presented by: rod connop, vice president · 16/04/2008 · greater edmonton industrial land...
TRANSCRIPT
Presented by: Rod Connop, Vice President
Greater Edmonton Industrial Vacancy
Greater Edmonton Industrial Vacancy Rate Q1-2008
“1.44%”
NiskuVacancy
1.10%
Acheson Vacancy
4.46%
Northwest Vacancy
1.59%
St. Albert Vacancy
0.60%
Central Vacancy
0.43%
Northeast Vacancy
0.00%
Southeast Vacancy
1.50%
Sherwood Park
Vacancy0.95%
Greater Edmonton Industrial Vacancy Rate (%)
Metro Edmonton Inventory 78,559,928 Sq. Ft.
Greater Edmonton Inventory 16,827,903 Sq. Ft.
Total: 95,387,831 Sq. Ft.
1.44%1.51%
2.23%2.66%
4.62%4.20%
3.70%
4.10%3.90%
4.90%5.40%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1-2008
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%2005 2006 2007 Q1-2008
2005 3.25% 2.26% 0.90% 2.40% 2.00% 1.70% 0.30% 0.60%2006 2.56% 1.88% 0.50% 1.90% 1.20% 1.60% 0.50% 0.50%2007 1.93% 1.59% 0.19% 0.65% 0.71% 0.81% 0.18% 4.46%Q1-2008 1.59% 1.50% 0.00% 0.43% 1.10% 0.60% 0.95% 4.46%
Northwest Southeast Northeast Central Nisku St. Albert Sherwood Park
Acheson
Greater Edmonton Vacancy Rate by Market
1 Vacancy of 107,018
Sq, Ft,
Outside City Limits (1.47%)Metro Edmonton (1.43%)
Metro Edmonton New Construction 2008 Forecast
*Forecast based on current construction in Northwest & Southeast Edmonton to be
completed in 2008.
Northwest Edmonton – 1,700,000 square feet under construction
Southeast Edmonton – 1,750,000 square feet under construction
1,25
0,00
0
1,20
0,00
0
1,10
0,00
0
1,82
0,00
0
1,60
0,00
0
1,10
0,00
0
2,15
0,00
0
3,460,208
2,92
5,00
0
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 *2008
(Squ
are
Feet
)
Metro Edmonton Industrial Net Absorption
1,75
0,00
0
950,
000
1,45
0,00
0
1,25
0,00
0
2,20
0,00
0
3,14
4,00
0
2,35
0,00
0
1,35
0,00
0
504,794
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1-2008
(Squ
are
Feet
)
Metro Edmonton Industrial Lease Rates
$7.25 - $8.0010,000 –30,000
Southside
$6.00 - $7.25>30,000Northwest
$6.25 - $7.25>30,000Southside
$8.00 - $12.50<10,000Southside
$7.00 - $8.0010,000 –30,000
Northwest
$8.00 - $12.00<10,000Northwest
Face Rate (average PSF)
Size (sf)Area
$8.00 - $12.0010,000 –30,000
Southside
$7.50 - $10.50>30,000Southside
$7.25 - $8.50>30,000Northwest
$8.50 - $14.00<10,000Southside
$7.50 - $8.7510,000 –30,000
Northwest
$8.50 - $12.00<10,000Northwest
Face Rate (average PSF)
Size (sf)Area
Existing Product New Product
Greater Edmonton Industrial Lease Rates
$10.00 - $14.00
$12.00 - $15.00
$9.50 - $12.50
$12.00 - $14.00
5,001 – 10,000
$10.00 - $14.00
$12.00 - $15.00
$9.50 - $12.00
$11.00 - $14.00
10,001 – 20,000
$9.00 - $12.00
$9.75 - $13.00
$8.50 - $14.00
$10.50 - $12.50
20,001 – 50,000
$8.00 - $13.00$9.00 - $13.00Leduc County
(Nisku)
N/A$12.00 - $15.00Strathcona
County (Sherwood Park)
$8.50 - $14.00$9.50 - $13.50Parkland County
(Acheson)
N/A$12.00 - $14.00Sturgeon County
(St. Albert)
50,001 +1 – 5,000Range (Sq. Ft.)
Existing Product
Greater Edmonton Industrial Land Comparables
• Metro Edmonton
Fully serviced sites (average) (IM) $500,000.00 - $700,000.00 per acre
(IB) $600,000.00 - $850,000.00 per acre
Un-serviced land sites (average) (AGI) $150,000.00 - $200,000.00 per acre
• Leduc County/Nisku
Fully serviced sites (average) $275,000.00 - $350,000.00 per acre
• County of Strathcona/Sherwood Park
Fully serviced sites (average) $450,000.00 - $600,000.00 per acre
• Parkland County/Acheson
Fully serviced sites (average) $295,000.00 - $380,000.00 per acre
Greater Edmonton Industrial Land Sales 2007
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
(Acr
es)
$-
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00Site Area (Acres) Dollars (Millions)
Site Area (Acres) 291 557 690 350 190 330 250 310 693 1024 816 1170Dollars (Millions) $13.60 $33.30 $44.80 $32.00 $25.00 $30.00 $36.00 $52.00 $79.90 $146.50 $217.30 $320.50
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Greater Edmonton Industrial New Developments
• Yellowhead Transport Depot (Remington)
• Horizon Business Park (Hopewell)
• Yellowhead Crossing II (Bentall)
• Fourell Lands (Panattoni)
• Sunwapta Industrial Park (GE/ Dundee)
• City West South Business Park (Bentall/ ING)
• Winfield West (Opus)
• Northport Business Park (ING/ Verus)
• Golden West Golf Course Site (Qualico)
• Westpoint Corporate Centre (HOOP)
• Giffels Business Park
• Gregg Development Site
• Hopewell Beaverbrook Site
Northwest Edmonton
HOLDING COMPANY
HOLDING COMPANY
HOLDING COMPANY
HOLDING COMPANY
HOLDING COMPANY HOLDING
COMPANY
HO
LDIN
G
CO
MP
AN
Y
CIT
Y L I
MIT
SGiffels
Business Park
Northport Industrial Centre
(Verus-ING)
Fourell Lands (Panattoni)
Winfield West (Opus)
Westpoint Corporate Centre
(HOOPP)
111th Avenue
Stony Plain Road
118th Avenue
137th Avenue
156t
hSt
reet
170t
hSt
reet
215t
hSt
reet
184t
hSt
reet
Sunwapta Business Park (GE/Dundee)
Yellowhead Crossing II
(Bentall)
Yellowhead Trail
Ant
hony
Hen
day
Driv
e
St. Albert Trail
Golden West Redevelopment
(Qualico)
Gregg Development
Site
Horizon Business
Park (Hopewell)
Yellowhead Transport
Depot (Remington)
ST. ALBERT
CN
In
ter m
odal
F a
c ilit
y
Yellowhead Trail
PAR
KLA
ND
CO
UN
TY
BIG LAKE
City West South (ING)
Hopewell Beaverbrook
Site
Greater Edmonton Industrial New Developments
Southeast Edmonton
• South Central Business Park (Remington/ GWL)
• 50th Street Business Park (GPM)
• Prospect Business Park (GWL & Remington)
• Capital Industrial Park
• Ellerslie Industrial Park
• Gateway Business Park (WAM)
• Roper Ridge Business Park (Trillium)
• Pylypow Development Site
• CityView Centre (Oxford)
• QE II Business Park
• First Park Nisku (First Industrial)
• Intermodal South Business Park (Verus/Sun Life)
Sherwood Park Freeway
34th
Stre
et
17th
Stre
et
50th
Stre
et75th
Stre
et
82nd Avenue (Whyte Ave)
Whitemud Drive
86th
Stre
et
Argyll Road
Ant
hony
He n
day
Dr iv
e
34th
Stre
et
17th
Stre
et
50th
Stre
et
Roper Road
HOLDING COMPANY
HOLDING COMPANY
Prospect Business
Park (GWL)
South Central Business Park (Remington)
Roper Ridge Business
Park (Trillium)
Commerce South Industrial Park II
(Sunlife Financial)
City View Business
Park (Oxford)
City of Edmonton
City of Edmonton
Private OwnerPrivate
Owners
Pylypow Industrial
CentreWhitemud Drive
CITY LIMITS
STRATHCONA COUNTY
STR
ATH
CO
NA
CO
UN
TY
CIT
Y LI
MIT
S
Cornerstone Industrial Park
(Hopewell)
Capital Industrial Site
50th Street Business Park
(GPM)76th Avenue
CITY LIMITS CITY LIMITS
111t
hSt
reet
91st
Stre
et
50th
Stre
et
66th
Stre
et
Calg
ary T
rail S
outh
9th Avenue SW 9th Avenue SW
41st Avenue SW 41st Avenue SW
Ellerslie Road
Gat
eway
Bou
leva
rd
LEDUC COUNTYLEDUC COUNTY
Pars
o n’s
Rd
CP Rail Intermodal
Site
Intermodal South Business
Park (Verus/Sun Life)
Anthony Henday DriveAnthony Henday Drive
Que
en E
lizab
eth
II Hi
ghw
ayEllerslie Road
66th
Stre
et
50th
Stre
et
Ellerslie Industrial
Park
Development Lands
(Carma)
City of Edmonton
Development Lands
(Carma)
Development Lands
(Carma)
Gateway Business Park
(WAM)
Future NAIT South Campus
CITY LIMITS 41st Avenue SW CITY LIMITS
LEDUC COUNTYLEDUC COUNTY
20th Avenue 62519
EDMONTON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT
NISKU
9th
Stre
et
Que
en E
lizab
eth
II Hi
ghw
ay
Appr
oved
Spi
ne R
d.
Development Lands (WAM)
QEII Business Park(Hopewell)
First Park Nisku (First Industrial)
Finning
Regent
Ledcor
41st Avenue SW
Development Lands
(Remington)
North America Industrial Lease ComparisonsEdmonton, Canada
Lease Rate: $7.25Vacancy Rate: 1.5%
Note: Lease rates are based on industrial warehouse/distribution space GREATER than 10,000 square feet. CA$
Vacancy rates recorded Q4-2007Calgary, Canada
Lease Rate: $6.95Vacancy Rate: 1.6%
Vancouver, Canada
Lease Rate: $8.00Vacancy Rate: 1.5%
Toronto, Canada
Lease Rate: $5.89Vacancy Rate: 5.4%
Montreal, Canada
Lease Rate: $5.00Vacancy Rate: 9.7%
San Diego, USA
Lease Rate: $8.64Vacancy Rate: 8.3%
Seattle, USA
Lease Rate: $6.48Vacancy Rate: 6.2%
Los Angeles, USA
Lease Rate: $8.04Vacancy Rate: 3.0%
Chicago, USA
Lease Rate: $4.64Vacancy Rate: 8.8%
Phoenix, USA
Lease Rate: $5.98Vacancy Rate: 10.1%
Dallas, USA
Lease Rate: $3.40Vacancy Rate: 9.0%
Houston, USA
Lease Rate: $5.61Vacancy Rate: 6.1%
1
2
3
4
5
67
8
9
6
Philadelphia, USA
Lease Rate: $4.75Vacancy Rate: 7.9%
Detroit, USA
Lease Rate: $4.59Vacancy Rate: 13.3%
Atlanta, USA
Lease Rate: $3.83Vacancy Rate: 11.3%
10
12
13
14
11
15
# = Highest to lowest Lease Rates
• Speculative Construction
• Vacancy Rates
• Lease Rates
• Land Prices
• Challenges
• Future Land Supply
• Construction Costs!
• Costs for non-oil & gas participants
Greater Edmonton Industrial Forecast 2008
For additional information, please contact:
Richard Matthew Regional Research Director - Western Canada [email protected]
3555 Manulife Place 10180 - 101 Street Edmonton, Alberta
(P) 780.969.3008 (F) 780.424.7830