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Faith and Skepticism: Conflicting Global Views of Trade and Foreign Investment Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes
September 16, 2014 2 www.pewresearch.org
Pew Research Center
• Funded largely by the Pew Charitable Trusts
• Non-profit, non-partisan “fact tank” in Washington
• Research areas • U.S. domestic politics • Media & news • Social trends • Religion and public life • Internet and technology • Hispanics • Global public opinion
• Since 2002, Pew has surveyed in 82 countries
• www.pewresearch.org
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Methodology
• Surveys conducted across 44 countries from 17 March 2014 to 5 June 2014, totaling 48,643 respondents
• Based on nationally representative telephone and face-to-face interviews with adults 18 and older conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International
• The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ±3.1% - ±4.5%
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Countries Surveyed in 2014
OVERVIEW
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Mixed Views in 44 Countries on Trade, Foreign Investment
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Note: Global medians across 44 countries surveyed.
Median view that …
81%
74
54
45
45
26
Trade is good
Foreign companies building factories in our country is good
Trade creates jobs
Trade raises wages
Foreign companies buying domestic companies is good
Trade decreases prices
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Developing Nations More Positive about the Benefits
Note: Medians by country economic categorization.
84%
74
44
31
28
25
78%
70
52
44
24
45
87%
85
66
57
29
55
Advanced Emerging Developing
Trade is good
Foreign companies building factories is good
Trade decreases prices
Trade creates jobs
Foreign companies buying companies is good
Trade raises wages
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Americans Less Convinced Trade Is Good Growing trade and business ties with other countries are a good thing
Note: 14 country median based on countries surveyed in 2002, 2007-10 and 2014. U.S. not included in median.
78
59
53
65 66 68
83 78 80 81
84
76
40
60
80
100
2002 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
14 country median
U.S.
%
Americans Relatively Unsure of the Benefits
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Note: Medians by country economic categorization. Advanced median excludes U.S.
20%
17
28
44%
28
31
52%
45
44
66%
55
57
U.S. Advanced Emerging Developing
Trade creates jobs
Foreign companies buying domestic
companies is good
Trade raises wages
U.S. Among TPP, TTIP Outliers on Trade and Jobs
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Trade with other countries leads to job creation
55%
50
24
20
15
13
TPP countries
TTIP countries
France
U.S.
Japan
Italy
Note: TPP country median based on five countries (Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru & Vietnam). Excludes U.S. & Japan. TTIP country median based on five countries (Germany, Greece, Poland, Spain & UK). Excludes U.S., France & Italy.
TRADE VIEWS
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Developing Nations Think Trade Creates Jobs Trade with other countries leads to …
Note: Medians by country economic categorization.
44%
52
66
24% 21
12
33%
19 17
Advanced Emerging Developing
Job creation No difference Job losses
Mostly Advanced Economies Who Say Trade Destroys Jobs
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Creates jobs Destroys jobs Does not make a
difference
Top 6 (35%+) % % %
Italy 13 59 23
U.S. 20 50 25
France 24 49 26
Colombia 28 42 21
Greece 44 39 15
Japan 15 38 41
Trade with other countries ...
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Developing Nations Think Trade Increases Wages Trade with other countries leads to worker wage …
Note: Medians by country economic categorization.
25%
45
55
33%
24
14
35%
20 20
Advanced Emerging Developing
Increases No difference Decreases
The Countries Most Likely to Say Trade Lowers Wages
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Trade with other countries leads to worker wage …
Increases Decreases Does not make a
difference
Top 10 (30%+) % % %
Italy 7 52 33 Greece 21 49 27 France 14 47 38 U.S. 17 45 32 Colombia 22 43 24 Japan 10 37 46 Jordan 45 37 17 Spain 28 33 31 Germany 28 31 33 Turkey 28 31 24
Developing Economies See Trade Fueling Inflation
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Trade with other countries leads prices to …
35%
42
50
31%
21 15
28% 24
29
Advanced Emerging Developing
Increase No difference Decrease
Note: Medians by country economic categorization.
INVESTMENT VIEWS
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Strongly Contrasting Views of Foreign Investment
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Note: Medians by country economic categorization.
Foreign companies building factories
in our country is good
Foreign companies buying domestic
companies is good Diff
% %
Advanced 74 31 +43
Developing 85 57 +28
Emerging 70 44 +26
Global 74 45 +29
Countries That Most Dislike Foreign M&A
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Foreign companies buying domestic companies is …
Good Bad
Top 9 (60%+) % %
Germany 19 79 Japan 17 76 Italy 23 73 Tunisia 25 73 South Korea 30 68 France 32 68 U.S. 28 67 Greece 31 66 Turkey 30 62
AMERICAN VIEWS
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TOTAL
Men Women 18-29 30-49 50+ Less than post-secondary Post-secondary Lower income Upper income
Older, Less Educated, Low Income, Female Americans Wary
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Americans who think …
Trade is bad
%
28
28 27
21 30 29
30
26
29 25
Trade decreases
wages %
45
43 48
43 44 48
42
48
46 45
Trade destroys
jobs %
50
46 55
43 50 55
54
48
54 47
Trade increases
prices %
32
28 35
35 34 28
37
28
38 24
Foreign companies buying U.S. companies
is bad %
67
66 67
64 64 72
64
69
62 72
Foreign companies
building factories in U.S. is bad
%
23
20 26
19 22 26
30
19
28 17
Limited Partisan Splits on Trade and Investment
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Trade is bad
Trade decreases
wages
Trade destroys
jobs
Trade increases
prices
Foreign companies buying U.S. companies
is bad
Foreign companies
building factories in U.S. is bad
% % % % % %
TOTAL 28 45 50 32 67 23
Republican 29 44 54 31 75 28
Independent 28 42 49 29 67 23
Democrat 26 49 50 33 66 20 Rep-Dem
diff. +3 -5 +4 -2 +9 +8
Few Significant Changes in U.S. Trade Views over Time
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2010 data from People-Press November 4-7, 2010 survey. In 2010, asked about “free trade agreements.” In 2014, asked only about “trade.”
Impact of trade on… 2010 2014
Price of products % %
Increase 31 32 Decrease 31 35 No difference 25 28 Wages in U.S. Increase 8 17 Decrease 45 45 No difference 34 32 Jobs in the U.S. Create jobs 8 20 Lead to job losses 55 50 No difference 24 25
IMPLICATIONS FOR TPP AND TTIP
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Italians Most Wary about TTIP Benefits
Trade is good
Trade increases
wages
Trade creates
jobs
Trade lowers prices
Foreign companies
buying companies is
good
Foreign companies
building factories is
good % % % % % %
Spain 91 28 56 22 43 85
Germany 90 28 43 26 19 66
UK 88 34 50 24 39 82
Greece 79 21 44 35 31 67
Poland 78 38 51 26 40 75
France 73 14 24 28 32 75
U.S. 68 17 20 35 28 75
Italy 59 7 13 22 23 61
Japanese Least Enthusiastic among TPP Countries
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Trade is good
Trade increases
wages
Trade creates
jobs
Trade lowers prices
Foreign companies
buying companies
is good
Foreign companies
building factories is good
% % % % % %
Vietnam 95 72 78 31 59 80
Malaysia 87 47 57 9 45 78
Chile 85 27 52 28 53 68
Peru 81 42 55 24 59 70
Mexico 71 31 43 24 50 69
Japan 69 10 15 27 17 58
U.S. 68 17 20 35 28 75
All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org
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