[premoney sf 2015] founders fund >> scott nolan, "nuclear 2.0: past, potential and...
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Nuclear 2.0:Past, potential and politics
Scott NolanPartner, Founders Fund
Energy Portfolio
StorageGeneration
More to come…
@scottnolan
I. Energy
II. Nuclear
III. Regulation
IV. Politics
@scottnolan
Fossil fuels still dominate US consumption
Source: US Energy Information Association, http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec1_7.pdf @scottnolan
Global energy mix hasn’t changed much in 25 years
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011 @scottnolan
Peak oil still a valid concern
Source: Colin Campbell, Association for the Study of Peak Oil, 2012 @scottnolan
Climate change: harder to find skeptics
Source: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report - Summary for Policymakers @scottnolan
Tech alone won’t achieve 2035 targets
Source: World Energy Outlook 2011, Executive Summary @scottnolan
Meanwhile, forecasts call for status quo through 2035
2035
Source: SRI Engineering, Stanford Global Climate and Energy Project @scottnolan
Nuclear the most effective option to reduce CO2
Source: Lang, “Emission Cuts Realities - Electricity Generation” 2010 @scottnolan
Nuclear also the most affordable and scalable
Source: Lang, “Emission Cuts Realities - Electricity Generation” 2010 @scottnolan
Globally, heading backwards
Source: US Energy Information Administration @scottnolan
I. Energy
II. Nuclear
III. Regulation
IV. Politics
@scottnolan
The basics
FusionFission
Splitting heavy atoms
Operating today
Combining light atoms
Breakthroughs needed
@scottnolan
40s & 50s: nuclear’s golden age
Chicago Pile-1 (1942) USS Nautilus (1954)
@scottnolan
Limitless possibility
“Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter... It is not too much to expect that our
children will know of great periodic regional famines in the world only as matters of history, will travel effortlessly over
the seas and under them and through the air with a minimum of danger and at great speeds, and will experience
a lifespan far longer than ours, as disease yields and man comes to understand what causes him to age."
Lewis StraussChairman of US Atomic Energy Commission
1954
@scottnolan
By early 80s, headed off the rails…
@scottnolan
Valid concerns
WasteSafety Cost
@scottnolan
35 years later: same challenges?
WasteSafety Cost
@scottnolan
Investment criterion 1: solve all three
WasteSafety Cost
@scottnolan
Why won’t it lead to another
Fukushima?
How will this not worsen waste challenges?
Can it be cheaper than
coal and LNG?
The paths not taken
Novel moderators
Alternative fuels
Advanced coolants
Modular architectures
@scottnolan
Path dependencies matter
@scottnolan
A nuclear renaissance?
And many more…
@scottnolan
TAP’s answers to Criterion 1
WasteSafety Cost
@scottnolan
Investment criterion 2: barriers to entry
@scottnolan
Technology
Brand
Scale
Network effects
Investment criterion 2: where to focus
@scottnolan
Technology
Brand
Scale
Network effects
Investment criterion 3: go-to-market strategy
@scottnolan
Given the broader environment, how do you commercialize in an
acceptable time frame?
Nuclear innovation and regulation
@scottnolan
A history of important progress
@scottnolan
I. Energy
II. Nuclear
III. Regulation
IV. Politics
@scottnolan
Deep innovation across highly regulated industries
@scottnolan
The next wave of low-hanging fruit
@scottnolan
More changes to come
@scottnolan
Regulation as barrier to entry
Process head starts
High cost of entry
Operational complexity
Thought leadership
@scottnolan
I. Energy
II. Nuclear
III. Regulation
IV. Politics
@scottnolan
Mr. Smith tried hard
@scottnolan
How things go wrong
Have no clear goals
Take a reactionary approach
Rely on a trade org to represent you
Never spend time in DC
Rely on intros during a crisis to fix things
@scottnolan
How things go right
Have clear issues you want to win
Be proactive and outcome-focused
Have a portfolio of representation
Build relationships, awareness in DC
Drive the conversation before any crisis
@scottnolan
Not a zero sum game
Source: Wired, May 16 2015 @scottnolan
Working with the government for change
@scottnolan
Working together for change
@scottnolan
Thanks
@scottnolan