in low-income countries. Much of it has been published as working papers; 25 were produced this review period, bringing the total to 59. Of these, 22 have been published in journals and 37 as working papers. The research articles published in FY18 included “The Global Distribution of Economic Activity: Nature, History, and the Role of Trade” by J. Vernon Henderson, Tim Squires, Adam Storeygard, and David Weil, in the February 1, 2018 issue of the Quarterly Journal of Economics (Volume 133, Issue 1, p. 357–406). For FY19

Four research items are due to be completed in FY19, including a high-profile paper that is feeding into a major World Bank report on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The paper will inform the investment support the BRI and provide analytics to predict its impact on the location of activities and people within Central Asian countries. The Spatial program will provide funding to disseminate the paper and promote its findings. Other pending items focus on triangulating inclusive growth in Nigeria and corridors in India.

Outputs

The outputs listed below were completed in FY 2018 or have not yet been reported. All reports are available on the MDTF website (https://collaboration.worldbank.org/groups/research-partnership-for-sustainable-urban-development/overview ).

https://collaboration.worldbank.org/groups/research-partnership-for-sustainable-urban-development/overview

https://collaboration.worldbank.org/groups/research-partnership-for-sustainable-urban-development/overview


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Title Author(s) Description

Colonial Legacies: Shaping African Cities

Neeraj G. Baruah, J. Vernon Henderson and Cong Peng, London School of Economics

Institutions imposed during colonial rule continue to affect the spatial structure and urban interactions in African cities. Based on a sample of 318 cities across 28 countries, Anglophone origin cities sprawl and have less intense land use compared to Francophone ones.

Roads and Urban Growth

P. Brandily and F. Rauch

This paper studies the relationship between the road layout of a town or city and its population growth. It finds that cities characterized by low road density in the city center have experienced less population growth in recent decades.

Selection, Firm Turnover, and Productivity Growth: Do Emerging Cities Speed up the Process?

Patricia Jones, Taye Mengistae, Albert Zeufack

This paper identifies and estimates the impact of firm entry and exit on plant-level productivity in Ethiopia as part of a selection mechanism that might be driving aggregate productivity growth in cities.

Slums to Failed Estates? Evidence from a lottery for low-cost housing in Ethiopia

Simon Franklin A common policy response is to replace slums with the construction of large-scale housing sites on the outskirts of cities. This paper studies a lottery in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to explore if moving people to state-supplied housing is a good way for the state to intervene.

The Persistence of Agricultural Productivity Gaps

Katia Del Frari,

Douglas Gollin, and

David Lagakos

This paper looks at the evolution of agricultural productivity gaps (APGs) over time: How the gaps have evolved, links between changes in gaps and sectoral movements of labor, and what patterns in the data reveal about the sources of APGs. It finds that despite substantial cross-sectoral movements over time, there has been relatively little systematic change in APGs.

Urban footprints: The size and growth of African cities, 1975-2014

J. Bird and P. Brandily This paper studies the patterns of urban growth in Africa over a 40-year period, using a dataset of built-up land going back to 1975. It uses daytime satellite imagery to measure the physical expanse of cities.


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Urbanization Reviews Urbanization Reviews offer a framework for policymakers to make tough decisions on development in their cities by providing diagnostic tools to identify policy distortions and analyze investment priorities. They are the core diagnosis activities of the MDTF SUD and are primarily funded by SECO. To date, the MDTF SUD has supported 20 Urbanization Reviews and related urbanization work. The last review was completed in FY18: Morocco. Additional Urbanization Reviews have been undertaken with funding from other sources. The trust fund has also supported activities to operationalize recommendations in the Urbanization Reviews and strengthen project implementation in 20 countries. MAP 1 Completed Urbanization Reviews funded by the MDTF SUD


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MAP 2 Completed projects to operationalize Urbanization Reviews funded by the MDTF SUD

Urbanization Reviews in FY18

Making Urbanization work for Shared Prosperity in Morocco

The Morocco Urbanization Review presents Moroccan policy makers with different options to reconcile the country’s two objectives of economic growth and spatial equity, while taking into consideration the government’s institutional reforms agenda. The main message of the report is that managing urbanization and promoting spatial equity are not competing objectives. The review identified key challenges, including access to land; persistent pockets of poverty in rural and urban areas and rising youth unemployment; and factors limiting the circulation of people, goods and ideas, such as high transportation costs and low information and communication technology (ICT). Recommendations include empowering municipalities both financially and institutionally, strengthening the legal framework for inter-municipal cooperation, having municipalities take an increased role in territorial planning, and coordinated action from local and national governments to improve connectivity within cities.


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The Morocco Urbanization Review is being undertaken in two phases, with the first – the initial report – completed in FY 2018 but not yet formally published. The second phase will deliver 12 sectoral notes with more specific analysis. So far, the grant funding from MDTF SUD has helped facilitate various critical policy dialogues on decentralization and territorial development. The analytical work carried out during the first phase of the Urbanization Review has fed into preparation for the Morocco Municipal Support Program, a US $200 million Program for Results Financing (PforR) financed through a direct loan to the Municipality of Casablanca. The Municipal Support Program will support key reforms to increase the institutional and financial capacity of the Municipality of Casablanca, improve access to basic services and citizen accountability, and improve the business environment – showing how local governments can fulfill their new mandates as envisaged under the 2011 Constitution. It will be the World Bank’s first PforR loan to a municipality and the first Bank operation involving lending to a Moroccan municipality in over 20 years. The Moroccan government is considering the program as a potential pilot for a model that could be replicated to other cities.

Morocco Urbanization Review: Mountains of economic activity concentrated around urban areas (left), and compared with its Mediterranean neighbors (right)

Source: World Bank calculations based on data from Ghosh, T., Powell, R. L., Elvidge, C. D., Baugh, K. E., Sutton, P. C., & Anderson, S. (2010). Shedding Light on the Global Distribution of Economic Activity. The Open Geography Journal, 3, 148–161.


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Operationalizing Urbanization Reviews

Cambodia: Achieving the Potential of Urbanization Cambodia is just 21 percent urbanized, a low level for a country with a GDP of US $20 billion. Urban growth in the country has been uneven, with one large city (Phnom Penh), followed by relatively few secondary cities and many small towns. Phnom Penh dominates with an estimated population of over 2 million, while emerging secondary cities such as Siem Reap, Battambang, and Poipet have populations ranging from just over 100,000 to under 250,000. The MDTF SUD funded the production of a report titled Cambodia: Achieving the Potential of Urbanization, which analyzes urbanization in Cambodia and identifies key secondary cities with high economic potential. Rather than identifying lagging or leading regions, the analysis constructs an Economic Potential Index (EPI) to help shape discussions on the performance of districts and the factors that may be affecting economic potential. A more in-depth analysis of several cities identifies key bottlenecks to existing urbanization, such as limited infrastructure and weak institutional and financing capacity. The report makes several recommendations to successfully promote urbanization in Cambodia, including investing in sustainable infrastructure, strengthening institutions and financing, improving sustainable land use planning, and ensuring an inclusive approach to urbanization. Although data was limited, the analysis was able to draw upon global data sets to produce the EPI, which has been very useful for entering discussions with the Cambodian government on relevant geographic areas. The government has shown interest in following up the report with a lending project to implement key recommendations, and initial preparations are underway. Disseminating the Democratic Republic of Congo Urbanization Review

The MDTF SUD provided US$300,000 in funding for dissemination of the Democratic Republic of Congo Urbanization Review, with in-country events and publication as part of the World Bank’s Directions in Development series.

Map of Cambodia with Economic Potential Index category.


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MDTF SUD funds were used to hold a high-level workshop in Kinshasa on July 10, 2017. The event was co-chaired by Minister of Urban Development and Housing Joseph Koko Nyangi and attended by the Ministers for Decentralization and Civil Service, as well as government officials from the state and provincial levels, academics, technical organizations, and donors. The World Bank delegation was led by the DRC Country Director Moustapha Ahmadou Ndiaye and Sameh Naguib Wahba, Director for Urban and Territorial Development, Disaster Risk Management and Resilience. Grant funding also supported media events in the DRC to disseminate the Urbanization Review’s results to a larger audience in Africa. The team gave a seven-minute interview on the popular local TV show “Parlons-En,” which is expected to be broadcast in mid-October 2018. The results of the Urbanization Review are already being used to prepare a new urban and resilience operation in Kinshasa, and it is informing a new World Bank analytical project on territorial development in the DRC. MDTF SUD funding also supported preparation of Additional Financing (US$90 million in IDA funds) for the World Bank’s ongoing Urban Development Project, approved May 4, 2017. Land Use Planning and Disaster Risk Management in Honduras

This activity builds on the data, diagnostics, and findings from the Central American Urbanization Review to support preparatory activities for prioritized lending operations for countries in the region. In FY18, MDTF SUD grant funding supported six activities focused on Honduras. The two most significant were organization of a National Forum on Land Use Planning and Disaster Risk Management (DRM), which resulted in a declaration signed by 60 mayors; and technical assistance to the Municipality of the Central District of Honduras for the development of a Master Plan for DRM, climate change adaptation, and urban resilience. Since the forum in May, the National Plan Agency has requested additional support, and the World Bank team has received 22 requests from Honduran municipalities for technical assistance to elaborate local disaster risk management and land use plans.


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Overall, the grant has contributed to building capacity and increasing the visibility of relevant Honduran government agencies and municipalities, enhancing knowledge and raising awareness about the close relationship between urban resilience, land use planning and DRM. It has also fostered a shared understanding of the main challenges facing Honduras in these areas. The grant has also supported development of a policy dialogue between the World Bank and the Government of Honduras on urban development issues, particularly housing, territorial planning and DRM, in line with the recommendations of the Urbanization Review. Thanks to this dialogue, a concept note for an urban resilience investment project has been drafted and is currently under discussion. MDTF SUD funds are also supporting preparations for a project that targets local governance and competitiveness. In El Salvador, MDTF SUD grant funding supported preparation for the World Bank’s El Salvador Local Economic Resilience Project.

National Forum on Land Use Planning and Disaster Risk Management in Honduras

A follow-up activity to the Central America Urbanization Review, the National Forum on Land Use Planning and Disaster Risk Management in Honduras convened in May 2018. Sixty mayors shared their experiences in territorial planning and disaster risk management with over 200 participants. The Urbanization Review was shared at the event and very well received by the mayors, who welcomed its practical recommendations. Honduras is highly exposed to multiple natural hazards and disaster risks, and the mayors recognized that it is necessary to undertake strategic action for urban resilience. The Forum concluded with a joint declaration to advance urban resilience and construct more sustainable, secure municipalities signed by all 60 mayors.


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Support for the Kenya Urban Program

The MDTF SUD provided funding for key preparatory components of the US$300 million Kenya Urban Support Program, which builds on the findings of the Kenya Urbanization Review. The hybrid program aims to establish and strengthen urban institutions to deliver improved infrastructure and services in participating counties. The first window will be implemented as an Investment Project Financing, and two additional windows will be implemented as PforR. Together, these windows will support national and county governments in building the capacity to fulfill their urban development functions. MDTF SUD grant funds were used to produce several background studies and assessments to inform the preparatory process for the program. These included a technical assessment, the environmental and social systems assessment (ESSA), and the integrated fiduciary assessment report (IFAR). The grant also enabled high-level policy engagement on issues of public land management and housing. Diagnostics to support the Sri Lanka Lagging Regions Development Project This project involved producing an ecosystem diagnostic of the social enterprise landscape in Sri Lanka with a focus on the Northern and Eastern provinces, which lag the other provinces and have higher poverty levels. It was part of the Sri Lanka: Lagging Regions Development Project, which is a follow-up to the Sri Lanka Urbanization Review. A mix of secondary research and primary interactions with key stakeholders were used to complete the assessment. The primary interviews constituted a mix of in-depth personal interviews and an online survey of social entrepreneurs in Sri Lanka. The research team developed a database of over 100 social enterprises, and over 25 stakeholders, including government officials, finance providers and non-financial support providers to gather insights for the project. The findings shed light on the market landscape of the Northern and Eastern provinces in Sri Lanka, the need of social enterprises in the lagging regions, the social enterprise landscape, policy environment, and the financial and non-financial enablers ecosystem.


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Ukraine Urbanization Review methodology replicated for seminal Cities in Europe and Central Asia Report In FY18 the World Bank flagship report Cities in Europe and Central Asia, A shifting story of urban growth and decline was formally released. It was developed under the framework of the Spatial Development of Cities research program, and a draft version was covered in last year’s MDTF SUD Progress Report. The Ukraine Urbanization Review funded by the MDTF SUD was fundamental to the development of the Cities in Europe and Central Asia report, which replicated the methodology used in Ukraine and expanded it to 16 additional countries in the ECA region. Ukraine was the first country where the World Bank team conducted an in-depth review of the urbanization process, which brought additional evidence to the striking number of cities declining in population and how a few were growing, some very fast. The urban planning and municipal finance analysis conducted during the review also confirmed that both national systems (intergovernmental transfers) and local policies (urban planning) were not correctly taking the new reality of urban decline into consideration.


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Financials for MDTF SUD FINANCIAL SUMMARY (TF071544 / TF072529)

Inception to FY17 FY18

Cumulative Totals US$

CONTRIBUTIONS: 3,029,383 0 3,029,383 Norway MFA 9,800,000 0 9,800,000 Swiss SECO

10,660,524 847,463 11,507,988 U.K. DFID 23,489,907 847,463 24,337,371 TOTAL CONTRIBUTIONS

178,294 41,458 219,753 Investment Income

14,622 0 14,622 Other Receipts/ Adjustments 23,682,823 888,921 24,571,745 TOTAL RECEIPTS

18,880,297 3,363,230 22,243,527 Less: Project Disbursements

1,056,451 0 1,056,451 Less: Administrative Fees

3,746,075 (2,474,309) 1,271,767 FUND BALANCE (1,126,886) Less: Undisbursed Grant Amounts

144,880 FUNDS AVAILABLE

GRANT ALLOCATION SUMMARY

Inception to

FY17 FY18 Cumulative Totals US$ Grant Allocation

2,548,012 48,000 2,596,012 Urbanization Reviews 4,545,000 265,000 4,810,000 Operationalizing URs 2,210,000 0 2,210,000 Global Partnerships & Data 7,695,000 765,000 8,460,000 Spatial Development of Cities 1,875,000 770,000 2,645,000 Economic Performance of Cities 3,136,196 75,000 3,211,196 Other Analytic Work

22,009,208 1,923,000 23,932,208 TOTAL GRANT ALLOCATIONS (310,806) (250,989) (561,795)

Less: Allocation Reflows for closed projects

21,698,402 1,672,011 23,370,413 TOTAL NET GRANT ALLOCATIONS

18,880,297 3,363,230 22,243,527 Less: Grant Disbursements


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1,126,886 Undisbursed Grant Amounts GRANT ALLOCATIONS MADE DURING FY18 Country Project Amount

BUILDING THE EVIDENCE - URBANIZATION REVIEWS

Morocco Support to Morocco's Decentralization Framework 48,000 48,000

PROMOTING INTEGRATED URBAN DEVELOPMENT Central America Operationalizing lessons from Urban Review in Central

America 125,000

Cambodia Cambodia Urbanization - Secondary Cities 60,000 Sri Lanka Lagging Regions Endowments and Business

Environment 60,000

Indonesia Building Sustainable Indonesian Cities Through Integrated Planning Systems - allocation increase

20,000

265,000

RESEARCH PROGRAM ON SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT OF CITIES Sub-Saharan Africa Spatial Development of African Cities 125,000 Sub-Saharan Africa Productivity, Urbanization and Spatial Development 640,000

765,000 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF AFRICAN CITIES Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Performance of African Cities 690,000 Sub-Saharan Africa Dissemination and Outreach activities 80,000

770,000 OTHER ANALYTIC WORK Global MDTF Results Evaluation and Knowledge Sharing

(increase) 75,000

75,000

TOTAL ALLOCATIONS MADE - FY18 1,923,000


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GRANT DISBURSEMENTS – FY18 Country Project Grant

Amount FY18 Disb.

Cumulative Disb.FY18

BUILDING THE EVIDENCE - URBANIZATION REVIEWS

Côte d'Ivoire Côte d'Ivoire Urbanization Review 220,000 0 217,899 Ethiopia Ethiopia Urbanization Review 150,000 0 149,968 Senegal Senegal Spatial Development 150,000 0 143,521 Afghanistan Afghanistan Urbanization Review 150,000 0 149,756 China MDTF China's Urbanization 225,000 0 224,001 Malawi Malawi Urbanization Review 150,000 0 149,565 Vietnam Technical Assistance on Affordable

Housing 75,000 0 71,871

Mexico Mexico Urbanization Review 150,000 0 96,065 Colombia Strengthening the Sustainable and

Competitive Cities in Colombia 75,000 0 74,708

Ukraine Ukraine Urbanization Review 150,000 0 149,215 Tunisia Tunisia Urbanization Review:

Dissemination of UR findings and policy recommendations

75,000 0 74,906

Vietnam Affordable Housing in Vietnam 75,000 0 74,606 Morocco Support to Morocco's

Decentralization Framework 198,000 58,891 196,844

Burundi Burundi Urbanization and Economic Development

50,000 0 49,936

Central America Support to the Central America Urbanization Review

180,000 17,350 179,146

Philippines Philippines Urbanization Review 150,000 (11,977) 137,795 Ghana Ghana Urbanization Review 149,290 0 149,290 Turkey Sustainable Urban Development for

Vulnerable Populations in Turkey 74,871 0 74,871

Sri Lanka LK - Robust Urban Wetland Management for a Sustainable Metro Colombo

73,852 0 73,852

Argentina Cities Growth Dialogue 75,000 0 68,643 2,596,012 64,263 2,506,456

PROMOTING INTEGRATED URBAN DEVELOPMENT

Vietnam Preparation and Implementation Support to Results-based National Urban Development Program - Northern Mountains

300,000 0 276,618


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Tunisia Tunisia - Urbanization Review Operationalization

300,000 0 299,719

Turkey Turkey Sustainable Cities Project - Urbanization Review Implementation Phase

300,000 0 293,634

Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Land and Housing 300,000 0 105,823 China Transit Oriented Development:

Coordinating urban land use planning, financing and transport investments in China

300,000 0 298,163

Indonesia Building Sustainable Indonesian Cities Through Integrated Planning Systems

320,000 20,406 314,626

India India: Preparation of Madhya Pradesh Urban Development Project

275,000 0 273,958

Senegal Decentralization Support Program 300,000 (51) 294,782 Kenya Secondary Cities Program 300,000 30,080 297,622 Mexico Support to Inner-City Affordable

Housing Program 270,000 0 84,011

Tanzania Operationalizing Urbanization Reviews in Lending Project

300,000 1,856 299,902

Vietnam Preparation for Da Nang Connectivity Improvement and Urban Redevelopment Project

200,000 0 200,000

Ghana Accra Urban Resilience 150,000 0 148,924 Bolivia Supporting Sustainable Urbanization 100,000 0 84,786 Côte d’Ivoire Infrastructure Renewal 300,000 0 297,978 Democratic Republic of Congo

Second CFP for Sustainable Urban Development

300,000 41,107 299,945

India Support to Smart City and AMRUT program

250,000 0 249,651

Central America Operationalizing lessons from Urban Review in Central America

125,000 124,996 124,996

Cambodia Cambodia Urbanization - Secondary Cities

60,000 57,432 57,432

Sri Lanka Lagging Regions Endowments and Business Environment

60,000 59,969 59,969

4,810,000 335,796 4,362,541

GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS AND DATA

World Building the data foundations for measuring urbanization and city growth

2,210,000 0 2,200,426

2,210,000 0 2,200,426


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RESEARCH PROGRAM ON SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT OF CITIES

World Global Spatial Development of Cities 2,120,000 319,673 2,094,369 Sub-Saharan Africa

Spatial Development of African Cities 4,575,000 919,237 4,190,331

World Labor Markets and Rural –Urban Migration

150,000 0 149,545

South Asia Spatial Patterns of Development in SAR

150,000 0 149,372

South Asia Rural urban transformation in South Asia

100,000 0 99,966

ECA Region Addressing Shrinking Cities in ECA 100,000 18,345 99,977 Sub-Saharan Africa

Productivity, Urbanization and Spatial Dev

1,215,000 695,708 695,708

Sub-Saharan Africa

Dissemination, monitoring, and reporting

50,000 4,012 11,141

8,460,000 1,956,974 7,490,409

ENHANCING ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF AFRICAN CITIES

Sub-Saharan Africa

Economic Performance of African Cities

2,565,000 947,568 2,554,151

Sub-Saharan Africa

Dissemination, monitoring, and reporting

80,000 11,636 11,636

2,645,000 959,204 2,565,788

OTHER ANALYTIC WORK

World Results Monitoring, Evaluation, and Knowledge Sharing

275,000 46,992 181,711

Multiple Closed Grants, from FY12-FY15 2,936,196 0 2,936,196

3,211,196 46,992 3,117,907

23,932,208 3,363,230 22,243,527


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Cover photo: View of Yaoundé from Hilton hotel, Cameroon. Photo: Flore de Preneuf / World Bank. The MDTF SUD Progress Report for FY18 was produced and edited by Juliet Bunch, and the chapter on Economic Performance of African Cities written by Christiana Nikola Reichsthaler.

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