president donald trump: how and what next? · conclusions polling errors were small but...
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President Donald Trump:
how and what next?
Dr Tom Packer
Rothermere American Institute
Tuesday 28 March 2017
Summary
Polling error how/where/why?
Who voted for Trump?
Why did they?
How Popular is Trump?
What to worry about/hope for
Trump 45.9% Clinton 48%
3
How wrong were the polls
Year
Error in last 7
days of
election cycle Year
Error in last 7
days
1980 7.56 % 2000 4.31
1984 1.51 2004 1.44
1988 0.36 2008 0.58
1992 0.86 2012 2.98
1996 3.22 2016 1.07
Average 2.39 %
4
Where the errors were
5
Where the polls were wrong- white working
class surge for Trump - key to polling error
6
Non-college educated whites
overrepresented in the swing states Swing states had an above average share of white
noncollege voters
STATE
TIPPING
-POINT
CHANC
E
WHITE
NON-
COLLEGE
SHARE
Florida 17.6% 40.1% –
Pennsylvania 12.3 49.8 –
Michigan 11.7 52.5 –
North
Carolina11.2 40.4 –
Virginia 6.0 36.7 –
Colorado 6.0 41.6 –
Ohio 5.2 53.3 –
Wisconsin 4.8 57.2 –
Minnesota 3.8 53.7 –
Nevada 3.7 41.9 –
Arizona 2.8 41.6 –
New Mexico 2.8 27.5 –
New
Hampshire2.3 56.5 –
Georgia 2.3 34.2 –
Iowa 1.3 62.0 –
Weighted
avg. of
tipping-point
states
45.3 –
United
States41.6 – 7
The weighted average includes states where the tipping-point chance was below Iowa’s 1.3 percent.
Trump’s luck
8
What made the
popular vote
(almost) a tie?
9
Ethnic Revolution that wasn’t
10
Pattern stayed the same?
11
‘I love the uneducated’ – non-
college educated whites gave
Trump the White House
12
Non-college educated whites
key in the swing states
13
Trump’s youth vote?
14
Why did they?
15
Hillary Clinton advert ‘Mirrors’
16
Hillary Clinton advertising more
personal less policy orientated
17
Pol science models
fundamentals prevailed?
18
Was it ‘personality’/emails?
19
Trump won on policy not personality: which
candidate has the right temperament?
Clinton Trump
Other/
no
answer
Both do
5%20% 77% 3%
Only
Clinton
does
49%
90% 5% 5%
Only
Trump
does
29%
2% 97% 1%
Neither
does
14%
12% 67% 21%
20
Trump won on policy not
personality II TRUMP’S MARGIN AMONG VOTERS WHO RATED …
STATE
ONLY CLINTON
FAVORABLE
ONLY TRUMP
FAVORABLE
BOTH
UNFAVORABLE
Kentucky -98 +100 +46
Georgia -98 +97 +39
Florida -98 +98 +37
Texas -99 +97 +37
Wisconsin -98 +99 +37
N. Carolina -97 +97 +36
Missouri -96 +98 +35
Indiana -97 +92 +32
Ohio -98 +97 +30
S. Carolina -100 +99 +30
Pennsylvania -98 +98 +25
Nevada -97 +95 +23
Iowa -96 +98 +21
Michigan -98 +97 +21
Minnesota -98 +98 +20
Utah -92 +95 +19
Arizona -97 +96 +17
Colorado -97 +96 +13
Virginia -97 +98 +12
New Mexico -94 +96 +10
N. Hampshire -97 +94 +9
Washington -98 +97 +5
New Jersey -93 +96 +3
Maine -97 +99 +2
Oregon -97 +98 0
Average -97 +97 +22 21
Clinton TrumpOther/ no
answer
Foreign
policy
13%
60% 33% 7%
Immigration
13%33% 64% 3%
Economy
52%52% 41% 7%
Terrorism
18%40% 57% 3%
22
Most important Issue Facing the Country (CNN)
Immigration advert
‘Two Americas’
23
General Election II
24
The nearly Presidents?
25
Rick Santorum
Pat Buchanan
A western backlash –
not made in the US
26
Values voters remain (mostly)
loyal
27
Values voters II-why
28
Judge Antonin
Scalia
Is Trump Popular?
29
Trump approval
All adults 43% 51%
Voters
(registered
or likely)
47% 49%
—
SURVEY
METHOD
Live caller 42% 52%
Online or
automated47% 48%
30
Most unpopular president at this stage
since records started. Will he do/achieve
nothing?
31
Big shift in people thinking the
country on the ‘right track’
32
Disapproval of his
‘unique’ style
33
What to fear/hope for?
34
People’s fears/hopes of Trump –
Standard GOP Agenda
35
Judge Neil Gorusch
Vice-President Mike Pence
Protectionism/immigration/
Anti-interventionism?
36
Attorney General
Jeff Sessions
Fascism/right-wing
authoritarian?
37Stephen Bannon, Assistant to the President
Corrupt?
38
Authoritarian/breakdown of
liberal norms?
39
Incompetent/over his head?
40
Good news for Britain?
41
Conclusions
Polling errors were small but disproportionately in the
right states for Trump.
Trump was saved from disaster and outperformed polls
due to gaining enormous support from anti
immigration/anti-free trade white working class voters.
Early signs are unpopular/badly organised
administration, but early days. Trump’s policies
continue to be more popular than he is.
Important to identify what aspect of Trump is most
worrying – different concerns would imply a different
style of opposition. 42
QUESTIONS?