predictors of success in distance education courses 2000-01 to 2004-05 mohamed eisa & dale...

Predictors of Success in

Distance Education Courses

2000-01 to 2004-05

Mohamed Eisa & Dale Craig

Diablo Valley College

Introduction

• Offering courses in flexible formats, where learning can take place anytime and anywhere, is one of the hallmarks of the present information age. This transformation was necessary to meet the growing needs of people with jobs and family responsibilities.

Introduction

• In the past five years, online course offerings at Diablo Valley College witnessed a phenomenal expansion that far exceeds the overall enrollment growth during this period. It is anticipated that such expansion will continue unabated for several years to come.

Introduction This study will address the the following issues

related to online courses:

• Enrollment trends• Demographic profile of students• Academic productivity • Academic performance of students• Predictors of success in online courses• Recommendations for improvement

Methodology

Three methodologies are used in this study:

• Analysis of data from the MIS Datatel system related to student enrollment, demographics, productivity, and academic performance

• Discussion of the underlying differences between online and face-to-face courses through focus groups that include faculty, staff, and students

• Literature review

Enrollment Trends

Enrollment in online courses is measured in several ways including:

• Enrollment by full-time equivalent students (FTES)• Enrollment by seat count • Enrollment by disciplines and courses • Enrollment by course duration • Enrollment by head count

Enrollment by Full-Time Equivalent Students (FTES)

• DVC’s enrollment in distance education courses increased significantly over the past five years, with every term setting a new record that surpassed that of the previous one.

• In 2004-05, online courses generated 774 FTES, accounting for 4.4% of the total FTES for the year. In effect, online courses are gradually becoming the source of a modest portion of the revenue generated by the college.

Enrollment by Full-Time Equivalent Students (FTES)

• On a term-by-term basis, summer terms had a twenty- fold increase, fall terms a 270% increase, and spring terms a 231% increase over five years.

• The annual FTES (774) in 2004-05 was more than four times as much as that (184) of 2000-01. With the convenience of online courses and increasing technological sophistication of students, this mode of course delivery will continue to expand in future years.

DVC Enrollment by FTES2000-01 to 2004-05

184.5303.5

394.9

596.1

774.2

0

200

400

600

800

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

Annual FTES

Enrollment by Seat Count

• Summer enrollments increased twelve-fold in five years, fall enrollments by 250%, and spring enrollments by 230%. Furthermore, there have been no dips or setbacks in enrollment, only steady increases.

• The spring 2005 seat count enrollment in online

courses was 4.7% of DVC’s total seat count enrollment (2,751 out of 58,968), compared to only 1.4% in Spring 2001 (834 out of 61,211).

Enrollment by Seat Count

• The annual online share rose from 1.1% to 4.4%. Although distance education represents a relatively smaller portion of the overall course offerings at the college, it is increasingly becoming more significant; and planning for the college needs to take its steady growth into account.

Online Enrollment as a Percent of Total Seat Count, 2000-01 to 2004-05

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Online Share 1.1% 1.6% 1.9% 3.1% 4.4%

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

Enrollment by Discipline

• Academic disciplines are organized on the basis of California Community Colleges Taxonomy of Program (TOP). TOP is a classification system that includes 24 disciplines and over 200 sub-disciplines.

• The college as a whole offers courses in 21 of the 24 disciplines. No programs are offered in law, military studies, or commercial services.

• Online course offerings are limited to only 14 of the 21 broad disciplines. The college does not offer online instruction in agriculture, architecture, environmental sciece, biological science, health, family&consumer sciences, and psychology.

Enrollment by Discipline

• The top five disciplines in terms of online course enrollment in the past five years include the following:

Humanities (Letters)Business and ManagementMathematicsInformation TechnologySocial Sciences

Enrollment by Discipline2000-01 to 2004-05

TOP Code Discipline 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 Total

05 Business Management 234 318 464 1,203 1,802 4,02106 Media and Communication 0 0 0 53 46 9907 Information Technology 192 404 536 465 632 2,22908 Education 0 0 0 18 33 5109 Engineering and Industrial Tech. 36 39 37 48 47 20710 Fine and Applied Arts 0 0 0 72 211 28311 Foreign Language 0 24 56 48 11 13915 Humanities (Letters) 645 842 793 936 934 4,15016 Library Science 90 57 43 122 281 59317 Mathematics 173 407 646 824 773 2,82319 Physical Sciences 88 164 116 139 136 64321 Public and Protective Services 0 0 0 0 299 29922 Social Sciences 67 88 217 484 667 1,52349 Interdisciplinary Studies 0 36 0 0 41 77

DVC Total 1,525 2,379 2,908 4,412 5,913 17,137

Enrollment by Sub-Discipline

• Sub-disciplines are used to categorize areas of study that are narrower than the broad disciplines. The TOP code system has more than 200 sub-disciplines.

• The college as a whole offers courses in almost 100 sub-disciplines.

• In the past five years, DVC offered online courses in only 24 sub-disciplines.

Enrollment by Sub-Discipline

• The top five sub-disciplines in terms of enrollment in online courses are as follows:

EnglishMathematicsAccountingBusinessComputer Information Systems

Enrollment in the Top Ten Online Sub-Disciplines, 2000-01 to 2004-05

Enrollment in the Top Ten Online Sub-Disciplines

2,823

1,963

1,151840

468 459

1,078

4,150

1,569

643

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Enrollment by Course Duration• An average of 75% of online sections are 18 weeks in

duration. No other type of duration comes close in section numbers or enrollment to 18 weeks, which had a total of 445 sections and 12,850 student over five years.

• The next largest totals were 6-week classes with 1,225 students and 42 sections, or 7.1% of total enrollment in five years.

• Courses offered for 9 weeks had 1,187 students and 44 sections or 6.9% of the total enrollment over five years.

National Distance Education Enrollments

• National Data for 2000-01 are used for comparison since information for the most recent years is not available.

• There was 255% growth in distance education course enrollments in public U.S. 2-year colleges over a six-year period (1994-95 to 2000-01)

Year Enrollments1994-95 414,1601997-98 712,1702000-01 1,472,000

National Distance Education Enrollments in 2000-2001

All Title IV Institutions No. %Total number of enrollments 3,077,000 100%College-level, credit-granting, undergraduate courses enrollments 2,350,000 76.4%

All Public 2- and 4-Year No. %Total number of enrollments 2,417,000 100%College-level, credit-granting, undergraduate course enrollments 2,001,000 82.8%

All Public 2-Year No. %Total number of enrollments 1,472,000 100%College-level, credit-granting, undergraduate course enrollments 1,435,000 97.5%

DISTANCE EDUCATION ENROLLMENTS

Demographic Profile

• The demographic profile of online students includes the following:

GenderEthnicityAgeEducational GoalsGeographical Location (Zip Codes)

Gender of Online Students• Women accounted for 62.4% of online students in

fall 2004, compared to 51.5% among all DVC students.

• Men accounted for only 36.4% of online students, compared to 45.7% among all DVC students. Considerably more women than men are online students.

• From fall 2000 to fall 2004, enrollment of men in

online courses increased by 1.7%, while the enrollment of women dropped by 2.3%.

Gender of Students in Online Courses Fall Terms: 2000 to 2004

Online Student Gender

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

FA00 34.7% 64.7% 0.6%

FA01 33.7% 64.4% 1.9%

FA02 34.6% 63.6% 1.8%

FA03 31.6% 66.0% 2.3%

FA04 36.4% 62.4% 1.1%

Male Female Unknown

Ethnicity of Online Students• In fall 2004, White students accounted for 53.0% of

the enrollment in online courses, compared to 50.2% in the overall population at DVC. Online enrollment for this group declined by 4.0% in five years.

• Asian/Pacific Islander students represented 18.1% of online enrollment, compared to 18.7% at the college. Online enrollment of this group increased by 3.4% in five years.

• Online enrollment of Hispanic students stood at

10.2% of the total online enrollment, compared to 12.3% at the college. Online enrollment of this group increased by 1.7% in five years.

Ethnicity of Online Students• African American students accounted for 5.8% of

online enrollment in fall 2004, compared to a similar percentage at the college. Online enrollment of this group declined by 1.8% in five years.

• The remaining ethnic catagories (Native Americans, Other Non-White, and Unknown had similar breakdowns for online courses and for the college as a whole.

• In summary, there are no significant ethnic differences between the students enrolled in online courses and the general student body at DVC.

Ethnicity of Online Students Fall Terms: 2000 to 2004

Online Student Ethnicity

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

FA00 7.6% 14.7% 8.5% 1.7% 3.2% 57.0% 7.4%

FA01 5.3% 16.5% 8.3% 0.5% 4.1% 58.0% 7.3%

FA02 5.1% 16.1% 8.6% 0.4% 3.0% 57.5% 9.3%

FA03 6.1% 16.4% 9.5% 0.7% 3.0% 53.2% 11.0%

FA04 5.8% 18.1% 10.2% 1.0% 3.1% 53.0% 8.8%

African-Am Asian/P acific Isl Hispanic Native Am Other Non-Wh White Unknown

Age of Online Students • Students at the age of 19 or younger accounted for 18% of

the enrollment in online courses, compared to 32% at the college.Online enrollment for this group increased sharply from 1% to 18% in five years.

• Another 56% of online students were at the age of 20 to 29 years, compared with 42% of all DVC students. Online enrollment for this group declined slightly by 1% in 5 years.

• Students at the age of 30 to 49 represented 21% of online enrollment, compared to 17% at the college. Online enrollment of this group declined sharply by 13% in 5 years.

Age of Online Students

• Students at the age of 50 years and older represented 5% of online enrollment, compared to 8% at the college. Online enrollment of this group declined by 3% in 5 years.

• In summary, students in their 20s, 30s, and 40s enroll

in large numbers and proportions in online courses (77%, compared to 60% at the college). Young students below 20 years and older students of 50+ years prefer face-to-face over online courses.

Age of Online StudentsFall Terms: 2000 to 2004

Online Age

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

FA00 0.7% 39.7% 17.4% 11.9% 8.7% 13.5% 8.0%

FA01 6.8% 45.1% 15.6% 7.8% 6.3% 12.3% 6.1%

FA02 12.7% 36.4% 15.5% 9.1% 6.6% 12.2% 7.6%

FA03 12.0% 39.7% 15.6% 10.2% 6.5% 10.1% 5.8%

FA04 18.0% 39.7% 16.1% 6.8% 5.4% 9.2% 4.9%

19 or Younger 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-49 50 and Over

Educational Goals of Online Students

• A significant portion of online students (61.1%) have a transfer goal, compared to 52.1% at DVC.

• The proportion of online students with vocational goals (10.2%) was similar to that of DVC as a whole (10.7%)

• Those with personal or lifelong learning goals represented 3.6% of online enrollment, compared to 7.0% at DVC.

• A relatively larger segment of online students (14.0%) is undecided. This percentage is slightly below that of the college as a whole (17.8%). The proportion of undecided has declined sharply since fall 2000.

Educational Goals of Online and DVC Students, Fall 2000 and Spring 2005

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

FA00 Online 44.0% 7.2% 6.7% 2.6% 1.3% 38.2%

FA00 DVC 33.7% 7.2% 9.2% 6.0% 2.3% 41.6%

SP05 Online 61.1% 7.9% 10.2% 3.6% 3.2% 14.0%

SP05 DVC 52.1% 7.8% 10.7% 7.0% 4.6% 17.8%

TransferDegree/Certif ic

ateVocational

CareerPersonal

Basic Skills/H.School

Undecided

Geographical Distribution of Online Students

• In fall 2004, 47% of online students lived in North Central Contra Costa County, compared to 51% for DVC as a whole.

• Online students who lived in the southern, eastern, or western parts of the county had a similar percentage to those for DVC as a whole.

• There were a slightly higher percentage of online students from Alameda, Solano and other counties, compared to that of DVC as a whole.

• In general, the geographical distribution of online students is similar to that of DVC as a whole. However, the longer the distance to the college campus, the higher the likelihood for enrollment in online courses. Geographical expansion of online course offerings would be suitable for the areas located further away from the campus.

Geographical Distribution of Online and DVC Students, Fall 2004

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

DVC 51.2% 12.5% 11.9% 6.7% 8.2% 6.3% 3.3%

Online 46.7% 13.2% 11.8% 6.6% 9.6% 7.2% 4.9%

North Central

South Central

East County

West County

Alameda Solano Other

• Productivity is the ratio of weekly student contact hours (WSCH) to full-time equivalent faculty (FTEF), or WSCH/FTEF. Although there is no standard number for productivity, a ratio of 525 WSCH/FTEF is considered desirable.

• The five-year average productivity of online courses was 437, compared to 501 for DVC as a whole.

• Online productivity grew from 424 in fall 2000 to 482 in spring 2005, while DVC’s productivity dropped from 508 to 472 during the same period. Online courses are becoming more productive.

.

Productivity of Online Courses (WSCH/FTEF)

Academic Load for Online and DVC 2000 to 2005 WSCH/FTEF: Online and DVC

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

Online 315.7 423.6 429.2 365.0 447.8 457.6 390.0 522.8 447.3 438.9 464.8 441.3 477.4 448.4 481.5

Diablo Valley College 547.1 508.2 492.1 545.2 497.2 488.5 522.7 500.9 486 521 503.9 482.9 461.4 482.2 472.3

SU00 FA00 SP 01 SU01 FA01 SP 02 SU02 FA02 SP 03 SU03 FA03 SP 04 SU04 FA04 SP 05

Average Class Size

• For online students, the average class size stood at 28.5 student per class over five years, compared to 27.4 for DVC students as a whole.

• The average class size for the online program was slightly higher than that of DVC as a whole.

Average Class Size for Online and DVC2000 to 2005

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

Online 20.5 25.4 30.9 36.7 28.3 30.7 27.4 31.0 27.3 31.1 27.4 27.1 28.9 25.9 30.9

DVC 28.4 27.3 27.4 29.9 27.4 27.5 29.0 27.2 27.2 28.0 28.1 27.3 25.5 27.0 27.0

SU00 FA00 SP01 SU01 FA01 SP02 SU02 FA02 SP03 SU03 FA03 SP04 SU04 FA04 SP05

Academic Performance of Online Students: Success Rates

• Two measures are used to gauge student academic performance: course success and course retention rates. A course success rate is the ratio of the number of grades of A, B, C, and CR over all grades assigned in different courses, including W. On the other hand, a course retention rate is the ratio of the number of all grades except W over all grades.

• The average success rate for students enrolled in online courses stood at 55.5%, compared to 70.0% for DVC as a whole, a gap of 14.5%.

• The range of success rates for online courses was between 49.0% and 61.6%, compared to a range of 67.7% and 72.5% for all DVC students. The distribution of the success rates for online courses was more dispersed, compared to DVC as a whole.

Academic Performance of Online Students: Retention Rates

• During the same five-year period, the average retention rate for online courses was 70.5%, compared to 80.7% for DVC as a whole, a gap of 10.2%.

• The range of retention rates for online courses fell between 59.7% and 76.5%, compared to a range of 77.3% to 83.6% for DVC as a whole. A higher rate of dispersion was evident in online courses.

• Online students had a much higher average withdrawal rate (29.5%) than DVC students as a whole (19.3%). The withdrawal rates for online students should be reduced. The college needs to discern the reasons for the high rate of withdrawals, and initiate strong efforts to reduce them.

Success Rates for Online and DVC Students, Fall 2000 to Spring 2005

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Online 61.6% 51.3% 49.0% 54.2% 52.3% 58.7% 54.0% 55.5% 57.9% 57.1%

DVC 67.7% 68.7% 68.1% 69.8% 70.4% 72.5% 71.0% 71.9% 70.4% 70.9%

Fall 2000

Spring 2001

Fall 2001

Spring 2002

Fall 2002

Spring 2003

Fall 2003

Spring 2004

Fall 2004

Spring 2005

Retention Rates for Online and DVC Students, Fall 2000 to Spring 2005

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Online 71.9% 61.6% 59.7% 66.6% 66.7% 74.8% 68.7% 68.7% 75.2% 76.5%

DVC 77.8% 77.5% 77.3% 81.1% 81.3% 83.6% 83.1% 82.4% 82.9% 82.0%

Fall 2000

Spring 2001

Fall 2001

Spring 2002

Fall 2002

Spring 2003

Fall 2003

Spring 2004

Fall 2004

Spring 2005

Predictors of Success in Online Courses

• Four major factors may have impacted the academic performance of students enrolled in online courses, including:

– The discipline– The teacher– The student– The medium

• We will examine the data first, followed by a summary of the focus group discussion.

Predictors of Success in Online Courses

• Analysis of the data focuses on the differences in course success and retention rates of online and non-online courses by the following factors: course load, gender, age, and ethnicity.

• By focusing on each of these factors, we discovered some significant differences that should be anayzed and studied further. Through focus group discussion, we were able to explain some of these differences and provide recommendations for improvement.

Success Rates by Course Load Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

• Online students carrying a full-time load of 12 or more units had a success rate of 59.5%, compared to 75.4% for non-online students, a gap of 15.9%. This group had the highest average success rates for both online and non-online courses.

• Online students carrying less than 6 units each term had an average success rate of 57.5%, compared to 72.6% for non-online courses, a gap of 15.1%.

• These two groups have some similarities, where the success rates for online students in both groups are not far apart. The same observation may be made about non-online courses.


• Online students carrying 6 to less than 12 units had an average success rate of 51.3%, compared to 64.0% for non-online students, a difference of 12.6%. This was the smallest gap among the three groups organized by unit load. However, this group had the lowest success rates for both online and non-online courses.

• Further study of the student profiles for all three groups will be helpful in enhancing our understanding of the differences in success rates.


Total Succ Succ Rate Total Succ Succ Rate< 6 Units 2,796 1,607 57.5% 67,926 49,311 72.6% -15.1%6-<12 3,861 1,982 51.3% 100,597 64,350 64.0% -12.6%12+ 4,661 2,773 59.5% 192,296 145,007 75.4% -15.9%Total 11,318 6,362 56.2% 360,819 258,668 71.7% -15.5%

Group Totals and Average Success RatesCourse Load

Online Non-OnlineDifference

Retention Rates by Course Load Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

• The average difference in retention rates between online and non-online students stood at 10.5%. However, the difference among students with a full course load is the greatest (11.6%).

• The retention rates of both online and non-online students are highest when they are carrying a full-time course load (12 or more units) or if they carry under 6 units. Lowest are the rates for students who are carrying 6 to less than 12 units (68.8% and 77.5% respectively).

• Once again, further study of the profile of students in all groups would be helpful in understanding the differences in retention rates among the groups and between online and non-online students.

Retention Rates by Course Load Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

Total Ret Ret Rate Total Ret Ret Rate< 6 Units 2,796 2,082 74.5% 67,926 56,460 83.1% -8.7%6-<12 3,861 2,655 68.8% 100,597 77,949 77.5% -8.7%12+ 4,661 3,451 74.0% 192,296 164,608 85.6% -11.6%Total 11,318 8,188 72.3% 360,819 299,017 82.9% -10.5%

Difference

Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

TermCourse Load

Online Non-Online

Success Rates by GenderFall 2002 to Spring 2005

• The average six-term success rate for female online students was significantly lower (57.6%) that that of non-online female students (73.9%). There was a wide gap of 16.3% among the two groups.

• Similarly, the success rate for online male students (53.4%) was also significantly below that of non-online males (69.4%). The difference between the average success rates for the two groups was 16.0%.

• In summary, while women outperform men among both online and non-online courses, both genders fared better when taking face-to-face courses on campus.

Success Rates by Gender Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

Total Succ Succ Rate Total Succ Succ RateMen 3,926 2,098 53.4% 170,757 118,515 69.4% -16.0%Women 7,178 4,132 57.6% 181,467 134,048 73.9% -16.3%Unknown 214 132 61.7% 8,595 6,105 71.0% -9.3%Total 11,318 6,362 56.2% 360,819 258,668 71.7% -15.5%

Group Totals and Average Success Rates

GenderOnline Non-Online

Difference

Retention Rates by Gender Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

• Women outperform men among both online and non-online courses with respect to retention rates.

• The average female online retention rate was lower (73.2%) than that of non-online female students (83.6%), by 10.4%

• For men, the gap was slightly wider between online and non-online courses, and it stood at 11.4% in favor of non-online courses.

Retention Rates by Gender Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

Total Retention Ret Rate Total Retention Ret RateMen 3,926 2,773 70.6% 170,757 140,039 82.0% -11.4%Women 7,178 5,257 73.2% 181,467 151,773 83.6% -10.4%Unknown 214 158 73.8% 8,595 7,205 83.8% -10.0%Total 11,318 8,188 72.3% 360,819 299,017 82.9% -10.5%

Difference


Term GenderOnline Non-Online

Success Rates by Age Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

• Students who are 50 years and over have the highest average success rate of 62.8% among online students, but this is in comparison to the 82.5% success rate which this group enjoys among non-online students, a large gap of 19.7%.

• The next highest average success rates among both online and

non-online students were those of students in the 25 to 49 age group (58.1% compared to 73.6%, a gap of 15.5%).

• The lowest success rate among both online and non-online students was among those under 25 years, but the success rates differ markedly here as well (54.0% compared to 70.2%, a 16.2% difference).

Success Rate by Age Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

Total Succ Succ Rate Total Succ Succ Rate< 25 5,920 3,197 54.0% 253,109 177,611 70.2% -16.2%25-49 4,740 2,752 58.1% 87,305 64,232 73.6% -15.5%50+ 658 413 62.8% 20,405 16,825 82.5% -19.7%Total 11,318 6,362 56.2% 360,819 258,668 71.7% -15.5%

Group Totals and Average Success Rates

AgeOnline Non-Online

Difference

Retention Rates by Age Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

Total Retention Ret Rate Total Retention Ret Rate< 25 5,920 4,186 70.7% 253,109 208,651 82.4% -11.7%25-49 4,740 3,482 73.5% 87,305 72,305 82.8% -9.4%50+ 658 520 79.0% 20,405 18,061 88.5% -9.5%Total 11,318 8,188 72.3% 360,819 299,017 82.9% -10.5%

Difference


Term AgeOnline Non-Online

Success Rates by EthnicityFall 2002 to Spring 2005

• The top-performing ethnic group among online students was Asians/Pacific-Islanders, with an average success rate of 61.0%, a difference of 10.4% when that is compared with the success rate of non-online students (71.5%).

• Online White students had a success rate of 57.1%, compared to that of non-online White students at 73.9%, a gap of 16.8%.

Success Rates by Ethnicity Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

• Online Hispanic students had a 45.7% success rate, compared to a 65.6% rate for non-online students, a gap of 19.9%.

• Online African-American students had a success rate of 32.9%, compared to 56.0% for non-online students, a gap of 23.1%, the largest gap among the four ethnic groups.


• The low success rates for African American and Hispanic students are significantly low. Every effort should be made to improve the success rates for these two groups, regardless of the method of instructional delivery.


*The Ethnic categories Native American, Other Non-White, and Unknown were grouped as Other. "Asian" includes Asian, Filipino and Pacific Islander

Total Succ Succ Rate Total Succ Succ RateAfr-Amer 674 222 32.9% 19,022 10,654 56.0% -23.1%Asian 2,050 1,251 61.0% 68,321 48,818 71.5% -10.4%Hispanic 1,068 488 45.7% 41,521 27,222 65.6% -19.9%White 6,016 3,433 57.1% 172,914 127,740 73.9% -16.8%Other 1,510 968 64.1% 59,041 44,234 74.9% -10.8%Total 11,318 6,362 56.2% 360,819 258,668 71.7% -15.5%

Fall 2002 - Spring 2005 Group Totals and Average Success Rates

Ethnicity*Online Non-Online

Difference

Retention Rates by Ethnicity Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

• The top-performing ethnic group among online students were the Asians/Pacific-Islanders, with a 76.2% average retention rate; however, this rate was 7.1% below that of Asian non-online students (83.2%).

• Online White students had a retention rate of 72.2%, compared to that of non-online students (85.0%), a gap of 12.7%.

Retention Rates by EthnicityFall 2002 to Spring 2005

• Online Hispanic students had a retention rate of 64.5%, compared to 79.7% among non-online students, for a difference of 15.2% (the largest difference).

• Online African-American students had a retention rate of 60.8%,compared to 75.0% for non-online students, a gap of 14.1%.

• It is imperative that the retention rates for Hispanic and African-American students be improved, and especially among online students.

Retention Rates by Ethnicity Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

*The Ethnic categories Native American, Other Non-White, and Unknown were grouped as Other. "Asian" includes Asian, Filipino and Pacific Islander

Total Retention Ret Rate Total Retention Ret RateAfr-Amer 674 410 60.8% 19,022 14,261 75.0% -14.1%Asian 2,050 1,562 76.2% 68,321 56,874 83.2% -7.1%Hispanic 1,068 689 64.5% 41,521 33,100 79.7% -15.2%White 6,016 4,345 72.2% 172,914 146,898 85.0% -12.7%Other 1,510 1,182 78.3% 59,041 47,884 81.1% -2.8%Total 11,318 8,188 72.3% 360,819 299,017 82.9% -10.5%

Fall 2002 To Spring 2005

Term Ethnicity*Online Non-Online

Difference

Overall Assessment and Recommendations

• Distance education courses have become an increasingly popular mode of instruction and learning at community colleges over the past few years, and there will be even greater increases in the number of distance education courses and in online enrollment in future years.

• Enrollment in distance education courses could be an important factor in the rescue and reversal of declining enrollment rates at some California community colleges.


• At Diablo Valley College over the past five years, online course offerings expanded phenomenally, exceeding by far the overall enrollment growth during this period. Online courses accounted for 4.4% of the total FTES at DVC in 2004-05, compared to only 1.1%, five years earlier. This trend tracks similar trends in the state and in the nation as a whole.


• The top five online courses were Freshman English, Critical Thinking, Elementary Algebra, Intermediate Algebra, and Elementary Statistics. Courses were also offered in Business, Information Technology, and Social sciences. There were no course offerings in Biology, Health, or Chemistry.

• Women accounted for more than 62% of DVC’s online course enrollments in fall 2004, compared with 51% among overall students.


• Ethnicity proportions were similar to those of the student body as a whole, with White students making up the largest percentage, followed by Asians, Hispanics, and African Americans.

• The age distribution of online students was different from that of the college as a whole. There were 12% less online students in the 19 years or younger age group, and 6% more in the 25-29 age group. Students in their 20s made up the majority (56%) of online learners.


• The majority (55%) of online students had a goal of transfer to a 4-year institution. A significant percentage (21%) was undecided.

• Almost 75% of the online courses were offered for the duration of 18 weeks each term. Fewer courses were offered in shorter time spans of six or nine weeks.


• Four out of the seven geographic areas from which DVC students come experienced significant online growth rates (higher than 200%).

• Solano County, the furthest distant from DVC, had the greatest growth rate for online students (250%).

• The greatest growth in enrollment numbers (552) over five fall terms was in North Contra Costa County, the area closest to DVC


• The sobering elements among all this good news were online students’ drop-out rate and success rate, by comparison with the college as a whole.

• Online students had a much higher average drop rate (30%) than DVC students as a whole (19%) over five years.

• Online students’ success and retention rates are at considerably lower levels than those for DVC as a whole.


• The gap in success rates was more than 15 percentage points and the gap in retention rates was more than 10 percentage points.

• To understand how to raise the success and retention rates of online students and reduce the drop rate, we have to understand which students are more likely to succeed in distance education courses.


• In order to understand why online students’ success and retention rates are consistently lower than those of non-online students, the success and retention rates of these two distinct groups were compared by course load, gender, age and ethnicity in order to discover ways to ameliorate problems and create an environment of higher performance possibilities for online students.

• Predictors of success among online students need to be taken into account as online course curricula are planned.


• Disciplines such as Administration of Justice, Geography and English have seen comparatively high success rates among online students, whereas Social Sciences, Computer Information Systems, and Business Management have seen relatively lower success rates among online students.

• Faculty level of training and experience in teaching online courses should be examined to determine whether or not these factors impact student performance in online courses.


• Online courses which seem to result in student academic performance problems should be improved, and the reasons for lower success rates should be examined further.

• Hybrid courses, which introduce some face-to-face class time each week, may be substituted for purely online courses where success rates are significantly low.


• Regardless of the course load, students tend to succeed at relatively higher levels when they enroll in face-to-face courses, compared to online courses.

• Students who carry a medium load of 6 to 12 units have a higher risk of failure and withdrawal in both online and non-online courses. The profile of these students should be studied further and possibly in combination with other variables such as gender, age, or ethnicity.


• Counselors should inform male students that they could have success rates which are 16.0% higher if they enroll in non-online courses as compared with online, and women could be informed that their difference is 16.3%.

• The age group that most needs to receive information about the differing success rates in online and non-online courses is students who are less than 25 years old. They have an online success rate of 54.0% and could possibly be enjoying a success rate of 70.2% if they enrolled in non-online courses instead.


• African-American and Hispanic students have a signifcantly higher risk of failure in online courses, compared to other ethnic groups. The gap in success and retention rates is unacceptable.

• Apparently, these students may need individualized attention. They may not be as technologically savvy or they may not have adequate and convenient access to technology resources. Additional research will be needed to study these two groups further.


• As we improve access for students who are at a distance from Diablo Valley College or enrolling in online courses for other reasons, we need to protect their chances of success as well.

• Counselors and advisers need to inform students of the performance risks in online instruction, and guide students who would be most at risk in the direction of hybrid or conventional classroom instruction.

Conditions for Success in Distance Education Courses

• The focus group discussion highlighted the important factors that may contribute to improving student success and retention in online courses. The focus group consisted of faculty members who were teaching online courses, technology and research staff, and students enrolled in online courses. The following recommendations from this group and the literature review:


Recognize the pedagogical differences among disciplines and courses.

Invest in instructional development and training for the faculty. Trained faculty have the greatest positive impact on student engagement.

Establish a single point of contact for online courses at the college.

Provide a full range of online services, including selecting proximate sites for testing.


Use attractive visuals for presentations.Establish frequent communication with

students.Provide timely, meaningful, and personalized

feedback.Assess student learning outcomes in online

courses on a regular and systematic basis.


Create a highly-structured online environment to keep the learner focused.

Ensure that students are technologically ready for online courses.

Ensure that students are self-directed and have solid time management skills.

Future Research• Additional research will be needed to understand the

underlying causes of the differences in the academic performance between online and non-online courses. Some of the areas that require further research and inquiry include the following:

Study the success and retention rates of online students using multiple variables.

Use more focus groups, particularly with a mix of students who successfully completed or did not complete online courses.

Future Research

Examine the impact of student overall GPA as a variable.

Study online versus non-online courses within the constraint of courses which have both modes.

Study online and non-online courses taught by the same instructor in the same term.

Study the underlying causes for the gap in academic performance among certain ethnic groups.

Thank you!

This is a work in progress and we welcome your

comments.

predictors of success in distance education courses 2000-01 to 2004-05 mohamed eisa & dale...

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