Prepared by: Melanie Weaver, Waterfowl Program Lead

Prepared for: Fish and Game Commission Meeting August 5, 2015 Agenda Item 29

2015-2016 Status of Waterfowl, Habitats

and Hunting Recommendations

Brief background on “waterfowl”Brief summary of process of population

assessment and overarching approach to regulation setting

Current status of habitatsCurrent status of waterfowl populationsSpecific regulation recommendations

Presentation Overview

Primary wintering grounds in Pacific Flyway

“Waterfowl” not 1 species: 8 goose populations from Russia, Alaska, Canada, all

western states28 duck species from Canada, all western states

Stakeholders are not just CaliforniansA shared resource and managed at a Flyway scale

Alaska nativesOther statesFederal government

But individual states can adopt more restrictive regulations

Waterfowl in California

Populations Assessed Annually

USFWS, CWS, CA and many other statesMethodologies consistent and peer reviewedMonitor most species, but mallards “key stone”Longest running, most comprehensive wildlife survey

CA survey conducted since 1948, redesigned 1992USFWS and CWS conducted since 1955

Scope of the USFWS - CWS annual waterfowl survey

Regulation DevelopmentUSFWS sets “frameworks” annually based on current

year data and analysesToday DFW is recommending 2015-16 regulations

But for the 2016-17 regulationsFrameworks based on predicted populationsProduct of USFWS EISRequest to Notice in December, 2015FGC Adoption in April, 2016

“Frameworks”Maximum season length/bag limitsEarliest open and latest closing datesMigratory Bird Treaty Act limits hunting to 107 days

For ducks: annual breeding population surveysFor Pacific Flyway: AK, OR and CAAbout to add British Columbia and Washington

Harvest rates (from banded ducks)State of the art modeling framework

Harvest objective: sustainable harvest over the long term

For geese:Annual goose surveysAnnual harvest surveys

Frameworks Based On:

Modeling contextMallards drive the general duck regulations

Generally most abundant duck (population and harvest)Life history characteristics similar to most other species Separate harvest strategies for pintail, scaup, canvasback

Mid-continent mallards used prior to 2008Relied solely on USFWS – CWS survey (prairies)

In 2008, Western Mallard model adoptedUses western state data explicitlyHistorically, mallards more productive in west

Western Mallard Model

Local stocks (AK, CA-OR) rather than midcontinent

Harvest strategy more responsive to local conditions

Conservative model < maximum sustained yield updates annually Based on population growth rate and harvest rates Incorporates statistical uncertainty Implemented through 4 regulatory options:

Liberal, Moderate, Restrictive and Closed Varying season lengths and bag limits

Model prescribes an optimal regulatory option given objective

2015 Breeding Habitat Conditions

Waterfowl Status

Continental Ducks (all species): similar to last year (record high)Mallard & Green-wings = record highPintail, Canvasback, Scaup = no change

Pacific Flyway mallards:CA record low, unchanged in OR, down in AK

All but 2 goose populations over objectiveFederal frameworks for ducks are liberal

except Scaup

Current Status Goal

N CA Canada geese No survey 1,250Cackling Canada geese 311,100 250,000

Aleutian Canada geese 189,110 60,000Black Brant 157,700 162,000Pacific Whitefront geese 565,400 300,000Snow geese (Russia) 185,000 120,000Snow geese (Canada) 434,000 200,000

Ross’ geese 770,000 100,000

Goose Population Status

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Mallard Breeding Populations in CA, OR, and AK

Western Mallards

Alaska

California

Oregon

Mallards in CaliforniaBreeding Population EstimatesCompared to long term average

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Wintering Habitat ConditionsAnticipate reduced wetland & agriculture habitats

Size of reduction currently unknownTiming of water deliveries currently unknownWater availability differs within hunting zones

Hunting seasons = incentive for creating habitat>65% wetland habitat in CA is privately owned

Recommendations

Ducks – seasons and bag limits

100-105 day seasonsVaries by zone

7/day, no more than:7 mallards, 2 hens2 pintail2 canvasback (increase of 1/day)2 redheads3 scaup/86 days

Ducks – Season DatesNE Zone: Oct 10 – Jan 22 (105 days)

Scaup: Oct 10 – Dec 6 (58 days) & Dec 26 – Jan 22 (28 days)

BOS, SSJV, So CA Zones: Oct 24 – Jan 31 (100 days)Scaup: Nov 7 – Jan 31 (86 days)

CO River Zone: Oct 16 – Jan 24 (101 days)Scaup: Oct 31 – Jan 24 (86 days)Must match AZ regulations

Geese – seasons and bag limits100 – 107 day seasons

Varies by zone

Generally 25/day15 white geese10 dark geeseBrant 2/dayZone/Special Management Area regulations –

no changes

Increase Brant Season Length

Increase season length from 30 to 37 days3-yr midwinter survey average exceeds 135,000Flyway management plan allows increase in harvest

at this levelMay result in an additional 200 to 500 brant

harvestedRecommendation:

Northern Brant: Nov 8 – Dec 14Balance of State Brant: Nov 9 – Dec 15

Geese – DatesNE Zone

Regular SeasonDark geese: Oct 10 – Jan 17 (100 days)White geese: Nov 7 – Jan 17 (72 days) OR Oct 24 – Jan 3 (72 days)

Late SeasonWhite geese: Feb 7 – Mar 10 (33 days)Whitefronts: Mar 6 – Mar 10 (5 days)

25/day: 15 white and 10 dark geese, no more than 2 Large Canada geese

GeeseBalance of State Zone

Early Season Canada geeseOct 3 – Oct 7 (5 days)

Regular Season (all geese)Oct 24 – Jan 31(100 days)

Late SeasonWhitefronts & white geese: Feb 13 – Feb 17 (5

days)25/day: 15 white and 10 dark geese

GeeseOther zones

SSJV Zone: Oct 24 – Jan 31 (100 days)25/day: 15 white and 10 dark geese

So CA Zone: Oct 24 – Jan 31 (100 days)18/day: 15 white and 3 dark geese

CO River Zone: Oct 16 – Jan 24 (101days)10/day: up to 10 white and 4 dark geeseCA must match AZ adjacent zone

Lastly…

North Coast Special Management AreaRegular Season: Nov 8 – Jan 31 (85 days)Late Season: Feb 20 – Mar 10 (20 days)

Sac Valley Special Management AreaOct 24 – Dec 21 (59 days)

Imperial Valley Special Management AreaRegular Season: Nov 7 – Jan 31 (86 days)Late Season: Feb 6 – Feb 21 (16 days)

Youth Hunt DaysNE Zone 14 days prior, 2 daysAll other zones 7 days after, 2 days

Falconry – no change

Questions?

Contact: Melanie Weaver, Waterfowl Program Leadmelanie.weaver@wildlife.ca.gov(916) 445-3717

Photo by Chris Nicolai

NE Zone White Goose Late Season

32 day late season hunt started in 2013-14Private lands onlyModeled after North Coast and Imperial Special

Management areasEstablished as a tool to alleviate goose

depredationBasin refuges have minimal harvest of white

geese in October, hunting tool needs to be available in Jan for spring return

18 Type C areas 12 dominated by sagebrush or conifers4 dominated by riparian habitat2 dominated by seasonal wetlands

Hunting opportunity low for geese

NE ZoneType C Areas

Oct Nov Dec Jan0

20

40

60

80

100

120 Klamath Tule Lake

Average Harvest on KB Refuges2005-2014

Oct Nov Dec Jan0.00

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00 Klamath Tule Lake

Average Survey on KB Refuges2005-2014

Oct Nov Dec Jan0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1,000.00

1,200.00

1,400.00

1,600.00 Siskiyou Modoc Lassen

NE County Average Harvest2005-2011

Local Mallard Concern?Breeding population 20% below last year and

34% below LTA – lowest estimate on record

Mallards banded in CA = high % of CA mallard harvest

Higher proportion of ducks shot early are local

Should limits be reduced?

Most hunters do not achieve daily bag limits

Mallard Bag Discussion Bag 1: range of 47% - 56% Bag 2: range of 23.2% – 23.4% Bag 3: range of 10% - 12% Bag 7: range of 2% - 3%

Conclusion: to protect mallards without reducing season length, bag limit would have to be reduced substantially

19901992

19942002

20042006

20082010

20122014

0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.160.180.20

CA Adult Male Harvest Rates

19901992

19942002

20042006

20082010

20122014

00.020.040.060.08

0.10.120.140.160.18

CA-OR Adult Male Harvest Rates

What reduction in daily bag limit equates to a 14 day season length

reduction?

100 day seasons (1996-2011) average harvest = 315,000

100 day season (2012) = 243,000

100 day season (2013) = 128,000

86 day season (1984) = 265,000

-Bag limit in 1984 was 5, not 7-Excluding 2002 and 2004

Need a 15% reduction in harvest to obtain moderate season harvest

Mallard Harvest in California100 day seasons (1996-2011) avg = 315,000100 day season (2012) = 243,000100 day season (2013) = 128,000100 day season (2014) = 106,370

2013-14 = overall decline in duck harvest

Average Mallard Harvest by Month*

October November December January60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

*For years with 100 day ducks seasons: 1996-2001, 2003, 2005-2014

Alaska Breeding Mallards / CA Harvest

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000Alaska Mallards

CA Harvested Mallards

Year

Ala

ska

BP

OP

(in

tho

usan

ds)

Mallard Harvest VS Season Length

19621966

19701974

19781982

19861990

19941998

20022006

20100

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120Harvest Days

Days

Mallard Harvest

Model-based Flyway Predictions

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

All Mall

Males

Females

Daily Bag Limit

% R

ed

uc

tio

n i

n H

arv

es

t

86 Day Straight OptionNE Zone: Oct 10 – Jan 3

BOS, So CA, SSJV zones: Nov 7 – Jan 31

Co R Zone: Must match Arizona

Goose seasons remain 100+ days

86 Day Split Option???NE Zone: Oct 10 – Oct 18 (9) &

Oct 27 – Jan 11 (77)

BOS, So CA, SSJV Zones: Oct 24 -

CO R Zone: Must match Arizona

Goose seasons remain 100+ days

CA Mallard Harvest2012 = 243,4672013 = 127,977 2014 = 106,370

Most species declined in harvest in 2014