Progress in the scenario building process of Project 3.2

Stakeholders of the scenario writing process

-

Scenario Writing Team

3.2.

Other Team Members

3.2.

ECP NETWORK

EXTERNAL EXPERT PANEL

MONITORING COMMITTEE

Information flows in the scenario writing process

Scenario Writing

Future Research

Information Base

KTEN Model

MASST Model

Results of ESPON Projects

Communicationand

Consultation

European Territorial Cohesion

Index

Brainstorming workshop

Brussels, June 22-23

Scenario typology

• Baseline scenario

• Prospective scenarios

• Prospective policy scenarios

• Roll backward scenarios (desirable and undesirable)

1. Baseline scenario

Main driving forces

- ageing of population in Europe, especially in certain areas;- increasing role of transnational private actors;- concentration of financial services in a few world cities;- accelerating rate of diffusion of innovations; challenge to whole of society by the knowledge revolution;- increasing duality between rich and poor (social polarisation);- possible trading of environment for development, in particular in core East-European areas.

2. Prospective scenarios and prospective policy scenarios

a) Prospective scenarios

still to be identifiedRise in power of regions/hollowing out of nation states

still to be identifiedRise in nationalism and power of nation states

still to be identifiedMajor demographic changes:- Mass emigration of qualified people;- Strong natural population fall (epidemics; rise in death rate affecting older persons)- Major extension of life expectancy- Rapid rise in fertility rates- Halt in immigration to Europe- Massive immigration due to conflicts elsewhere

Possible spatial impactsMain drivers of change

- Disparity of access to basic services;- Further differentiation of settlement systems;- Generalisation of pollution, spatial spread of environmental problems;- Increased disparity between attractive regions and old industrial areas;- Rise in settlement around service centres, possibly differentiated by age or income;- Rural areas become recreational and consumption based; not productive; - Segregation of production and consumption sites at global level;- Urban increasingly poor, rural dominated by the wealthy

Spread of consumption-

based economies into larger regions

still to be identifiedRapid and sustained rise in energy

price

- Less use of public spaces;- Macro/pan-European segregation;- More dispersal of communities;- More gated communities and rise in ‘no-go’ areas;- Rise in short-distance migration;- Rise in number of refugees;- Rise in surveillance;- Spatial apartheid of services etc.;- Spatial segregation/’Ghettoisation’

Increase in ethnic/cultural/

religious intolerance

- Change in real estate value;- Counter-urbanisation and sub-urbanisation;- Less commuters and decline of city centres;- Move from North to South to more friendly

climates;- Seasonal movements of populations;- Social spatial isolation and erosion of social

cohesion;- Wider settlements, divided by income/capital

Increase in home-working

- Concentration of production activities;- Improved air quality;- Increase in mobility;- Larger transport networks increasing congestion;- Longer commuting distances;- More dispersed settlement patterns;- Revitalisation of urban areas due to lower pollution levels;- Spatial fragmentation of the production process;- Urban sprawl

Transport becomes environmentally friendly

through new non polluting technologies

still to be identifiedDesertification of cities due to terror risks

still to be identifiedLarge-scale natural or man-caused hazards

(major water pollution; nuclear accident/disaster; flooding on an extensive scale; large-scale coastal

erosion etc;)

b) Prospective policy scenarios

- More decentralised energy production - New spatial patterns and restrictions (windmill parcs), also off-shore (coastal areas)- Manure problem will be solved (biogas)- Bio fuels as a chance for farmers and rural areas (diversification) - Conflicts with other kinds of land-useSmaller production plants and other risks

Stimulation of renewable energy production

- Building of transport networks will become less urgent- Transport modalities will change: transport by trucks and airplanes will decrease; public transport and transport by ships will increase- Markets will become more regional and local- More polycentric development and more monocentric development (concentration in larger cities)- Land-use will change, e.g. land used for food production

Full integration of ecological aspects in prices of products and

services

still to be identifiedPromotion of environmentally friendly transport modes (increase in use of high-speed trains; rise in inland water transportation etc.)

Possible spatial impactsMain fields of policy change

- Changes in spatial organisation of service provision; More specialisation of places and regions- Further collapse of Central Place Theory;- Land use deregulation;- More disparities between regions and countries; spaces and subspaces with most density of business benefit most (core areas)- Rise in movement of industries, more relocation; many old industrial regions and rural areas come into crises; labour intensive regions will become endangered- Spatial polarisation associated to urban sprawl- Agricultural production moves into the periphery

Further liberalisation of exchanges and increased de-regulation of the

market

- More spread of economic growth - Metropolitan areas benefit most because they are situated along transport corridors- Decline of peripheral areas More environmental damage

Integration of European space due to accelerated building of transport

infrastructure

a) Desirable roll-backward scenarios

3. Roll-backward scenarios

- Massive investment in secondary public transport networks;- Expansion of high speed train networks;- Multimodal integrated public transport;- Making the use of private cars unattractive;- More R&D on environmentally friendly transport technologies; application of cars using non-fossil fuel on a wider scale;- New organisation of work with high share of home working/ Free access to IT/Virtual access to services- More localised and less segmented production processes

Reduced traffic flows and widespread use of environmentally friendly transport modes and systems

- Increase attractiveness of peripheral areas to large enterprises;- Enhancement of indigenous economies of peripheral areas;- Investment in public services in peripheral areas;- Reversal of the privatisation process;- Improved governance and increased role of local communities in decision-making.

More polycentric settlement structures at various scales / Equal access to jobs, goods and services across the EU/ High level of cohesion attained

Main necessary drivers of changeDesirable long-term spatial images

- Accessibility improvements for centre-rural hinterland;

- Re-opening of local facilities and public services

- Integrated and harmonised regional plans/ Better territorial governance

- Improved public transport system;

- Increased and improved access to culture

Strong and efficient urban-

rural integration

- Making the use of private cars unattractive;

- Improved public transport systems More compact urban centres

and areas

- More investment in socio-cultural values and new educational principles;- Environmentally friendly agriculture; incentives for local, organic production;- Conservation of rural space;- Limited use of non-renewable resources;- Public investment in renewable energy;- Enforcement of the Kyoto agreement;- Application of the principle of polluter pays

Enhanced territorial

expression of cultural

diversity/ Low level of

environmental damage and

pressure

b) Undesirable roll-backward scenarios

- Growing intolerance and weak integration policies;- Uncontrolled immigration;- Strong liberalism in all sectors;- Generalisation of gated communities generating strong feelings of social injustice

Conflicting European society with increasing nationalism, religious

tensions, strong disparities between rich and poor in cities

- Growing tensions between EU Member States concerning policies related to convergence criteria, EU further enlargement, structural policies, foreign relations etc.- Radicalisation of political situations in a large number of Member States;- External events (military conflicts, strong uncontrolled immigration etc.)- World economic collapse

Disintegrated EU institutions including single currency. Major policies have been re-nationalised

- Weak level of governance in regional policies;- Increasing liberalisation;- Public sector chaos and poor public services;- Increasing out-migration from less developed regions;- Export of polluting activities towards peripheral areas.

EU territory with much stronger regional disparities (economy, demography, environment and

quality of life etc.)

Main necessary drivers of changeUndesirable long-term spatial images

MASST MODEL(Macroeconomic, Sectoral,

Social and Territorial)

State of the art in the MASST model

MASST is an econometric model estimating the determinants of local development.

Local development is divided between two components, the national component and the local differential shift component. The Masst model estimates both of them.

The structure of the model is represented in the following chart:

Conceptual underpinnings

Socio-structural changes

New technological paradigms

Policies

Scenario elements

Enlargement Structuralmacroeconomic

elements

Economic driving forces

Territorial filters:

geographical position and productive

structure

Territorial context

Regional differetial component

National component

Outcomes

Regional development and imbalance

Economic effects

Conjunturalmacroeconomic

elements

Submodel 1: National component Submodel 2: Regional differential component

Exchange rate movements

€ / $, national currencies

Internal consumption

Δ Efficiency wage (inflation and

productivity increases)

Exports

Macroeconomic elements

Interest rates

Internal investments

Foreign direct investments

Differential shift

Regional differential component

Social and human capital policies

Infrastructural policies

Innovative policies

Structural policies

PAC

Social capital

Human capital

Infrastructural level

Innovative capacity

Regional structural elements

Capital / labour ratio

Population

Macroeconomic policies

Territorial context

Geographical position

Urban structure

Productive structure

National component

National growth - attractiveness - economic success

Regional growth - attractiveness - economic success - spatial spillovers

Regional equity disparities

Final economic effect

Public expenditure

Imports

Accessibility

Scenario Sketches

Baseline Scenario

Two sketches with rather similar character:

long-term trend evolution of the European territory, focussing on aspects of the European periphery

- EUROREG (Warsaw)

- Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Halle)

Prospective Thematic Scenarios

Roll forward scenarios emphasising the long-term evolution in one specific field and its territorial impacts:

Two scenario sketches:

- Spatial impacts of climate change (IGEAT)

- Europe in a context of high energy prices (Tersyn)

Prospective Policy Scenarios

Prospective policy scenarios aim at highlighting the territorial impacts of changes in public policies

Four scenario sketches combining two main policy variables (Dr. Illes and colleagues; Budapest):

- Cohesion and structural policies of the EU and national governments;

- Policies concerning the liberalisation and mobility of labour and capital

Roll backward Scenarios

Starting from a final long-term image and investigating the processes and policies likely to lead to it.

Two desirable scenarios sketches (NISR The Hague and National Technical University Athens): presenting a long-term image similar to the achievement of ESDP principles and assuming substantial changes in public policies

One undesirable scenario sketch (NISR The Hague) presenting a chaotic final image reflecting inefficient and contradictory policies