primary energy demand of renewable energy carriers - part ii

Dr. Andreas Hermelink, Dr. Nesen Sürmeli-Anac

12/06/2014

Primary Energy Demand of Renewable Energy Carriers- Part II

Webinar

© ECOFYS | |

Content

> Introduction

> Definitions

> Review of Directives on Primary Energy Factors

> Review on Primary Energy Targets

> Policy Implications of different Primary Energy Factor Definitions

> Conclusions

12/06/2014 Dr. Andreas Hermelink2

© ECOFYS | |

Content

> Introduction

> Definitions




> Conclusions


© ECOFYS | |

Introduction – Renewable and non-renewable

energy sources used for electricity generation

Dr. Andreas Hermelink4 12/06/2014

Non-renewable energy sources Renewable energy sources

Combustibles Non-combustibles

Combustibles Non-combustibles

• Hard Coal

• Coal gases

• Lignite

• Peat

• Oil based fuels

• Natural gas

• Waste (fossil part)

• Nuclear • Biomass (solid, liquid, gaseous)

• Waste (biogenic part)

• Hydro (storage, run-of-river, tide, wave and ocean)

• Wind

• Solar (photovoltaic, solar thermal)

• Geothermal

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Content

> Introduction

> Definitions





© ECOFYS | | Dr. Andreas Hermelink6 12/06/2014

Nakicenovic (1996) defines primary energy as:

The energy that is embodied in resources as they exist in nature: the

chemical energy embodied in fossil fuels or biomass, the potential energy of

a water reservoir, the electromagnetic energy of solar radiation and the

energy released in nuclear reactions.

Definitions – Primary Energy

> This will be differentiated in the following.


Calculation of primary energy factor (PEF)

𝑃𝐸𝐹 =𝐶𝐹𝑓 𝑥 𝐼𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡𝑓

, 𝑡

𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡𝑡

CF f = calorific value of a fuel

Input f, t = Input of fuel per operation time

Output t = Output of electricity and/or heat per operation time

> Primary Energy Factors are the quotient of primary energy input to

energy (electricity/heat) output,

i.e. the reciprocal value of the conversion efficiency

This formula works very well for combustibles.

Eq. 1


Accounting Principles Primary Energy for electricity

and heat generation from non-combustibles

No. Option Type ofprimaryenergy

1 The PEF for electricity or heat from non-combustible renewables (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) is accounted as zero by definition.

Not applicable

2 Primary energy equivalents are used to calculate the primary energy of non-combustible energies (renewable energies excl. biomass) and the special case of nuclear energy.

Accounting for (total) primaryenergy

3 The PEF for electricity or heat from renewables only accounts the fossil primary energy that was necessary to produce construction materials for the infrastructure including fuels for transport and auxiliary materials during operation. For electricity from nuclear energy, the consumed fuel is also accounted as nonrenewable primary energy using a technical conversion efficiency or a primary energy equivalent.

Accounting for non-renewableprimary energy ONLY

4 The PEF is split up into fossil primary energy (e.g. infrastructure, conversion of nuclear energy) and renewable primary energy using primary energy equivalents or efficiencies for the conversion of renewable energy sources into electricity or heat.

Accounting for non-renewableAND renewable primary energy.


Methods to calculate primary energy equivalents or

conversion efficiencies

> Zero equivalent method

> Direct equivalent method

> Physical energy content method

> Substitution method

> Technical conversion efficiencies


Methods to determine the primary energy factors for

electricity generation from different energy sources - 1


Impact of different methods on countries PEF for grid mix - 1


Impact of different methods on countries PEF for grid mix - 2

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Content

> Introduction

> Definitions




> Conclusions



Review of Directives on Primary Energy Factors

Energy Efficiency

Directive

Energy Performance

of Buildings Directive

Renewable Energy

Directive



Energy Efficiency

Directive

Energy Performance


Renewable Energy

Directive


PEF in the Energy Efficiency Directive

Energy Efficiency

Directive

> Minus 20% between 2005-2020

> Article 7 of the EED states:

– “the amount of energy savings required or to be achieved by the

policy measure are expressed in either final or primary energy

consumption, using the conversion factors set out in Annex IV;”

> Annex IV, footnote 3 to the conversion table, states:

– “For savings in kWh electricity Member States may apply a default

coefficient of 2.5. Member States may apply a different coefficient

provided they can justify it.”

> No differentiation between PEF for renewables and non-renewables



Energy Efficiency

Directive

Energy Performance


Renewable Energy

Directive


PEF in the Renewable Energy Directive

> Mandatory requirements on EU member states:

– EU shall obtain 20% of total final energy consumption from

renewable sources by 2020 (Targets of member states vary)

> The RED states:

– „It is necessary to set transparent and unabiguous rules for

calculating the share of energy from renewable sources and for

defining those sources“

> Proposed approach:

– Calculation of Primary Energy Factors based on EUROSTAT

> No differentiation between PEF for renewables and non-renewables

Renewable Energy

Directive



Energy Efficiency

Directive

Energy Performance


Renewable Energy

Directive


PEF in the Energy Performance Buildings Directive

> Annex 1 of EPBD - Common general framework for the calculation of

energy performance of buildings, states:

– “The energy performance of a building shall be expressed in a

transparent manner and shall include an energy performance

indicator and a numeric indicator of primary energy use, based on

primary energy factors per energy carrier, which may be based

on national or regional annual weighted averages or a specific

value for on- site production. The methodology for calculating the

energy performance of buildings should take into account

European standards and shall be consistent with relevant Union

legislation, including Directive 2009/28/EC.”

Energy Performance



PEF in EN 15603

European standard EN 15603 Energy Performance of Buildings – Overall

energy use and definition of energy ratings

> “National annexes may be added to this standard, giving tables of

values representing local conditions for electricity generation and fuel

supply. Such tables shall give values for primary energy factors or

non-renewable primary energy factors, depending on which are to be

used at national level.”

Two Conventions

Total PEF

Non-renewable PEF


Calculation of total primary energy demand in

EN15603

Where

Ep = the primary energy demand

Edel, i= final energy demand of energy carrier (i)

fP,del,i = primary energy factor for demand energy carrier (i)

Eexp,I = exported final energy of energy carrier (i)

fP,exp,i = primary energy factor for export energy carrier (i)

𝐸𝑝= 𝐸𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑖 𝑓𝑃,𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑖) − 𝐸𝑒𝑥𝑝,𝑖 𝑓𝑃,𝑒𝑥𝑝,𝑖)

> Primary energy factors for demand and export can be the same

> Currently EN 15603 is under revision

Eq. 2

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Content

> Introduction

> Definitions




> Conclusions



PE targets in EU communications 1

> “Energy Efficiency: delivering 20% target” (COM(2008) 772 final)

> 20% energy saving target relative to a fixed base line projection

mainly by increased end-use energy efficiency and also by improved

conversion efficiency

> 20% target should lead to 400 Mtoe less total primary energy

demand (2012 update: 368 Mtoe through EED)

:

Action plan for Energy Efficiency (COM(2006) 545final)

2011 Energy

Efficiency Plan

EU is not on track for reaching 20% saving targets

only half of 20% target will be achieved


PE targets in EU communications 2

> Electricity will have an increased importance and a high share in final

energy demand

– 36-39% in 2050

Energy Roadmap 2050 (COM(2011) 885 final)

Very sigificant

Final energy savings

Decrease of primary energy use:

16 – 20% in 20301

1Compared to 2005


PE statistics: Methods for estimating primary energy

Options defined under this method

Calculation method

Comments Organizations

Option 1Zero equivalency method

very limited use in practice

Sub-Option 2aDirect equivalent method

A fixed standard value with no distinction between heat and electricity

UN statistics and IPCC reports

Sub-Option 2b

Physical energy content method

Based on technical conversion efficiency

International Energy Agency (IEA), Eurostat, OECD

Sub-Option 2cSubstitution method

Compared to primary energy requirement of reference technology

US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Option 3, Option 4 LCA method

Standardised method that also takes into consideration the complete supply chain and clearly makes a difference between renewable and non-renewable shares

Not used in energy statistics so far

© ECOFYS | |

Content

> Introduction

> Definitions




> Conclusions



Policy implications of different Primary Energy Factor

definitions

Energy Efficiency

Directive

Energy Performance


Renewable Energy

DirectiveImpact on…



definitions

Energy Efficiency

Directive

Energy Performance


Renewable Energy




definitions

Energy Efficiency


Example:

> Country without nuclear energy: 10% final electricity savings

– 50% fossil, 50% renewable (equal share amongst different

renewables)

Note:

> Calculation methods apply PEF of 2.5 for electricity from fossils but

different PEF for each renewable source

> Aggregate of non-renewable and renewable in 4a & 4b is intentional


Share of different energy sources in total primary

energy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Option 2a-Directequivalent

Option 2b-PhysicalEnergy Content

Option 2c-Substitution

method

Option 3-Only non-renewable primary

energy

Option 4a-LCA-Technical

ConversionEfficiencies

Option 4b-LCA-Physical Energy

Content

Rela

tiv

e S

hare o

f S

ou

rces i

n

Total

Prim

ary E

nerg

y

Hydro (storage power station) Hydro (run-of-river power station)

Wind Solar photovoltaic

Solar thermal Geothermal

Biomass (solid biomass fired power plant) Biomass (biogas fired gas turbine)

Conventional electricityFigure 1


Insights 1

> As long as reduction of electricity consumption is evenly distributed

to all energy sources:

10% reduction

For each energy source

10% reduction of

electricity use

10% reduction of

total primary energy

> “From which source should we reduce supply most for maximum

relative primary energy savings?”

– In all options that feature a relative share of renewables in the

total PEF of more than 50%

– It seems to be more attractive – only aiming at maximum primary

energy reduction – to switch off renewable power plants rather

than fossil power plants

switching off renewable power plants would lead to primary

energy savings of more than 10%

– Applies to options 2b & 2c but especially for options 4a & 4b


Insights 2

> If hypothetically all fossil power stations are switched off in option

4a:

100% reduction

Greenhouse gas emissions

50% reduction of

electricity supply

only 33% reduction of

total primary energy use

> Therefore in 4a it may seem to be more attractive to switch off all

renewable power stations:

– This seems to lead to approx.:

0% reduction

Greenhouse gas emissions

50% reduction of

electricity supply

67% reduction of

total primary energy use


Insights 3

> Reflect on the adequate application of the different methods to avoid

unintended and misleading results

> “Primary energy only” focus may lead to conclusions or decisions that

clearly contradict climate targets, which aim at maximum reduction

of greenhouse gas emissions rather than of primary energy use


The role of renewable energy in energy statistics

> Energy Statistics

– typically a PEF of 2.5 is used

– If a smaller primary energy factor is used in energy statistics for

renewable energy sources (e.g. option 2b uses 1 for hydro, solar

PV and wind)

increased relative share of renewable energy sources will lead

to primary energy savings without any final energy savings

INDIRECT savings

– “replacing 1 unit of fossil electricity (=2.5 units of primary

energy) by 1 unit of wind, hydro and solar electricity (=1 unit

primary energy) leads to 1.5 units of primary energy savings”

(Harmsen et al. (2011))


Impact on Indirect total primary energy use

> Changes in total primary energy use that don’t directly follow from

actual reduction of electricity use but only from replacing fossil fuel

by another energy carrier:

-20

-15

-10

-05

00

05

10

15

20

25

30

Option 2a-Directequivalent

Option 2b-PhysicalEnergy Content

Option 2c-Substitution

method

Option 3-Only non-renewable primary

energy

Option 4a-LCA-Technical

ConversionEfficiencies

Option 4b-LCA-Physical Energy

Content

In

dir

ect

Ch

an

ge o

f Tota

l P

rim

ary E

nerg

y

by S

ub

sti

tuti

ng

Fossil

Gen

erati

on

b

y A

noth

er S

ou

rce




Biomass (solid biomass fired power plant) Biomass (biogas fired gas turbine)

Waste NuclearFigure 2


Interpretation

> Ten different energy carriers:

– If 10 units of electricity from fossil power plants would be replaced

by one unit of electricity from each of those 10 alternative power

plants the net change in the total primary energy balance would be

the positive part in each option minus the corresponding negative

part

– Option 2a: Total primary energy would decrease by approx. 5 units

– Option 4a: Total primary energy would increase by approx. 15 units

– RE sources that remain competitive against fossil electricity (seem

to) vary within each calculation method

– Larger PEFs for renewable energy (especially values > 2.5) will risk

to hamper RE development

Especially for biomass, geothermal and solar thermal and waste

energy options



definitions

Energy Efficiency

Directive

Energy Performance


Renewable Energy



Impact on the Renewable Energy Directive

> Directive sets binding targets for percentage of renewable energy in

2020

> Method of calculation and choice of PEFs have potentially large impact

on calculation of share of renewable energy and consequently on

energy

Example:

> Hypothetical situation:

– Total gross inland consumption of 100 units of final energy from

fossil fuels

– 10 units of renewable energy from each renewable energy source

– Excluding waste and nuclear

– Option 3 was left out: only shows non-renewable primary energy

Impact on…Renewable Energy

Directive


Calculation of renewable share in RED

Where

%RES(i) =Share of Renewable energy source (i)

PEFRES(i) = Primary energy factor for renewable energy source (i)

ERES(i) = Final energy demand from renewable energy source (i)

PEFFF = Primary energy factor for fossil fuel (2.5)

EFF = Final energy demand from fossil fuel

%𝑅𝐸𝑆 𝑖 = (𝑃𝐸𝐹𝑅𝐸𝑆 𝑖 𝐸𝑅𝐸𝑆 𝑖 )/ 𝑃𝐸𝐹𝑅𝐸𝑆𝐸𝑅𝐸𝑆 + 𝑃𝐸𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐸𝐹𝐹

Eq. 3


Percentage of total renewable energy demonstrated

for hypothetical case

> Different methods can create the illusion of very different

achievement levels of renewable energy targets

Option 2a-Direct equivalent method

Option 2b-Physical Energy Content

Option 2c-Substitution method

Option 4a-LCA-Technical Conversion Efficiencies

Option 4b-LCA-Physical Energy Content

30% 42% 40% 55% 49%

Table 6


Contribution of energy sources to renewable energy

share for the hypothetical power system

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

Option 2a-Direct equivalent Option 2b-Physical energycontent

Option 2c-Substitutionmethod

Option 4a-LCA-TechnicalConversion Efficiencies

Option 4b-LCA-PhysicalEnergy Content

Percen

tag

e o

f R

en

ew

ab

le E

nerg

y




Biomass (solid biomass fired power plant) Biomass (biogas fired gas turbine) Figure 3



definitions

Energy Efficiency

Directive

Energy Performance


Renewable Energy



Impact on the Energy Performance of Buildings

Directive 1

> The EPBD defines a nearly Zero-Energy Building as follows:

– [A nearly Zero-Energy Building is a] “building that has a very high

energy performance… [ ]. The nearly zero or very low amount of

energy required should to a very significant extent be covered by

energy from renewable sources, including renewable energy

produced on-site or nearby.”

> Imported AND exported energy need to be considered!

> Extremely important: Renewable energy applications need to be

considered accurately in the national calculation methods or

requirements!

Impact on…Energy Performance



Calculation of total primary energy demand in

EN15603

Where

Ep = the primary energy demand

Edel, i= final energy demand of energy carrier (i)

fP,del,i = primary energy factor for demand energy carrier (i)

Eexp,I = exported final energy of energy carrier (i)

fP,exp,i = primary energy factor for export energy carrier (i)

𝐸𝑝= 𝐸𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑖 𝑓𝑃,𝑑𝑒𝑙,𝑖) − 𝐸𝑒𝑥𝑝,𝑖 𝑓𝑃,𝑒𝑥𝑝,𝑖)

> Primary energy factors for demand and export can be the same

> Currently EN 15603 is under revision

Eq. 2



Directive – Imported electricity

> Electricity consumption will contribute less primary energy to overall

energy performance indicator of a building resulting in increasing

competitive advantage for electric heating over oil and gas

> Plausible in case of PEF accounting options 2a, 2b, and 4b.

> Option 2c will not work towards lowering the total PEF for electricity as

it assigns equal PEFs to renewables and conventional resources

> For countries with high RE share, the total decrease of PEF for

electricity may not be reached due to high PEFs provided in option 4a

for renewable energy sources

> High PEFs may hamper the development of grid-coupled renewable

energy in the long run

> Depending on the PEF calculation method used people may use

different fuel mixes for minimising their building’s primary energy

balance



Directive – Exported electricity (on-site/nearby)

> PEFs assigned to renewable energy will have a direct influence on

calculating the total primary energy

> For low-energy buildings and nZEBs the aim is to maximise this

amount to lower the total primary energy consumption.

option 2c and option 4a will be most beneficial, due to high PEFs

for electricity produced on-site or nearby, especially if it comes

from PV or wind energy

> Dual effect on electricity delivered to the building and electricity

produced on-site or nearby simultaneously


Summary on Directives

Energy Efficiency

Directive

> Total primary energy use as indicator for the

end-use energy efficiency problematic

> Apparent improvements of energy efficiency

without reduction of the final energy useImprovement of the

end–use energy efficiency



Renewable Energy

Directive




without reduction of the finale energy use

> Depending on the accounting method very

different shares of renewable energy will

be demonstrated

> “virtual” improvements could be achieved

Improvement of the


Improvement of the

share of renewable energy

Energy Efficiency

Directive



Energy Performance





without reduction of the finale energy use

> Depending on the accounting method very

different shares of renewable energy will

be demonstrated

> “virtual” improvements could be achieved

> primary energy use as main indicator

> Methodology effects the calculated energy

performance and the chosen fuel mix and

share of renewables in buildings

Improvement of the


Improvement of the

share of renewable energy

Improvement of the

energy efficiency of buildings

Renewable Energy

Directive

Energy Efficiency

Directive


Issues with PEF of 2.5

> Lack of unambiguous scientific values

– Conversion factor of 2.5 introduced December 2003

– Based on Eurostat figures from 2001 or older

– Strong need for an update

> Lack of consistency

– Member States are free to choose PEFs

– Considerable space for Member States to deviate from the

suggested values

> Lack of transparency

– PEFs are not commonly based entirely on scientific arguments

and clear algorithms

– PEF for electricity should be regularly revised

– Method of calculation clearly documented and eventually

harmonized


Final conclusions - 1

> Member States should use the same or a very similar

methodology for determining PEFs

> Prevent abuse of methods to promote energy sources

> Methodology needs to be transparent and should be based on

available data

> Solid, scientifically based determination of primary energy

factors for all types of power supply must be available and

commonly applied

> Methods used for determining PEFs for energy from renewable

sources must be in line with climate policy targets


Final conclusions - 2

> Changes in the power system which lead to reductions in

greenhouse gas emissions generally should always lead to

reductions in primary energy use (=> problematic, when total

PEF is used)

> PEFs should be determined and applied in a way that enables to

clearly differentiate between

– direct primary energy savings (actual final energy savings)

– indirect primary energy savings (changes in the energy mix)

> Renewable energy sources should be treated equally relative to

their effect on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the

calculated share of renewables in an energy mix

> It does not seem helpful for achieving a well-balanced mix of

different renewable sources when one zero-emission source is

outpaced by another zero-emission source by assigning very

different PEFs

© ECOFYS | |

Please contact us for more information

Dr. Andreas Hermelink

Ecofys Germany GmbH

Am Karlsbad 11

10785 Berlin

Germany

T: +49 30 297 735 79-50

E: [email protected]

I: www.ecofys.com


primary energy demand of renewable energy carriers - part ii

Technology

definitions primary

fossil primary energy

nonrenewable primary

nonrenewable primary

total primary energy

primary energy equivalents

potential energy

chemical energy