private & confidential interim results fy 2015/16 17 november 2015
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
Interim Results FY 2015/1617 November 2015
![Page 2: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
The information contained in this document and made verbally to you (together the "Presentation") is confidential and is being supplied, in the United Kingdom only to persons with professional
experience in matters relating to investments and/or to high net worth companies as described in Article 19(5) and 49(2) respectively of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial
Promotion) Order 2001 (SI. 2001/No. 1335) (as amended) made pursuant to section 21(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and, if permitted by applicable law, is being supplied
outside the United Kingdom to professionals or institutions whose ordinary business involves them in investment activities. The information contained in this document is not intended to be
viewed by, or distributed or passed on (directly or indirectly) to, any other class of persons. Recipients of this Presentation should not base any behaviour in relation to the contents of this
Presentation, which would amount to market abuse as defined in Section 118 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) until the contents are made generally available to the public.
Accordingly, information contained in the Presentation is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be copied, reproduced or further distributed to any person or published in
whole or in part, for any purpose. In particular, the distribution of this document in jurisdictions other than the United Kingdom may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this
document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of laws of any such other jurisdiction.
In particular, this document is not for distribution in the United States, Australia, Canada or Japan.
This Presentation includes certain statements, estimates and projections with respect to the anticipated future performance of Vectura Group plc, its products and the markets in which it operates.
Such statements, estimates and projections reflect the various assumptions made by Vectura Group plc, which assumptions may or may not prove to be correct.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in the Presentation and no liability is accepted for
any such information or opinions by Vectura Group plc (the "Company" and, together with its subsidiary undertakings, the "Group") or any of its respective directors, members, officers, employees,
agents or advisers. Notwithstanding this, nothing in this paragraph shall exclude liability for any representation or warranty made fraudulently.
This document and the information contained in it does not constitute a prospectus and does not form any part of an offer of, or invitation to purchase or apply for or enter into any contract or
make any other commitment whatsoever in relation to, securities. In particular, details included in this Presentation are subject to updating, revision, further verification and amendment. This
Presentation does not constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company.
Disclaimer
![Page 3: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Speakers
Introduction and business overview
James Ward-Lilley, CEO
Financial results
Andrew J Oakley, CFO
![Page 4: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Vectura: Leveraging device & formulation capabilities in inhaled airways disease with hybrid model delivering strong, sustainable shareholder value creation
VecturaStrong fundamentals for sustained growth with a hybrid model
Core capabilities Emerging pipeline Financial platform
• Strong track record of device and formulation development
• Increased leverage potential of nebulised platforms with FAVORITE technology
• Industry leading inhaled large molecule formulation
• Progression of clinical pipeline with balanced risk of:
• Partnered assets
• Wholly owned assets leveraging FAVORITE technology
• ..with potential for future specialist commercial capability
• Strong revenue growth and earnings
• Sustained R&D milestone delivery
• Significant in market revenue growth
• Potential near term generic revenues offer additional upside
• Balance sheet strength
![Page 5: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Building through milestones and in-market revenuesFY 2015 breakthrough year – revenue growth of 59% to £58m
2012/13 2013/14 2014/150.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
RoyaltiesMilestonesDevice Sales & Development Services
5
£m
![Page 6: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Interim results 2015/16: Highlights
Revenues up 35% to £26.1m • Driven by 67% increase in royalties
• FY financials weighted towards H2
EBITDA up 57% to £4.7m• Result of sustained growth in royalty revenue
Continuous strong news flow• Significant organic growth in royalties
- Increases in partnered product sales
• Good pipeline progress continued- Important generic & branded pipeline development milestones
- Progress on wholly owned assets
- New partnered product approvals
6
![Page 7: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
...Evolving pipeline is highly valuable
Potential for sustained revenues from milestones and royalties
Significant peak sales potential from late-stage products
Partnered Wholly ownedGenericBranded
321
Pre-clinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Generics Filed
VR588 Severe InflammatoryAirways disease(Global)
VR475Severe Adult Asthma(US)
VR465 (Ablynx)RSV Infection (Global)
VR942 (UCB)InflammatoryAirways disease(Co-development global)
VR647Paediatric Asthma(US)
VR179 (Grifols)Cystic Fibrosis(Global)
VR736 (Ventaleon)Severe Influenza(Global)
VR096 (Janssen)Anti-inflammatory Asthma/COPD(Global)
VR475Severe Adult Asthma(EU)
VR876 (partnered, undisclosed)Serious Lung Disease(Europe)
QVM149(Novartis)Asthma(EU, ROW)
VR315 (partnered, undisclosed)Asthma/COPD(US)
VR506 (partnered, undisclosed)Asthma(US)
VR632 (Sandoz) Asthma(EU)
7
![Page 8: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
2015 key pipeline newsflow
Programme Compound Indication Event Milestone Partner
Phase I
VR942 biologic immuno-modulatory Severe inflammatory respiratory disease
Phase I clinical study commenced UCB
Phase II
VR647 (SCIPE) corticosteroid budesonide Paediatric asthma Positive US FDA meeting Wholly owned
VR096 Novel anti-inflammatory Asthma/COPD Signed global development & licence agreement
Janssen Biotech
Phase III
VR475 EU corticosteroid budesonide severe uncontrolled asthma
Phase III clinical study initiated First sites opened & patient
screening initiated
Wholly owned
VR876 nebulised version of currently marketed drug
Serious lung disease Development milestone €5.0m Undisclosed
QVM149LAMA/LABA/ICS
indacaterol/glycopyrronium bromide/mometasone fuorate
Asthma Announce plans to develop Novartis
Generics
VR632 generic, combination therapy Asthma/COPD Development milestone €0.75m Sandoz
VR315 generic, combination therapy Asthma/COPD Development milestone $3m Undisclosed
Approved
QVA149 USLABA/LAMA
indacaterol/glycopyrronium bromide COPD US FDA approval$22.5m
Total for both QVA149 &
NVA237
Novartis
NVA237 USLAMA
glycopyrronium bromide COPD US FDA approval Novartis
8
![Page 9: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Financial resultsAndrew J Oakley, CFO
9
![Page 10: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Financial highlights
Revenue growth EBITDA1 progression Adjusted2 basic EPS
Driven by 67% increase in royalties
+ 35% + 57%
+50%£26.1m £4.7m 1.2p(H1 2014/15: £19.4m) (H1 2014/15: £3.0m) (H1 2014/15: 0.8p)
H1 2013/14 H1 2014/15 H1 2015/160.0
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.8
Adjusted2 basic EPS progression
Continued EBITDA1 progression as a result of sustained growth in royalty revenue
H1 2013/14 H1 2014/15 H1 2015/160
5
10
15
20
25
30Revenue
H1 2013/14 H1 2014/15 H1 2015/160
0.51
1.52
2.53
3.54
4.55
EBITDA progression
1 Earnings before investment income, finance (losses)/gains, tax, depreciation, amortisation, share-based compensation and adjusted for non-recurring expenditure
2 Adjusted basic EPS is calculated using EBITDA and the weighted average number of shares in the period
10
![Page 11: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Revenue
Significant organic growth in royalties from recently launched products• Strong growth in royalties from
Novartis/GSK
Important development milestones for VR315 US and VR87627% growth on a constant currency basis
Growing royalties and important milestone achievements
H1 14/15 H1 15/160.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
19.4
26.1
35%
£m
11
![Page 12: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Royalty income
Net sales of Seebri® and Ultibro®* by Novartis of $208m + 63% on prior period• Future growth expected from US
launches of recently approved Novartis portfolio
Net sales of GSK products** of £158m + 394% on prior period• Royalties subject to annual cap of
£13m
ADVATE® now accounts for 33% of royalty revenue (H1 14/15 -53%)
53% growth on a constant currency basis
Sustained growth in sales of recently launched products
H1 14/15 H1 15/16
5.5 5.7
3.4
6.30.9
4.5
Baxter Novartis GSK
67%
£m
** Anoro® Ellipta®, Relvar®/Breo® Ellipta® and Incruse ® Ellipta ® are registered trade marks of GSK
* Seebri® Breezhaler®, Ultibro® Breezhaler® are registered trade marks of Novartis AG
12
![Page 13: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Milestone income
Important milestone achievements during the year• $3m development milestone for VR315
US
• €5m development milestone for VR876
Prior year included upfront signing milestones of $4m for VR506 US• Development of VR506 continues with
undisclosed US partner
NVA237 and QVA149 milestones received in H2 ($22.5m)
Further positive newsflow expected in H2
Continued progress by our partners
H1 14/15 H1 15/160.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
5.55.1
7%
£m
13
![Page 14: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Operating expenditure1
Increased investment in R&D activities Administrative expenses and cost of sales in-line with prior periodNegligible currency impact
Measured investment in development portfolio
H1 14/15 H1 15/160.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
16.4
21.4
30%
£m
14
1 R&D excluding depreciation, other administrative expenses and cost of sales
![Page 15: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
R&D expenses1
Focused investment in our pipeline
• Phase III costs for VR475 (+£1.6m)
• Continued development of FOX® platform (+£1.6m)
• On-going study for VR942 and pre-clinical activities on wholly owned VR588 (+£0.3m)
• Non-recurring costs associated with the closure of our Gemuenden site (+£1.0m)
Measured investment in development portfolio
H1 14/15 H1 15/160.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
12.7
17.2
35%
£m
1 Excluding depreciation
15
![Page 16: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
EBITDA
Driven by 35% top line growth Strong performance during period of increased R&D investment
Strong performance from underlying operations
H1 14/15 H1 15/160.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
3.0
4.7
57%
£m
16
![Page 17: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Non-operating expenditure
£1.4m reduction in amortisation expense • Reduction in Innovata charge
• Favourable FX movement on Activaero charge
Increase in share-based compensation as a result of CEO changeInvestment income includes £2.3m ProFibrix deferred consideration
Depreciation, amortisation and financial income
H1 14/15 H1 15/160.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
11.79.7
17%
£m
17
![Page 18: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Loss after tax
Loss after tax reduces as a result of sustained revenue growthBasic EPS - loss of 0.7pAdjusted1 basic EPS - earnings of 1.2p
Reducing loss after tax
H1 14/15 H1 15/16-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
-5.7
-2.7
53%
£m
1 Adjusted basic EPS is calculated using EBITDA and the weighted average number of shares in the period.
18
![Page 19: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Cash
Cash inflow from operations of £9.4mFinal consideration payment of €35m re Activaero NVA237 and QVA149 milestones ($22.5m) received in H2
Cash inflow from operations
FY 14/15 H1 15/160.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
90.078.5
13%
£m
19
![Page 20: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
• Anticipate continued growth in royalty revenue from recently launched products
• Significant development and regulatory milestones expected in H2 15/16
• Administrative expenses expected to remain in line with FY 14/15
• Anticipated increase in investment for FY 15/16• Clinical trial activities• Full year guidance at lower end of range £40m-£52m
• Continued growth anticipated year on year
Administrative expenses
EBITDA
Revenue
Research and development expenditure
Financial outlook: FY 2015/16
20
![Page 21: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Business overview
James Ward-Lilley, CEO
21
![Page 22: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
...Evolving pipeline is highly valuable
Potential for sustained revenues from milestones and royalties
Significant peak sales potential from late-stage products
Partnered Wholly ownedGenericBranded
321
Pre-clinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Generics Filed
VR588 Severe InflammatoryAirways Disease(Global)
VR475Severe Adult Asthma(US)
VR465 (Ablynx)RSV Infection (Global)
VR942 (UCB)InflammatoryAirways disease(Co-development global)
VR647Paediatric Asthma(US)
VR179 (Grifols)Cystic Fibrosis(Global)
VR736 (Ventaleon)Severe Influenza(Global)
VR096 (Janssen)Anti-inflammatory Asthma/COPD(Global)
VR475Severe Adult Asthma(EU)
VR876 (partnered, undisclosed)Serious Lung Disease(Europe)
QVM149(Novartis)Asthma(EU, ROW)
VR315 (partnered, undisclosed)Asthma/COPD(US)
VR506 (partnered, undisclosed)Asthma(US)
VR632 (Sandoz) Asthma(EU)
22
Using FAVORITE technology
Biologic
Generics
![Page 23: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Clear opportunity to leverage FAVORITE approach used in AKITA® JET and FOX® devices
23
Faster delivery
Improve lung deposition
Less drug, better economics
Potential to improve outcomes
Range of indications where currently used today:• Asthma• COPD• Bronchiectasis• Cystic Fibrosis
*Meyer et al. 2001; Deposition von therapeutischen Aerosolen in der Lungenperipherie. Aerosole in der inhalationstherapie, ed. G. Scheuch. Vol. 5. 2001, Dustri-Verlag Dr Karl Feistle: München. 93-100.
Tidal breathing*(typical short and abrupt
inhalation pattern)
FAVORITE inhalation*(slow and deep
inhalation)
FAVORITE: Flow And VOlume Regulated Inhalation TEchnology
FAVORITE improves effectiveness of delivery by reducing the impact of variable breathing patterns on drug delivery
Peripheral Airway Depositione.g. Alpha – 1 – antitrypsin and antibiotics
aerosolJust air
Central Airway Depositione.g. bronchodilator applications
Just air aerosol Just air
![Page 24: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Clinically relevant improvements in airways function seen in asthma patients following administration of FAVOLIR via AKITA®JET
24
Note: AICS-Bud 1 mg = VR475
Mean FEV1 improvement [ml/18weeks]
AICS-Bud AICS-Placebo AICS-Bud CN-Bud +PARI0
100
200
300
1mgn = 80
n = 40 0.5mgn = 39
1mgn = 40
1 Vogelmeier et al, ERJ, Nebulised budesonide using a novel device in patients with oral steroid-dependent asthma. DOI: 10.1183/09031936.00152014 Published 11 December 2014
Benefits/trends also seen in OCS weaning - 80% of patients achieved reduction of OCS of 50% or more @ 14 weeks treatment
![Page 25: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
VR475 (FAVOLIR) – drug/devicecombination
VR647 (SCIPE) US – drug/devicecombination
AKITA® JET platform – validating FAVORITE technology and establishing opportunities for further indications
“Smart” delivery of nebulised budesonide for the EU market
Developed to reduce exacerbations in severe uncontrolled asthmatics (GINA steps 4 and 5) with a history of exacerbations and/or dependence on oral corticosteroids
Aim to show greater efficacy than conventionally nebulised budesonide and to be more cost effective than mAbs.
“Smart” delivery of nebulised budesonide for maintenance treatment of asthma in children for the US market
Opportunity to introduce an improved product to an established US market (budesonide is the only nebulised ICS approved in the US) and own sales/partnering potential
Developed to increase precision and reduce dosing time in children
25
Programme endorsed by CHMP scientific advice procedure
• Phase III results anticipated in mid 2018
• First sites opened and patient screening initiated
Opportunity to position as add-on therapy before biologics (mAbs) and potential for own sales/partnering
Developed as a maintenance treatment for asthma for the paediatric label only; age range 12 months to 8 years with objective to retain current label/indication for budesonide
FDA agreed 505(b)(2) pathway for development programme
• Anticipate IND filing mid 2016
• Phase III study to start mid 2017 with filing anticipated in H2 2019
![Page 26: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Significant market opportunity for nebulised budesonide using FAVORITE approach
EU marketUS IMS reported nebulised budesonide sales
26
MAT Q1 2014$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Total 0.25mg Total 0.5mg Total 1.0mg
*MAT Q1 2014
Source: IMS MPPQUARTERLY Audit
Active diagnosed asthmatics in EU5 (22.1m)1
Patients with an asthma diagnosis receiving 1 or more Rx of OCS p.a. (2.5m)2
Patients with asthma diagnosis receiving 2 or more Rx of OCS with uncontrolled severe asthma (1.0m)2
VR475 (FAVOLIR) programme VR647 (SCIPE) programme
Source: 1Decision Resources PatientBase Base Year 2012 (Accessed 18 February 2014)2Cegedim Strategic Data longitudinal patient databases (LPD)
* Moving annual total
SCIPE targeting paediatric asthma segment of overall nebulised budesonide usage
$m
![Page 27: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
VR942: Further demonstration of Vectura’s innovative formulation capabilities
Collaborative development with UCB of a biologic for uncontrolled asthma with proprietary DPI device
Add-on maintenance treatment for patients with uncontrolled asthma aged ≥12 years
Novel dry powder product concept and potential platform for further formulation exploitation and inhaled device technology
Validation of inhaled large molecule formulation expertise
Phase I Clinical has commenced• Phase I clinical study top-line data anticipated H1 2016• Selection of final Phase II clinical study design anticipated H1 2016
27
![Page 28: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
US regulatory landscape has changed• Facilitating approval of generic inhaled products
• Vectura and partners are well positioned to play a significant role globally
VR315: Inhaled generics portfolio offer huge further upside
28
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Forecast US sales of Generic Advair
Generic Advair/Seretide Decision Resources Generic Advair/Seretide Global Data
Generic Advair/Seretide Mean
$m
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Forecast US Sales of Advair
Evaluate
$m
Market opportunity is significant• Substitutability (“AB rating”) suggests rapid update
• Dosage forms and manufacturing capacity very important to maximise opportunity
• Limited competition maintains a high potential value
Advair® Diskus® is a registered trademark of GSK Source: Decision Resources Oct 2015, Global Data Asthma Aug 2014 – Generic Advair/Seretide mean forecastEvaluate consensus from Deutsche Bank to 2020 (08 Sep 15); Bernstein Research to 2020 (20 Jul 15); Bank of America-Merrill Lynch to 2023 (07 Sep 15)
![Page 29: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
H2 2015-2016 anticipated newsflow
Product/pipeline programme
Compound Indication Event Partner
ApprovedUtibron™ Neohaler® (QVA149)
LABA/LAMAindacaterol/glycopyrronium
bromideCOPD US launch Q1 2016 Novartis
Seebri™ Neohaler® (NVA237)LAMA
glycopyrronium bromide COPD US launch Q1 2016 Novartis
Phase IIIQVM149
LAMA/LABA/ICSindacaterol/glycopyrronium
bromide/mometasone fuorateAsthma Development
milestoneNovartis
Phase IIVR647 (SCIPE) corticosteroid budesonide Paediatric
asthmaStart of adult PK study Q2 2016
Wholly owned
Phase IVR942 Inhaled biologic Uncontrolled
asthmaPhase I clinical top-line data H1 2016
UCB
29
Ultibro, Seebri and Neohaler are registered trademarks of Novartis AG. Utibron is a trade mark of Novartis AG
![Page 30: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL Interim Results FY 2015/16 17 November 2015](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061604/5697c0031a28abf838cc3949/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
• >20% CAGR to 2022* • Marketed portfolio of partnered products performing well
• Potential for >9 assets to launch through to 2022• Pre-commercialisation milestone potential >US$100m
• Innovation, technology leadership and market validation drives our success
• Licensing deals have potential to accelerate value creation
• Quality of earnings improving• Continued consideration of M&A opportunities to accelerate
strategy
Strong pipelinetargeting a total market size greater than US$25 billion
Potential to grow andmaximise value
Potential for significantorganic revenue growth
Cutting-edge formulationand device technology
Vectura: Leveraging device & formulation capabilities in inhaled airways disease with hybrid model delivering strong, sustainable shareholder value creation
VecturaStrong fundamentals for sustained growth with a hybrid model
* Analysts estimates
30