Presented at AIDS 2010 in Vienna - Austria

  Census Year

19961996-2001

2001-2011

Population

2633504 2706775 2745590

In-Migration 210260 84010 116153

Out-Migration 148260 128247 139596

Net-Migration 62000 -44237 -23443

Trends in Migration and the associated push and pull factors: A case study for the Free State Province

Ntebogeng Madlopha, Tshepang Chueu and Dimakatso Molefe

Statistics South Africa, Free State Province

Methods

The data used in this study is secondary data from Statistics South Africa’s Census 2011. Census 2011 used a de facto method for collection of data wherein people were counted where they were found or stayed on the census

night i.e. midnight of the 9th/10th October 2011. The study will determine migration trends for the Free State province using the following indicators; in-migration, out-migration and net migration.

Limitations:

This study will only look at Census 2001 and 2011 without making comparisons with other studies. Further analysis will look into the time period prior 2001 as well as similar data sets.

Results

The study revealed (figure 1) that the highest inflow to the Free State population was experienced in 2011 with a total of 127101 migrants moving into the Free State Province. The inflow for 2001 was lower that in 2011 with 84010 migrants. For both census years 2001 (Baseline, Census 1996) and 2011, the net migration dropped to negative 44237 and 24301 respectively .

Introduction

Over the past 30 years the movement of people has emerged as a major force throughout the world mainly influenced by political, socio-cultural and economic dynamics (Massey, 1993; Solomon, 1996). The consequences of migration, due to its nature of push and pull factors, has been felt differently in developing and developed countries. South Africa has emerged as one of the leading receiving countries targeted by migrants, both internally and across the border, in search for better economic opportunities (Tsietsi 1998; Adepoju 2003b; Massey et al 1993). This has sometimes placed a strain on the already limited resources in poor communities.

Social-economic factors act as push catalyst in the area of origin but also as pull factors in the place of destination. For example, Lesotho and other Southern African countries supply labour migrants to South Africa and this illustrates how economic factors interact to prompt migration. Hence the trend indicates that a majority of migrants target urban areas which are the economic hubs of South Africa (Massey et al. 1993).

The purpose of this study is to determine migration trends of the Free State province between the years 2001 and 2011 using Census data, as well as to determine migrations streams associated with the Free State Province.

Figure 2 above indicates in-migration flows into the Free State from other provinces in the country. Amongst the eight provinces, Gauteng has the highest movement of people into the Free State with 33.3% followed by Eastern Cape with 17.0%. The least movement of people into the Free State is from Western Cape and Mpumalanga provinces with 5.4% each.

Figure 3 above represents international migration into the Free State province from census 2011 results. The results indicate that 59.3% of all international immigrants in the Free State are from Lesotho and 13.2% from Zimbabwe. All other countries except the mentioned SADC countries constitute a total contribution of 19.7%. Swaziland constitute the least from all countries with only 0.4%

Conclusions

The results of this study point out to the impact of a negative net migration on the population growth of the Free State province. The migration streams demonstrate a potential source of service delivery protests and conflicts as communities compete for limited resources. There is therefore a need to revive the farming and the mining industry in the province in order to stimulate a positive net migration and to improve service delivery.

Literature cited

Douglas S. Massey, Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino,J. Edward Taylor Source: Population and Development Review, Vol. 19, No. 3 (Sep., 1993), pp. 431-466Published by: Population Council Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2938462

Hussein Solomon (1996) STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES ON ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION INTO SOUTH AFRICA,

African Security Review, 5:4, 3-15, DOI: 10.1080/10246029.1996.9627681

http://www.statssa.gov.za/Publications/CensusHandBook/CensusHandbook.pdf. Last date accessed: 04 October 2013

Figure 1: Free State migration flows

Discussion

The result of study indicate that overall the Free State province is receiving fewer people and more are leaving the province. Together with other population dynamics this has had a negative impact on the population growth rate of the Free State province.

The in-migration stream indicates that the Free State province is receiving more people from Gauteng province. This may be made up of both labour migrants and former residents of the province returning to the Free State.

As indicated in the introduction, Lesotho and Zimbabwe (59.3% and 13.2% respectively) are sending more migrants to the Free State province due to economic and opportunities in the Free State province and push factors such as poverty and political instability experienced in the home countries.

Census 2001 Census 2011

In-Migration 84010 127101

Out-Migration 128247 151402

Net-Migration -44237 -24301-75000

-25000

25000

75000

125000

175000

Num

bers

Weste

rn Cap

e

Eastern

Cape

Northern

Cape

KwaZulu-N

atal

North W

est

Gauteng

Mpumalanga

Limpopo

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

5.4

17.0

9.512.6

10.7

33.3

5.4 6.0

Figure 2: Provincial in-flow ,Census 2011

%

Leso

tho

Namibia

Botswan

a

Zimbab

we

Mozambique

Swaz

iland

Malawi

Other

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

59.3

0.6 0.5

13.2

4.80.4 1.5

19.7

Figure 3: International inflow, Census 2011

%