Probability and Statistics (MATH 315)

Spring Quarter, 2010

Time/Place: MWRF 8:00-8:50 a.m. KRH 347

Instructor: Jonathan Duncan (jonathan.duncan@wallawalla.edu)Office: Kretchmar Hall 330, phone: 527-2097

Office Hours: 9:00 MTWF, 11:00 MWF, 1:00 T or by appointment

Text: John E. Freund’s Mathematical Statistics with Applications, 7th Edition,by Irwin Miller and Marylees Miller, Pearson Prentice Hall, 2004. (ISBN 0-13-142706-7)

Webpage: http://math.wallawalla.edu/courses/315/

We will study counting and probability, probability distributions and densities, mathematical expectation,functions of random variables, sampling distributions, interval estimation, hypothesis testing, and analysisof variance. We will cover selected sections from 1-8 and 11-14 of your text, in order. The deadline forwithdrawal from the course is Tuesday, 18 May and the final will be on Tuesday, 8 June 2010.

Topics

1. Probability and Probability Distributions (Chapters 1-3):sample spaces, events, probability of an event, probability rules, conditional probability, independence,Bayeys’ theorem, random variables, probability distributions, continuous random variables, probabilitydensity functions, multivariate distributions, conditional distributions

2. Mathematical Expectation and Special Probability Distributions (Chapters 4-7):expected value, moments, Chebyshev’s theorem, moment-generating functions, discrete uniform distri-bution, Bernoulli distribution, binomial distribution, negative binomial distribution, geometric distribu-tion, hypergeometric distribution, Poisson distribution, uniform distribution, gamma, exponential, andChi-Squared distributions, beta distribution, normal distribution, normal approximation to the binomialdistribution, distribution function technique, transformation techniques

3. Sampling and Inference (Chapters 8, 11-13):distribution of the mean, Chi-Squared distribution, t distribution, F distribution, estimation of means,estimation of proportions, estimation of variances, testing a statistical hypothesis, testing means, testingvariances, testing proportions

4. Other Topics (Chapters 13-14):analysis of an r×c table, Goodness of Fit, linear regression, the method of least squares, normal regressionanalysis, normal correlation analysis

Objectives

Upon completion of this course, students will have

1. developed demonstrable understanding of the topics outlined above.

2. successfully engaged in mathematical thinking, reasoning, and problem solving.

3. become proficient in expressing clear and accurate solutions to mathematical problems in written form.

The following requirements encourage and measure the successful completion of these objectives.

WeBWorK Assignments (O2)

Mathematics is not a spectator sport. Daily WeBWorK assignments will be given, each due by 11:59p.m. on the day of the second class period after it is assigned. These assignments, together with thesolution write-ups mentioned below, should be considered the minimal amount of homework required topass the course, and can be expected to take approximate two hours for every hour of lecture. Your lowesttwo WeBWorK homework scores will be dropped at the end of the quarter. If you miss more than twoassignments due to appropriate and verifiable reasons, additional homework scores may, at the discretionof your instructor, be dropped.

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Solution Write-Ups (O3)

In addition to your daily WeBWorK, you will complete weekly assignments focusing on solution write-up.These assignments are due by 11:59 p.m. on the Monday following the week in which they are assigned.No solution write-up assignments will be dropped. Please contact your instructor well ahead of time if youbelieve illness or other unavoidable circumstances will necessitate turning in a late solution write-up.

WeBWorK can check your answers, but not your solutions. A solution is a guide to understanding why youranswer is correct. When writing up solutions, it is not enough to supply a number or a formula. You mustshow your work! Your write-up must communicate how you arrived at your answer. To help facilitate thiscommunication, include short sentences along the way explaining what you are doing to solve the problem.These sentences provide a framework within which the reader can better understand your mathematics.Finally, presentation is an important part of any solution. You are trying to “sell” your work to the reader.Therefore your write-ups should be well organized and legible, flow nicely, and be a joy to read!

When turning in solution write-up assignments, please write in pencil on 8.5 × 11 paper with clean edges.Staple multiple pages together and then fold the papers lengthwise, like a book. Write your name, the coursenumber, and the week number on the front cover. Papers which do not meet these criteria may be discountedor returned.

Exams (O1,O2,O3)

There will be four exams during the course of the quarter, including the two-hour comprehensive final. Thefirst three exam dates are subject to in-class change, and will be announced at least one week in advance.You may request alternative exam dates in advance for appropriate and verifiable reasons. The finalexam may only be taken out of schedule after consultation with the Associate Academic Dean.

Exam I Chapters 1, 2, and 3 15 AprilExam II Chapters 4, 5, 6, and 7 5 MayExam III Chapters 8, 11, 12, and 13 27 MayFinal Chapters 1-8 and 11-15 Tuesday, 8 June 10:00 a.m.

Grades

Your final letter grade will be based on your quarter average as shown below. Your quarter average is madeup of six scores: your WeBWorK average, write-up average, and four exam scores. Weights for each of theseare given below. Appropriate (to your instructor) modifications of the final letter grades may be made inindividual cases for progress, unusual circumstances, etc.

Score WeightsFinal 30%Exams I-III 3×18%WeBWorK 10%Write-Ups 6%

Letter Grades (lowest percent)B+ 89% C+ 78% D+ 64%

A 93% B 82% C 68% D 57% F 0%A- 91% B- 80% C- 66% D- 55%

All acts of dishonesty are unacceptable, including cheating, plagiarism, forgery, misrepresentation, falsifica-tion, and prohibited collaboration. Violation of academic integrity codes will result in disciplinary action.Collaboration on homework is encouraged, but be certain that the work you hand in is your own.

Disabilities

Students with a physical and/or learning disability who require accommodations should contact the instructoror Disability Support Services at 527-2366. This syllabus is available in alternative formats upon request.

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