problem conclusions hursat-adt and aircraft pressure · comparing ci-number/pressure relationships...

32 nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology 18–22 April 2016, San Juan, PR [email protected] pdf of this poster Poster #80 Comparing CI-number/Pressure Relationships in the Western Pacific using HURSAT-ADT and Historical Reconnaissance Carl J. Schreck III 1,2 , K. R. Knapp 2 , J. P. Kossin 2 , and C. Velden 3 1 NCSU’s Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites North Carolina (CICS-NC), 2 NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, 3 Wisconsin-Madison’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) Conclusions • Both Dvorak and Koba WPRs are inconsistent with Knaff–Zehr for stronger storms • Koba’s pressures are good, but the winds are too weak when converted to pressure • Dvorak’s pressures are too strong, but the winds converted to pressure are good • This analysis supports operational practice of using Dvorak to estimate winds and then converting to pressure using Knaff–Zehr Map of fixes with both aircraft and HURSAT- ADT intensity estimates Data & Methods Reconnaissance data • Obtained from JTWC F-Decks for 1978– 1987 • Using pressure calculated from minimum flight-level height HURSAT-ADT • ADT algorithm applied to HURSAT data (see Kossin et al. 2013) • Only uses infrared data from geostationary satellites • May underestimate intensities, esp. for storm with developing eyes or with very small eyes Match aircraft pressure with nearest HURSAT-ADT fix within 3 hours • Koba et al. (1991) manually analyzed 855 fixes for 50 storms • Our method produces 1972 fixes from 163 storms HURSAT-ADT and Aircraft Pressure Top: Histogram of HURSAT-ADT CI numbers and pressures derived from flight-level heights Bottom: Deviations from the median observed pressure for each table Broad agreement for storms weaker than T-5.0 and 960 hPa Tables diverge for stronger storms • Aircraft pressures roughly align with those from Koba • Dvorak pressures are too low for stronger storms • Koba winds, when converted to pressure through Knaff–Zehr, are too weak for stronger storms • Dvorak winds, converted to pressure through Knaff–Zehr, match observations Problem JTWC and JMA produce very different estimates of Typhoon strength Histogram of 1-min best track winds (left: JTWC, right: JMA) and aircraft reconnaissance pressures. • JTWC uses the Dvorak tables • JMA uses Koba tables, which have lower winds for the strongest storms • Differences extend well beyond wind averaging periods (10- minute vs. 1-minute) • Aircraft reconnaissance ended in 1987, and even then wind estimates were crude by today’s standards Wind–Pressure Relationships Knaff & Zehr (2007) and Knaff & Sampson (2006): V srm Storm-relative wind speed V srm =V max − 1.5 c 0.63 S Normalized size parameter 0.64 P env Environmental Pressure 1008.9 Φ Latitude 18.85° ∆P P env − MSLP c Storm motion 9.6 Glossary and References JTWC: Joint Typhoon Warning Center JMA: Japanese Meteorological Agency ADT: Advanced Dvorak Technique Dvorak, V. F., 1984: Tropical cyclone intensity analysis using satellite data. NOAA Tech. Rep. NESDIS 11, 45 pp. Knaff, J. A., and C. R. Sampson, 2006: Reanalysis of West Pacific tropical cyclone intensity 1966–1987. Preprints, 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.. Knaff, J. A., and R. M. Zehr, 2007: Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Wind–Pressure Relationships. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 71–88, doi:10.1175/WAF965.1. Koba, H., T. Hagiwara, S. Osano, and S. Akashi, 1991: Relationships between CI number and minimum sea level pressure/maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones. Geophys. Mag. , 44, 15–25. Kossin, J. P., T. L. Olander, and K. R. Knapp, 2013: Trend analysis with a new global record of tropical cyclone intensity. J. Climate, 26, 9960–9976, doi:10.1175/JCLI- D-13-00262.1.

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Page 1: Problem Conclusions HURSAT-ADT and Aircraft Pressure · Comparing CI-number/Pressure Relationships in Poster #80 the Western Pacific using HURSAT -ADT and Historical Reconnaissance

32nd ConferenceonHurricanesandTropicalMeteorology18–22April2016,SanJuan,PR

[email protected] pdf ofthisposter

Poster#80ComparingCI-number/PressureRelationshipsintheWesternPacificusingHURSAT-ADTandHistoricalReconnaissance

CarlJ.Schreck III1,2,K.R.Knapp2,J.P.Kossin2,andC.Velden31NCSU’sCooperativeInstituteforClimateandSatellitesNorthCarolina(CICS-NC),2NOAA’sNationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformation,3Wisconsin-Madison’sCooperativeInstituteforMeteorologicalSatelliteStudies(CIMSS)

Conclusions

• BothDvorakandKoba WPRsareinconsistentwithKnaff–Zehr forstrongerstorms

• Koba’s pressuresaregood,butthewindsaretooweakwhenconvertedtopressure

• Dvorak’spressuresaretoostrong,butthewindsconvertedtopressurearegood

• ThisanalysissupportsoperationalpracticeofusingDvoraktoestimatewindsandthenconvertingtopressureusingKnaff–Zehr

MapoffixeswithbothaircraftandHURSAT-ADTintensityestimates

Data&Methods

Reconnaissancedata• ObtainedfromJTWC

F-Decksfor1978–1987

• Usingpressurecalculatedfromminimumflight-levelheight

HURSAT-ADT• ADTalgorithmappliedtoHURSATdata(seeKossin etal.

2013)• Onlyusesinfrareddatafromgeostationarysatellites• Mayunderestimateintensities,esp.forstormwith

developingeyesorwithverysmalleyes

MatchaircraftpressurewithnearestHURSAT-ADTfixwithin3hours• Koba etal.(1991)manuallyanalyzed855fixesfor50

storms• Ourmethodproduces1972fixesfrom163storms

HURSAT-ADTandAircraftPressure

Top:HistogramofHURSAT-ADTCInumbersandpressuresderivedfromflight-levelheightsBottom: Deviationsfromthemedianobservedpressureforeachtable

BroadagreementforstormsweakerthanT-5.0and960hPa

Tablesdivergeforstrongerstorms• AircraftpressuresroughlyalignwiththosefromKoba• Dvorakpressuresaretoolowforstrongerstorms• Koba winds,whenconvertedtopressurethroughKnaff–Zehr,aretoo

weakforstrongerstorms• Dvorakwinds,convertedtopressurethroughKnaff–Zehr,match

observations

Problem

JTWCandJMAproduceverydifferentestimatesofTyphoonstrength

Histogramof1-minbesttrackwinds(left:JTWC,right:JMA)andaircraftreconnaissancepressures.

• JTWCusestheDvoraktables• JMAusesKoba tables,whichhavelowerwindsforthe

strongeststorms• Differencesextendwellbeyondwindaveragingperiods(10-

minutevs.1-minute)• Aircraftreconnaissanceendedin1987,andeventhenwind

estimateswerecrudebytoday’sstandards

Wind–PressureRelationships

Knaff &Zehr (2007)andKnaff &Sampson(2006):

Vsrm Storm-relativewindspeed Vsrm = Vmax −1.5 c0.63

S Normalizedsize parameter 0.64Penv EnvironmentalPressure 1008.9Φ Latitude 18.85°∆P Penv − MSLPc Stormmotion 9.6

GlossaryandReferencesJTWC:JointTyphoonWarningCenter JMA:JapaneseMeteorologicalAgency ADT:AdvancedDvorakTechniqueDvorak,V.F.,1984:Tropical cycloneintensityanalysisusingsatellitedata.NOAATech.Rep.NESDIS11,45pp.Knaff, J.A.,andC.R.Sampson,2006:ReanalysisofWestPacifictropicalcycloneintensity1966–1987.Preprints,27thConf.onHurricanesandTropical

Meteorology,Monterey,CA,Amer.Meteor.Soc..Knaff, J.A.,andR.M.Zehr,2007:ReexaminationofTropicalCycloneWind–PressureRelationships.Wea.Forecasting,22,71–88,doi:10.1175/WAF965.1.Koba,H.,T.Hagiwara,S.Osano,andS.Akashi,1991:RelationshipsbetweenCInumber andminimum sealevelpressure/maximumwindspeedoftropical

cyclones.Geophys.Mag.,44,15–25.Kossin, J.P.,T.L.Olander,andK.R.Knapp,2013:Trendanalysiswithanewglobal recordoftropicalcycloneintensity.J.Climate,26,9960–9976,doi:10.1175/JCLI-

D-13-00262.1.

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