Mr Dines strongly recommends a subscription to Interim Warning Bulletin (IWB) for potentially urgent messages or when we change our advice due to volatile or changing markets, and you don’t want to wait until our next Dines Letter publication to receive our message. (IWB consists of a variable number of issues, depending on changes between TDLs).

See samples of past IWBs here: February 4, 2014, February 21, 2014, August 26, 2015, and June 9, 2016.

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Previously Issued Interim Warning Bulletins (IWBs) for Your Historical Consideration

Interim Warning Bulletin 4 February 2014, Volume 2014, #2

Our last IWB (on 27 Jan 14) concluded that "The current (decline) probably has more to drop." After some counter-rallies, leading averages have indeed continued to decline. How much lower stocks might decline, and for what length of time, are the key questions being widely asked these days. To better weigh the conclusions, we examine some clues that might reveal the causes of the selling. Recent snow storms are widely blamed for the business slowdown, which obviously impacted sales of automobiles for example, but we are skeptical that that alone could cause a widespread stock-market decline because snow storms are temporary and did not blanket the entire nation.

Plain profit-taking by traders who had accumulated big gains since the 2008 crash lows is surely part of it. USA Today newspaper's front-page headline today read, "Fear Reigns on Wall Street." Plus scared selling by investors who are still frightened to hold stocks after 2008's traumatic decline. Confirming that factor as part of the answer is that the Dow- Jones Utility Average and bonds are rising despite generally weak markets. Our take is that fearful money is avoiding risk by seeking stable value and safe harbor even in dangerously overpriced areas, such as government bonds. If this is really a flight to safety, Nasdaq speculatives and real estate should also be weak, and indeed we flashed a "Sell" on real estate in our last IWB. US Government Treasury bonds are in a slight rally, but we doubt they will get above their October 2013 highs. Corporate bonds are in a more meaningful Uptrend, although we find it sad that corporations are considered more financially secure than governments. In times of intensifying Mass Fear many often seek the safe harbor of gold bullion, but gold-mining shares are rising instead, which is curious. Wouldn't gold bullion be better protection from Mass Fear? Yet gold bullion is flat near its lows, while gold-mining shares are edging higher. Same for flat silver bullion and rising silver-mining shares. Our analysis is that the entire natural resource sector's stocks have been rising -- including Rare Earths, and even uraniums (see Cameco) -- so maybe this Sector is being bought just because its stocks are so underpriced. Natural resources have been coldly ignored by the latest bull market of around six years. Is DIWPAT (The Dines Wolfpack Theory) suggesting that the bear market for natural resources that began in early 2011 is finally ending? We do not have enough evidence yet to be confident of that conclusion, but we have an eye on it, and are weighing "Buy" signals in that area. We also pondered whether "The Coming Great Deflation" is a hidden key to understanding stock markets these days. Indeed, the mainstream press has actually begun to finally use the word "deflation" in its reporting (see excerpts, below), probably finally awakened by the worldwide weakness in currencies. Long- term TDLrs might recall the 1997 currency crash that began in Thailand, that almost brought down several Asian economies. The dawning realization that the deflation we have been predicting --

see our Annual Forecast Issue starting on page 21 -- is finally slithering out of the swamp of mere possibilities. We are at the dawn of the sixth year of the bull market that began on 6 March 2009, and there have been many tummy-twisting drops since then, every single one of which was eventually followed by leading averages eventually moving into new all-time high ground. We regard that as a "Trend in Motion," meaning that the burden of proof is on the pessimists, as per DITREND (Dinesism #1). The chart on page 12 of our Annual Forecast Issue headlined that "Stocks Are Still Overbought" and thus vulnerable to declines. Markets have been forecasting Overbought Indicators all the way up, so we have no odds of knowing when the decline toward "Oversold" should occur, when the tension is much like the energy eventually released by an earthquake. Relatively few Security Analysts even dare to attempt to give explicit "Buy" and "Sell" signals and stops. As challenging as that is, almost nobody has the courage to give specific predictions as to the length or height of the next move, but we'll stick our necks out and suggest this: The Standard & Poors Average of 500 leading stocks has declined around 5% from the high, and there have been plenty of them all the way up. Furthermore, there is important Support in the 1650-1750 area, which would make it around a 10% Consolidation. Many individual stocks that were Overbought in December are now entering an Oversold condition, suggesting that a resumption of the Uptrend should arrive in a matter of weeks. While the market gives no guarantees to anybody, the pattern since 2008 has been that the way to make money in recent years has been to buy such setbacks before they soar to new highs. That said, January's weakness suggests that 2014 will be a generally weak year, based on the Seasonality feature on page 36 of your Forecast Issue (14 January 2014). So-called "emerging stock markets," more speculative ones, have already had a bad year. Even Japan, a developed nation, is down 14%. In conclusion, within the above constraints, we like the stocks in our Supervised Lists and are holding some of them without stops because we intend to ride out what should be tremendous growth in the 3D Printing area for example. Our last TDL has stops for some other stocks, but please remember that we do not give "Sell" signals, which are entirely your decision; We'll add our two cents as additional input for your final sell conclusions. However, we would like to take a tentative step by upgrading our views on precious metals mining stocks to a short-term "Buy," on silver-mining stocks generally, keeping in mind that DISSA (The Dines Silver Stock Average) made its last Low as recently as 19 Dec 2013, but has been edging higher since then. Our stop on DISSA is just below that Low at 53, and those with favorite mining stocks might consider beginning to buy small positions. We are still groping for the main gold trend, as its short-term moves are particularly deceptive. Amazon was stopped out at 359, and we are experiencing "seller's remorse." So we hereby re-recommend it, now around 349, with an aggressive new stop at 339. Next TDL tentatively scheduled for 28 February 2014.

CONDENSED, SELECTED EXCERPTS FOR BUSY TDLrs: CURRENCIES: 1. Argentina's government allowed its beleaguered peso to slide farther against the US dollar to stave off a possible currency crisis that risks pushing the country into a recession. Economists doubted they would work without an attack on the real source of the country's mounting economic problems: rampant government spending and a loose money policy that has caused one of the world's highest rates of inflation, estimated at more than 25% a year. It threatens the source of President Cristina Kirchener's power, which relies on spending and subsidies to ensure popularity. The president pledged not to devalue the currency, so this leaves her credibility in tatters. Too few reserves might prompt the country to default on its debts again or fall into a deep recession because it can't buy the imports it needs to keep its economy going. The government needs to devalue the currency to protect dollar reserves and shore up exports, but the devaluation will cause inflation to rise farther by making imports more expensive in peso terms. Any attempt to corral inflation from the devaluation means cutting spending, which reduces economic growth and is politically toxic. Government spending as a percentage of annual economic output in Argentina has risen, hitting roughly 40% in 2013. And the central bank is widely seen as holding interest rates below the rate of price increases -- prompting Argentines to spend rather than save. Department stores have already begun marking up prices on televisions, laptops and other items. A 55-inch HDTV set that cost around 26,000 pesos on Tuesday was selling for almost 32,000 pesos, or 23% more, on Friday. The country's long history of financial crises, including inflation that peaked at around 12,000% in the 1980s includes its 1975 currency devaluation, which caused inflation to spike to 300% from 50% within 12 months. When retailers don't know how much the peso will be worth, they start withholding merchandise, assuming that it's better to keep valuable goods in stock than to sell them. If inflation gets worse, you start to see retailers who won't sell goods even when consumers want to buy them. Since October 2011, the government has allowed limited sales of dollars to businesses that need to buy imported goods and people who want to travel or as a hedge against inflation. Residents must fill out a form on the Internet, attach their tax ID number, and still pay a 20% tax on the transaction. And even then there is no guarantee they will get the money. Ken Parks & Taos Turner, Wall Street Journal Ed: All TDLrs have often been advised to have some assets in more than one country. MARKETS 2. The euro area is getting perilously close to deflation. The legacy of the acute phase of the crisis remains a grim one. The euro-wide unemployment rate stayed stuck at 12.1% of the labor force. The hope now is that it may start to edge down as a weak recovery continues. Consumer-price inflation has become worryingly weak. The headline rate fell to 0.8% in the year to December. The core rate, which strips out more volatile items

like energy and food, dropped to 0.7%, the lowest ever since the euro started in 1999. Inflation is now uncomfortably far beneath the target rate set by the European Central Bank (ECB) of 2%. Inflation raises the risk of outright deflation. If prices were to start falling, it would intensify the eurozone's woes which are bound up with excessive debt, both public and private, in the most vulnerable economies. Deflation would cause that debt to rise in real terms. It could also stymie the recovery as people delay purchases because they will become cheaper. The ECB responded by cutting its main lending rate to 0.25%. But if inflation weakens further the ECB may have to embrace radical remedies, such as setting negative interest rates on deposits that banks leave with it. Economist (England) Ed: Psst. If cutting interest rates haven't worked for years, stop cutting them and try something else. Such as linking gold to paper money. 3. ECB poised for battle to ward off deflation. Mario Draghi has signalled that he would be prepared for the European Central Bank to fight deflation in Europe by buying packages of bank loans to households and companies. Criticizing those who think QE is "magic," the ECB president said the EU treaty "prohibits monetary financing." The implication was that buying government debt directly from member states was illegal, though the central bank has already bought sovereign bonds from investors. The threat of a prolonged period of falling prices, as seen in Japan over the past two decades, is increasingly viewed as a big risk to the global economic recovery. Nowhere is considered more vulnerable than the eurozone, where inflation is less than half the ECB's 2% target. Claire Jones & Chris Giles, Financial Times (London), 27 Jan 14 Ed: "Battle" deflation? Not another war! Just linking currencies to gold would fix it. 4. One piece of the jigsaw puzzle is missing to complete the deflation landscape across the West: a slide in oil prices. Turmoil across the Middle East and Africa has choked supply over the past two years, keeping Brent crude near $110 a barrel, despite a broader commodity slump. US shale will add 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to global supply for the third year running: Libya will crank up shipments after a near collapse in 2013 and Iran will come out of hibernation. America is on track to overtake Saudi Arabia as the top global producer of oil by 2016. The US Energy Departments says US oil imports will drop to 5.5 million bpd by next year, half the levels a decade ago. This turns the world's 89 million bpd market upside down. Deutsche Bank said Saudi Arabia may have to slash its output by a quarter to 7.5 million bpd this year to stop the bottom falling out of the market. The Saudis no longer have such money to spare. They are propping up a welfare nexus to keep a lid on explosive tensions. This comes as Iran makes its peace with the West. President Hassan Rouhani has agreed to eliminate Iran's stocks of 20% enriched uranium. Iran will submit to daily inspections of its Fordo enrichment site. The first phase of the deal will come into force next week. Julian Jessop from Capital Economics says

more oil will start to come on to the market as the sanctions are softened. Meanwhile Libya may add 1 million bpd to global supply this year. Bank of America says a return of Iran and Libya could add up to 3 million bpd. Each 1 million bpd of this "positive supply shock" could shave $20 off the world oil price, unless Opec's fractious cartel slashes output quickly enough to offset it. We should expect hot words at Opec summits, and plenty of cheating. It is hazardous to make assumptions about Middle East politics, not least with the Shia-Sunni conflict spreading from Iraq and Syria to the whole region in what looks disturbingly like the onset of the Catholic-Lutheran showdown in Europe's Thirty Years War. The uprising by Sunnis in the Iraqi region of Anbar has revived fears of a full-blown civil war. Iraqi oil output has crashed to 2 million bpd for several months as al- Qaeda attacks the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. Yet the latest turmoil cuts both ways for oil prices. Any calming of tensions could lead to a rapid rebound in output. The growth of US "broad" M3 money has slowed to 4.6% even before Fed tapering cuts off stimulus. In the eurozone it has been near zero for six months. The latest data from China is very weak. China is riding a $24 trillion credit tiger that it cannot easily control. Fresh data shows that fixed investment surged to $5 trillion last year, more than in the US and Europe combined. This implies yet more excess capacity, transmitting a deflationary impulse worldwide. Half of Europe already has one foot in deflation, with prices falling over the past five months, once austerity taxes are stripped out. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Daily Telegraph (England), 16 Jan 14 (Thanks to TDLr Elizabeth Hamilton, United Kingdom) 5. Most traditional TV networks have struggled to hold on to their audiences in recent years as competition intensifies, including online. But business television has faced the added challenge that individual investors are fleeing the stock market as an increasing amount of trading is done by institutional investors and algorithms, market experts say. By one measure, individual investors have pulled more than $1.17 trillion from the equity mutual funds tracked by research firm EPFR since the beginning of 2008. Keach Hagey & William Launder, Wall Street Journal, 3 Dec 13 Ed: Yet leading market averages have risen since 2009. This is an extremely rare bull market during an economic Depression. Such negativity is often the time to buy. By DITPON, the Dines Theory of Positive Negativism, (see Mass Psychology book, page 329). 3D PRINTING 6. Hundreds of small shops across the US are leveraging technology to meet demand for low volume, highly-customizable products. Other companies, such as Etsy and TechShop, serve as online marketplaces or starting grounds for tiny manufacturers to churn out new inventory in metal, wood and even fabric. Makers of dies and machine tools have increased employment by about 18% since August 2009, compared with a 2.9% gain for overall manufacturing. The growth in low-volume, high-variability production is catching the attention of companies such as Walmart Stores. Mom-and-pop operations are picking up manufacturing,

doing it in a highly flexible, highly local kind of way. This is something that's going to permeate through the whole manufacturing economy. We gave up on manufacturing too soon. The US has regained about 503,000 of the 2.3 million factory jobs lost in the aftermath of the 18-month recession that ended June 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Specialty operations are finding new opportunities because of 3D printers. More than 58% of small shops added new machines for so-called additive technology in 2012, the third year of gains since the recession ended, according to Wohlers Report. A new army of entrepreneurs also is leveraging connectivity and 3D printing to create demand for manufacturing from the grass-roots. Some entrepreneurs are skipping the middleman and going into production themselves, said Brandi Tysinger-Temple, CEO and founder of Lolly Wolly Doodle, a children's clothing line in Lexington, NC, that gets many customers through Facebook. Because the equipment can be programmed. Ryan Lorenz, CEO of body jewelry maker Omerica Organic says he is devoting 20% of output to outside work. He can make products ranging from wooden parts for musical instruments to knives. Omerica Organic started in 2004 to make small wooden jewelry called plugs, used by customers to insert in their earlobes. There's a whole ecosystem being created and people are creating their own jobs in ways that are probably not even being counted. As technology such as 3D printing gets less expensive, it also can supplant manufacturers that don't adapt. A key tool is the MakerBot Replicator 2, a $2,199 3D printer that creates computer programmed shapes out of plastic (MakerBot owned by Stratasys). Jeff Green, Bloomberg News, 9 Nov 13 (Thanks to TDLr John Schloegel, Florida) Ed: Buy and hold our recommended 3D printing stocks. 7. Last spring, news that a functioning plastic handgun had been created using a 3D printer, and that the file for making the gun was available online, led several city and state legislators to introduce bills banning 3D-printed guns. However, 3D printers -- which create customized objects on demand, based on digital instructions -- are already widespread. Banning one type of 3D- printed object would be futile and could push 3D printing "underground," at the expense of important scientific and medical advances. Many 3D printers work somewhat like inkjet printers do, depositing layers of material that can be plastic, metal, or even living cells. Since the first demonstration of this technology in the 1980s, numerous 3D printers have come on the market, and more should be showing up within the next year as the original patents expire. "3D printing is not just a device, it's an entire ecosystem of contributing technologies that give new capabilities," said technology analyst Melba Kurman. 3D printers have been used to create keys that can open master locks. In theory, they could also be used to build advanced weapons or to counterfeit machinery parts intended to break and cause catastrophic failure. Some security solutions may come in the form of the technology itself. For example, Microsoft has demonstrated a method of embedding microbubbles within 3D-printed objects, in patterns that encode information. Such tags might potentially be used to trace the objects back to their source.

Science Ed: How might individuals printing their own guns affect society? GEOPOLITICS 8. As New Year approached a century ago, most people in the West looked forward to 1914 with optimism. Yet within a year, the world was embroiled in a most horrific war. It cost 9-million lives -- and many times that number if you take in the various geopolitical tragedies it left in its wake, from the creation of Soviet Russia to the too-casual redrawing of Middle Eastern borders and the rise of Hitler. Yet the parallels remain troubling. The United States is Britain, the superpower on the wane, unable to guarantee global security. Its main trading partner, China, plays the part of Germany, a new economic power bristling with nationalist indignation and building up its armed forces rapidly. Modern Japan is France, an ally of the retreating hegemon and a declining regional power. The most troubling similarity between 1914 and now is complacency. Businesspeople today are like businesspeople then: too busy making money to notice the serpents flickering at the bottom of their trading screens. Politicians are playing with nationalism just as they did 100 years ago. China's leaders whip up Japanophobia, using it as cover for economic reforms, while Shinzo Abe stirs Japanese nationalism for similar reasons. India may next year elect Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist who refuses to atone for a pogrom against Muslims in the state he runs and who would have his finger on the button of a potential nuclear conflict with his Muslim neighbors in Pakistan. Vladimir Putin has been content to watch Syria rip itself apart. And the European Union, which came together in reaction to the bloodshed of the 20th century, is looking more fractious and riven by incipient nationalism than at any point since its formation. Nobody is quite clear what will happen when North Korea implodes, but America and China need to plan ahead if they are to safeguard its nuclear program without antagonizing each other. China is playing an elaborately dangerous game of "chicken" around its littoral with its neighbors. Eventually, somebody is bound to crash into somebody else -- and there is as yet no system for dealing with it. A code of maritime conduct for the area is needed. The chances are that none of the world's present dangers will lead to anything that compares to the horrors of 1914. Madness, whether motivated by race, religion or tribe, usually gives ground to rational self- interest. But when it triumphs, it leads to carnage, so to assume that reason will prevail is to be culpably complacent. That is the lesson of a century ago. Economist (England) LATEST ON GOLD 9. Given the assumption that the dollar will depreciate and that the US government will issue far more debt to inflate its way out of its fiscal hole, investors from abroad are likely to seek to purchase more hard assets and fewer financial investments. Meanwhile, the Chinese government's concern with the riskiness of financial assets in the US is clear. It has already trimmed its purchases of the debt of the mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as corporate debt and shares, concentrating its purchases in Treasuries alone. Moreover, China has not hesitated to communicate its displeasure with US policies and

politics. After the debt-rating downgrade earlier, China was vocal in noting that the country could no longer "borrow its way out of messes of its own making." In the past few weeks, China has also let its currency appreciate at a swifter rate. As that trend continues, assets abroad, especially in the US, will become ever more of a bargain. The perceptions of a creditor nation will always matter more than those of a debtor one. Over time China will target more US acquisitions and the US will just have to get used to it. The fact that beggars can not be choosers is true for nations as well as individuals. Henny Sender, Financial Times (London) Ed: Read 'em and weep. 10. Japan is on track to win its war on deflation with the latest consumer price inflation figures showing the highest reading since the country slipped into deflation 15 years ago. The figures suggest the country is on track to hit the 2% inflation target set almost a year ago and that monetary easing efforts are beginning to bear fruit. Jennifer Thompson & Ben McLannahan, Financial Times, (London), 1 Dec 13 Ed: "War on Deflation" could be won by balancing its budget and linking its paper currency to gold and silver. And how does Japan know inflation will stop rising at 2%, that might morph into an uncontrollable hyperinflation? Japan's deflation began in 1990, 24 years ago. TDL's "Sell" signal in 1989 still stands, if only because the nation is stuck in the Low State of Hyperneeding to be Right. LATEST ON THE COMING POLICE STATE (ORWELL'S "1984") 11. The National Security Agency has implanted software in nearly 100,000 computers around the world that allows the US to conduct surveillance on those machines and can also create a digital highway for launching cyberattacks. The NSA has increasingly made use of a secret technology that enables it to enter and alter data in computers even if they are not connected to the Internet, according to NSA documents, computer experts and US officials. San Francisco Chronicle Ed: No place for privacy in an Orwellian 1984. TPG 12. Americans enter 2014 with a profoundly negative view of their government, expressing little hope that elected officials can or will solve the nation's biggest problems, a new poll finds. Half say America's system of democracy needs "a lot of changes." The percentage of Americans saying the nation is heading in the right direction hasn't topped 50 in about a decade. In the new poll, 70% lack confidence in the government's ability "to make progress on the important problems and issues facing the country in 2014." A narrow majority say they'd do a better job running the country than today's leaders in Washington. Asked generally about the role of government in society, the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll finds Americans divided on how active they want government to be. Half say "the less government the better." However, almost as many (48%) say "there are more things that government should be doing." Associated Press, 3 Jan 14 Ed: Such as resigning. HEALTH 13. This summer in Australia, beachgoers looking to avoid sharks

can just follow their activity on Twitter. Government researchers have tagged 338 sharks with transmitters that alert a computer when they swim within half a mile of a beach, NPR reported. The computer then sends out a Twitter message with the shark's location. You can follow their activity on the Surf Life Saving Western Australia account at @SLSWA. San Francisco Chronicle, 7 Jan 14 Ed: Hmpth. We could use some of those transmitters to detect approaching taxpigs. 14. A man missing his lower leg has gained precise control over his prosthetic limb, just by thinking about moving it -- all because his unused nerves were preserved during the amputation and diverted to his thigh where they communicate with a robotic leg. He can now seamlessly switch from walking on level ground to climbing stairs and can even kick a football around (see him in action at bit.ly/roboticleg). During traditional amputation, sensory nerves are severed and lose their function. They could preserve some of that functionality by rerouting sensory nerves and attaching them to another part of the body. The nerve signals were then available for a robotic limb. The procedure is called targeted muscle reinnervation (TMR). The robot leg already carries a number of mechanical sensors including gyroscopes and accelerometers, and uses information from these sensors for certain walking styles. Colin Barras, New Scientist Ed: Bless modern medicine. NOTICE As always, the press is welcome to excerpt brief quotes from TDL and IWB, but not our recommended stocks which are for paid subscribers only. Those who use our work without having paid for it are in the Low State of Stealing and, as a result, will find a way to lose money doing it. Please do not forward our work to cheaters, who will hear from our Legal Department. (c) 2014, James Dines & Co Inc. All Rights.

Interim Warning Bulletin, 21 Feb 2014, Vol 2014, #3 Leading stock averages rose last October, November and December in an uninterrupted Uptrend, but then dropped and broke Uptrendlines in January -- and have been rallying since 4 Feb 14. This normally implies a neutral Congestion Area forming, either to be a springboard for new highs, or a Top Formation. More on this in the next TDL, but for the moment choppy and lateral markets should be expected. Some economic mysteries are clarifying, and our latest take starts with a growing realization that business internationally continues to weaken, as politicians worldwide complain about the lack of sufficient jobs. There is also a growing unease about the geopolitical situation, but not yet a recognition that this is a World War. For the record, even now we have seen nothing about a coming World War anywhere else in the world's press. There are also comments in the mainstream press that the world is in a persistent deflation, explaining why flailing efforts to create inflation have been failing. Governments continue to print too much money and have lowered interest rates as low as they could realistically go, such that growing numbers of fearfuls have begun a flight to the safety of gold and silver. We had been puzzled that gold and silver mining shares were rising while not the actual bullions. It was because miners' costs were declining while commodity prices were firm, resulting in more profits for miners. Recent currency plunges in many nations lowered the domestic costs of mining companies in local currencies. Meanwhile, commodities produced are sold in stronger US dollars, so the spread between lower costs and higher selling prices improved the financial situation for mining stocks. Accordingly, stocks in the Raw Materials Sector have risen even while many other stocks have not fared as well. Some money is flowing into precious metals seeking "safe harbor" from alarming geopolitical developments: For example, we are frankly frightened by the proposed Saudi shipments of mobile anti-aircraft missiles to Syrian rebels. We might explore these themes in more detail in our upcoming TDL. Investors have sought refuge for some capital by investing in the stock market, albeit for those who could handle the risks. In that regard we are pleased to note that our stops on leading averages were not triggered by the latest market weakness, with the sole exception of the Nasdaq Composite, only because of an intraday dip two points below our stop. The fact that none of our other averages got stopped out induces us to reinstate the "Buy" signal with the new stop at 4,048. We have been encouraged by the spreading strength in the precious-metals arena. Gold and silver billions have improved markedly since our last IWB, and it might be recalled that we had spurned the precious metals rally last summer as a "bull trap," which indeed it turned out to have been, as the precious metals subsequently dropped to new lows. However, while the current rise has more authenticity to it, our reliable Technical Indicators are still mixed; we are nonetheless turning more bullish on them, albeit with some caution and properly-placed stops protecting positions where applicable. We added a gold stock (Agnico- Eagle) in the IWB of 27 Jan 14, and flashed a "Buy" signal on silver stocks (DISSA) in our IWB of 4 Feb 14. It is remarkable that it took so long for the Raw Material Sector to move up, five years

after leading averages made their lows in March 2009, but better late than never. Interestingly, it is not just the precious metals, but there is even strength to be found in the entirely-scorned uraniums for example, even though the price of uranium has not yet risen. We hereby celebrate the event by re-adding Cameco Corp (CCJ-US$21; CCO.TO-Cdn$23.53) to Supervised List #6, guarded by an initial stop at 18 (Cdn). The Rare Earths are also perking up, with favored Tasman having tripled from its low reached on 15 Apr 2013. Flinders, our entry in a steel industry recovery, has not yet risen, but should join the parade, by DIWPAT (The Dines Wolfpack Theory - Dinesism #10 in your Mass Psychology book, page 328). Meanwhile, the stock market continues to act well, having impressively absorbed the January selling wave, and several of our favorites are not only scrambling toward new highs, but some have even burst into new all-time high ground (see List #2, Stock #3,; List #2, Stock #4; List #4, Stock #1; List #4, Stock #3; List #4, Stock #5; and List #5, Stock #2.) Among the 3D printing stocks, List #1, Stock #5 is acting best, but we still think highly of the prospects of List #1, Stock #4. List #5, Stock #3 looks ready for an Upside Breakout. Trigger Box: Nasdaq Composite: New Short-Term "Buy" -- stop 4,048 -- and Intermediate-Term raise stop to 3,783. No other meaningful changes in our Trigger Box. Supervised Lists: The following changes to our six Supervised Lists are: List #1 : Upgrade Stock #1 to "Buy." List #2: Raise stop for Stock #3 to 28; upgrade Stock #4 to "Buy" and raise its stop to 61; lower stop on Stock #6 to 10.5. List #3: Upgrade all six stocks in List #3 to "Buy on dips"; raise stop for Stock #5 to 12; raise stop for Stock #6 (added by IWB of 27 Jan 14) to 27. List #4: Raise stop for Stock #1 to 1127; raise stop for Stock #3 to 69; raise stop for Stock #4 to 52; raise stop for Stock #5 to 72. List #5: Raise stop for Stock #2 to 28; raise stop for Stock #6 to 16. List #6: Upgrade Stocks #1 & #2 to "Buy," Downgrade Stock #4 to "Hold." Next TDL scheduled for 28 Feb 14. CONDENSED, SELECTED EXCERPTS FOR BUSY TDLRS: Latest on the Coming 1984 "Privacy is dead in the digital world that we live in. Unless you are comfortable putting that statement on a billboard in Times Square and having everyone see it, I would not share that information digitally." Michael Sutton, vice-president of security research at San Jose-based Zscaler, on news of documents leaked by Edward Snowden showing US and British agencies have infiltrated mobile software, seeking details about users' comings and goings and their social affiliations. San Francisco Chronicle, 30 Jan 14 Ed: Our privacy has been stealthily seized without compensation. Has anybody else read the 4th Amendment to the US Constitution we

used to have? HEALTH: Intelligent Parasites 1. At the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology (SICB) an ecoimmunologist added to a growing catalog of parasites -- that manipulate the behavior of their hosts to improve their chances for survival and spread. Killifish infected with a certain flatworm flash their sides in the sun, attracting fish- eating herons, enabling the parasite to enter the avian stage of its life. And rats infected by the protozoan Toxoplasma gondii become less afraid of cats, the mammal in which the parasite actually reproduces. Another manipulative parasite -- a fungus that infects carpenter ants, causes an ant to leave its colony, climb a tree, chomp down on a twig or the underside of a leaf and die, freeing fungal spores to fall onto the ground, where they can reinfect new ants. Darwin's contemporary, Alfred Russel Wallace, described this fungus growing out of ants' heads in the mid-1800s, but not until 2009 did David Hughes, a Penn State behavioral ecologist, document the suicidal behavior it caused. Researchers say there are now too many examples to dismiss the role of parasites in animal behavior. Elizabeth Pennisi, Science Magazine, 17 Jan 14 Ed: We wonder whether the stock market manipulates us comparably. Flu 2. Cases of the new H7N9 avian influenza in China are surging alarmingly. There are now 300 confirmed cases, with more appearing every day. Roughly a quarter of the victims have died. The first human cases were reported only last March. By contrast, the H5N1 influenza virus, another lethal strain that jumped from birds to people, first appeared in 2003 and took almost five years to reach the 300-case mark. At the same time, an even newer avian flu in China has killed its first human victim. That strain, known as H10N8 has been confirmed in only two people. (Influenzas are described by the shapes of two protuberances on their surfaces: the hemagglutinin "spike," or "H," that attaches to cells, and the neuraminidase "helicopter," or "N," that chops off receptors, allowing new viruses to escape. There are 18 known types of H and 11 of N.) Birds appear to be spreading the H7N9 virus more through their breath than through feces, the normal infection route. Monitoring the spread of the H7N9 and H10N8 viruses is difficult because neither makes chickens sick. Although human-to-human transmission of the H7N9 virus has not been confirmed, there have been clusters of two or three cases within families. Donald G McNeil Jr, New York Times, 3 Feb 14 Sugar 3. Could too much sugar be deadly? The biggest study of its kind suggests the answer is yes. It doesn't take all that much extra sugar, hidden in many processed foods, to substantially raise the risk, and most Americans eat more than the safest amount. For someone who normally eats 2,000 calories daily, even consuming two 12-ounce cans of soda substantially increases the risk. The study appeared in JAMA Internal Medicine. Scientists aren't certain exactly how sugar may contribute to deadly heart problems, but it has been shown to increase blood pressure and levels of unhealthy cholesterol and triglycerides; and also may increase signs of inflammation linked with heart disease, said Rachel Johnson, head of the American Heart Association's nutrition committee. More than 30,000 American adults were

involved. In the new study obesity didn't explain the link between sugary diets and death. That link was found even in normal-weight people who ate lots of added sugar. Adults who got at least 25 percent of their calories from added sugar were almost three times more likely to die of heart problems than those who consumed the least -- less than 10 percent. Associated Press, 4 Feb 14 Ed: Sugar is a choice. GEOPOLITICAL 1. Thousands of Muslims tried to flee the violence in the Central African Republic's capital as crowds of angry Christians shouted "We're going to kill you all." France's former colony is mired in unprecedented sectarian fighting. Associated Press, 15 Feb 14 2. The foreign militants battling Malian and French troops across northern Mali are part of a little-noticed but hugely important shift. American policy makers have long treated the Middle East and South Asia as the main battlegrounds of the war on terror, but those regions are quickly being joined by Africa, which is now home to some of the largest and most active Islamist militias in the world. Malian jihadists with French passports could spread across the continent to strike European targets, as well as American embassies, schools, and military bases. Fears about Africa's emergence as a terror haven are unlikely to subside anytime soon. Africa's Islamists are able to take advantage of the fact that many of the continent's countries have porous borders; weak and corrupt central governments; undertrained and underequipped militaries; flourishing drug trades that provide a steady source of income; and vast, lawless spaces that are so large -- and so far away from major American military bases, like those in the Middle East and Afghanistan -- that it would be difficult for the US to mount effective counterterror efforts even if the war-weary Obama administration chose to do so. Those are precisely the reasons (along with a trove of Libyan weapons) Islamists were able to conquer northern Mali and use it as a base for planning the strikes on the uranium mine in Niger and the natural-gas plant in Algeria. Those are also the reasons American officials worry that a successful terror attack in the US or Europe planned in Africa and carried out by African extremists is only a matter of time. The new face of militant Islam, in other words, is likely to be an African one. The Tuareg, a light- skinned Berber people have been agitating for the creation of an independent state for more than 50 years. The Malian army had managed to put down previous Tuareg uprisings, in 1962, 1990 and 2007, but the uprising that began in February 2012 was very different. Thousands of young Tuareg men had served in the Libyan military during the long reign of Muammar Qaddafi. When he was deposed in 2011, the Tuareg fighters returned to Mali with mortars, anti-tank missiles, and other advanced weaponry that they'd looted from his armories. The US didn't see it coming and the Islamists conquest of the north put the White House in a bind. American officials believe that Mali's Islamists aren't yet capable of carrying out attacks in Europe or the US. The US is almost always reacting to attacks rather than trying to prevent new ones. In Yemen, for instance, the Obama administration didn't begin hammering al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula with drone strikes until after the terror group came close to downing a packed passenger jet on Christmas Day and managed to sneak a pair of explosive-laden packages onto a cargo plane bound for Chicago.

The US has largely ignored Africa's Islamists for more than a decade. We keep doing so at our own peril. Yochi Dreazen, The Atlantic Magazine Ed: Yet another war that America is losing. And TDL's warnings that Africa is at risk are finally appearing in the mainstream press. 3. Nearly half a mile beneath the surface of the Pacific, southwest of Oahu, lie massive remains tied to a stunning tale from the last days of World War II and the first days of the Cold War that followed. Archaeologists using Pisces V, a manned submersible operated by the Hawaii Undersea Research Laboratory, found the wreck of I-400, a Japanese submarine remarkable not only for its size (400 feet long, twice that of a German U-boat), but also for its capabilities (it held three aircraft with folding wings that could be launched by catapult) and mission (its crew trained to attack the Panama Canal). Following the end of hostilities in the Pacific, the Allies had agreed to share military technology seized from Japanese forces. But I-400 and its sister vessels were simply too advanced and important -- the United States scuttled the ships rather than share their secrets with the Soviets. Samir S Patel, Archaeology Magazine, Mar/Apr 2014 THE COMING CURRENCY CRISIS 1. Nigeria's central bank pledged to convert almost a 10th of Nigeria's $43bn reserves from dollars to the Chinese currency. "Ultimately the renminbi is likely to become a global convertible currency," Kingsley Moghalu, the deputy governor explained. Only 0.1% of central bank foreign reserves are held in renminbi, compared with 60% in dollars and 25% in euros. Such forecasts have much to do with China's rising economic might and the gradual liberalization of its currency. But they reflect alarm and irritation about America too. The US current account deficit prompted economists and investors to warn of a looming dollar decline. Hence the keenness of Nigeria and others to reduce their exposure to the US currency and escape from being tethered to swings in American policy. But there is a paradox. While common sense would say that these developments should have sparked a dollar crisis, precisely the opposite occurred. Against a trade- weighted basket of currencies, the value of the dollar is little changed from 2008. And while the dollar's role as a reference currency has diminished in recent years (for example, because more oil is being priced in euros), it remains pre-eminent as a store of value. Foreigners continue to flood into American assets, buying 60% of all US debt issues since 2008, because America is recovering and the Federal Reserve is tapering its asset purchases, developments that support the dollar's value. But there is another reason that goes beyond economics: fear. In the past decade emerging market countries have amassed highly- rated government bonds as a defence against market turmoil. Regulators have pressurized western banks into doing the same. But there are now few genuinely safe assets. In a world where even US government debt no longer seems risk-free, asset managers have rushed toward the second-best option: a flight to liquidity, not safety. In that respect, America reigns supreme. Its capital markets are deep and the pool of dollars seems bottomless. The dollar turns the normal rules of economics on their head: the dollar has become ultra-attractive because of a bountiful supply, not because it has been constrained. Foreign investors will keep

gobbling up American assets. The sheer range of alternatives makes it difficult for any single currency to rival the greenback, a fact that the dollar's discontents do not like to acknowledge. Least of all amid emerging markets turmoil, which is likely to intensify the dollar rush -- and the paradox. Gillian Tett, Financial Times (London), 7 Feb 14 Ed: World-class reporting. 2. Argentina's government accused businesses of orchestrating speculative attacks against emerging-market currencies including the Argentine peso, as it injected more US dollars into the economy on Tuesday to try and calm nerves after last week's devaluation. Mrs Kirchner, attending a regional summit in Cuba, blamed Argentina's currency woes on banks, exporters and businesses. Other central banks in developing markets that have recently seen turmoil, such as Turkey and India, also intervened in their financial markets. Investors have worried over signs the US Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy, and China's slowing growth. But in Argentina, many economists say the economy has been hurt by high public spending, which has led to high inflation, an overvalued currency and a weakening trade surplus that threatens the government's dwindling supply of hard currency. Wall Street Journal, 29 Jan 14 Ed: Socialists keep "injecting" cash, creating more inflation, and rising prices -- and then blaming everybody else. The real culprits are socialist governments. Unless Argentina changes course, it is headed for serious troubles and a predictable revolution. WHICH WAY THE ECONOMY? 1. Europe's low inflation rate has become the new focal point for those who believe the euro zone is doomed to disaster. Inflation in the zone fell to just 0.8% in December, well below the European Central Bank target of "close to but below 2%." In Greece, inflation is already negative, while in Spain, Portugal and Ireland it ranges between 0.2% and 0.3%. That is fueling fears the currency area could tip into outright deflation, as Japan did in the 1990s when falling prices led to prolonged stagnation. Consumers held off purchases as they waited for goods to become cheaper, causing growth to stall and the debt burdens to rise. Wall Street Journal, 21 Jan 14 Ed: Would some TDLr in Japan please inform its leaders that deflation is a hangover from overprinting money in the 1980s? So printing much more money has prevented healing it? 2. The American economy is growing by about 2% a year, which is quite slow by historical standards of recovery. At this rate, it will take nearly three years before the unemployment rate reaches 5%. Rising inequality, particularly in America, has three interrelated main causes: first, the rise of information technology and its ever-growing role in work; second, a supply shortage of workers with the skills to adapt to change in the labor market; third, the weak rates of secondary school and university completion. Over the past 20 years, huge advances in IT have driven a sharp increase in demand for highly educated workers. This is true in many industries that were never before regarded as technology-intensive, such as real estate. This trend will only accelerate. Unfortunately, the supply of skilled American workers has been relatively flat for about 30 years. This is mainly because the average number of years of completed schooling has been stuck at roughly 12. The US was once the world

leader in secondary-school graduation rates but it now ranks near the bottom of OECD nations on this count. At university level it is still a leader in attendance but completion rates have fallen behind. Only half of students who enroll ultimately receive a degree. These weaknesses in education are a major cause of widening income inequality. Thirty years ago, full-time workers with a university degree earned 40% more on average than those who had only completed secondary school. In 2010, according to the US Labor Department, the difference was 83%. A postgraduate degree now leads to 300% higher earnings on average. These gaps also have been widening in European countries. Roger Altman, Financial Times (London) Ed: American education has failed miserably despite gargantuan amounts of money thrown at it, so Washington blames "capitalists" for income inequality. Education in US "Government schools" needs to be turned over to free-market capitalism. NOTICE As always, the press is welcome to excerpt brief quotes from TDL and IWB, but not our recommended stocks which are for paid subscribers only. Those who use our work without having paid for it are in the Low State of Stealing and, as a result, will find a way to lose money doing it. Please do not forward our work to cheaters, who will hear from our Legal Department. (c) 2014, James Dines & Co Inc. All Rights Reserved.  

Interim  Warning  Bulletin  26  August  2015  VOl  2015,  #9            Within  one  day  after  our  last  IWB  flashing  its  "Sell"  signal,  stock  markets  worldwide  plummeted  precisely  with  the  classic  and  violent  Downside  Breakout  that  we  had  been  expecting.  The  accompanying  excerpts  summarize  how  the  Mass  Media  has  been  reacting.          Looking  for  someone  to  blame,  we  regard  as  nonsense  scapegoating  China's  latest  currency  devaluations.  Actually  TDL  gave  China's  currency  little  weight  compared  with  other  factors  -­‐-­‐  yet  we  called  the  outcome  correctly  -­‐-­‐  so  we'll  stick  with  our  own  theories.          Such  vehement  Downside  Breakouts  are  usually  followed  by  bear  markets  rather  than  mere  Corrections,  because  they  have  a  serious  impact  on  Mass  Psychology  -­‐-­‐  or  reflect  their  collective  sentiment.  Having  sprung  from  out  of  the  bushes  while  the  wealthy  were  lazing  in  the  late  summer  sunshine,  the  surprised  shock  usually  needs  Mass  Fear  to  completely  dissipate  the  previous  Mass  Greed.  Granted,  bonds  had  a  knee-­‐jerk  rally,  nonetheless  we  regard  such  strength  as  untrustable  and  therefore  probably  a  trap,  so  we  maintain  our  bearish  stance  on  them.          Mutual  funds  with  record-­‐low  cash  positions  indicate  that  Big  Capital  was  caught  fully  invested  and,  as  the  tide  goes  out,  we'll  soon  see  which  money  managers  had  been  swimming  without  a  bathing  suit.  Money  managers  must  at  least  be  in  an  early  stage  of  Mass  Fear,  as  leading  stocks  have  not  only  taken  the  proverbial  "haircut,"  but  more  like  a  scalping.          Powerful  forces  have  also  been  unleashed  by  the  Downside  Breakout  to  include  governments,  especially  in  America,  which  traditionally  revs  up  its  presidential  campaigns  around  this  time  in  the  year  before  such  elections.  The  din  on  television  flogging  candidates  will  next  be  unbearable  until  8  Nov  16.          Meanwhile  The  Herd  is  still  mumbling  incantations  about  whether  the  Fed  would  in  September  finally  raise  interest  rates  for  the  first  time  in  a  decade.  Interest  rate  fluctuations  have  had  no  effect  on  prosperity  so  far,  so  only  economists  who  are  plain  fools  believe  that  hiking  interest  rates  -­‐-­‐  probably  by  a  measly  1/4  of  1%  -­‐-­‐  would  have  any  serious  impact  on  the  underlying  realities.  As  proof,  we  predict  the  first  thing  governments  will  do  with  their  so-­‐called  "toolbox"  is  to  print  more  money  and  cut  interest  rates.  Duh.  Unfortunately  interest  rates  are  already  so  low  that  in  some  countries  are  actually  below  zero.  The  WEE  (Washington  Economic  Establishment)  would  do  anything  other  than  admit  that  their  crackpot  Keynesian  economic  policies  have  been  utter  failures.  They  should  soon  at  last,  ask,  "What  do  we  do  now?"          That  would  be  the  beginning  of  enlightenment  as  it  emerges  from  endarkenment,  and  the  reply  is  "resign."  It  will  be  a  crucial  moment,  comparable  with  individuals  having  achieved  their  life's  goals  but  concluding  they  did  not  want  the  reward  they  had  so  assiduously  sought  -­‐-­‐  leading  to  the  infamous  "mid-­‐life  crisis"  described  in  our  High  States  book.          The  world's  media  needs  to  switch  from  the  fanatic  harping  on  the  economic  

impact  on  the  world  by  tiny  Greece,  and  shifting  to  China.  Even  now,  the  media  is  grudgingly  accepting  that  China's  economy  is  "slowing,"  blandly  overlooking  that  only  a  month  ago  they  were  stuck  in  the  "7%  GDP  growth"  mantra  about  China  -­‐-­‐  which  TDL  brushed  aside  as  a  "lie"  by  China's  economists.  Again,  we  part  with  the  majority  and  insist  that  it  is  increasingly  likely  China's  economy  will  suffer  a  depression.  That  is,  unless  it  is  handled  with  deep  knowledge  of  the  underlying  realities.  In  other  words,  the  truth.  Especially  about  currencies.          What  should  TDLrs  do  next?  First  of  all,  there  should  be  an  inviting  "Technical  Rally,"  if  only  because  stocks  are  "Oversold."  But  the  odds  will  be  heavily  against  this  rising  right  back  up  to  all-­‐time  highs.  If  the  rally  occurs,  the  rally  should  fizzle  out  well  below  the  all-­‐time  highs  and  then  move  to  the  next  phase  of  the  bear  market.  We  carefully  considered  flashing  a  "Buy"  in  this  IWB,  but  we  are  uncertain  how  high  a  rally  might  go  and  these  are  very  "fast  markets"  untrustable  for  average  investors.  TDL  instead  chose  the  conservative  path  of  waiting  to  see  what  governments  and  investors  do  next.          We  are  by  no  means  counting  China  out,  if  only  because  it  has  the  world's  largest  reserves  of  foreign  exchange  (Forex),  actually  over  $3.6  trillion.  However  internal  debts  are  largely  unknown,  even  to  Beijing,  although  we  suspect  they  are  recklessly  high,  and  we  have  been  predicting  a  crash  in  the  real  estate  and  banking  sectors  that  would  radiate  out  of  China  to  some  of  its  neighboring  countries.        We  are  choosing  to  wait  to  see  how  that  evolves,  especially  to  study  the  shifting  winds  that  should  come  next,  with  announcements  by  those  who  have  had  time  to  recover  from  the  shock  and  declare  their  intentions.  We  have  predicted  that  the  next  rally  would  be  led  by  anti-­‐hacking  stocks.  We  are  comfortable  that  we  have  prepared  you  well,  holding  cash  and  keeping  in  mind  Dinesism  #38  (DIRICHPOOR),  "Rich  or  poor,  it's  good  to  have  a  lot  of  cash."  TDLrs  should  feel  free  to  quote  us  on  that!        The  function  of  IWB  is  "insurance"  against  meaningful  changes  between  TDLs,  in  this  case  updating  the  Trigger  Box  (below).    TDL'S  TRIGGER  BOX  (Hourly  Prices  for  DJI)  for  Serious  Market  Students  This  is  not  intended  to  be  advice  for  speculation  in  commodities  futures.  Updated  by  IWBs.  All  Super  Major  signals  have  been  bearish  since  2001,  see  DJI  adjusted  for  inflation  on  page  40  of  the  2015  Annual  Forecast  Issue  (also  in  our  TDL  of  6  Aug  2015,  page  15).    Latest  Stops                DJI        DJT        DJU        NASDAQ        S&P  500  Short-­‐Term:                Sell        Sell        Sell            Sell                              Sell  Intermediate-­‐Term:        Sell        Sell        Sell            Sell                              Sell    1.  DJI:  Still  on  Short-­‐Term  "Sell,"  although  getting  Oversold  enough  for  a  rally  soon.  The  high  for  the  year  was  reached  on  19  May  2015,  but  if  there  is  a  decisive  Upside  Breakout  to  18,500,  then  flash  a  new  "Buy"  signal  with  an  initial  stop  at  18,000  until  we  have  had  a  chance  to  reflect  and    respond.  Intermediate-­‐Term  "Sell,"  but  trigger  

new  "Buy"  on  rise  to  19,000.  2.  DJT:  Still  on  Short-­‐Term  "Sell,"  with  "Buy  stop"  at  8,910.  Intermediate-­‐Term  "Sell;"  "Buy  stop"  at  9,400.  This  is  a  confounding  Top  formation  during  a  time  of  low  fuel  prices  that  has  usually  been  bullish  for  Transports;  we  interpret  our  Sell,  despite  bullishly  depressed  fuel  prices,  as  a  negative  sign  for  the  overall  market.  3.  DJU:  Still  on  Short-­‐Term  "Sell"  flashed  by  IWB  was  a  hole-­‐in-­‐one,  within  1  day  of  its  all-­‐time  high  on  29  Jan  2015;  repurchase  at  620.  Intermediate-­‐Term  "Sell";  repurchase  at  640.  July/August  rally  driven  by  those  seeking  perceived  safety  and  income:  should  end  soon.  4.  Bonds:  No  changes.  Historically  overpriced,  sell  and  run  for  your  life.  5.  NASDAQ  Composite:    Short-­‐Term  "Sell;"  upgrade  to  Neutral  on  an  unlikely  rally  to  5,300;  subsequentially  add  initial  stop  at  4,300.  Oversold  enough  to  launch  a  rally.  Intermediate-­‐Term  "Sell"  triggered  on  the  decline  to  4,690  on  24  Aug  2015.  Upgrade  to  Neutral  on  an  unlikely  rally  to  5,300;  initial  stop  at  4,300.  6.  S&P  500:  Short-­‐Term  "Sell"  was  flashed  by  IWB  19  Aug  2015,  one  day  before  the  big  market  plunge  started.  Initial  stop  cover  on  an  unlikely  rise  to  2,150.  Intermediate-­‐Term    "Sell";  new  "Buy"  would  be  triggered  by  a  rise  to  2,200  with  subsequent  stop  raised  to  2,050.  7.  Gold  Bullion  (London):  Short-­‐Term  "Sell".  A  new  "Buy"  signal  would  be  triggered  by  an  unlikely  rally  to  $1,300.  Gold  in  US  dollars  has  dropped  more  steeply  than  gold  in  other  currencies,  such  as  Euros,  Swiss  Francs,  and  Canadian  dollars  (see  chart  on  page  11  of  last  TDL).  It  would  now  take  an  Upside  Breakout  at  $1,400  to  begin  to  shift  percentages  to  much  higher  prices,  but  it  would  then  advance  quickly,  so  some  golds  and  silvers  are  okay  to  maintain  in  long-­‐term  portfolios  in  case  we  miss  the  Bottom.  The  Intermediate-­‐Term  "Buy"  signal  was  flashed  at  $919  on  15  Dec  2008;  stop  $920.  Long-­‐Term  Super  Major  "Buy"  was  flashed  at  $288  on  25  Sep  2001;  no  stop  yet.      CONDENSED,  SELECTED,  INFORMATIONAL  EXCERPTS  FOR  BUSY  TDLRS    LATEST  ON  CHINA:  1.  A  tumultuous  fall  in  Chinese  equities  dubbed  "Black  Monday"  by  Xinhua,  the  official  state  news  agency,  triggered  a  ferocious  sell-­‐off  in  international  markets  yesterday  as  fear  spread  of  the  potential  impact  of  slowing  growth  in  China  on  the  global  economy.  The  market  turmoil  appeared  to  reduce  the  chances  of  the  US  Federal  Reserve  lifting  interest  rates  next  month  and  could  even  spur  it  to  keep  them  on  hold  until  2016.  Lawrence  Summers,  former  US  Treasury  secretary  wrote  that  raising  interest  rates  would  be  a  "serious  error"  that  would  threaten  stability.  The  Shanghai  Composite  dropped  8.5  percent,  its  worst  day  since  February  2007,  after  Beijing  unexpectedly  devalued  the  renminbi.  Global  stock  markets  have  lost  more  than  $5tn  in  value.  Front  Page,  Financial  Times  (London),  25  Aug  15  Ed:  Lost  $5  trillion!  See  how  TDL's  "The  Coming  Great  Deflation"  contracts  the  money  supply,  to  compensate  for  the  previous  overprinting  of  paper  money  -­‐-­‐  all  as  predicted.    

2.  China  devaluation  raises  specter  of  currency  wars.  All  currency  wars  are  self-­‐defeating  for  their  combatants.  When  a  country  slashes  the  value  of  its  currency  to  boost  exports,  it  inevitably  triggers  competitive  devaluations  by  its  trading  partners,  thereby  robbing  the  first  mover  of  its  initial  advantage.  China's  position  as  the  world's  largest  trading  power  ensures  that  its  action  will  distribute  deflationary  pressures  throughout  its  global  supply  chain,  while  intensifying  pressure  on  competitors  to  seek  their  own  currency  depreciations.  China's  exports  have  been  dismal  so  far  this  year  and  tumbled  again  in  July  by  8.3  percent.  As  ever,  China's  true  predicament  is  obscured  by  official  statistics.  The  official  gross  domestic  product  growth  rate  was  7  percent  in  the  second  quarter,  but  several  independent  analysts  estimate  that  in  reality  it  may  be  closer  to  4  percent.  Li  Keqiang,  premier,  said  that  a  scenario  in  which  major  economies  "trip  over  themselves  to  devalue  their  currencies"  would  lead  to  a  currency  war.  The  devaluation  could  yet  have  unwelcome  effects.  It  looks  likely  to  amplify  China's  export  of  deflation  by  making  Chinese  goods  cheaper.  This  is  of  concern  because  the  producer  price  index,  which  measures  aggregate  prices  at  the  factory  gate,  fell  in  July  for  the  40th  straight  month  to  minus  5.4  percent.  This,  coupled  with  the  impact  of  potential  competitive  devaluations,  looks  likely  to  lead  the  world  into  another  phase  of  slower  growth.    Financial  Times  (London),  12  Aug  15  Ed:  At  last,  the  world  awakens  to  the  truth  about  "The  Coming  Competing  Currency  Devaluations!"  "Several"?  We  recall  being  quite  alone  predicting  China's  economy  crashing,  as  recently  as  a  couple  of  months  ago!  Now,  some  Analysts  in  the  Low  State  of  Hyperneeding  Credit  try  to  push  to  the  front  of  the  line.    3.    Shares  in  some  of  the  largest  miners  have  fallen  to  levels  last  seen  a  decade  ago,  mirroring  a  downward  lurch  in  commodity  prices.  The  benchmark  price  of  iron  ore,  key  to  steelmaking  and  one  of  the  most  important  of  traded  mined  commodities,  fell  11  percent  in  just  one  day.  The  sector's  fall  underscores  how  tightly  its  fortunes  are  bound  up  with  China,  which  became  by  far  the  largest  consumer  of  mined  commodities  in  the  first  decade  of  this  century  amid  rapid  industrialization,  and  supposedly  set  in  train  a  natural  resources  supercycle.  China  still  absorbs  about  half  of  iron  ore,  coal  and  copper  exports,  but  the  country's  slowing  growth  since  2011  unleashed  a  severe  downturn  for  miners  by  reducing  demand  for  commodities.  There  was  a  positive  demand  shock  caused  by  China  on  the  way  up,  and  now  China  is  delivering  negative  demand  shocks  on  the  way  down.  Miners  are  struggling  to  cope  with  a  strong  US  dollar,  which  has  risen  more  than  20  percent  against  key  currencies  in  the  past  year.  This  makes  dollar-­‐priced  commodities  more  expensive  for  buyers  using  other  currencies.  There  is  a  supply  glut  of  certain  commodities  -­‐  notably  iron  ore  -­‐  reflecting  how  projects  started  by  miners  during  the  boom  years  are  now  moving  into  production.  Large  companies  such  as  BHP  Billiton  and  Rio  Tinto  have  made  plain  they  are  not  willing  to  cede  market  share  by  reducing  output.  Shares  in  Anglo  American  sank  to  levels  last  seen  in  2014.  James  Wilson  and  Neil  Hume,  Financial  Times  (London),  10  Jul  15  Ed:  Finally,  one  of  the  first  appearances  in  the  press  of  China's  "slowing  growth"  -­‐  is  a  "severe  downturn"  like  a  crash?.    

4.  Global  blue-­‐chip  companies  have  navigated  choppy  waters  of  late,  enduring  falling  energy  and  commodity  prices  in  conjunction  with  a  rising  dollar.  Now  another  wave  is  rocking  the  boat:  China.  The  country's  economy,  which  has  delivered  relentless  growth  amid  seemingly  insatiable  demand,  has  been  slowing.  Then  this  month  the  stock  market  rally  ran  aground,  raising  questions  about  the  effect  on  China's  economy  and  how  this  plays  out  globally.  During  this  quarterly  reporting  season,  the  effect  of  a  slowing  China  has  been  a  prevailing  topic  with  companies,  including  Caterpillar,  Apple  and  Ford.  The  word  "China"  was  mentioned  in  nearly  half  of  186  earnings  calls  conducted  by  S&P  500  companies  from  the  start  of  June  through  to  the  end  of  last  week.  Caterpillar's  construction  arm  was  down  30  percent  in  the  last  quarter  with  much  of  that  decline  in  China  and  Japan.  According  to  FactSet  economic  estimates,  real,  year-­‐over-­‐year  GDP  growth  in  China  is  projected  to  be  6.9  percent,  which  would  be  a  continuation  of  the  declining  growth  seen  in  recent  years.  However,  many  investors  suspect  the  true  rate  of  growth  may  be  lower,  and  it  faces  a  potential  hard  landing  given  the  huge  build  up  in  debt  over  the  decade.  Another  sensitive  area  is  companies  associated  with  commodities.  The  Financial  Times  (London),  31  Jul  15  Ed:  China's  "continuation  of  the  declining  growth"?  Who  knew?  You  read  it  in  TDL  long  ago.    5.  Investors  fleeing  China  find  solace  in  India.  With  China's  equity  market  convulsed  by  a  sell-­‐off,  India  finds  itself  the  happy  recipient  of  investment  searching  for  safety  in  the  developing  world.  Indian  stocks  are  up  about  5  percent.  The  rupee  has  also  been  relatively  stable.  The  Financial  Times  (London),  29  Jul  15  Ed:  Capital  flight  from  China  to  India?  Nobody  foresaw  it.    6.  As  forecasts  predicting  endless  growth  in  China's  appetite  for  raw  materials  became  a  matter  of  industry  faith,  mining  companies  borrowed  extensively  to  build  networks  of  pits,  railway  lines  and  port  terminals.  Mega-­‐deals  abounded  as  a  merger-­‐and-­‐acquisition  frenzy  took  hold.  Cheap  borrowing  costs,  thanks  to  low  global  interest  rates,  fueled  the  splurge.  As  China's  hunger  for  resources  ebb,  mining  companies  profits  suffer  amid  falling  commodity  prices.  Metals  such  as  copper  and  aluminum  fell  to  near  six-­‐year  lows.  Iron  ore  at  one  point  hit  its  weakest  level  for  a  decade.  China  accounts  for  about  half  of  global  steel  production.  Chinese  steel  consumption  has  waned.  Rhiannon  Hoyle,  The  Wall  Street  Journal,  13  Jul  15  Ed:  Our  prediction  of  a  crash  in  the  steel  industry  is  at  last  perceived  by  the  mainstream  press.    RAW  MATERIALS:  1.  The  rout  in  commodities  prices  in  recent  weeks  has  been  unrelenting,  wide-­‐ranging  and  driven  by  macroeconomic  factors  far  beyond  the  ability  of  miners  to  control.  The  Bloomberg  Commodity  Index  has  returned  to  levels  not  seen  since  2002  -­‐  implying  that  the  much  talked-­‐about  "Commodities  Supercycle,"  sustained  by  unprecedented  demand  growth  by  China's  booming  economy,  is  effectively  over.  The  other  negative  is  that  the  US  Federal  Reserve  will  raise  interest  rates  later  this  year,  further  driving  up  the  US  dollar  and  sinking  commodities  priced  in  US  dollars.  

The  Chinese  central  bank's  gold  holdings  have  grown  57%  to  53.3  million  oz  gold  since  it  last  announced  its  holdings  six  years  ago.  Despite  such  growth,  which  places  China  as  the  world's  fifth-­‐largest  holder  of  gold,  many  gold-­‐bull  Analysts  over  the  years  had  speculated  that  the  country's  holdings  had  grown  much  more  than  that,  and  so  the  revelation  was  seen  as  gold-­‐negative.  John  Cumming,  Editorial,  The  Northern  Miner,  3  Aug  15  Ed:  Yes.    CYBERSECURITY:  1.  At  a  dinner  in  Menlo  Park  to  discuss  cybersecurity  with  the  executives  of  top  Silicon  Valley  firms,  the  mood  was  decidedly  grim.    Devastating  cyberattack  is  likely  to  occur  in  the  next  five  years,  said  a  top  Hewlitt  Packard  exec.  Companies  are  nowhere  near  prepared  for  it.  Neither  are  the  Feds.  What  struck  me  about  the  dinner,  attended  by  executives  from  Hewlett  Packard,  Cloudera  and  PayPal,  along  with  academics  and  investors,  was  the  naked  pessimism  about  cybersecurity.  It  will  get  much,  much  worse.  By  2020,  the  United  States  will  be  hit  with  a  cyberattack  that  will  cripple  banks,  stock  exchanges,  power  plants  and  communications.  An  attack  that  will  disrupt  the  daily  lives  of  all  Americans,  not  just  people  who  carry  a  Target  REDcard.  Nobody  really  knows  what  to  do.  There  are  a  lot  of  smart  people  in  corporate  America,  Silicon  Valley  and  the  Federal  government.  But  we're  still  pretty  clueless  about  how  to  respond  to  a  cyberattack.  Buying  antivirus  software  is  one  thing.  A  whopping  57  percent  of  CEOs  have  not  been  trained  on  what  to  do  after  a  data  breach.  And  more  than  70  percent  of  executives  think  their  companies  only  partially  understand  the  risks.  Hackers  attack  every  day,  every  hour,  every  minute.  Hackers  range  from  well-­‐funded  state-­‐sponsored  networks  to  individuals  who  sit  at  home  raising  funds.  Despite  the  recent  headlines  about  cybercrimes,  people  just  don't  care.  Sure,  consumers  get  annoyed  when  they  need  to  cancel  credit  cards  and  change  passwords.  But  since  banks  and  credit  card  companies  typically  cover  losses  from  fraud,  consumers  lack  a  financial  incentive  to  care  about  cyberattacks.  Cybercrime  will  continue  to  remain  a  vague  and  distant  threat.  But  if  the  pessimists  are  right,  the  American  public  won't  have  to  wait  long.  Thomas  Lee,  San  Francisco  Chronicle,  21  Jul  15    2.  After  a  wave  of  increasingly  sophisticated  cyber  attacks,  corporations  of  all  types  -­‐  from  entertainment  groups  like  Sony  to  retailers,  insurers,  and  even  car-­‐makers  -­‐  are  spending  big  money  to  fight  back  against  hackers.  But  the  financial  industry  is  the  most  frequent  target,  facing  300  percent  more  cyber  attacks  than  any  other  sector.  Regulators  have  noted  that  cyber  attacks  on  banks  are  an  emerging  threat  that  could  pose  a  systemic  risk  to  the  sector.  The  banking  industry  has  poured  hundreds  of  millions  of  dollars  into  securing  its  networks.  They  have  hired  thousands  of  the  brightest  tech  minds,  plucking  former  intelligence  officials  from  spy  agencies  and  combing  the  networks  of  the  Chaos  Computer  Club,  Europe's  largest  association  of  hackers,  for  recruits.    The  Financial  Times  interviewed  top  security  officers  at  some  of  the  world's  largest  banks,  but  none  would  speak  on  the  record  for  fear  of  prompting  reprisals  from  hackers.  An  attack  on  JPMorgan  Chase  exposed  contact  information  of  76m  households  in  2014  -­‐  a  year  when  it  spent  more  

than  $250m  and  had  about  1,000  people  focused  on  cyber  security.  It  shook  customers'  confidence  in  a  system  that  holds  personal  financial  information  about  their  mortgages,  savings  and  bank  accounts.  The  2013  breach  of  Target,  the  US  retailer,  is  estimated  to  have  cost  banks  more  than  $200m.  Lloyd's,  the  UK  insurer,  has  estimated  cyber  attacks  cost  all  businesses  as  much  as  $400bn  a  year.  Unlike  other  industries,  the  financial  sector  is  required  by  US  law  to  protect  customer  information.  Most  controversial  is  "hacking  back"  against  cyber  criminals,  which  is  against  US  law  and,  according  to  several  bank  officials,  a  bad  idea  because  of  the  difficulty  in  definitively  identifying  culprits.  Instead,  they  are  fighting  back  by  bolstering  their  networks.  The  industry  has  also  created  a  cyber-­‐attack  alert  system  with  the  Depository  Trust  &  Clearing  Corp,  a  clearinghouse.  Data  security  experts  in  the  financial  industry  commiserated  about  how  their  employers  did  not  understand  what  they  were  dealing  with.  But  people  obviously  get  it  now.  Kara  Scannell  and  Gina  Chon,  The  Financial  Times  (London),  29  Jul  15  Ed:  TDL  is  still  hunting  for  a  good  buying  opportunity  on  anti-­‐hacking  stock  prices.    CURRENT  MARKET  ANALYSIS:  1.  Weak  eurozone  data  underline  fragile  recovery.  France  stagnates  while  Germany,  Netherlands  and  Italy  underperform.  Gross  domestic  product  in  the  eurozone  increased  0.3  percent.  The  eurozone  is  still  struggling  to  recover  from  the  economic  crisis.  Financial  Times,  15  Aug  15  Ed:  Tending  to  confirm  our  prediction  that  the  2008  crisis  never  ended  despite  all  calling  its  aftermath  a  "fragile  recovery".    2.  The  stark  reality  of  the  nation's  growth  numbers  could  not  be  more  clear.  The  US's  average  postwar  growth  rate  is  3.3%,  and  has  often  been  higher.  Across  the  entire  6½  years  of  the  Obama  presidency  it  has  been  about  2%,  and  often  lower.  The  result  is  a  populace  that  is  becoming  resentful,  surly  and  anxious  for  a  way  out.  Fewer  than  30%  think  the  country  is  on  the  right  track,  according  to  the  Real  Clear  Politics  polling  average.  A  highly  cited  Wall  Street  Journal/NBC  poll  last  year  found  that  76%  of  adults  doubt  their  children  will  have  a  better  life  than  they  do.  The  Great  Recession  ended  in  June  2009,  six  years  ago;  in  May,  a  Fox  News  poll  found  that  60%  of  registered  voters  think  we  are  still  in  a  recession.  The  labor-­‐force  participation  rate,  62.6%  last  month,  is  at  its  lowest  level  in  38  years.  In  human  terms,  432,000  people  dropped  out  of  the  workforce  in  June,  and  nearly  two  million  are  called  "marginally  attached  to  the  labor  force"  by  the  government.  Why  shouldn't  people  think  we're  still  in  a  recession.  After  his  2009  economic  stimulus  of  $831  billion  produced  so  little,  Barack  Obama  off-­‐loaded  responsibility  for  the  economy  to  the  Federal  Reserve,  which  has  repeatedly  overstated  its  growth  projections.  Daniel  Henninger,  The  Wall  Street  Journal,  30  Jul  15  Ed:  Registered  voters  think  the  2009  recession  has  not  yet  ended.  WEE  is  oblivious,  but  the  public  correctly  senses  the  truth  –  business  could  have  been  much  better.    3.  Emerging  markets  have  now  given  back  all  their  outperformance  versus  developed  markets  since  they  became  winners  on  the  back  of  Chinese  stimulus  in  late-­‐2008.  Mining  stocks  in  the  FTSE  World  Mining  index  are  back  where  they  stood  

at  their  lowest  post-­‐Lehman  point.  And  inflation  in  Brazil  has  just  passed  9  percent  for  the  first  time  in  more  than  a  decade.  Everything  connected  to  commodities  looks  atrocious.  Weakness  in  Chinese  demand  and  a  depressed  growth  outlook  has  trashed  prices  of  major  commodities,  hitting  miners.  Economic  and  political  cracks  long  covered  up  by  easy  profits  from  commodity  production  are  being  revealed  as  prices  crash,  with  Brazil,  Russia  and  South  Africa  all  suffering.  Investors  are  responding  in  the  traditional  way  to  a  strengthening  dollar:  they  are  dumping  emerging  markets  (EM)  and  slashing  exposure  to  commodities.  Collapsing  demand  from  China,  as  it  tries  to  switch  away  from  heavy  industry  and  infrastructure  towards  a  consumer-­‐driven  economy,  has  hammered  metals  prices.  The  question  is  whether  this  has  gone  too  far.  At  some  point  prices  will  overshoot,  and  it  will  be  time  for  contrarians  to  step  in.  James  Mackintosh,  The  Financial  Times  (London),  23  Jul  15  Ed:  That  time  is  "soon."    TDL'S  LATEST  ON  GEOPOLITICS:  1.    Gazprom's  gas  production  is  on  track  to  fall  to  a  fresh  post-­‐Soviet  low  this  year  as  the  state-­‐controlled  energy  group  is  buffeted  by  recession  at  home,  declining  demand  in  Europe  and  its  dispute  with  Ukraine.  Output  at  the  world's  largest  gas  company  fell  to  the  lowest  level  since  Gazprom  was  established  after  the  break-­‐up  of  the  Soviet  Union.  Gazprom  last  year  accounted  for  9  percent  of  total  Russian  budget  revenues.  Demand  for  its  gas  has  fallen  at  home  and  abroad.  Sales  to  Europe,  the  main  driver  of  the  company's  revenues,  fell  against  a  backdrop  of  drastically  deteriorating  relations  with  the  European  Commission  accusing  the  Russian  group  of  abusing  its  position  in  the  market.  The  recession  in  Russia  has  weakened  domestic  demand.  Russia's  economy  contracted  4.4  percent  in  the  second  quarter  from  a  year  earlier.  Ukraine  -­‐  which  has  been  one  of  Gazprom's  largest  customers  -­‐  has  sought  other  suppliers.  Jack  Frachy,  The  Financial  Times  (Moscow),  29  Jul  15  Ed:  We  note  that  lower  sales  of  Russian  gas  have  coincided  with  its  subdued  military  moves  against  Ukraine.  Oil  money  enables  unnecessary  wars.  We  would  still  not  advise  TDLrs  to  invest  in  Russia.    2.  Russia  sees  a  threat  in  its  converts  to  Islam.  While  nations  across  Europe  are  grappling  with  the  relatively  recent  peril  of  homegrown  Islamic  terrorists,  Russia  has  long  lived  in  fear  of  a  jihadist  uprising  within  its  own  borders,  particularly  in  the  Caucasus,  where  it  fought  two  brutal  wars  to  suppress  Muslim  separatists.  For  Putin's  Russia,  Slavic  ethnic  Russian  converts  to  Islam  pose  an  especially  subversive  threat,  not  only  by  stoking  Russia's  deep  paranoia  over  separatists'  extremism,  but  also  by  challenging  the  Orthodox  Christian  national  identity  that  Putin  has  used  to  unite  the  country  in  place  of  Soviet  Communism.    David  M.  Herszenhorn,  The  New  York  Times,  2  Jul  15  Ed:  Russia's  real  friends  are  in  Europe  not  Asia,  and  we  have  often  predicted  would  eventually  unite  with  its  westerners  -­‐  believe  the  unbelievable  or  not.    3.  The  Kremlin's  agenda  reflects  Russia's  bitter  narrative  of  the  recent  past.  Instead  of  welcoming  it  into  the  European  family  after  the  cold  war,  Moscow  says  Europe  

and  the  US  took  advantage  of  its  weaknesses  to  absorb  its  former  allies,  expanding  the  EU  and  Nato  to  Russia's  doorstep.  Financial  Times  (London),  6  Jul  15  Ed:  Exactly  what  we  recommended  at  the  time,  for  daring  NATO  to  include  Russia!  (See  TDL  Annual  Forecast  Issue,  14  Jan  94,  pg  22).    4.  The  Arab  world  has  been  polarized  for  years  in  a  worsening  proxy  conflict  between  Iran  and  gulf  powers,  particularly  Saudi  Arabia,  fueling  Sunni-­‐Shiite  tensions  and  stoking  wars.  In  Syria,  Iran's  support  has  ensured  the  survival  of  President  Bashar  Assad  against  Sunni  rebels  backed  by  gulf  nations  in  a  devastating  civil  war,  now  in  its  fifth  year.  Yemen  has  been  torn  apart  this  year  as  Saudi  Arabia,  leading  a  coalition  air  campaign,  has  tried  to  help  fend  off  Shiite  rebels  supported  by  Tehran.  In  Iraq,  Saudi  Arabia  has  opposed  the  growing  power  of  Iran  ever  since  the  2003  ouster  of  Saddam  Hussein  and  the  rise  of  a  government  led  by  Shiite  politicians  close  to  Iran.  San  Francisco  Chronicle,  16  Jul  15  Ed:  Media  edging  closer  to  admitting  that  a  Sunni-­‐Shiite  civil  war  exists?    5.  Prince  Alaweed  bin  Talal,  a  Saudi  royal,  told  us  in  November  2013  that  "for  the  first  time  Saudi  Arabian  interests  and  Israel  are  almost  parallel"  over  Iran.  He  all  but  said  the  Saudis  could  purchase  a  nuclear  bomb  off-­‐the-­‐shelf  from  Pakistan  given  the  close  ties  between  the  countries.  Prince  Turki  al  Faisal,  Riyadh's  former  intelligence  minister,  was  even  more  blunt  this  march,  saying  the  Kingdom  "will  want  the  same"  nuclear  technology  Iran  is  granted  in  a  deal.  That  would  include  a  plutonium  reactor  and  thousands  of  centrifuges  enriching  uranium.  The  Kingdom  already  has  plans  to  build  16  nuclear  reactors  by  2030,  claiming  it  needs  them  to  power  desalination  plants.  The  temptation  to  develop  a  Sunni  Arab  nuclear  deterrent  will  be  overwhelming  as  a  matter  of  national  survival.  The  Wall  Street  Journal,  15  Jul  15  Ed:  A  nuclear  arms  race  will  soon  emerge,  believe  the  unbelievable  or  not.    6.  For  Greece,  the  gains  from  defaulting  would  be  slight,  and  the  costs  potentially  vast.  Syriza,  Mr  Tsipra's  hard-­‐left  party  is  anti-­‐market  and  anti-­‐enterprise.  Neo-­‐fascist  Golden  Dawn  and  the  Communists,  with  a  combined  12%  of  the  vote,  would  thrive.  The  real  task  is  to  sort  out  the  structural  impediments  to  growth  -­‐  rampant  clientelism,  hopeless  public  administration,  comically  bad  regulations,  a  lethargic  and  unreliable  justice  system,  nationalized  assets  and  oligopolies,  and  inflexible  markets  for  goods  and  services  and  labor.    The  Economist  (England)  Ed:  Time  to  revert  to  free-­‐enterprise  democracy?    LATEST  ON  GOLD:  1.  Texas  decided  to  keep  its  gold  holdings  within  its  borders.  Texas  is  the  only  state  that  owns  an  actual  stockpile  of  gold  -­‐  not  just  gold  futures  or  investment  positions,  but  approximately  5,600  gold  bars  worth  around  $650  million.  The  holdings,  stored  at  a  New  York  bank,  for  some  harken  back  to  century  old  fears  about  the  security  of  currency  not  backed  by  shiny  bullion.  The  decision  to  bring  its  gold  cache  home  was  hailed  by  many  conservatives,  and  even  some  on  the  far  left,  who  are  suspicious  of  national  government.  Associated  Press  Ed:  Ignoring  weak  gold  prices?  The  gold  giant  stirs.  

 2.  The  Shanghai  Gold  Exchange  announced  that  it  is  planning  on  establishing  a  new  physical  gold  price  mechanism  by  the  end  of  the  year  that  will  compete  with  London  and  US  Comex.  Unlike  the  US  Comex,  it  will  deal  in  direct  physical  gold  sales  rather  than  paper  futures  and  derivative  contracts.  When  the  Shanghai  Gold  Exchange  (SGE)  opened  in  2014  it  set  out  to  usurp  the  West's  control  over  gold  and  their  pricing  of  gold  through  paper  markets.  And  in  less  than  a  year,  the  SGE  has  created  the  world's  largest  gold  fund,  and  is  now  ready  to  take  over  pricing  and  price  discovery  for  the  monetary  metal.  In  fact,  sources  claim  that  right  now  premiums  on  large  sales  of  gold  bullion  are  ranging  as  high  as  $600  over  the  current  paper  spot  price.  Examiner.com  Ed:  Gold  will  rise  again.    3.  Analysts  say  that  any  gold  price  below  $1,100  an  ounce  will  really  sting,  as  that  is  the  break-­‐even  cost  for  many  miners.  Miners  have  slashed  exploration  and  capital  spending  significantly,  and  many  have  moved  to  sell  less-­‐profitable  assets  to  raise  cash.  The  low-­‐cost  operators  will  survive.    Alistair  McDonald,  The  Wall  Street  Journal  Ed:  There  should  be  a  gold  Bottom  Formation  beginning  one  of  these  days,  and  the  final  gold  boom  will  be  the  biggest  of  them  all.    TDL'S  LATEST  ON  "THE  COMING  POTLUCK  BOOM":  1.  The  commission  to  study  marijuana  legalization  in  California  released  a  report  with  recommendations.  We  are  not  marijuana  enthusiasts.  We  began  this  process  not  to  extol  the  virtues  of  the  plant,  but  out  of  a  desire  to  do  better  than  the  status  quo.  The  status  quo  is  a  thriving  illegal  market  of  cultivation  and  sales,  with  no  protection  for  the  environment,  consumer  or  workers,  and  no  tax  revenue.  The  status  quo  is  an  under-­‐regulated  medical  marijuana  system  where  responsible  cultivators  and  dispensaries  exist  alongside  others  just  out  to  make  a  buck.  The  status  quo  is  racial  disparities  in  marijuana  arrests  and  incarceration  from  a  failed  War  on  Drugs.  And  the  status  quo  is  youth  using  marijuana  at  rates  greater  than  tobacco.  Drug  dealers  don't  card  kids.  The  National  Institute  on  Drug  Abuse's  annual  survey  for  2014  found  that  34  percent  of  10th-­‐graders  had  already  used  marijuana,  making  the  substance  more  prevalent  among  this  age  group  than  tobacco  (23  percent).  We  expect  to  see  a  legalization  measure  on  the  2016  ballot.  Our  report  includes  58  recommendations  for  policymakers  to  consider  before  California  decides  to  legalize  recreational  marijuana  for  production,  sale  and  adult  use.  Gavin  Newsom  and  Abdi  Soltani,  San  Francisco  Chronicle,  26  Jul  15  Ed:  On  the  2016  ballot,  the  topic  will  surely  be  publicly  debated.  And  a  new  investment  boom  might  merit  another  "Probing  Attack."    2.  With  marijuana  now  permitted  in  some  form  in  23  US  states,  the  usual  flow  of  pot  from  south  to  north  has  slowed  and,  to  a  growing  degree,  reversed.  This  was  never  imagined  as  a  benefit  of  Nafta.  In  Sinaloa,  long  the  heart  of  Mexican  pot  production,  farmers  are  ripping  out  marijuana  planted  on  hillsides.  "In  our  town,  it's  dropped  because  it's  no  longer  a  profitable  business,"  says  Mario  Valenzuela.  Participation  in  

a  program  that  subsidizes  farmers  who  plant  crops  like  tomatoes  or  green  beans  instead  of  marijuana  has  increased  30  percent.  He  attributes  the  increase  to  the  surge  in  US  production  since  legalization.  Marijuana  seizures  by  US  customs  at  California  border  crossings  were  half  the  amount  five  years  earlier.  Colorado  weed  carries  such  a  cachet  in  both  the  US  and  Mexico  that  entrepreneurs  say  it  could  one  day  be  a  global  brand.  Mexico  decriminalized  possession  of  5  grams  or  less  of  marijuana  in  2009.  A  bill  introduced  last  year  would  allow  pot  dispensaries  like  those  in  many  US  states.  Momentum  will  grow  if  California  approves  recreational  pot  sales  in  a  measure  likely  to  appear  on  ballots  in  November  2016.  The  drug  war  isn't  over.  Yet  there  has  been  an  historic  change  at  the  border.  The  fight  can  now  focus  on  heroin  and  other  deadly  substances.  Decades  of  prohibition  never  slowed  the  flow  of  pot  from  Mexico;  legalization  did.  Bloomberg  Businessweek  Ed:  A  classic  example  of  the  Dines  Nature  of  Paradox  (DINOPA)  -­‐-­‐  the  War  on  Drugs  might  be  won  by  surrendering  to  it,  as  drug  dealers'  profits  go  up  in  smoke.  So  to  speak.    3D  PRINTING:  1.  Why  3-­‐D  printers  scare  Hollywood.  From  "Star  Wars"  guns  to  Warner  Bros.  toys,  hobbyists  are  printing  their  own  collectibles.  After  watching  the  trailer  for  "Star  Wars:  The  Force  Awakens"  last  April,  Ken  Landrum  began  building  his  own  Stormtrooper  gun.  He  used  software  on  his  personal  computer  to  design  nearly  40  separate  pieces  to  be  3-­‐D  printed  and  assembled  into  a  near-­‐exact  replica  of  the  Walt  Disney  prop.  "My  goal  is  to  make  it  better  than  the  studio  did."  He  has  done  it  faster.  Landrum  posted  photos  of  his  design  on  a  message  board  from  3-­‐D  printing  enthusiasts  some  eight  months  before  the  movie  premieres  and  five  months  before  most  official  Disney  toys  hit  shelves.  Fans  have  filled  his  inbox  asking  for  the  files  needed  to  print  their  own.  Mr.  Landrum  recently  decided  to  start  charging  $55  a  file.  The  specter  of  digital  piracy,  which  has  wreaked  havoc  on  the  media  business  in  the  Internet  age,  now  hangs  over  sales  of  physical  products  long  considered  immune  to  such  forces.  At  this  point,  most  of  the  printing  is  done  by  loyal  fans  who  want  to  trade  blueprints  and  products  for  free.  But  that  is  changing  as  more  3-­‐D  printers  turn  living  rooms  into  mini-­‐factories  and  piracy  sites  list  3-­‐D  files  alongside  illegally  copied  movies.  The  phenomenon  is  likely  to  go  far  beyond  entertainment,  he  added,  affecting  everything  from  auto  parts  to  coffee  cups.  The  online  marketplaces  for  3-­‐D  printed  objects  resemble  a  Wal-­‐Mart  aisle  full  of  comic-­‐book  heroes  and  well-­‐known  cartoon  characters  -­‐  including  "Shrek"  statuettes,  a  recreated  prop  designed  to  resembled  Angelina  Jolie's  headdress  in  "Maleficent,"  and  a  snack  dish  modeled  after  the  "Star  Wars"  Millennium  Falcon  (lightsaber  toothpicks  included).  Hobbyists  peer-­‐review  designs  until  they  arrive  at  a  professional  grade  of  precision  and  can  respond  faster  than  the  studios  to  a  product  opportunity.  The  nascent  market  has  the  potential  to  eat  into  one  of  Hollywood's  most  important  moneymakers.  The  tools  needed  to  join  the  printing  community  are  getting  cheaper  and  more  accessible  by  the  day.  About  217,000  3-­‐D  printers  are  expected  to  ship  worldwide  this  year  -­‐  more  than  twice  the  number  of  units  last  year.  That  figure  is  expected  to  double  each  year  between  now  and  2018,  and  cheaper  models  costing  less  than  $1,000  are  also  becoming  more  prevalent.  Free  software  can  be  used  to  design  the  schematics  used  

to  print  the  objects.  New  printing  technology  lowers  the  barriers  to  entry  for  counterfeiting  and  makes  it  possible  for  anyone  with  a  3-­‐D  printer  to  be  a  counterfeiter.  Erich  Schwartzel,  The  Wall  Street  Journal  Ed:  We  still  envision  great  growth  somewhere  ahead  to  repurchase  3-­‐D  printing  stocks.    NOTICE  As  always,  the  press  is  welcome  to  excerpt  brief  quotes  from  TDL  and  IWB,  but  not  our  recommended  stocks  which  are  for  paid  subscribers  only.  Those  who  use  our  work  without  having  paid  for  it  are  in  the  Low  State  of  Stealing  and,  as  a  result,  will  find  a  way  to  lose  money  doing  it.  Please  do  not  forward  our  work  to  cheaters,  who  will  hear  from  our  Legal  Department.    (c)  2015,  James  Dines  &  Co  Inc.  All  Rights  Reserved.  

Interim Warning Bulletin, 9 June 2016, Vol 2016, #6 We have been gratified to observe the tremendous rise in the Raw Materials sector, led by golds and silvers. This is still a time to add to portfolios. Uranium has been one of the exceptions, overlooked and even shunned by investors, not only because of the dangers posed by nuclear power and disposal of waste. But also because it has been undercut by cheap natural gas and wind power. We have just completed our daily study of the uranium mining stocks and discovered Upside Breakouts all over the place! It is certainly counterintuitive for its bull market, although there are two positive considerations: First, it is very clean energy, and governments will have to include nuclear to meet their climate-change goals. Second, the pessimism toward Uranium stocks is so intense that that itself is bullish, based on DINOPA (The Dines Nature of Paradox). This IWB is a “Buy” signal for Uranium stocks, not uranium metal itself, yet – and our first selection is Fission Uranium (FCU.TO, FCUUF) because it has an outstanding deposit. Also, for an unknown reason, it has not yet been noticed by the crowd, as the price is lolling near its Bottom Formation at 66 cents a share. Add to Supervised List #6. Our initial instinct was to start with Cameco, an industry leader, but its chart is in a Downtrend and there are profits to be made elsewhere in the Uranium group. Additionally, more politicians nationally have been openly coming out in favor of legalizing medical marijuana, which we had expected would begin its bull market before the November presidential election – a prediction we reaffirm. Please see our recommended marijuana stocks in Supervised List #7 on page 15 of the last issue of The Dines Letter. The leading averages have risen to near the top of a long, flat trading range, as we expected. But the odds are that this Minor rally should stutter to a halt from somewhere around these levels, near where we flashed our “Sell” in December 2014. An Upside Breakout by the DJI or S&P 500 would impress us, particularly if the Dow Transports and NASDAQ averages confirm that new high. Else the new high might be a treacherous False Upside Breakout, which are almost always impossible to predict – but that’s our daring call. Our last issue contained the recommendations we thought would rise in a fulcral market decline, and there are no changes. Next TDL scheduled for 1 July 2016. An interesting excerpt as this goes to press: “Silver acting like ‘Gold on steroids,’ as assets reach record high.” Bloomberg Businessweek, 9 Jun 16 ED: TDLrs knew this first, and Wall Street is only beginning to catch up to you. But you’re still in the lead in having bought silvers. NOTICE As always, the press is welcome to excerpt brief quotes from TDL and IWB, but not our recommended stocks which are for paid subscribers only. Those who use our work without having paid for it are in the Low State of Stealing and, as a result, will find a way to lose money doing it. Please do not forward our work to cheaters, who will hear from our Legal Department. (c) 2016, James Dines & Co Inc. All Rights Reserved.