preliminary iam scenarios based on the rcp/ssp...

Preliminary IAM scenarios based on the RCP/SSP framework

Keywan Riahi International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

CCI/IA Workshop 31 July 2013

Snowmass, Colorado

The Parallel Process RCPs (Complete)

O’Neill & Schweizer, 2011 (based on Moss et al 2010)

CMIP5 (Complete)

Basic SSPs (Complete)

Under way

Socio-economic challenges for adaptation

Soci

o-ec

onom

ic

chal

leng

es fo

r miti

gatio

n

SSP Framework

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Socio- economic Pathway

Shared Socio- economic Pathway (SSP)

Low Challenges

High Challenges

Intermediate Challenges

Mitigation Challenges Dominate

Adaptation Challenges Dominate

SSP 1

SSP 2

SSP 3

SSP 4

SSP 5

Adapted from O’Neill (2012)

Purpose one: Organizing framework Purpose two: New shared pathways

Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)

Exploration of climate policy dimension Matrix architecture

IAMs: AIM (NIES) GCAM (PNNL) IMAGE (PBL) MESSAGE (IIASA) REMIND (PIK)

Key SSP elements (three main products + IAV variables)

SSP Storylines

Population (age, sex,

mortality, fertility, education)

Urbanization (national)

Economic development (regional/national)

Quantitative drivers

Energy (technology,

resources, etc)

Emissions (forcing,

temperature)

Land-use (productivity,

diets, etc)

IAM Scenarios

1

2 3

Iterative Process

SSP Process •  Conceptual framework and nature of basic SSPs established •  Quantification of key elements of basic SSPs has been completed •  Narratives were refined based on community review (paper needs

still to be submitted) •  Preliminary IAM scenarios ready for cross-model comparison and

revisions •  Fast-track IAV analyses based on SSPs coming out (ISI-MIP,

AgMIP, etc)

•  Work in progress: –  Continue vetting and development of SSP IAM scenarios –  Define SPAs for refined stabilization analyses –  Continue IAV analyses based on SSPs (multi year process)

SSP Driver Quantifications •  Country level projections:

– Population •  IIASA

– Urbanization •  NCAR

– Economy •  OECD •  IIASA •  PIK

•  Status: Available and in use by various IAM and IAV comparison projects

Global population for five SSPs

Lutz & KC

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

SSP4

SSP5

World 2050

SSP1 Pop=8673 Mio SSP3 Pop=10603 Mio

Lutz & KC

Common interpretation of the SSPs OECD – IIASA - PIK"

10

Frontier TFP growth Speed of convergence

SSP1: Sustainability Medium high High

SSP2: Middle of the road Medium Medium

SSP3: Fragmentation Low Low

SSP4: Inequality Medium Low Income: Low

Middle Income: Medium High Income: Medium

SSP5: Conventional development High High

N.B. Quantitative interpretations and methodology differ between models, illustrating the uncertainties in making economic projections

11

0

20

40

60

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100

120

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160

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

GDP pe

r cap

its ($/cap

-‐PP

P) SSP5

SSP3

SSP2

SSP4

SSP1

Common interpretation of the SSPs OECD – IIASA - PIK"

Extension of Storylines for IAM modeling (eg assumptions for energy demand)

•  Similar tables for tech change of supply, resource availability, and land-use change

Socio-economic challenges for adaptation

Soci

o-ec

onom

ic

chal

leng

es fo

r miti

gatio

n

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000


1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100E

J0

500

1000

1500

2000


1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000


1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000


Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Primary Energy

SSP3 IMAGE

SSP5 REMIND

SSP2 MESSAGE

SSP4 AIM SSP1

GCAM

RCP CO2 Emissions, World (Fossil fuels and Industry)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(GtC

O2)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

RCP 8.5

RCP 2.6

RCP 4.5

RCP 6.0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(GtC

O2)

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0

20

40

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100

120

140

160

AIM/CGE GCAM IMAGE MESSAGE-GLOBIOM REMIND-MAGPIE SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5

SSP5

SSP3

SSP2

SSP4, SSP1

CO2 Emissions, World (Fossil fuels and Industry)

Total Radiative Forcing

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Forc

ing

(W/m

2)

0

2

4

6

8

10


SSP5 = 9-9.5 W/m2

SSP3, SSP2

SSP4 SSP1


2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(GtC

O2)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2.6 W/m2

SSP range for short-lived forces wider than RCPs Example: SO2 emissions

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Sul

fur e

mis

sion

s (M

tSO

2)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

SSP5

SSP3

SSP2

SSP1

SSP4

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Sul

fur e

mis

sion

s (M

tSO

2)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

4.5 W/m2

Climate mitigation co-benefits across all SSPs Example: SO2 emissions

Little difference between SSPs for 2.6 W/m2 Example: SO2 emissions

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Sul

fur e

mis

sion

s (M

tSO

2)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2.6 W/m2

Land-use and Land-cover change Cropland development: RCPs vs SSPs

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Cro

plan

d, m

illio

n ha

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000


SSP IAM scenarios – next steps •  Improve consistency with storylines •  Harmonization across major variables (develop clear-cut

definitions) •  Define SPAs (climate policy dimension) •  Identify marker scenarios •  Organize hand-off to different communities and develop

guidelines for SSP users (eg, plausible RCP/SSP combinations)

•  Publication: Special Issue of Global Environmental Change

SSP database: https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb

International Committee On New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios (ICONICS)

http://www.isp.ucar.edu/iconics

Additional Slides

Inequality across models Global GINI

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

2085

2090

2095

2100

IIASA

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

SSP4

SSP5

Country Groupings •  For defining these scenarios we distinguish

among three groups of countries: •  High Fertility Countries (HiFert): Countries

with current level of fertility less than 2.9 children per woman (2005-2010).

•  Low Fertility Countries (LoFert) Countries with current level of fertility less than or equal to 2.9 not belonging to Rich OECD countries (see below)

•  High Income-OECD Countries (Rich-OECD) As per the definition of World Bank.

Education Scenarios •  The fast track (FT) scenario is extremely ambitious; it assumes that

all countries expand their school systems at the fastest possible rate, which would be comparable with best performers in the past such as Singapore and South Korea .

•  The global education trend (GET) scenario is more moderately optimistic and assumes that countries will follow the average path of school expansion that other countries already somewhat further advanced in this process have experienced.

•  The constant enrollment rate (CER) scenario assumes that countries only keep the proportions of cohorts attending school constant at current levels.

•  The most pessimistic scenario, constant enrollment numbers (CEN), assumes that no more schools at all are being built and that the absolute number of students is kept constant, which under conditions of population growth means declining enrollment rates.

PEI / CI Improvement SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5

AIM/CGe GCAM IMAGE MESSAGE-‐GLOBIOM REMIND-‐MAGPIE

1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

carbon intensity improvement

(prim

ary) ene

rgy intensity

improvem

ent

1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

carbon intensity improvement

(prim

ary) ene

rgy intensity

improvem

ent

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5

AIM/CGe GCAM IMAGE MESSAGE-‐GLOBIOM REMIND-‐MAGPIE

PEI / CI Improvement

Global Primary Energy -‐ SSP5 REMIND-‐MAGPIE

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Global Primary Energy -‐ IMAGE SSP3

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000


Global Primary Energy -‐ AIM/CGE SSP4-‐Ref-‐SPA0-‐V1

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000


Global Primary Energy - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2-Ref-SPA0-V1

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000


1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000


Global Primary Energy – SSP1 GCAM

0

2E+14

4E+14

6E+14

8E+14

1E+15

1.2E+15

1.4E+15

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

GDP: World (OECD projection)

SSP1new SSP2new SSP3new SSP4new SSP5new

Global GDP levels by scenario (OECD)

Source: preliminary SSP database

SSP5>SSP1>SSP2>SSP4>SSP3

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

SSP -‐ Per Capita GDP (billion US$2005PPP / million people)

SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ World SSP2 -‐ IIASA -‐ WorldSSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ World SSP2 -‐ PIK -‐ WorldSSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World SSP2 -‐ OECD -‐ World

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100



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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100



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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100



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160

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100



Global GDP levels by scenario

Source: preliminary SSP database 36

Global Primary Energy – SSP2 AIM

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000


Population assumptions consistent with SSP Storylines

Low challenges for adaptation

High challenges for adaptation

China - population for five SSPs

Lutz & KC

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

SSP4

SSP5

Urbanization Projection Results

0

10

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30

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50

60

70

80

90

100

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

% u

rban

pop

ulat

ion

Year

Western Europe

Latin America

China

Eastern Africa

SSP1

Fast

SSP2

Central

SSP3

Slow

SSP4

Fast/Central

SSP5

Fast

Source: O’Neill & Jiang, NCAR


2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(GtC

O2)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

4.5 W/m2

preliminary iam scenarios based on the rcp/ssp...

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