production and use of biomass : high volumes for whom? · source: imhoff ml, bounoua l. (2006),...

Production and use of biomass:

High volumes for whom?

Seminar „Biomass for energy use“

Belgian Federal Council for Sustainable Development

3 October 2007, Brussel, Belgium

Dipl. Forest, M.Sc. Justus von Geibler

Research Group Sustainable Production and Consumption

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

1FRDO-CFDD Seminar „Biomass for Energy Use“, 03.10.2007 Justus von Geibler, Wuppertal Institute

Production and use of biomass

Introduction

Overview

Production, trends and potentials

International supply pattern

Towards a sustainable biomass strategy


Mission: Applied Sustainability Research

! The Wuppertal Insitute explores and

develops models, strategies and

instruments to support a sustainable

development at local, national and

international levels.

! Sustainability research at the WI

focuses on ecology and its relation to

economy and society.

! Our research analyses and initiates

technological and social innovations

that decouple economic growth from

nature use and wealth.

IntroductionWuppertal Institute


IntroductionOverall Challenge: delinking

Use of

nature

Quality

of life

Economic

growth

4 810

Efficient

production

Satisfying

consump-

tion

Sustainable

production

and

consumption

Potential of

biomass?



Introduction

Overview





Global biomass productionDistribution of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP)

Source: Imhoff ML, Bounoua L. (2006), based on data collected between 1982-98

Estimation for the annual global NPP: 56.8 Pg of elemental carbon (56.8*1015g)


Global biomass demandHuman approriated terrestrial net primary production (HANPP)


Estimation of annual global NPP demand: 11.5 Pg of elemental carbon.


Global biomass production and useAppropriated terrestrial net primary production by humans


Humans consume globally 20% of Earth's net primary production on land.

Regional figures vary 6% to over 70%.


Biomass productsWorld biomass production and international trade in 2004

Sources: FAOSTAT 2006; Indexmundi 2006;

Rosillo-Calle et al., 2006; Worldwatch Institute, 2006; Dahl et al., 2005, Heinimoe et al. 2007. cit. in ibid and own caluculations.

Mill. tons


BioenergyGlobal energy sources in 2002

Source: World Energy Assessment 2004

World’s total primary energy demand in 2002 has been 433 Exajoule.


BioenergyRenewable energy as share of global energy use in 2004

Source: REN21 (2005)

Traditional

biomass

Modern biomass and biofuels

Traditional

biomass Biodiesel

Ethanol

Hotwater and heat

Electricity


Trends in biofuel productionFuel ethanol production in 2000 and 2005 (billion liters)

Figure 8: Fuel Ethanol Production, 2000 and 2005 (billion liters/year)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

World Brazil United States China EU Canada

2000 2005

Source: REN21 Renewables Global Status

Report 2006 Update, www.ren21.net


Trends in biofuel productionGlobal biodiesel production from 2000 to 2005 (billion liters)Figure 7: Biodiesel Production, 2000-2005 (billion liters/year)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: REN21 Renewables Global Status Report 2006 Update, www.ren21.net


Biomass Uses in the SocietyCompeting Biomass Uses


Potential of bioenergyProduction potentials for selected biomass types, 2050

Biomass Type Bioenergy Potential

(exajoules) Remarks

Energy Crop Farming (cur-rent farm land

0–700 (100–300 is

more average)

Dependent on potential land availability, productivity, adaptation of intensive agricultural production systems

Energy Crop Farming (mar-ginal lands)

60–150 (or possibly 0)

Dependent on land area productivity, economics or competition with food production.

Agricultural Residues

15–70 Dependent on yield/product ratios, agricultural land area, production system (extensive or intensive systems)

Organic Wastes

5–50+ Strongly dependent on economic development and consumption, use for biomaterials.

Animal Dung 5–55

(or possibly 0) Utilization (collection) over longer term is uncertain.

Forest Residues

30–150 (or possibly 0)

Dependend on processing residues, sustainable forest management, energy potential of world forests is unclear.

Biomaterials Minus 40–150 (or possibly 0)

Supply would come from energy crop farming (0.2– 0.8 Gha) if forests are unable to meet this demand.

Total 40–1,100

(250–500 is more average)

Depends on perspective of scenario (pessimistic or optimistic), More average range is most realistic in a world aiming for large-scale bioenergy use .

Source: adopted from Faaij et. al (2006)


Potential of bioenergyPotentials for different agricultural management changes, 2050

Source: Seemts et al. 2004



Introduction

Overview





Biomass supplyGlobal palm oil import according to import countries (1000 tons)

Other

Former USSR

Kenya

Saudi Arabia

South Africa

Indonesia

Bangladesh

USA

Myanmar

South Korea

Turkey

Malaysia

Japan

India

Egypt

Pakistan

EU

China


Biomass supplyPalm oil trade flows in 2004 (1000 tons)

Main palm oil trade flows 2004 in 1000 t (flows above 100.000 t)

Source: UNCTAD Secretariat based on COMTRADE-Data (UNCTAD 2006)

Malaysia

2005/06Production14,96 mtoe

FAOSTAT, USDA 2006,MPOB 2006

About 45 % ofworld production

Main Export to

EU and India

Domestic Use

biofuel

European Union

Consumption2005/2006in mtoe

Total 4,9

Food 3,8

Biodiesel 0,27

CHPP 1,0

(Biokraftstoffverband 2007)

Major consumerof Palm Oil


Biomass supplyPalm oil trade flows in 2004 (1000 tons)

Energetic Use of Plant Oils in CHPP in Germany 2003 - 2007

An

nu

al

ue

s i

n 1

00

0 t

/a

Palm Oil

PME/ Rapeseed Oil

Source: IE 2003-2007 and own estimation

Palm Oil

2004: 0 %

2007: 83 %

2005

Plant Oil CHPP

3% share

+ 494 %

+ 197 %


Biomass supplyEffects of Land use and land cover changes

Indonesia:

- applications for expansion:5 mio ha -> 25 mio ha

- oil palm plantations oftenon cleared forest land

- drainage of swamps leadsto oxidization of peat carbon

- 1 tonne of palm oil on peatland accounts for 10 to 30 tonnes of CO2

- current total peatland CO2 emission of 2000 Mt/y equals almost 8% of global

emissions from fossil fuel burning

- over 90% originates from Indonesia, which puts the country in 3rd place (afterthe USA and China) in the global CO2 emission ranking

Sources: Bringezu et al. 2007 and Hooijer et al. 2006


Volume of biomass useBiomass Share on Total Material Requirement (TMR) in Germany

TMR: 6090 million tonnes Biomass share: 13 percent

Germany in 2004

Source: H. Schuetz, S. Bringezu, 2007, Wuppertal Institute, personal communication.

Tonnes per capita


Biomass sources and usesA number of competing options

Food

& Feed Renewable

energy Renewable materials

Raw material e.g. wheat

Base material e.g. starch

Domestic primary production

Import

Domestic crop area Foreign crop area

Source: Bringezu et al. 2007


Global land requirements of GermanyScenario for bioenergy and biomaterial from agriculture

Globaler Flächenbedarf für Nawaro in 1000 Hektar - BAU I

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

2004 2005 2010 2020 2030

Färberpflanzen

Arzneipflanzen

Flachs und Hanf

Zucker stofflich

Stärke stofflich

Schmier- und Hilfsstoffe (Nawaro)

Pflanzliche Öle und Fette stofflich

Biogas zur Verstromung

Pflanzenöle zur Verstromung

Bio-Wasserstoff

Biogas als Kraftstoff

BtL

Bioethanol

Pflanzenöl als Direktkraftstoff

Biodiesel

39%36%39%38%41%Import quota

22%19%14%30%40%Share of material use of renwables

20302020201020052004

Global Land Use for Renewable Agricultural Resources in 1000 hectar - BAU I

Dye plants

Medicinal plants

Flax and hemp

Sugar material

Starch material

Lubricants and auxiliary materials

Vegetable oils and fats material

Biogas electricty

Vegetable oil electricity

Bio-Hydrgen

Biogas fuel

BtL

Bioethanol

Pure plant oil fuel

Biodiesel

Source: Bringezu et al. 2007, preliminary results from the project „Sustainable land use and renewables“ for the Federal Environmental Agency

.


Business-as-usual will expand global land use beyond per capita availability of

intensively cultivated land

Global land requirement of GermansScenario for bioenergy, biomaterial and food from agriculture

Source: Bringezu et al. 2007, preliminary results from the project „Sustainable land use and renewables“ for the Federal Environmental Agency

.


Source: Steger (2005)

Most important goods related to the net land requirements of the

EU 15 trade of agricultural goods

Global land requirements of EuropeEU 15 Trade of agricultural goods (1990-2000)


Source: Bringezu 2005 / Steger 2005

Imported

Domestic

Natural

grass land

(„Permanent

pastures“)

Arable

land and

permanent

cultures

Global land requirements of EuropeEU 15 Trade of agricultural goods (2000 and 2030)

1000 m2/cap

2000 2030

If the EU uses 18% biofuels in 2030, it will

have fuelled up nearly total of its „fair share“

of all natural grasslands and savannas


Bioenergy exportThe case of Brasil

Brasil:

- ongoing enlargement of sugar cane plantations: 6 -> 9 mio ha

- planned additional area for soybeans: 100 mio ha

- expansion at the expense of savannas (Cerrado)and tropical forests

- In case of high fossil fuel pricesexport only pays after domestic demandfor biofuels has been fulfilled.



„Opportunity to reconcile conflicting dynamics by balancing domesticand foreign share of biofuel supply“

The Commission expects that

! price dynamics of crops can be mitigated,

! the major share of biofuels will come from domestic sources,

! the developing countries will get the chance to enter the EU marketfor biofuel products,

! the deforestation and habitat destruction will be prevented.

Own impact assessment:

"there will be increasing pressures on eco-sensitive areas, notablyrainforests, where several millions of hectares could be transformed intoplantations."

The „balanced approach“ of the EUas defined in the biomass action plan

?

Sources: European Commision COM (2005) 628; SEC (2006) 142


A significant reduction of animal based food could provide room for the

production of non-food crops (in 1000 m!/cap).Source: Bringezu 2005 / Steger 2005

Global land requirements of EuropeReduction of animal-based food

2000 2030

1000 m2/cap



Introduction

Overview





! Uncertainties: dynamics of productivity per hectare

! Agricultural global land use of the EU already beyond its „fair share“.

! Increasing demand of agrofuels will worsen the imbalance.

! Depletion of natural ecosystems in countries like Brasil and Indonesia

! Current control mechanisms not effective

! The balanced approach of the EU: good principle - bad practice?

! In the EU a reduction of animal based food can free up land

Towards a sustainable biomass strategyConclusions from a volume perspective



Towards a sustainable biomass strategyStandards setting and certification

Learning from established standards regarding biomass e.g.:

Recent international initiatives e.g.:

• Netherlands: Working Group „Sustainable Production of Biomass“ for

development of sustainability criteria

• United Kingdom: Sustainability criteria for GHG and biofuels within the

biofuel commitment

• International: Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels (RSB), Roundtable

on Sustainble Palm Oil (RSPO), etc.

• Voluntary certification is no substitute for comprehensive natural conservation

scheme or other regulations that secure an area-wide conservation standard.

Limits


• Residuals:In general preferable to use biomass residuals or energy recovery;

• Biofuels:

• Environmental benefit of 1st generation biofuels limited;

• 2nd generation: high uncertainties - stepping stone technologies?

• Cascading use of biomass preferable:first as material, second for energy;

• Efficiency: Shift to renewables should be combined with measuresto inrease efficiency of use.

Towards a sustainable biomass strategyConclusions from a life-cycle-perspective



! Limited potential for biomass production and trade due to landavailability-> countries should optimize own use of domestic potentials

! Need for integrated sustainability assessments at different scales-> environmental and social impacts incl. assessment of uncertainties(e.g. regarding productivities)

! Importance of resource efficiency potentials-> need of reduction of absolute resource

consumption cannot be circumventedby shift to biomass

! Need for a cross-sector strategy-> multiple uses, multipliple land usefunctions, multiacteur, multi-level

Towards a sustainable biomass strategyOverall conclusion



Towards a sustainable biomass strategyMajor Research Questions

! How to determine a sustainable level and pattern of resource usefor the various countries and regions?Considering the balance between the use of non-renewable mineralsand renewable biomass, as well as the balance between domestic andforeign supply.

! Which normative settings are required?in order to minimize burden shifting across regions and allow a fair shareof using resources distributed amongst various countries? How far needprecautionary or preventive action go if resources located in othercountries are to be sheltered?

! Which instruments are needed?(such as investments, subsidies, certification or labelling) orcombinations to implement a sustainable biomass and resource policy atthe national and international level?



Towards a Sustainable Biomass StrategyThe bigger picture

Primary

resources Biotic resources Abiotic resources

Types of use Energy use Material use Food Combinations

Life cycle

stages

Resource

extraction

Design of

materials and products

Eficiency in

material processing

Efficient

use

Recycling and

energy recovery

Spatial scale

of impact Local Regional Global

Acteurs of

production and consumption

Industry Consumers Intermediaries Other

stakeholders

Policy mix Distributive policies Regulatory policies Information policies

Research

arenas Natural science Social science

Interdisciplinary and

applied sciences

Biomass embedded in a larger system of resource uses,

material paths and policy interactions.

Many thanks for your attention !

Dipl. Forest, M.Sc. Justus von Geibler

Research Group Sustainable Production and Consumption

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.wupperinst.org

Wuppertal Paper no. 163.

production and use of biomass : high volumes for whom? · source: imhoff ml, bounoua l. (2006),...

Documents