productivity, environment, climate and food security –how can agriculture meet the challenges?
TRANSCRIPT
Hans R. HerrenPresident www.millennium-institute.org
President www.biovision.ch Co-Chair IAASTD www.agassessment.org
Coordinator UNEP GER Agriculture Chapter
Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (SSNC)
Royal Swedish Academy for Forestry and Agriculture, 8 September 2011
Productivity, environment, climate and food security –
how can agriculture meet the challenges?
Productivity, environment, climate and food security –
how can agriculture meet the challenges?
…by developing and implementing new policies
informed by the key findings and options for action
emanating from the IAASTD report
“Agriculture at a Crossroads”
K
The IAASTD Reports (www.agassessment.org)
Co-Chairs: Hans R Herren & Judy WhakunguDirector: Bob Watson
Multi-stakeholder: 400 authors, 52 countries
Multi-disciplinary
Multi-locational: Global / sub-Global Reports
IAASTD Development and Sustainability Goals (=MDG =
the 4 main areas where agriculture needs to transition):
• Eradicating of Hunger and Poverty• Improving Rural Livelihoods• Improving Nutrition and Human Health• Facilitating Environmentally, Socially, Equitable and
Economically Sustainable Development
…under the challenges of:
• Climate Change• Population and Demand Growth• Growing inequity• Shrinking Natural Resources / Energy
The IAASTD
David Tilman et al. Science 2001
Agriculture a main problem: the green revolution
Bases of green revolution is unsustainable (E-S-E)
Source: Stern Review
Understanding the consequences: Climate change
Understanding the consequences: CC and water / temperature stresses
-50% -15%0%
+35%+15%2080
Understanding the consequences: overproduction, conversion and wastage
Main conclusions of the IAASTD
“a fundamental shift in AKST and the linked agri-food system policies, institutions, capacity development and investments”
Paradigm change: Transition to sustainable / organic /ecological agri - culture
i.e., addresses multifunctionality and resilience
needs of the small-scale and family farms (social & economic: equity issue, farmer status, land ownership, empowerment, women), quality job creation;
• systemic and holistic approach (basic ecological principles); treat cause not symptoms; is part of the solution to hunger, poverty, health, CC
Challenges and options for action (IAASTD NAE)
IAASTD Agriculture at a Crossroads 2009“Agriculture for Development” (WDR 08, World Bank)
“The Environmental Food Crisis” 2009(UNEP)
“A Viable Food Future” 2010 (The Development Fund)
“Innovations that Nourish the Planet”(SOW 11, World Watch Institute)
“Securing Future Food” 2010 (UK Food Group)
“The future of food and Farming”2011 (UK Foresight)
“Green Economy Report” 2011(UNEP)
“Save and Grow” FAO 2011
Agriculture the main solution: Multifunctionality paradigm for sustainable development
sustainable
viable
livableequitable
SustainableUn-sustainable
Low
pro
ducti
vity
Hig
h p
rodu
ctivi
tyAgriculture the main solution: ..via a transition to sustainable, organic, agroecological, resilient, equitable agriculture
Agroecology and Sustainable Development
Conventional System Conversion Agroecology
Socio-economics
Cultural
Legislation (policies)
Solidarius certification
Fair market Commercialization
Extension Methodologies
Alternative inputs Participatory research
Farmer to farmer network
Institutional partnerships
Environmental
Slide courtesy M. Altieri
Agroecology is the study of the interactions between plants, animals, humans and the environment within agricultural systems. Consequently, agroecology is inherently multidisciplinary, including factors from agronomy, ecology, sociology and economics. In this case, the “-ecology” portion of "agroecology is defined broadly to include social, cultural, and economic contexts as well (Dalgaard et al.2003)
Agroecology
Organic Conventional
The Green way ahead: Organic agriculture (+resilience)
In 1995 –drought year
Green way ahead: ……..using the gifts of nature, habitat management
It isimperative toput theanimals backon farm:sanitation,health, carbon cycle,sustainability
The Green way ahead: Animals on farm
The Green way ahead: SRI: System of rice (and other crops) intensification
Green way ahead: …no chemicals? more numbers 1:242 cost:benefits
Green way ahead: Biotechnology and genetic engineering
Green way ahead: genetic engineering: less choices, diversity..
David Quist, 2010 pers com
Encouraging a wider genetic base in agriculture…trees, fruits, grains, vegetables, lost crops, animals
for nutrition, cultural diversity, incomes, pest control, resilience to climate change
The Green way ahead: More diversity (plants and animals)
The Green way ahead: Appropriate mechanization
• Improve and expand extension services (ICT)
• Introduce capacity building (ICT)
• Agriculture is very localized = local solutions
Example: Biovision’s Farmer Communication Program
Green way ahead: is knowledge intensive
Global investments across sectors (1% and 2% of GDP); 0.2% and 0.32% of GDP invested in AG and fisheries (50-50).- Pre harvest losses (training activities and effective pesticide (emphasis on natural/bio products) use)- Ag management practices (costs to transition from till to no till agriculture, training, access to small mechanization)- R&D (research on crop improvement, soil science and agronomy, appropriate mechanization, and more)- Food processing (better storage and processing in rural areas)
In addition, need to invest in the “enabling conditions” (infrastructure, institutions, governance)
The forward looking scenarios: Analysis and investments
Global Warming
Energy Sector
Human Population
Food Production
Fresh Water
Migration
Health Catastrophes
Land Loss & Flooding
PlantCalories
MeatCalories
PlantConsumption
MeatConsumption
MeatProduction
PlantProduction
SoilCapacity Soil Nutient
ConsumptionSoil NutrientProductioin
Plant Calories forMeat Production
S
S
HumanPopulation
HumanBirths
HumanDeaths
Plant Calories forHuman Use
S
S
Calories perCapita
O
S
Life SustainingCalories per Capita
CalorieGapHabitat
Conversion
Acres inAgriculture
O
S
S
S
S
S
S
FertilizerDemand
S
S
O
Petroleum Use forFertilizer
S
S ToxicResidue
S
O
R
OPopulation
Density
Migration
Pursuit of 1st WorldFood Mix
Exposure to a HigherStandard of Living
MethaneProduction
S
S
S
S
S
S
WaterDemand
S
FaminesO
S
RB
B
S
Irrigation
SoilSalinization
S
S
O
S
BiofuelsProduction
Land Loss
GlobalTemperature
Variation in RainfallPattern
Droughts
S
S
S
O
O
O
The forward looking scenarios: Its all connected…….system dynamics
Investing between 0.1% and 0.16% of total GDP ($83-$141 Billion) / yearAgriculture in a Green Economy (UNEP Report – 2011)
The way aheadRio+20
What are the optionswhen “Business as usual” is not an option?
When is: NOW
We have the key findings and options for action from the IAASTD report series…
Now is time to implement themunderstand and remove the roadblocks, expand the multistakeholder process and link it to other policy relevant processes (CFS, etc)
The way ahead
You cannot solve the problem with the same kind of thinking that created the problem. Albert Einstein
Thank [email protected]