Presented at GECAFS Conference in Presented at GECAFS Conference in Katmandu, NepalKatmandu, Nepal

Land use and water Land use and water ResourcesResources

June 29-30, 2006June 29-30, 2006

ByBy

Dr. Pervaiz AmirDr. Pervaiz Amir

Coverage of this presentationCoverage of this presentation

1.1. Land Use/Land Cover Change as Driver Land Use/Land Cover Change as Driver for Water related Stresses (extreme for Water related Stresses (extreme events)events)

2. Some Brief Findings of APN Funded 2. Some Brief Findings of APN Funded Activities in two Selected SHU Activities in two Selected SHU Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas

Studies/SourcesStudies/Sources Land Use, Historical Perspectives focus on Indo-Gangetic Plains. Land Use, Historical Perspectives focus on Indo-Gangetic Plains.

Editors Y.P Abrol; Satpal Sangwan and M K Tiwari Allied Editors Y.P Abrol; Satpal Sangwan and M K Tiwari Allied Publishers. New Delhi. 2000Publishers. New Delhi. 2000

Socio-economic aspects of drought in Bahawalpur and Mirpur Socio-economic aspects of drought in Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas Hydrological Units of Pakistan. Khas Hydrological Units of Pakistan. Science and CultureScience and Culture. Vol . Vol 71 No7-8 July-August, 2005 the Indian Science News 71 No7-8 July-August, 2005 the Indian Science News Association. New Delhi.Association. New Delhi.

Climate Change and Water resources in South Asia- Proceedings Climate Change and Water resources in South Asia- Proceedings of Year end Workshop Kathmandu, 7-9 January, 2003 (of Year end Workshop Kathmandu, 7-9 January, 2003 (APN)APN)

Current Issues in Water Sector Current Issues in Water Sector

(Pakistan Water CAS-World Bank)- Pakistan’s Water Economy (Pakistan Water CAS-World Bank)- Pakistan’s Water Economy Running Dry Running Dry

In India: India’s Water Economy Bracing for Turbulent FutureIn India: India’s Water Economy Bracing for Turbulent Future

OBJECTIVES-APN OBJECTIVES-APN ProjectProject

Analyze recent climate variability and extreme Analyze recent climate variability and extreme events, and impacts on regional water resourcesevents, and impacts on regional water resources

Assess impacts of projected CC & variability and Assess impacts of projected CC & variability and associated extreme events, and socio-economic associated extreme events, and socio-economic changes, on water resourceschanges, on water resources

Determine vulnerability of regional water Determine vulnerability of regional water resources to CC; identify key risks to each sub-resources to CC; identify key risks to each sub-region and prioritize adaptation responsesregion and prioritize adaptation responses

Evaluate efficacy of various adaptation strategies Evaluate efficacy of various adaptation strategies or coping mechanisms that may reduce or coping mechanisms that may reduce vulnerability of regional water resourcesvulnerability of regional water resources

Provide inputs to relevant national and regional Provide inputs to relevant national and regional long-term development strategieslong-term development strategies

Agro Ecological Zones:

Main features of the agro-ecological zones of Pakistan

ZonePhysiography and

climateSoils and land use

Indus Delta lands along sea)

Arid tropical marine; annual rainfall 5-75 mm

Clayey soils in shallow basins while silty in (Coastal nearly flat areas; rice, sugar cane, banana, and pulses are the main crops

Southern Irrigated plain (Punjab + Upper Sindh)

Arid sub-tropical continental; annual rainfall 45-55 mm.

Calcareous silty, sandy loams and loams; cotton, wheat, mustard, sugarcane and berseem are the major crops.

Sandy deserts (Cholistan etc.)

Typical arid; annual rainfall 300-350 mm

Moderately calcareous sandy soils; mainly used for grazing.

Northern Irrigated pain 9upper Punjab)

Semiarid; mean monthly summer rainfall >200 mm and >45 mm in winter.

Eastern part consists of calcareous silt loams, and southern part mainly calcareous loams; wheat and millet are the main crops.

Wet Mountains (Northern areas)

Semiarid; humid; mean monthly rainfall 236 mm in summer and 116 mm in winter

Slightly to non-calcareous silt loams and silty calys; maize, wheat, olive and natural coniferous forests are main crops.

Northern Dry Mountains

Undifferentiated, very cold, snow fall common; 25-75 mm and in summer 10-20 mm.

Soils deep clayey in valleys and shallow on slopes, non-calcareous to acidic; main land use in grazing.

Western dry Mountains

Arid to semiarid: mean monthly rainfall up to 95 mm n summer and 30 mm in water

Mostly bare sloping rocks, in valleys loamy soils; main land use is grazing and wheat with flood water, fruit include apple, peaches, plum, apricot and grapes.

Dry western Plateau Arid tropical; mean monthly rainfall 36 mm in summer and 3 mm in winter

Soils in plains deep and calcareous silt loams; xerophytic vegetation, mainly grazing, vegetable and wheat with spring or kareze water at places.

Sulaiman Piedmont Arid & hot, subtropical continental; mean monthly winter railfall 13 & 21-38 mm in summer

Loams on gently sloping areas while clayey away, strongly calcareous; torrent watered and millet are main crops.

LAND UTILIZATION STATISTICS (Million HA)

Year/Provinc

e

Geographical area

Total area

reported col. (4 to

7)

Forest area

Not available

for Cultivation

Culturable

waste

Cultivated area

Col. (8+9)

Current

fallow

Net area sown

Area sown more than once

Total cropped area Col. (9+10_

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

2001-02PunjabSindhNWFPBaloch

20.6314.0910.1734.72

17.5214.098.3419.38

0.510.841.321.13

2.956.123.9111.33

1.631.271.224.83

12.435.861.892.09

1.403.430.511.26

11.032.431.380.83

5.070.730.630.02

16.103.162.010.85

Total 79.61 59.33 3.80 24.31 8.95 22.27 6.60 15.67 6.45 22.12

2002-03PunjabSindhNWFPBaloch

20.6314.0910.1734.72

17.5014.098.3519.51

0.510.841.331.36

2.886.123.9211.33

1.581.341.204.83

12.535.791.901.99

1.483.520.511.10

11.052.271.390.89

4.910.790.530.02

15.963.061.920.91

Total 79.61 59.45 4.04 24.25 9.85 22.21 6.61 15.60 6.25 21.85

2003-04Punjab (R)SindhNWFPBaloch (R)

20.6314.0910.1734.72

17.5014.098.3419.51

0.510.841.331.36

2.886.133.8611.33

1.581.411.264.83

12.535.711.891.99

1.482.950.521.10

11.052.761.370.89

(E)5.360.880.610.02

16.413.641.980.91

Total 79.61 59.44 4.04 9.08 9.08 22.12 6.05 16.07 6.87 22.94

E = EstimatedR = Repeated of last year.Source:- Provincial Agriculture Departments.

GEOGRAPHICAL AEA is that area which has been surveyed and calculated by the Survey of Pakistan.TOTAL AEA REPORTED is the total physical area of the village/deh, tehsil or district etc.FOREST AERA is the area of any land classed or administered as forest under any legal. Enactment

dealing with forests. Any cultivated area which may exist within such forest should be exclude (and shown under heading cultivated area).

•

Land Use/Land Cover As Driver of Land Use/Land Cover As Driver of ChangeChange

Land Use f { Resource Land Use f { Resource Endowments, Land Q, History, Endowments, Land Q, History,

Pop, climate (T and P)-changes, Pop, climate (T and P)-changes, skills and tradition, Type of skills and tradition, Type of

Agriculture, Infrastructure, Water Q Agriculture, Infrastructure, Water Q and Availability and Availability

+Investments,profitability +Investments,profitability Development Goals, T } Development Goals, T }

Virtual Water ContentVirtual Water Content

Agriculture viewed as virtual water outputs that Agriculture viewed as virtual water outputs that result in net transfer of water when the produce is result in net transfer of water when the produce is soldsold

Thus a water deficient country when it exports Thus a water deficient country when it exports wheat, rice, meat, beef and cheese, is essentially wheat, rice, meat, beef and cheese, is essentially using a large input of water that it transfers to water using a large input of water that it transfers to water scarce nationsscarce nations

In Pakistan wheat produced in Punjab and Sindh is In Pakistan wheat produced in Punjab and Sindh is being exported to neighboring provinces, NWFP and being exported to neighboring provinces, NWFP and Balouchistan- Balouchistan-

A what if Crisis in the Making- Wheat failure A what if Crisis in the Making- Wheat failure in India or China and these countries enter in India or China and these countries enter in as big buyers in the international arena!in as big buyers in the international arena!

Virtual Water Content of a Few Selected Virtual Water Content of a Few Selected

Products in MProducts in M33/Ton/Ton PotatoesPotatoes 160160

MaizeMaize 450450

MilkMilk 900900

MeatMeat 12001200

SoybeanSoybean 23002300

Rice Rice 27002700

PoultryPoultry 28002800

EggsEggs 47004700

CheeseCheese 53005300

BeefBeef 1600016000

Water Requirements Equivalent of Crop Water Requirements Equivalent of Crop

ProductionProduction CropCrop Water Water

Requiremnets per Requiremnets per hectare (mhectare (m33))

Yield Per Yield Per Hectare Hectare (Kg)(Kg)

Water Water Requirements (m3) Requirements (m3) for Producing 1 kgfor Producing 1 kg

Wheat Wheat 40504050 23882388 1.701.70

RiceRice 1026010260 20132013 5.105.10

SugarcaneSugarcane 1181011810 4730047300 0.250.25

CottonCotton 65006500 622622 10.4510.45

FodderFodder 46604660 2271922719 0.210.21

SELECTED SUB HYDROLOGICAL SELECTED SUB HYDROLOGICAL UNITSUNITS

Survey ObjectivesSurvey Objectives

To provide data on key To provide data on key aspects of Livelihood, aspects of Livelihood, Drought, Changes in Drought, Changes in magnitude, Rainfall magnitude, Rainfall pattern, Agriculture, pattern, Agriculture, Livestock, and certain Livestock, and certain coping mechanisms.coping mechanisms.

To report on farmers To report on farmers perceptions about perceptions about Drought in the areas of Drought in the areas of Bahawalpur and Mirpur Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas.Khas.

Source: APN Survey, July 2003-MirPur Khas

Crops damage during drought?

05

1015

2025

3035

40

Description

Perc

en

tag

e Cotton

Wheat

Sun flower

Pepper

Others

Any other damages experienced

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Description

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Cattle

Poultry

Grazing ground

Vegetable

Garden

Fruit Orchard

Strategies followed with respect to livestock during drought?

55%38%

7%

Reduce numbersby selling

Shift livestock toother areas

Others

Source: APN Survey, June 2003-Bahawalpur Note: Due to multiple responses, sample size exceeds 113

Effectiveness of water user organizations to motivate the farmers to solve the problems related to water use? (n=113)

   FrequencyFrequency PercentPercent Cumulative PercentCumulative Percent

No ResponseNo Response 1111 66 66

Borrow moneyBorrow money 55 33 99

Work in cityWork in city 1414 88 1717

Migrate to other areasMigrate to other areas 66 33 2121

Sale livestockSale livestock 104104 6060 8181

Sale of belongingSale of belonging 3232 1919 100100

TotalTotal 172172 100100   

   FrequencyFrequency PercentPercent Cumulative PercentCumulative Percent

No effectivenessNo effectiveness 110110 9797 9797

No ResponseNo Response 33 33 100100

TotalTotal 113113 100100   

Source: APN Survey, July 2003-MirPur Khas

Adjustments adopted to cope with the last drought? (n=113)

Findings of APN SurveyFindings of APN SurveyLand size small, dependence on desert and periphery on livestock. Land size small, dependence on desert and periphery on livestock. Carrying capacity becoming problem during droughtCarrying capacity becoming problem during drought

Minimal govt or NGO support. Food main expense. Income low and Minimal govt or NGO support. Food main expense. Income low and uncertainuncertain

Main reason for drought rainfall. High shadow price of water during Main reason for drought rainfall. High shadow price of water during droughtdrought

Little application of advanced technology, sprinkler, centrifuge-Little application of advanced technology, sprinkler, centrifuge-Egypt, IsraelEgypt, Israel

Droughts damage crops, livestock, pastures, gardens and distort Droughts damage crops, livestock, pastures, gardens and distort livelihoodlivelihood

Major difference in crop and livestock yields . Statistically Major difference in crop and livestock yields . Statistically significantsignificant

Decision making framework compels step-wise adoption. Need Decision making framework compels step-wise adoption. Need drought and salt tolerant varietiesdrought and salt tolerant varieties

Water scarcity, well digging now at 250 feet. We must conserve Water scarcity, well digging now at 250 feet. We must conserve total water, price it and regulate its use No more a free good.total water, price it and regulate its use No more a free good.

Considerable political turmoil. Droughts fueling controversy.Considerable political turmoil. Droughts fueling controversy.

Linear application inappropriateLinear application inappropriate

Drought forces an Exit strategy where options exist. Food security Drought forces an Exit strategy where options exist. Food security not problem but purchasing power lackingnot problem but purchasing power lacking

Water user association, extension in-effective. Livestock Water user association, extension in-effective. Livestock extension rated good. Policy interventions needed. extension rated good. Policy interventions needed.

People Cope with livestock sale, equipment, gold and belongings. People Cope with livestock sale, equipment, gold and belongings. Long tem impacts on human lives, asset inventory, and Long tem impacts on human lives, asset inventory, and sustainability of systemssustainability of systems

Droughts affect people physiologically, depress them and changes Droughts affect people physiologically, depress them and changes their perspective on life their perspective on life

CC FindingsCC Findings

92% of the country’s area is arid to semi-arid 92% of the country’s area is arid to semi-arid – thus the climate change will have negative – thus the climate change will have negative impact on availability of water because of:impact on availability of water because of: Extremes are going to be severe i.e. droughtsExtremes are going to be severe i.e. droughts Reduced rainfall in the arid and semi-arid Reduced rainfall in the arid and semi-arid

monsoonal regionsmonsoonal regions Reduced snowfall in the valleys of the arid winter Reduced snowfall in the valleys of the arid winter

dominant rainfall regions of Balochistan dominant rainfall regions of Balochistan

Contribution by GlaciersContribution by Glaciers

River SystemRiver System ContributionContribution

(% of Total)(% of Total)Contribution of NAs to Indus Contribution of NAs to Indus RiverRiver

7272

Contribution of NAs to Indus Contribution of NAs to Indus Basin SystemBasin System

3434

Contribution of Glaciers- and Contribution of Glaciers- and Snow-meltSnow-melt

2929

Contribution of GlaciersContribution of Glaciers 2020

Shahid 2004

Sum up land Use and WaterSum up land Use and WaterChange in water availability is evident – Change in water availability is evident – impacts of variability or climate change – impacts of variability or climate change – persistent drought is a phenomena of persistent drought is a phenomena of severity of extremesseverity of extremesIncreasing trend in Water Demand – Increasing trend in Water Demand – competing water users – people, agriculture, competing water users – people, agriculture, nature nature Physical limitations with the surface water Physical limitations with the surface water resourcesresourcesGroundwater Resource Limitations -Quantity Groundwater Resource Limitations -Quantity and Quality – exploiting the marginal quality and Quality – exploiting the marginal quality zone zone

Meeting the Water Stress Meeting the Water Stress Challenge in AgricultureChallenge in Agriculture

Water conservation (raised bed furrow Water conservation (raised bed furrow technology)technology)

Efficiency options (sprinkler, trickle, drip Efficiency options (sprinkler, trickle, drip etc.)etc.)

New Storages for RegulationNew Storages for Regulation

Supply and Demand ManagementSupply and Demand Management

Addressing water Rights an entitlementsAddressing water Rights an entitlements

Managing the Management NexusManaging the Management Nexus

Macro Implication of Water Saving with Macro Implication of Water Saving with Adoption of Resource Conservation Adoption of Resource Conservation

TechnologiesTechnologies

DescriptionDescription Cropping Zone/CropsCropping Zone/Crops

Rice-WheatRice-Wheat CottonCotton RiceRice

Area (Mac)Area (Mac) 5.225.22 7.77.7 5.225.22

Water Requirements (mm)Water Requirements (mm) 405405 650650 10221022

Resource Conservation Resource Conservation TechnologyTechnology

Zero tillage Zero tillage drilldrill

Bed and Bed and Furrow Furrow

Direct Direct seedingseeding

Water Saved by RCTs (%)Water Saved by RCTs (%) 2020 40-4540-45 2525

Water Saved by RCTs Water Saved by RCTs (mm)(mm)

8181 260260 409409

Net Water saving (MAF)Net Water saving (MAF) 1.391.39 6.576.57 7.007.00

Source: OFWM, 1999-2000 and Dhillon and Sidhu, 2004

Water channelsWater channels

Water PondsWater Ponds

Watercourse ImprovementWatercourse Improvement

Improved Farm LayoutImproved Farm Layout

Laser Land LevelingLaser Land Leveling

Improved Irrigation Application MethodsImproved Irrigation Application Methods

Bed And Furrow IrrigationBed And Furrow Irrigation

Rain-Gun Irrigation System For RouniRain-Gun Irrigation System For Rouni

Efficient Irrigation Systems For OrchardsEfficient Irrigation Systems For Orchards

Drip/Trickle IrrigationDrip/Trickle Irrigation

Improved Cropping PatternImproved Cropping Pattern

Groundwater Quality ZonationGroundwater Quality Zonation

Skimming WellsSkimming Wells

Use Of Low Quality Groundwater For Agriculture Use Of Low Quality Groundwater For Agriculture

Reuse Of WastewaterReuse Of Wastewater

Water Quality MonitoringWater Quality Monitoring

Irrigation SchedulingIrrigation Scheduling

Resource Conservation Technology Resource Conservation Technology

Technologies For Irrigated Areas

Small/ Mini DamsSmall/ Mini Dams

Dug WellsDug Wells

Pressurized Irrigation SystemsPressurized Irrigation Systems

Soil And Water Conservation PracticesSoil And Water Conservation Practices

Contouring Contouring

Strip CroppingStrip Cropping

TerracingTerracing

Tillage PracticesTillage Practices

Soil And Water Conservation StructuresSoil And Water Conservation Structures

Technologies For Barani Areas

Rainwater harvestingRainwater harvesting

Reducing evaporationReducing evaporation

Evaporation from open water surfacesEvaporation from open water surfaces

Evaporation from soil surfacesEvaporation from soil surfaces

Afforestation/drought resistant plantsAfforestation/drought resistant plants

Saline agricultureSaline agriculture

Technologies For Desert areas

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