MYBACKGROUND

MYBACKGROUND

Govern

NOT MY BACKGROUND

EconomicEconomicPoliticalPoliticalMilitaryMilitary

EEPPMM

E=Economic P=Political M=Military

http://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/Military_Law/pdf/03-2002.pdf

SPECTRUM OF CONFLICT

NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES IN 2014 AND BEYOND

http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/News/084619-2011-02-25-peter-dale-scott-war-martial-law-and-the-economic-crisis.htmhttp://m.anyclip.com/movies/get-smart/intelligence-about-coffee/

Sovereignty and Persons under International Law:(a) a permanent population; (b) a defined territory; (c) government; and (d) capacity to enter into relations with the other states.In a world where nations extend their strategic capacities along a fifth dimension, how is the concept of sovereignty to be deployed and understood?

U.S. SOVEREIGNTY CHALLENGES IN 2014 AND BEYOND

#1 RISK – Cyberwarfare / Cybercrime Escalation #2 RISK – African Instability Escalation#3 RISK – AF/PK Crisis Escalation#3 RISK – Middle East / Central Asian Crisis Escalation #4 RISK – Korean Peninsula / Asian Crisis Escalation #5 RISK – Latin & North American Crisis Escalation

Portions Adapted From:http://www.mccaffreyassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Withdrawal-Under-Pressure-February-2013.pdf

NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES IN 2013 AND BEYOND

CYBERWARFARE / CYBERCRIME ESCALATION• The capacity to produce,

communication, and use information is affecting every area of national security, from the way we govern ourselves ("e-government") to the way we fight wars ("information warfare") to the way transnational criminal organizations increase in scope and power to the way activists and extremists mobilize support across borders.

• “An ‘arc of instability’ stretching from the Western Hemisphere, through Africa and the Middle East and extending to Asia.”• “Constellation” of hush-hush US drone, commando or intelligence facilities in East Africa including Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia

and the island nation of the Seychelles, and now … Mali to combat terrorism.• Political discontent, ethnic rivalries and economic frustration to fuel their strategy of terror and violence in places like North Africa,

Yemen, the Horn of Africa and countries bordering the Sahara Desert.

AFRICAN INSTABILITY ESCALATION

http://www.law.uconn.edu/files/Govern.pdf http://www.defense.gov/news/mar2005/d20050318nms.pdf http://www.jcs.mil//content/files/2011-02/020811084800_2011_NMS_-_08_FEB_2011.pdf

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-building-secret-drone-bases-in-africa-arabian-peninsula-officials-say/2011/09/20/gIQAJ8rOjK _story.html

• 150,000 US/NATO forces 870 miles from the open sea. • Pakistan transit essential to logistics survival of the force. • 2014 declared withdrawal drives entire political/ military calculus of the Afghan Karzai government and the Taliban. • If Pakistan implodes - General Kayani and PK Army/ISI lose control security of 90- 110 nuclear weapons at risk; threats to India … and

beyond

AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN (AF/PK) CRISIS ESCALATION

http://www.cfr.org/afghanistan/beyond-af-pak/p18696

• Implosion of Iraq, aggression by Iran, and expanded war in the Gulf.• From “Jasmine Revolution” to “Arab Spring” to “Authoritarian Fall?”• Syria-Lebanon-Israel conflict?• Central Asia could be:

1) the next mass target of Islamic insurgents; 2) on the verge of a client-state battle between Moscow and Beijing; or 3) fated to authoritarian leaders for the next generation.

MIDDLE EAST / CENTRAL ASIAN CRISIS ESCALATION

http://beforeitsnews.com/media/2013/04/instability-worries-and-policy-discussion-move-to-central-asia-2454336.htmlhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/19/the_curse_of_stability_in_central_asia

• North Korean posturing of Kim Jong Un leads to increased isolation, economic hardship, possible military/nuclear confrontation.• China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines have competing territorial and jurisdictional claims in the South China

Sea, particularly over rights to exploit the region's possibly extensive reserves of oil and gas. • Freedom of navigation in the region is also a contentious issue - $5.3 trillion of trade passes through the South China Sea; U.S. trade

accounts for $1.2 trillion of this total.

KOREAN PENINSULA/ASIAN CRISIS ESCALATION

http://www.cfr.org/north-korea/us-policy-toward-korean-peninsula/p22205 http://www.cfr.org/east-asia/armed-clash-south-china-sea/p27883

• Mexico, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, and Ecuador have had presidential elections / power transitions in 2012-2013, leading to some of the region’s biggest news stories of the year.

• Paraguay in April, Honduras in November, Chile in December, 2013.• Mexico’s Enrique Peña Nieto attempting to dissasociate the country’s image from drugs, cartels and bloodshed – but each of the past

two years, there have been more violent deaths and more weapons recovered in Mexico than any other place on earth.

LATIN & NORTH AMERICAN CRISIS ESCALATION

http://www.soc.mil/swcS/SWmag/archive/SW2504/SW2504AheadOfTheGuns.html http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2013/01/03/what-to-watch-in-2013-latin-americas-presidential-elections/

https://knightcenter.utexas.edu/blog/00-13453-mexican-government-tries-change-conversation-violence-continues-us-correspondents-disc

Q&A AND CONCLUSION